Books on Investing: Discussions, Reports &amp; Suggestions

Top 87. Mar 4, 2003 6:59 AM

» Kirk - "Manias, Panics, and Crashes" by Charles Kinderberger

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To:velociraptor_ who wrote (8407)
From: macavity Tuesday, Mar 4, 2003 3:32 AM
View Replies (2) | Respond to of 8435

The bull market from 1932 to 2000 is complete.

This is the most chilling statement that, if true, I am unsure most, even BEARS like myself, can really comprehend its significance.

All bubbles revert to their beginnings - All off them, without fail!

The problem is knowing where (exactly) the bubble started from.

Technology/Nasdaq Bubble 1998 - 2000
If you believed the bubble was just in technology then the LTCM lows where your levels. $SPX=950
You were wrong, but no-one is perfect.

Stock Market/$SPX Bubble ? 1994 - 2000
If you believe that the birth of stock options, the rise in the dollar and the ultra-rapid growth in stock prices (5 years of +20%) represented a bubble then we have still away to go. $SPX=450 is your level.
This is my target. But I will reconsider if/when we arrive here.

The S&L/401K Bubble 1990/1 - 2000.
If you actually consider that the rapid growth in 401K's arising from the movement out of CDs due to the easy credit generated to cure the S&L problem was the start of the bubble then these levels are for you.
I do not know these off hand.

& There are more

There are the 1981/2 levels The Bond/Credit bubble 1982-?
This bubble is still going on.
Since Gold hit 850, and Volcker promised to kill inflation bonds have been a one-way trade.
Rates have continued to fall upto the present.
This many bears believe is the true bubble, and that the Stock Market and housing market bubbles, are really derivatives of this.

& for the true goldbugs:
There are the 1932 levels.
The Fiat Money/USD-Money Supply Bubble.
I.e. the bubble is really a bubble caused by the fact that the dollar was taken off gold after the 1929 crash, allowing
The Fed to start fractional lending, spawning the mother of all bubbles.
This is a bit extreme to me but it effectively saying that we have completed a 5 wave impulse from the Start of the Industrial revolution, or even earlier. With 1932-2000 representing Wave 5. Waves 1 and 3 were on the Gold Standard.

As many know, I know too little about e-wave to diss any of this.
My view is this has been the biggest bubble ever, but I do not know where it started from. I see $SPX=950 as being super-solid resistance.

It could be any of these dates.
Personally I will look at each point as we get to them.

$SPX=950 we bounced off at 9-11, but then cut through like soft cheese in 2002.

As Japan has shown with the Nikkei, we will hit bottom in the end.
The more monetary and fiscal stimulus they do the longer it will take, the more good sectors/companies will be dragged down with the bad, but we will hit it in the end.

And the good news?
There will be rallies!

-macavity.

p.s. I know some people think bonds have topped, I am just not one of them.
Maybe it comes from living in Japan.

To:macavity who wrote (8432)
From: velociraptor_ Tuesday, Mar 4, 2003 9:28 AM
Respond to of 8435

I agree....most people do not comprehend (or are not willing to comprehend) the significance of this bear. History is an excellent example and a great teacher of what could happen if one is willing to read and learn about it. Anyone that wants top understand the significance of where we hav ebeen in the bubble and where we are going should read the following:

"Manias, Panics, and Crashes" by Kinderberger, Charles

The bubble has popped...that is inherently obvious when you look at the Nasdaq components. But the valuation issue and the source of the bubble, the credit system has yet to resolve or even break. It amazes me how so many are blind to this fact and are willing to call an end to the bear already. No way...no chance. Look at history and read the book.

-- posted by Kirk

Top 88. Mar 4, 2003 2:57 PM

» Kirk - Swedroe's 3 books & Bill Bernstein's 2 books

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Posted first here: http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/2...

Author: bernardo
Date: March 4, 2003 10:35 AM
Subject: guru antidote

In response to message posted by retiredinprescot:

Individual investors can largely avoid the guru trap by taking a little time to understand the basics of how markets work. In particular, investors of average intelligence or above can easily do that by simply reading Swedroe's 3 books & Bill Bernstein's 2 books, available at most large bookstores and many major libraries. The case these fine books make against guru worship, and active amanagement in general for that matter, is quite compelling and extremely well documented with studies & hard data.

The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You'll Ever Need: Index Mutual Funds and Beyond - The Way Smart Money Invests Today
by Larry E. Swedroe
(Hardcover - May 1998)
$18.17

What Wall Street Doesn't Want You to Know : How You Can Build Real Wealth Investing in Index Funds
by Larry E. Swedroe
(Hardcover - December 2000)
$18.17

Rational Investing in Irrational Times: How to Avoid the Costly Mistakes Even Smart People Make Today
by Larry E. Swedroe (Hardcover - June 2002)
$17.47

The Four Pillars of Investing : Lessons for Building a Winning Portfolio
by William J. Bernstein 1st edition (April 26, 2002)
$19.57

The Intelligent Asset Allocator: How to Build Your Portfolio to Maximize Returns and Minimize Risk
by William J. Bernstein, David M. Darst
(September 22, 2000)
$20.97

-- posted by Kirk

Top 89. Mar 4, 2003 5:42 PM

» Kirk - Recommended Reading

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People often ask what books I recommend. If you are a novice, I'd do a TON of reading FIRST before you invest any money. Then you will be better equiped to talk to a fee only advisor or even do even invest on your own, perhaps with the aid of my newsletter to help manage part of your investment portfolio.

These books are an EXCELLENT starting point for your education.

I get a commission if you buy from my links so please use them! :-)

Kirk's Recommended Investment Books - Basic
<img src="http://www.amazon.com/covers/0/47/129/543/0471295434.m.gif" alt="Click to Order" height="140" width="93" align="left">	Common Sense on Mutual Funds : New Imperatives for the Intelligent Investor by John C. Bogle, Founder of Vanguard Low Cost Mutual Fund Family Bogle has written a terrific book that makes its points over and over. Low cost funds, passive investment strategies, etc. His statistics, and we know they can always lie, are irrefutable that high cost, front-end load funds can never, as a group, match funds that use his proven strategies. There are always exceptions, but you think you are smart enough to pick those funds in advance?? Index funds give you a shot of at least matching the market, which as they say, ain't bad over time
<img src="http://images.amazon.com/images/P/0071362363.01._PE30_PIdp-schmoo2,TopRight,7,-26_SCMZZZZZZZ_.jpg" alt="Click to Order" height="173" width="106" align="left">	The Intelligent Asset Allocator: How to Build Your Portfolio to Maximize Returns and Minimize Risk by William J. Bernstein, David M. Darst Teaches the reader straightforward method for earning exceptional returns and minimizing risk when investing. Explains how to manage a personal diversified account, how to assess how risk according to personal needs, and the fundamental relationship between risk and reward in financial markets. "Any reader who takes the time and effort to understand his approach to the crucial subject of asset allocation will surely be rewarded with enhanced long-term returns." - John C. Bogle
<img src="http://images.amazon.com/images/P/0395853923.01.MZZZZZZZ.gif" nosave="" target="new" height="140" width="92" align="middle">	Wall Street Words : An Essential A to Z Guide for Today's Investor by David Logan Scott Synopsis: Wall Street Words features nearly 4,000 terms including hundreds of new entries that accurately and clearly explain the language of the world of finance and investment. Contemporary case histories offer real-world applications of investment concepts, how to manage money in today's market, and more.

A Random Walk Down Wall Street
by Burton Malkiel

Synopsis An unconventional guide to investing in Wall Street tells how to put together a broad portfolio of stocks through sidestepping the experts and how to rate the potential of a stock, bond, money market fund, or other investment.
Paperback

Kirk's Recommended Investment Books - Advanced
<img src="http://www.amazon.com/covers/0/68/481/350/0684813505.m.gif" alt="Click to order" target="new" height="140" width="92" align="left">	Contrarian Investment Strategies : The Next Generation: Beat the Market by Going Against the Crowd by David N. Dreman: / Hardcover / Published 1998 / 464 pages Kirk's Review: One of my favorite investment books! All stock-market investors embrace the motto "Buy low, sell high." Few act accordingly. This book teaches you how. Your job is to execute! Some great historical charts of returns inside.
<img src="http://www.amazon.com/covers/0/06/015/547/0060155477.m.gif" alt="Click to order" target="new" height="140" width="91" align="left">	The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham; Preface by Warren E. Buffett Graham's Intelligent Investor sets about educating the average person as to what makes an investment, what makes a speculation and how this knowledge can be applied to build wealth in the most risk-averse way possible. A VALUE Investor's MUST HAVE book! Buy Audio Cassette
<img src="http://images.amazon.com/images/P/0071358625.01.MZZZZZZZ.jpg" alt="Click to order" nosave="" target="new" height="140" width="92" align="left"> Paperback	The Bond Book by Annette Thau - October 2000: Thoroughly revised, updated, and expanded from its bestselling first edition, this all-in-one sourcebook includes: A new section on using the Internet to research, buy, and sell bonds A new chapter devoted to increasingly popular foreign bonds Detailed information on the inflation-linked Treasury bonds Explanation of the new categories of bond funds Tips on how to evaluate and buy bond funds

More Recommended Books: http://home.netcom.com/~kirk_69/MyNewBookList.html

Let me know if you like these. I am always open to updating my recommended list.

Feel free to discuss investment books here too.

Thanks!

-- posted by Kirk

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn...

Top 90. Apr 7, 2003 7:35 AM

» Kirk - Glassman: The Secret Code of the Superior Investor

Tech-Bashers Miss the Point

By James K. Glassman
Sunday, February 24, 2002; Page H01

A company called PayPal, which makes it easy to make purchases and transfer money online, went public on Feb. 15 and jumped 55 percent the first day. The press, predictably, greeted this success with snickers. Typical was a report on SmartMoney.com: "Take one profitless dot-com. Add a patent-infringement lawsuit and clashes with regulators in four states. What do you get? A rip-roaring IPO." Wrote the New York Times: "Sounds like 1999? It happened today."

But not so fast. PayPal is a real business, with 12.6 million registered customers and a huge following among users of eBay, the online auctioneer. Don't get me wrong. I am not telling you to rush out to buy the stock. For one thing, eBay is beefing up its own PayPal-like competitor, Billpoint. But, while it's smart to be skeptical of any newcomer, it's foolish to write off a company just because it's a high-technology fledgling.

That's one of the key lessons of a fascinating new study by Michael Moe, a former Merrill Lynch & Co. education-stock analyst who now runs ThinkEquity, a boutique investment firm in San Francisco. Like all the best research, Moe's was elegantly simple. He compiled a list of the 20 stocks whose share prices increased the most for the 10 years ended Dec. 31, 2001.

Fourteen of the 20 companies were in high technology, nearly all of them benefiting from the Internet boom. No. 1 on the list was Dell Computer Corp., whose sales have increased from less than $1 billion to more than $30 billion in a decade, in large part because of the firm's agility in selling online -- plus the demand of consumers and businesses for products that link to the Internet. No. 2 Emulex makes sophisticated connectors that speed the storage of electronic data. No. 8 Cisco Systems Inc. is the prime manufacturer of Internet infrastructure. Other well-known tech names on the list include EMC Corp. (4), Applied Materials Inc. (5), Oracle Corp. (6) and Maxim Integrated Products (10). The performance of the 20 stocks was astronomical. Dell's stock price, for example, increased by 7,890 percent. In other words, an investment of $1,000 grew to $79,900 in 10 years. Even the No. 19 stock, Intel Corp., rose 1,668 percent -- not including dividends, which alone rose by a factor of 10.

Speaking of 10. . . . In his 1989 book, "One Up on Wall Street," Peter Lynch referred to his quest for "tenbaggers" -- stocks on which he might make 10 times his money. He cites many he missed, including Deluxe Check Printers, insurer Geico (now a private component of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc.) and C.R. Bard Inc., a maker of medical devices. "In my business," Lynch wrote, "a fourbagger is nice, but a tenbagger is the fiscal equivalent of two home runs and a double." Intelligent investing is a quest not for companies that will be 50 percent gainers in one year, but for companies that will be tenbaggers in 10 years. For example, Analog Devices Inc., a chipmaker that finished 15th in Moe's survey, was a 24-bagger over the past decade even though its price dropped by more than half from mid-2000 to the end of 2001.

Of course, only a handful of stocks will be 24-baggers, but all you need is one. How do you find such humongous winners? Not simply by scouring balance sheets, cash flows and income statements -- after all, many of these firms don't have much history to examine. Instead, look also for great business ideas, wonderful market niches with little competition and good managers with lots of integrity. In other words, to get giant returns, you need to think like a venture capitalist.

And that's really the story of high technology in the 1990s. Many companies came to market in a "pre-IPO stage." In other words, they were not ready for prime time, lacking the traditional qualifications for an initial public offering. They were companies that, in the past, would have been financed by friends and relatives of the entrepreneurs who started them and by deep-pocketed venture capital firms. But the Nasdaq was gracious enough to allow early-stage companies with little or no profits to list shares. The result was that many of these firms went broke, or close to it (TheStreet.com, for instance, dropped from $60 on its opening day less than three years ago to $1.78 on Friday), but a few became 24-baggers, and more.

Over the past few years, ridiculing high-tech companies has become a popular sport. A new book, "Dot.con," by John Cassidy, economics writer for the New Yorker, argues that Internet stocks were empty shells, puffed up with hot air by stock analysts and other Wall Street and Silicon Valley sleazeballs (they were helped, too, he says, because even Alan Greenspan, the Fed chairman, was seduced by the tech scam). This is nonsense. Stock promotion did not begin with tech shares, nor will it end with them. Ultimately, stock prices depend on the real-life success of companies themselves. The problem (if you can call it that) with tech was that the companies, being relatively young, were extremely risky. The ratio of losers to winners was high, but the gains of the winners -- for investors with perspicacity and patience -- more than made up for the losses of the losers.

Imagine, for instance, that 10 years ago you had bought a portfolio of 20 technology stocks, investing $1,000 in each. Nineteen of them go broke -- straight to zero -- but one of them is EMC Corp. You buy 80 shares at $12.50 each. The stock undergoes six splits, and at the end of 2001 you own 3,840 shares at $13.44 each. So your $20,000 portfolio has grown in value to more than $52,000. Is 10 years too long to wait? EBay Inc. was launched in 1996 and issued shares to the public on Sept. 28, 1998. The stock closed that day at $47. Say you bought 100 shares for $4,700. The value of those shares now stands at about $33,000.

In research for his forthcoming book, "Bubbleology: The New Science of Stock Market Winners and Losers," Kevin Hassett, my colleague at the American Enterprise Institute, constructed an index of publicly held Internet-related stocks. Between January 1999 and May 2001, a period that included the huge collapse of tech shares that began in spring 2000, the index rose more than 40 percent. But, again, the number of losers overwhelmed the number of winners, and half the stocks lost more than 50 percent of their value. That's the nature of these companies.

But back to Michael Moe's list. Why did the stocks rise? Mainly for the most old-fashioned of reasons: Their profits rose. The average annual increase in earnings per share for the 20 companies was 34 percent; the average annual increase in stock price was 41 percent. Again, this is just what you would expect. TheStreet.com's stock has collapsed because the company has never made money, but Oracle stock has risen an average of 43 percent a year because its earnings have risen an average of 42 percent a year. To find stocks that will grow in price, find stocks that will grow in earnings.

But what do these huge winners tell us about price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios? "What's interesting," writes Moe in a letter to his clients, "is that the average P/E of the top 20 was almost 30 at the beginning of the 10-year period." In fact, six of the companies had P/Es in 1991 that were over 40. A reasonable conclusion is that a high P/E is no reason to eliminate a stock. By the way, average P/Es rose to 48 by 2001, an indication that investors still think these firms will do well in the years ahead.

Another important fact gleaned from the list, however, is that only three of the 20 were unprofitable in 1991. You don't necessarily have to pick future tenbaggers from among companies with a history of losses. In fact, one of my rules is never to buy stock in a firm that hasn't made money. You can wait and still make a bundle. In 1991, for example, Cisco, at age 7, was earning $43 million on $187 million in sales. It became a 36-bagger in the next 10 years. And don't forget that non-techs can be monster winners, too. On Moe's top-20 list were Clear Channel Communications (a 54-bagger), radio; Best Buy Co. (36-bagger), retail chain; Robert Half International Inc. (25-bagger), personnel; Harley-Davidson Inc. (19-bagger), motorcycles; and Jeffries Group Inc. (38-bagger) and Eaton Vance Corp. (19-bagger), finance.

Still, in general, tech is where the action was in the past decade and where it will probably be in the decade ahead. Just remember that the action is wild. Go ahead and search for a few big winners, but protect yourself through diversification -- own lots of tech stocks, but keep only about one-fifth of your total stock assets in tech. Don't go overboard on tech, but don't neglect it, either.

<img align=left src=http://images.amazon.com/images/P/1400046718.01._PE20_PI_SCMZZZZZZZ_.jpg width=90 height=147>The Secret Code of the Superior Investor: How to Be a Long-Term Winner in a Short-Term World
by James K. Glassman

Among the stocks mentioned in this article, James K. Glassman owns Dell Computer. His new book is "The Secret Code of the Superior Investor," and he can be reached at jglassman@aei.org.

Paperback: 336 pages ;
Publisher: Three Rivers Press; (December 24, 2002)

-- posted by Kirk

Top 91. Apr 8, 2003 9:13 AM

» Kirk - Stock Trader's Almanac 2003

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Stock Trader's Almanac 2003
by Yale Hirsch, Jeffrey A. Hirsch

30% off here: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1...

-- posted by Kirk

Top 92. Jun 12, 2003 6:33 AM

» Kirk - Neale Godfrey is the "Goddess of Money"

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Clicking this Link should give you a list of books written by Neale Godfrey, the "Goddess of Money." Most of her books seem to be along the lines of teaching your kids about money. I bet they are popular as this means they are simple enough for "WWF loving Adults" to read and comprehend with little effort.

These look good and have low prices:
Neale S Godfreys Ultimate Kids Money Book
by Neale Godfrey (Author), Randy Verougstraete (Illustrator)
Reading level: Ages 9-12
Price: $13.97

MONEY DOESN'T GROW ON TREES : A PARENT'S GUIDE TO RAISING FINANCIALLY RESPONSIBLE CHILDREN
by Neale S. Godfrey, Carolina Edwards
Price: $9.60

-- posted by Kirk

Top 93. Jun 21, 2003 6:41 AM

» Kirk - A Random Walk Down Wall Street; Revised and Updated

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Burton G. Malkiel said on TV last night that he still buys stocks because "stocks are fun."

Bottom line is we all want to try and beat the averages and nobody smart wants to be thought of as "average."

I think the smart folks recognize this and advise a bit of both such as "core and Explore" that we talk about AND STRONGLY RECOMMEND here.

Last night I learned Malkiel's book is revised...

<img align=left src=http://images.amazon.com/images/P/0393057828.01._PE30_PI_SCMZZZZZZZ_.jpg width=111 height=169>
A Random Walk Down Wall Street, Completely Revised and Updated Edition
-- by Burton G. Malkiel;
Hardcover
Price: $20.97 & eligible for FREE Super Saver

From Publishers Weekly
The eternal truth of this updated investment classic, originally published in 1973, is simple: you can't beat the market. Well, technically, you can beat the market, but not profitably, because the transaction costs of your brilliant trading will eat up the extra returns. You can also beat the market by pure luck-but you can't deliberately beat the market, because you can't predict future stock prices. You can't predict them by divining Wall Street's crowd psychology; or by charting trends in stock prices; or by doing lots of research on companies' business prospects. You can't predict them from hemlines (though there's been "some evidence" for correlation between skirt length and market prices in the past, Malkiel poo-poos future possibilities) or Super Bowl winners (this, he says, makes "no sense"). In fact, according to the efficient market theory, which states that all knowable information about a stock's value is already reflected in its share price, you can't predict them at all. Malkiel, a Princeton economist and professional investor, backs it all up with statistics, charts and studies, and gives an entertaining review of the sorry history of market bubbles, panics and delusions of omniscience, from the Dutch tulip craze to the Beardstown Ladies. This edition looks at new wrinkles (it seems you can't beat the market by buying companies with ".com" in the name), and provides a lucid overview of novel investment vehicles. Standing by his notorious claim that "a blindfolded chimpanzee throwing darts" at the NYSE listings could pick stocks as well as the Wall Street pros, Malkiel advises investors to "buy and hold" a diversified portfolio heavy on index funds that passively mirror the market, which usually out-perform actively managed funds. His witty, acerbic style and persuasive arguments will delight readers but, alas, leave Wall Street unmoved.

I'll have to update my recommended books list!

-- posted by Kirk

Top 94. Jul 17, 2003 4:02 PM

» SteveT - Winning the Loser’s Game

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"Winning the Loser’s Game"

While on vacation I read Winning the Loser’s Game Third Edition by Charles Ellis. Ellis definitely has strong opinions on the best way to manage a portfolio, but he does not tell you how to do so. Instead he gives you some major questions you should ask yourself and leaves it up to you to come up with your own investment policy or urge you to seek help from an investment manager.

One constant theme is there are so many full time professional large institutions in the stock market it is practically impossible to consistently “beat the market”. You are instead better off admitting that and buy index funds. He offers the usual rational, that being after the cost associated with owning managed funds they have a pretty tough row to hoe to top the low cost alternative.

According to Ellis if you do attempt to beat the market you can do so using one or more of the following methods; Market timing, Selecting specific stocks or groups of stocks, Changes in portfolio structure or strategy, insightful long-term concepts or philosophy. He goes on to say, “The only way to beat the market is to exploit other investors’ mistakes.” He is very opposed to market timing, calling it a wicked idea and recommends not trying it EVER! Stock picking is hard because research and information is often instantly available so if a good buy comes along it is quickly exploited by all those full time pros that make up the market. You can’t count on the strategy of picking the one asset class as being the long term solution to beating Mr. market either. That is why diversity works, no asset class leads every year. The long-term concept takes discipline even when the short-term results look terrible, that is why they so often fail. Ellis says the largest part of your total return will come from the simplest investment decision that can be made, buying the market.

Ellis is big into investment policy. That is your personalized “play book” with your own written plan that you evaluate perhaps once a Quarter at most, and maybe as little as once a year. It should be a plan that both allows you to eat well and sleep well. It does pay very close attention to your risk tolerance, time horizon, it should not be altered just because the market is in the dumpster or flying high. Above all it should fit your needs.

Time and the miracle of compounding is your best friend in investing, allow it to do its work. If you need some money for a goal of a new home, car, or a few years away from paying college tuition bills that money does not belong in the stock market. If you got money not needed for 10 years chances are your best return will come from equities so that is where it should be invested to help defeat our worst financial enemy, inflation. Ellis says “The average long-term experience in investing is never surprising, but the short-term experience is always surprising.

We often worry about risk, there are three kinds according to Ellis one we can’t avoid, but can manage and will be rewarded for. The other two we are not rewarded for taking so what’s the point? Overall market risk, sometime is referred to as systemic risk is something we must accept if we invest in equities. We can alter market risk by selecting volatile stocks, leverage, or by keeping some of a portfolio in cash. The two we can avoid are closely related, they are specific stock risk and stock group risk or investing in a sector of similar stocks or industries. Ellis says we do not need to take these risks since over the long haul we will not be rewarded for taking them. Sure by taking these greater risks we can earn a higher return but must accept we could also have steep losses. A final word on risk, “Never risk more than you know you can afford to lose”.

In building a portfolio the goal should be to maximize expected returns at a deliberately chosen level of market risk. Another secret he passes on for long-term investing success is to avoid serious losses. If you do have a portion of your portfolio that has done well in the past but is having a weak period consider moving part of the money from a stronger area and putting it to work in the weak area.

Ellis finishes with something that caught me somewhat off guard. He makes a strong case for those in retirement having a traditionally high percentage of their portfolio in equities. Course that is all part of our own individualized investment policy. He claims someone at age 70 with a life expectancy of 80 and who wants to leave a substantial bequest to someone age 50 has a 30 year time horizon so he has no problem with that person being up to 100% in equities. Or perhaps they want to leave money to charity with an even longer time line than 30 years. This makes sense I guess as long as you have sufficient cash flow to live on. He does address that fact too. If you need an income from you portfolio he suggests rather than bonds (which do poorly during periods of inflation) hold dividend paying stocks (amazing since this edition went to press in 1998). In short “Don’t change your investments just because you have come to a different age”.

I don’t know that all Ellis advises is for me but it is a quick read and worth while. It definitely gives you more to think about. Perhaps the most important thing I got out of it was reinforcing the idea of picking a plan or policy and sticking to it through the good go-go times and the bad bear market times.

[Kirk Comment: Thanks Steve.

<img align=left src=http://images.amazon.com/images/P/0071387676.01._PE30_PIdp-schmoo2,TopRight,7,-26_SCMZZZZZZZ_.jpg width=112 height=169>
Winning the Loser's Game
by Charles D. Ellis, John J. Brennan
Publisher: McGraw-Hill Trade; 4th edition (March 14, 2002) ]

Book Description

"Winning the Loser's Game is considered by many to be a classic analysis of investing." Financial Planning

The premise of the bestselling Winning the Loser's Gamethat individual investors can achieve far greater success working with financial markets than against themhas grown increasingly popular in today's hard-to-predict markets. The latest edition of this concise yet comprehensive classic offers updated strategies to leverage the power of time and compounding, protect against down cycles, and more.

-- posted by SteveT

Top 95. Sep 27, 2003 6:37 AM

» Kirk - New Edition: A Random Walk Down Wall Street

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In response to message posted by allancoleman:

KLR , really appreciate the tip about the eighth edition of a Random Walk Down Wall Street by Burton G Malkiel . i ordered , received , and am mostly ( 7/8's ) through the book . it's very good and i would recommend it to everyone .

<img src=http://images.amazon.com/images/P/0393057828.01._PE30_PI_SCMZZZZZZZ_.jpg width=111 height=169 align=left> A Random Walk Down Wall Street, Completely Revised and Updated Edition
by Burton G. Malkiel
Publisher: W.W. Norton & Company; Revised and Updated edition (April 2003)

I hope you ordered the books from Suite101.com's Coop so we get a commission to help support the cost of this site.

You might enjoy or Books on Investing forum here where I encourage people to write book reports (or short summaries) on books they recommend.

From the reviews:

This classic has been around for 30 years and this revised edition is worth your time, especially if you have never read an earlier edition. Just be aware that many technical traders consider this to be a work of fiction.

and in another:

On page 198 of this work, you will find a quote from Benjamin Graham, the father of Security Analysis. Taken from the FINANCIAL ANALYSTS JOURNAL, it says "I am no longer an advocate of elaborate techniques of security analysis in order to find superior value opportunities. This was a rewarding activity, say, 40 years ago, when Graham and Dodd was first published; but the situation has changed . . . [Today] I doubt whether such extensive efforts will generate sufficiently superior selections to justify their cost . . .I'm on the side of the 'efficient market' school of thought."
What Graham actually said at the end of that passage was "TO THIS LIMITED EXTENT, I'm on the side of the 'efficient market' school of thought." Kind of changes the meaning, no?
And what else, if anything, did Graham say in that magazine? He outlined five simple methods of finding stocks that are likely to beat the 'efficient' market.
This sums up about 50% of what's wrong with this book: the 'evidence' is heavily selected. You don't get enough information to make an intelligent judgement on whether something he quotes or cites is valid, or even if it really says what Malkiel claims it does.

I think EVERYONE agrees that this is a great book, but the conclusions that you can't beat the market are hardly "proven."

-- posted by Kirk