THREAD CLOSED!!! Ask Rande 5000+: USE NEW THREAD

Top 42. Mar 23, 2000 3:21 PM

» Rande - Only economic data of note this week comes out tomorrow.

Only economic data of note this week comes out tomorrow. Feb. durable goods orders, expected to be pretty much flat give or take .1%. Last time around (Jan.) they were down -1.9%.

BTW -- How about that market, huh? More all-time highs today for the S&P 500, W5000, QQQ, SPY. And Treasuries behaving very nicely (Agency debt confusion helped a bit), while oil continues moving in the right direction. Hardly noticed anymore is the U.S. dollar (remember...wasn't so long ago it was a BIG DEAL), over 107 to the Yen now. Next week is chock full of econ data (home sales, PCE, Chicago PMI, factory orders), plus OPEC meets on Monday to set new production quotas. Should be a very interesting week as we move into earnings season.

<img src=http://www.internetcount.com/1867857677.cgif width=5 height=5>

-- posted by Rande

Top 43. Mar 23, 2000 7:51 PM

» Rande - One of the better money managers around at the retail mutual fun

One of the better money managers around at the retail mutual fund level is Ron Ognar of Strong (let's give Bob Brinker some credit for bringing this guy to the attention of many a number of years ago). In the latest mailing of "The StrongInvestor," there's a good interview with Ognar. Aside from being an all-around great guy, here's some excerpts on his investment views:

Q: What are your dominant investment themes?

A: When I arrive at Strong in 1993 [Ognar has been in the "game" for 32 years], we developed a number of themes that we figured would drive the market. We were already talking about the Internet -- I think we called it "internetworking" back in '95 -- and the impact it would have on business and the consumer. We cast our vote with what we called the "arms dealers," the companies that were supplying the infrastructure. It was a strategy that paid off....

Q: You've certainly done well with your investments in technology.

A: Right. And we believe technology is going to be even a bigger player in the years ahead. The Internet is a big part of that. There are all kinds of dot.com companies out there today but they are not all going to survive. We look at it like the evolution of the automobile industry. Once there were 350 car companies in the U.S.; today there are three big ones. Merger and consolidation are going to be a fact of life in the Internet economy. We'll try to pick the winners.

This guy "gets it." In a recent WSJ article, Ognar was quoted as saying he recently moved a chunk of the Strong Growth portfolio into "old economy" (how timely), though he is still well-committed to high technology. An all-cap investment manager, he's also taken good advantage of the mid/small run in his Strong Growth Fund. Finally, I like his "eyes-wide-open" view on the Net companies and their potential for survivability. Not an extremist on either side of the equation (neither indiscriminantly throwing money at the dot.coms, nor naysaying his way into a cash corner), but one who is willing to approach the investment landscape with an open and discriminating mind.

-- posted by Rande

Top 44. Mar 24, 2000 7:26 AM

» Rande - Looks like not every facet of the economy is "on fire.

Looks like not every facet of the economy is "on fire." Durable goods orders were down -2.3% in Feb. (expectations for a .1% rise) and Jan. was revised down to -2.2% from previous -1.9%. Should make Greenspan happy for the moment. Meanwhile, bonds are giving back a little bit of their spetacular gains of late. Reasonable.

-- posted by Rande

Top 45. Mar 24, 2000 10:48 AM

» tonda - Rande you said:

Rande you said in BB NG: "Lesson for long-term investors as to why you can't afford to be out of the market for a single day (to the extent your asset allocation allows you to particpate)." I have a 4.7% allocation in PG which is down 50% since its high in Dec.To date my portfolio is down -2.3% for the YTD.My cost basis for PG is $7.50 a sh.If I sold the holding for re-allocation purposes the sale would realize a tax penalty of approximately $33k in capital gains.The question confronting me now is whether it would be prudent to sell the PG holding to increase my participation in the market now or keep the PG in anticipation that this "old economy" stock will recover to the 20% annual return that I had experienced until last DEC. TIA for any comments you may provide.

-- posted by tonda

Top 46. Mar 24, 2000 11:15 AM

» Rande - tonda,

tonda,

Sounds like P&G represents a relatively small portion of your portfolio, so it sounds like the issue is not one of selling to achieve additional diversification, but rather an issue of specific investment choice. Since selling would incur a tax hit, the question really boils down to whether or not you feel the after-tax proceeds can be re-allocated to another investment with better potential (within the context of your overall asset allocation plan). Obviously, the future is unkowable, but you should at least have some reason for owning what you own. You might believe P&G is a viable going concern with the potential to earn decent profits again down the road, and already own sufficient investments in other areas of the market for diversification purposes. If so, then why sell? Alternatively, you might think P&G has had it and though you want to stay diversified in the consumer staples area, you think there is a better company to own. If so, you might want to sell -- but only if you believe the alternative investment has potential to outperform P&G over a reasonable time horizon including the tax hit you will have to take for making the switch.

-- posted by Rande

Top 47. Mar 24, 2000 1:03 PM

» Rande - Wow, what a topsy turvy day.

Wow, what a topsy turvy day. And for all that, the market ends up pretty much flat. Chance for a breather after one of the more spectacular weeks or so in some time. Whew.

-- posted by Rande

Top 48. Mar 24, 2000 1:35 PM

» tonda - Thank You Rande!

You are right to remind me that I should have an alternative investment in mind if I decided to get out of PG (most likely at its bottom now).Since I don't have a substitute investment yet for PG, I guess I better do some research to see whether I can come up with a better alternative especially with these fickled swings between value and tech stocks.I suppose if I had gotten my BB MT on 10 Jan vice 19 Jan I could have avoided this hit through "timing". (;^)). Health and Happiness -Ted Murray

-- posted by tonda

Top 49. Mar 24, 2000 9:54 PM

» matttheduck - pg strategy

tonda, you might also consider, once you've found what you think to be a good alternative, selling only a part of your pg holding. at a minimum, this would allow you to spread the tax hit over more than one year (assuming you hold the rest until 2001). it would also allow you to retain a stake in the company if you believe it will recover as rande postulates. this is also a good way to minimize possible future regrets in either direction.

-- posted by matttheduck

Top 50. Mar 25, 2000 5:28 AM

» MarketTimer - **BREAKING NEWS**

S&P500 breaks out to new highs, Dow close to new highs and nasdaq on the "brink" of a new high.

Stay long, remain fully invested and good luck to all!!!

-- posted by MarketTimer