THREAD CLOSED!!! Ask Rande 5000+: USE NEW THREAD
- Kirk
- Rande
- FCSTECKIII
- Rande
- Kirk
- EricViesturs
- Rande
- Karin_
- Rande
- Rande
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» Kirk - Key Kudlow Comments
Key Kudlow CommentsIf gold were rising and the dollar were weakening, that would signal an excess liquidity position. And Fed tightening would be appropriate. But year-to-date, the monetary base has been drained at a 13-percent annual rate. So the Fed has removed the excess liquidity it injected last year in the run-up to Y2K.
It also suggests that whatever small traces of inflation that may occur from last year's excess liquidity, the inflation outlook for the year ahead is benign. Meaning, no more than 2 percent, and quite possibly lower.
He concludes that, "We are probably very close to the bottom in unemployment and the peak in the economy."
Good stuff!
I sure hope he is right... corrections are NO FUN!
WAGS!
Rande... any idea when the excess liquidity would be completely removed?
-- posted by Kirk
» FCSTECKIII - Gold
Having a small percentage in Gold and Silver, Ican assure you that Gold continues to 'struggle.'
If one still holds on to the belief that the POG
is indexed to inflation (as I still believe),
then I can honestly tell you that based on the
current POG inflation appears to be well under
control ...
-- posted by FCSTECKIII
» Rande - Fred,
Fred,I do believe that the dollar and the POG are still about the best indicators of inflationary expectations around (with all due respect to the rocket scientists at FIBRE and ECRI -- I trust the markets more than I do the eggheads in this case) and agree that these indicators aren't flashing any warnings.
<img src=http://www.internetcount.com/1867857677.cgif width=5 height=5>
-- posted by Rande
» EricViesturs - Comment on Kudlow Conclusion
Kudlow is correct when he says:The basic point here is a simple one: Actual inflation is considerably less than reported inflation.
However, he makes this point in the middle of a discussion about new/old economy issues, and one might get the impression that his conclusion is:
- news
- dependent on the internet/new economy
In fact, it is well-known that the traditional measures overstate inflation, and have done so for many years.
-- posted by EricViesturs
» Rande - Eric,
Eric,Yes, and maybe even by more so than previously thought.
<img src=http://www.internetcount.com/1867857677.cgif width=5 height=5>
-- posted by Rande
» Karin_ - QLGC & ANCR
Rande why would QLGC bother to buy ANCR?Ancor hasn't posted a profit, but its stock has been one of the biggest movers among Twin Cities firms. Its shares soared more than 1,600 percent in 1999 but has lost nearly 60 percent of its value from its intraday high of $94.13 on Dec. 7. Despite the decline, CEO Ken Hendrickson said the merger was not shareholder-driven and he had not been seeking a buyer for the company.
QLGC is dropping like a rock, and I do not like it.-
-- posted by Karin_
» Rande - Karin,
Karin,You’re not alone with such questions. This from the 5/9/00 LA Times:
Chip maker QLogic Corp. said Monday that it plans to buy a fellow maker of equipment for data storage networks in a stock swap initially valued at $ 1.7 billion, but the news sent its shares--and the value of the deal--tumbling 25%.
The Aliso Viejo company said it will acquire Ancor Communications Inc., of Eden Prairie, Minn., to help it expand into a new area of the rapidly growing market for fibre-channel communications.
But Wall Street battered QLogic's stock. Analysts said investors questioned the addition of a money-losing company, the impact on individual shareholder stakes and, most worrisome, the likelihood that the deal would erode QLogic's relationship with a major ally.
By the end of the day, QLogic's shares had fallen $ 25.19 a share to $ 74.75, putting the value of the acquisition at $ 1.3 billion.
The deal puts QLogic squarely in competition with Brocade Communications Systems Inc., a San Jose company that controls about 90% of the market for so-called fibre-channel switches.
The two companies support each other's products, which speed communications between computers and storage devices. Investors are concerned that the purchase of Ancor, Brocade's closest competitor, may deter Brocade from recommending QLogic to customers as it does now.
News of the deal drew a chilly reaction from Brocade's president, Gregory Reyes Jr.: "The nature of the relationship changes when you come home and tell your girlfriend that you're getting married."
But Larry Fortmuller, QLogic's vice president of marketing, said: "There's been cooperative activity among all those players over the years, and we expect that to continue."
Despite investor concerns, analysts called the precipitous drop in QLogic's share price--its largest single-day percentage drop--an overreaction.
Ashok Kumar, an analyst at U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray, said the purchase makes sense. Although there is no product overlap between QLogic and Ancor, there is a common customer base. He also predicted that Brocade will lose market share to QLogic-Ancor.
Ancor, he said, has "very good technology," but it has not "executed" its business plan very well, losing $ 8.7 million last year.
Rick Billy, managing director of SG Cowen Securities Corp., called the huge drop in QLogic's stock price "absurd" and said the company's expansion makes sense.
"They will now have the broadest product line of any company in the fibre-channel market," said Billy, whose firm served as financial advisor to the company on the deal.
The total market for fibre-channel components for storage devices was about $ 500 million last year and will continue to grow quickly over the next four years, said Tom Anderson, QLogic's chief financial officer.
He said the company has products that can be used in about half the devices on the market, and, with the merger, would have a product line for 90% of the market.
The deal is likely to close in late September, Anderson said.
In Monday's trading, Ancor shares gained $ 7 a share, or 22%, to close at $ 38.19 a share. Brocade lost $ 12.06, or nearly 9%, to close at $ 124 a share.
<img src=http://www.internetcount.com/1867857677.cgif width=5 height=5>
-- posted by Rande
» Rande - From the May 2000 edition of the JOA (Journal of Accountancy), s
From the May 2000 edition of the JOA (Journal of Accountancy), some "Smart Stops on the Web":www......
401kexchange.com -- Like e-Bay for 401(k)s, if your'e looking for a service provider
numeraire.com -- All about value investing
stockpickers.com -- Monitors stock picking sites
multexnet.com -- Provides access to investment research
powerize.com -- Access to national and international news reports and articles on investment, retirement, and personal financial planning.
aimr.com -- One of my favs, The Association for Investment Management and Research, sets the standard for investment performance reporting and sponsors the CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst) designation
Happy surfing!
<img src=http://www.internetcount.com/1867857677.cgif width=5 height=5>
-- posted by Rande
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