Books on Investing: Discussions, Reports & Suggestions
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» Normxxx - Prospering in the Coming Good Years
Prospering in the Coming Good Years
By Clif Droke<img align="Left" src="http://images.amazon.com/images/P/047143051X.01._PE60_PIdp-schmooS,TopRight,7,-26_SCMZZZZZZZ_.jpg">
Trading legend Larry Williams has written an answer to bear market guru Bob Prechter’s best-seller, "Conquer the Crash." It’s entitled "The Right Stock at the Right Time: Prospering in the Coming Good Years." Published in 2002, Williams anticipated the major stock market low later that year as well as the 2003 rally. As the title suggests, Williams believes (in contrast to Prechter) the coming years will be bullish.
Having recently read "The Coming Good Years" by Williams, I was impressed with his historical research to prove that the remainder of this decade should be positive overall. I share his vision of the stock market and economy for the most part, having weighed both the bearish and the bullish cases between the October 2002-March 2003 double bottom, deciding in favor of the latter. It was refreshing to discover that a market veteran of Williams’ standing shared my longer-term view of the market.
"The Coming Good Years" is divided in sections covering Williams’ various approaches to the stock market. Williams is most noted for his seasonal trading strategies, and he offers many such seasonal trading strategies for stock market traders and investors in the book. He starts with a discussion of the 10-year price pattern and notes the best years for entering and exiting the stock market based on more than 100 years of trading history. As an example, he noted that on balance, investors who purchased stocks at the start of the sixth year of the decade had to wait only until the eighth year to make money. However, investors who purchased stocks in the years ending in nine had to wait almost five years, on average, before showing a profit (pg. 13). "So timing your entries and exits in the stock market is critical," writes Williams. He believes that following the 10-year price pattern is one way to gain an advantage in the business of speculation.
Williams reviews each decade in the U.S. stock market going back to the late 1800s. He reveals that, on balance, even-numbered years tend to be bearish, while odd-numbered years tend to be bullish. He also discovered that the second and third years of every decade present major long-term buying opportunities.
Moreover, Williams found that 11 out of all 11 times the fifth year of a decade has produced a rally or market-up move, making it the strongest year in the 10-year pattern. Writes Williams, "Without a doubt the fifth years of the decades have been where the bulk of wealth has been made. [Yale Hirsch’s] work showed a total gain of 254 percent in the five years, making them head and shoulders above even the second-place eight years, which came in with a 164 percent gain." Williams believes the 10-year pattern will repeat again during this decade.
Williams also devotes a chapter to what he calls the "Amazing October Effect." He reviews the seasonal period between October-April and reveals how this pattern can either be a major bull market or bear market strategies tool, depending on what year it is. Read pages 29-39 to find out how the October Effect can be put to good use by stock traders.
Williams also devotes considerable space to the bond market and how bonds and interest rates can be used as a valuable forecasting tool. He also demonstrates techniques for trading stocks using bonds as a timing tool, including using his own volatility stop method. This is reveals in pages 53-62.
Of interest to gold bugs, Williams discusses his take on the "golden rule" of the gold market ("It is not that he who has the gold gets to rule; it is that he who has the smarts gets to buy gold at the right time," pg. 65). Williams emphasizes the tremendous impact the commercial interests have on the gold market and shows which indicator to use to best measure this. He states, "If the gold bug camp would pay attention to what the commercials are doing they themselves would have a much better idea of when to get in and out of this market," adding that "It is unfathomable for me that anyone would think there could ever be a significant market rally in gold without the commercials first assuming heavy long positions."
Williams explains in Chapter 5 why the next move up in stocks will be so spectacular. He shows which technical and sentiment tools are best for stock selection and provides an excellent commentary on how fundamental tools can be combined with stock charts for optimum investing results, with a heavy emphasis on company earnings. This is certainly an area that has been greatly overlooked by most market technicians in recent years, and I would recommend his book based on this discussion alone (pgs. 109-118). In these pages Williams makes a couple of statements that undoubtedly will gall many chart analysts. While I don’t agree with everything Williams says in these pages, I do believe that overall he’s made a valuable contribution to the furtherance of fundamental studies while simultaneously validating the basis of technical analysis.
Another area of this book I don’t agree with is Williams’ discussion on value investing and his heavy emphasis on value stocks for the coming years. He also seems to dismiss the notion that tech stocks will enjoy a sizeable rally in the years ahead, a view I do not share. Nonetheless, he provides many concepts and interesting discussions on how to select stocks based on the value-based approach that will no doubt pique the interest of investors who use the fundamental approach.
He concludes his book with a lengthy discussion on money management and its importance to any investor, and for a final kick in the shins to the perma-bears, he shows a long-term chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average along with the 12-month Rate of Change M3 Money Stock measurement divided by the DJIA. The chart alone is worth a million words and I believe adequately underscores his point that the years immediately ahead are more than likely to be bullish than bearish.
If for no other reason, investors who have read Bob Prechter’s "Conquer the Crash" should read Williams’ book as an inoculant to counteract the gloomy scenario painted by that author. "Prospering in the Coming Good Years" is just what the doctor ordered to those investors who have been burned by a bearish view of the stock market since the October 2002 bottom, and who missed entirely the 2003 rally. There is a message of hope contained in its pages that is sorely lacking in many market-related books today. The book is available from Amazon.com or from your local book retailer.
The content of this message is not to be construed as constituting market or investment advice. It is intended for educational purposes only. Individuals should consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.
-- posted by Normxxx
» SteveT - Stocks for the Long Run
'Stocks for the Long Run'
By Jeremy Siegel
If you read this book in hopes of the author telling you to buy stock ABC instead of XYZ you will be disappointed. This book outlines the case for equity ownership. Siegel lays out his reasons using a step by step approach.
He starts by reviewing historic stock returns in the U.S. back to 1802 and compares them to Long Bonds, T-Bills, Gold, and Inflation. Throughout the book he uses differing time frames to illustrate over the long run investors will do better owning stocks than other asset classes. The key is stocks are the only asset class that offers historic real rates of return to maintain your purchasing power. Inflation and time erode purchasing power and Siegel brings this point up often. He does not ignore the fact that it is possible to do much better during shorter periods with other asset classes but this is hard to accomplish on a consistent basis.
Perhaps for me the biggest surprise was seeing the real rates of return of Bonds over a 20 years or more time frame. After inflation most time periods left investors with little purchasing power. T-Bills fare even worse, so much for safety. Perceived risk and the equity premium is certainly a big part of the higher returns. Holding period enters into it too. Siegel points out when stock holding periods are 15 years Standard deviation of average annual stock returns become lower than the Standard deviation of average bond or bill returns. Over a thirty year stock holding period the equity risk falls to only two-thirds that of bonds or bills. From there as holding periods increase the Standard deviation of average stock returns fall nearly twice as fast as that of fixed income assets. I thought the best way to drive home this point was a chart of Thirty Year returns after the stock market peaks of 1929 and 1966 compared to Bond and T-Bills. Stocks out perform by more than 2 to 1.
The book reviews topics often discussed here about Allocation, Dogs of the DOW, Correlation, Valuation, Taxes, Foreign investing, Inflation, and the FED. Siegel did talk about seasonality, mostly the January effect and some of the Technical analysis associated with investing.
He finishes with why fund managers can’t consistently beat the market due to fees they incur running the fund. He also mentions tips for structuring a portfolio for long-term growth.; Stocks should be the majority of your holdings, he does speak highly of government inflation-indexed bonds for those looking for a safer alternative to stocks. He also endorses diversity and maximizing tax-deferred accounts.
The book left me reconsidering my bond allocation. I am not going to make any hasty changes but will decide down the road as retirement approaches if I want to increase my fixed income allocation or look to dividend paying stocks for retirement income. The taxation on dividends has changed since the book was written, it would be interesting to know Siegel’s thoughts should current tax policy become permanent.
-- posted by SteveT
» bob90245 - Re: Stocks for the Long Run
In response to message posted by SteveT:I thought the best way to drive home this point was a chart of Thirty Year returns after the stock market peaks of 1929 and 1966 compared to Bond and T-Bills. Stocks out perform by more than 2 to 1.
Me too.
-- posted by bob90245
» Normxxx - Re: Stocks for the Long Run
In response to message posted by SteveT:Because the underlying asset is so stable (almost always increasing in value; hardly ever dropping), REITs are an excellent substitute for bonds. But they must be bought during a period of undervaluation-- right now, they are still overvalued and may stay that way for some time, especially if they begin to pick up an inflation premium.
The content of this message is not to be construed as constituting market or investment advice. It is intended for educational purposes only. Individuals should consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.
-- posted by Normxxx
» SteveT - Stocks for the Long Run
Anyone interested in purchasing the book may do so via this link. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0...
If you enjoy this site please consider ordering to support this site.
-- posted by SteveT
» bob90245 - From the Archive
.Kirk, let's see if I followed your instructions correctly. -bob90245
http://www.kingcountyjournal.com/sited/s...
Recommended summer reading for investors
2000-05-28
by Bill Schultheis
Did you really think you could sneak away for a relaxing summertime vacation without taking the Coffeehouse Quiz?
Well, before you pack up the car and head for the mountains, here it is:
The Nasdaq stock index, after briefly climbing above 5,000 in early March, has proceeded to lose about 40 percent of its value, flirting with the 3,000 point level this past week. If the Nasdaq traded at the historical price earnings ratio for all stocks (15-18), what level would we find the Nasdaq trading at today?
a) 2,500
b) 1,500
c) 500
d) 5
The answer is 500, which means that if this does occur, the Nasdaq will have endured a 90 percent decline from the highs reached earlier this year!
Next question: Is the recent selloff in the technology-laden Nasdaq index just a correction, as we've witnessed so many times in the past, or is this the beginning of a downward spiral that could see the index give up 90 percent of its value as it establishes a trading range closer to the stock market's historical levels?
Hold on, Mama! Are you sure we packed the bear repellent?
The financial media have been obsessed with the enormous returns generated by the Nasdaq stock index this past year. For investors who have concentrated their holdings in this part of the stock market, the recent three-month decline is a reminder that extraordinary gains can quickly evaporate into extraordinary losses.
As you head out for your summer vacation this year, now might be a good time to disconnect from Wall Street as well. Allow yourself to take a vacation from the frenzied stock market and use this time as an opportunity to reestablish a perspective on your investment objectives.
If the thought of leaving your laptop and cell phone behind keeps you itching for something to do, here are three books to get you through the Nasdaq summertime blues, and might help you in your future investment endeavors:
Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes -- And How to Correct Them (Gary Belsky & Thomas Gilovich; Fireside, 2000).
This book explores the emotional factors that cause intelligent investors to make illogical and costly money decisions. In one of the many examples used throughout the book, the authors point to a 1993 study revealing that most investors are inclined to sell their winning stock positions too early and hold on to their losing stock positions too long, greatly reducing long-term returns.
Our emotions prompt us to lock in the sure thing of a profit and prevent us from admitting the mistake of a losing stock selection.
Because of the dramatic selloff of the technology sector, many investors are now faced with a similar dilemma of wanting to lock in profits to protect from further market declines while at the same time hanging on to sizable losing positions, hoping these losses will eventually be recouped by a reversal in the market.
Belsky and Gilovich encourage their readers to make these buy/hold/sell decisions based not on emotions, but on what is best in maintaining a diversified portfolio (and strongly advocate the Coffeehouse philosophy to boot!).
If a tally of your portfolio holdings reveals that you are still heavily overweighted in the large and growth sectors of the market, now might be a good time to take profits or pare losses and reallocate these funds to other sectors of the market including small and value stock sectors, fixed income investments and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITS).
The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You Will Ever Need (Larry Swedroe; Dutton, 1998).
The author, a staunch advocate of the Coffeehouse philosophy of passive (index) investing, discusses the futility of latching on to Wall Street in an attempt to beat the stock market average.
Swedroe takes the reader through a step-by-step process of first choosing a sensible allocation percentage among different investments and then details how to construct a diversified portfolio using stock index funds, and does an excellent job of explaining the many factors that go into building the fixed-income portion of your portfolio.
A primary advantage of passive investing is that it directs your attention away from the meaningless pursuit of performance above a benchmark, allowing you to focus instead on the more important issues of portfolio management covered in Swedroe's book.
How To Find The Work You Love (Laurence Boldt; Penguin Books, 1996).
Once your investment philosophy is established and your portfolio is in constructed, it's time to ignore the hype of Wall Street and get on with your life. Sometimes this is the greatest challenge of all, a challenge that becomes infinitely easier when you are passionately involved with your families, friends, communities and careers.
Boldt's message is simple: We reach our optimum level of productivity and happiness when we tap into our essential creativity, and then apply it in our careers. For some of us, this requires the courage to start anew, and the determination to see it through. This little book will inspire you to begin exploring the life you were meant to live.
Now what? Who forgot the hot chocolate? Happy reading and happy trails.
Bill Schultheis is author of The Coffeehouse Investor: How to Build Wealth Ignore Wall Street and Get on With Your Life (Longstreet). His column runs Sundays. He is a Seattle resident. E-mail your comments to: Wjs5@aol.com.
-- posted by bob90245
» Kirk - Re: From the Archive
.In response to message posted by bob90245:
Kirk, let's see if I followed your instructions correctly. -bob90245
Perfect!
Your book links now will help support Suite101.com!
Thanks!
Please visit these new Suite101.com pay-per-click sponsors too!:
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-- posted by Kirk
» Normxxx - We're in a secular bear market
We're in a secular bear market for the next 7 to 10 years
Review By D. Murali
IN SOCCER, saving a goal is to leap where the ball comes hurtling. Just so in hunting and investing. "Every hunter knows that you don't shoot where the duck is, but where the duck is going to be," writes John Mauldin in Bull's Eye Investing, published by Wiley (www.wiley.com), a book on `targeting real returns in a smoke and mirrors market'. What has worked always should work now and in the future, right? No, says the author: "Markets of today, and the forces that drive them, are quite different than those of past decades." The plan is to win from now till the end of the decade, that is, 2004 to 2010, and these years are not going to be like the 1980s or 1990s.
"Which way is the stock market going? Which way are bonds going? Gold? Real estate? Where should I invest?" These are the questions on the minds of millions of investors. "We are currently in just the first few innings of a secular bear market," observes Mauldin.
Secular has nothing to do with communal equation, but long periods of time when stock markets go up or sideways, and long periods when they go down or sideways, depending on whether it is bull or bear phase. "Secular is from the Latin word saeculum, which means a long period of time," explains the author. In a secular bull market investors should focus on investments that offer "relative returns", that is, "stocks and funds that will perform better than the market averages".
In a secular bear market, as of now, "focus on absolute returns". Here's the tip: "Success is all about controlling risk and carefully and methodically compounding your assets."
No gloom-doom book, this, assures the author but cautions: "The recent era of profitable buy-and-hold stock market investing, using index funds and chasing high-growth large-cap stocks, has ended, and will not come our way again for many years. Until then, we need to change our investment habits to adjust with the times."
Over the last about two centuries, traditional analysis suggests there have been seven secular bear markets lasting almost 14 years (each with an average real return of 0.3 per cent) and seven secular bull markets (with a 13.2 per cent return) lasting about 15 years. "The average complete cycle of a combined secular bull and bear market is 28 years."
It's easy to be misled, warns Mauldin. "There is no one-to-one correlation between rising profits and a growing economy and a rising stock market." History is `a tough opponent' and it shows "that we will be in a secular bear market for at least the next 7 to 10 years," with declining P/E ratios, as in the 1970s. After a chapter that gives the analogy of The Matrix movie (to explain a mega foldout chart that plots over 5,000 investment period scenarios), you find a discussion of `financial physics' using inputs from www.CrestmontResearch.com.
It may be old-fashioned, but what matters in today's market is `in-your-pocket earnings'. As Mauldin puts it, "Earnings matter more and more as the bear market cycle drags on."
There is an accounting angle too: "Accounting standards always tighten up in bear markets. Investors become more conservative. They are not willing to project earnings growth far into the future."
Here is an alarming statement: In the biggest companies (such as GM, Ford, and so on with large pension and health care obligations) the real owners may be their workers and retirees and not their shareholders. "The only alternative is a massive restructuring of liabilities." We may see the average retirement age rise because it will cost more to retire.
"For the world economy to grow, developing countries are going to have to look to themselves for growth," even as aging developed countries will cease to be the powerful growth engines they once were.
For them, the author advises: "Consider backing a younger person who has the time and energy to start a business in a foreign country. But be prepared to travel, and even if you are only the investor, learn the local language and customs and be ready to change course quickly."Returning to hunting, towards the end of the book, the author points out that it is no longer deer season.
"It is time to hunt for something else and maybe even to hunt in a different place altogether, with different types of weapons and hunting gear." Research and homework will be rewarded, rather than blind trust, is Mauldin's counsel.
So, where do you think the duck is headed?
The contents of this letter/report does not necessarily reflect the opinions or viewpoint of normxxx. They are provided for informational/educational purposes only.
The content of this message is not to be construed as constituting market or investment advice. It is intended for educational purposes only. Individuals should consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.
-- posted by Normxxx
» Normxxx - Mandelbrot: Chaos RULES
Mathematician argues markets more dangerous than investors know
By Warren Boroson, Daily Record | 8/24/04
<img Align="Left" src="http://images.amazon.com/images/P/0465043550.01._PE32_PI_SCMZZZZZZZ_.jpg">
A key message of Benoit Mandelbrot's book "The (Mis)behavior of Markets" (Basic Books, 2004, co-written by Richard L. Hudson), is that investment markets in general and the stock market in particular are riskier and more dangerous than people know.
Investors should therefore be more cautious.
Indeed, the last sentence in his book is: "Like the weather, markets are turbulent. We must learn to recognize that, and better cope."
His argument runs counter to the popular view that stocks long-term are not just the most profitable investment, but the safest - a view given prominence several years back in the best-selling book "Stocks for the Long Run" by Jeremy Siegel.
Mandelbrot, 80, is a mathematician at Yale and the creator of "fractal" geometry, which focuses on the regularities in various irregular systems, from wind tunnels to coastlines. If mathematicians received Nobel Prizes, he probably would be first in line.
His book is difficult. Sometimes I had trouble understanding him, especially when he is writing about fractals and not about investing, which is much too often.
But he is not afraid to argue that the emperor has no clothes, that most of the leading financial theories accepted today are - if not exactly hogwash - badly flawed.
His arguments are persuasive, and sometimes, he expresses himself in memorable prose.
The stock market, he says, is more dangerous than people know because it's not stable and peaceful, but turbulent. (Think of the bear markets of 1987, 1997 and 2000.)
I remember telling a gentleman of 70, back in 2000, that he should cut back on his exposure to stocks. "I'm in for the long run," he told me confidently.
No, I never went back and told him, "I told you so," because a few years later, he told me, "You were right."
Think of all the investors who lost their shirts, and their early, comfortable retirements, when the Internet bubble burst because they were not sufficiently aware, as Mandelbrot is, of how treacherous the stock market is.
Too many people, Mandelbrot argues, think that the "bell curve" is found everywhere in nature, that most things congregate in the middle, and that the relatively few exceptions peter out on the left and the right. (Hence the shape of a bell.)
Nature not only abhors a vacuum; nature loves mediocrity. There are a few people with high IQs, a few people with low IQs, then there are the rest of us.
But the bell curve, Mandelbrot argues, doesn't apply to the stock market, the cotton market or to markets in general.
"The seemingly improbable happens all the time in financial markets," he writes.
Citing the drops in the market in the late 1990s, he calculates that the odds against this were less than one in 10 to the 50th power. Yet abrupt drops and sharp spikes occur in the market year after year, proving that the system is not calm, but turbulent.
"Extreme price swings are the norm in financial markets - not aberrations that can be ignored," he writes.
Brokers may urge people to keep 45 percent of their portfolios in stocks, he notes. But many people are dubious. The Japanese keep 53 percent of their financial assets in cash and barely 8 percent in stocks. Europeans keep 28 percent in cash, 13 percent in stocks.
Another fundamental belief of academics that he attacks is the efficient market hypothesis - the absurd notion that (a) all information about stocks is out there and (b) everybody interprets the information the same way, therefore (c) stock prices are always reasonable.
Curiously, this absurd view was invented by a former student of Mandelbrot: Eugene Fama.
Stocks follow a "random walk"? There's no relationship between what happens to a stock Monday and what happens Tuesday?
Actually, Mandelbrot argues, drops and rallies tend to congregate together. There really is momentum.
As for a central tenet of Modern Portfolio Theory - that a group of risky investments in one portfolio can be safe because they are not correlated and they won't all sink together - well, they may, he argues.
I remember years ago when the manager of a mutual fund, Fidelity Asset Manager, owned a portfolio of risky investments, and for a while, they did splendidly.
Then the whole thing blew up. Because when investors in Newark get nervous, so do investors in Neufchatel.
So, should all of us cut back on our investments in the stock market?
Older people probably should. I meet a lot of older people - "older" meaning five years older than you are, dear reader - who have too much money in the stock market.
Why? I ask them. "I know more now," they tell me. And "I'm not going to panic."
You know what? I don't believe them. They don't know more, and yes, they are going to panic.
Still, most investors probably should keep their current exposure to the stock market, providing that it's a moderate exposure.
After all, people have argued that because of Social Security and our pensions, we have more exposure to fixed-income investments than we think.
Instead of our being 50 percent in stocks and 50 percent in bonds, we may be 40 percent in stocks and 60 percent in bonds - so we should buy more stocks.
But maybe we shouldn't -because, as Mandelbrot argues, the stock market is so turbulent.
**************From an on-line Amazon Review
"...forty years after I started battle on the subject, most economists now acknowledge that prices do not follow the bell curve, and do not move independently. But for many, after acknowledging those points, their next comment is: So what? Independence and normality are, they argue, just assumptions that help simplify the math of modern financial theory. What matters are the results. Do the standard models correctly predict how the market behaves over all? Can an investor use Modern Portfolio Theory to build a safe, profitable investment strategy? Will the Capital Asset Pricing Model help a financial analyst, or a corporate financial officer, make the right decision? If so, then stop arguing about it. This is the so called positivist argument, first advanced by University of Chicago economist Milton Friedman."
Aren't these the attitudes that the majority of practitioners of finance exhibit? I myself, though not a practitioner, held such thoughts. My reasoning had been based more upon the majority's acceptance of these notions-- if everyone else is acting upon the assumptions of normality and independence, I thought, what good will there be adopting a new theory? Isn't finance more akin to social sciences than to natural sciences after all?
It is these beliefs that Mandelbrot sets out to dispel with this monograph. He does so convincingly with great confidence and tenacity. The book consists of three parts, first the examination of the current theories (CAPM, MPT, Black-Scholes), next explanation of his methodology (fractal analysis), and finally of posing questions that should be answered (Mandelbrot asserts that virtually all the current theories should be reexamined under more realistic assumptions). To readers who have followed Mandelbrot's findings even remotely, there are no new advancements recorded in this book per se. He explains with concepts he developed throughout his entire career -- fractals; more specifically self-similarity, long-range dependence (via the Hurst exponent), and fractal decomposition of [trading] time. Mandelbrot's original research without doubt launched an entirely new field of study in science and engineering. Here his objective seems to be persuasion of the general public that an overhaul of existing methods is due. This may be evidenced by the absence of equations in the main text (some are included in the notes/appendix), and by the existence of the second author of this book.
The book is also a trajectory of Mandelbrot's intellectual development. He explains, with characteristic detail, why, how, and when he has become interested in the problems as he did. The result is interesting accounts of historical figures (Bachelier, Hurst, Markowitz, etc) and records of encounters with eminent figures in mathematics and economics (Lévy, Poincaré, Sharpe, and Fama [his student, who went on to invent Efficient Market Theory] to name a few).
There has long been a need for mathematical models that reflect the market more accurately. Should the new models be in form of incremental modifications of existing models or should they be based on an overhaul of the foundation as Mandelbrot proposes? Be prepared to be challenged, if not altogether persuaded, by Mandelbrot's arguments.
The content of this message is not to be construed as constituting market or investment advice. It is intended for educational purposes only. Individuals should consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.
-- posted by Normxxx
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