Semiconductor Capital Equipment Stocks Discussion
- carlb_2
- Kirk
- Mark_J
- SteveT
- Karin
- Kirk
- KirkL
- KirkL
- SteveT
- KirkL
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» carlb_2 - Tundra Semicond IPO -Semi cond stocks
Tundra Semi is a Cdn stock going public as we speak, It should be priced Jan 25 at $9.50 it's a sub of newbridge net, should be on the "W" mkt next wk. I have seen nothing in print on this company, it seems that no IPO's are ever talked about on the internet can anyone tell me how to access IPO's in the future. The TSE is totally useless they report after the fact even the sym will not be posted for afew hrs after listing. Tks Eclipser-- posted by carlb_2
» Kirk - New uses for chips
If anyone wonders why I have my own, personal sector fund in semicaps.... read This article on "bugging trees".We have only just seen the tip of the ice burg on what new uses mankind will find for computer chips. Would you have guessed helping city trees live longer would be on that list?
regards
-- posted by Kirk
» Karin - News
SAN JOSE, Calif., Jan. 27 /PRNewswire/ -- Four of the world'slargest information security and networking vendors -- Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO), Lucent Technologies (NYSE: LU), Network Associates (Nasdaq: NETA) and Sun Microsystems (Nasdaq: SUNW) -- have joined together to establish the Security Research Alliance.
Through the Alliance, the organizations engaged in advanced security research at member companies will work together to help secure the desktops and networks of the future and will collaborate to sponsor educational forums and pursue enhanced funding and development opportunities.
The Alliance will also seek to give senior corporate IT decision-makers a window into the world of advanced security research, the field of research dedicated to next-generation security technology. By opening a direct communication channel between the advanced security research community and IT professionals, the Alliance will enable more informed long-term decision-making for those designing today's networks.
-- posted by Karin
» Kirk - Upgrades: LRCX, TER, AEIS, AMAT & TER
And yet another upgrade
Two of these were on my "5 stocks to buy Portfolio back in Sept 30, 1998"
BancBoston Robertson Stephens Upgrades Semiconductor Equipment Stocks As Industry Continues to Make Strides
January 29, 1999 12:02 PM
SAN FRANCISCO, Jan. 29 /PRNewswire/ -- The following is being issued by BancBoston Robertson Stephens, a member of the National Association of Securities Dealers, CRD number 41271:
BancBoston Robertson Stephens semiconductor equipment analyst Sue Billat today upgraded five semiconductor equipment stocks: Lam Research Corp. LRCX ($32) and Advanced Energy Industries AEIS ($26) to Buy from Long-Term Attractive; Applied Materials AMAT ($59), Novellus NVLS ($68), and Teradyne TER ($59) to Strong Buy from Buy.
"We are upgrading Lam Research to a Buy from Long-Term Attractive, as Lam turns the corner, with bookings rebounding in the second quarter of fiscal 1999," said Billat. "With bookings outpacing the industry, we also are raising our fiscal 1999 earnings estimates from a loss of ($2.50) to a loss of ($1.93) and introducing a new fiscal 2000 earnings estimate of $0.90 per share.
"We believe that key industry players Lam Research, Applied Materials, Novellus Teradyne and Advanced Energy, a supplier to front end suppliers, will benefit from the recent uptick in business in Asia," Billat added. "These players also will benefit from the high percentage of capital expenditures from major chipmakers earmarked for advanced process and test equipment. In addition to increased order activity in Korea, we believe that foundries in Taiwan are running near or at 0.25 micron capacity."
In addition, Billat noted, "We believe that chipmakers are looking for faster deliveries from their suppliers. This trend should, in our view, benefit those equipment companies that have implemented lean manufacturing programs, most notably Applied, Novellus, Advanced Energy, Lam and Teradyne."
Clients interested in receiving more information should contact their salesperson at 415-781-9700.
BancBoston Robertson Stephens is a leading international investment banking firm focused on emerging growth companies. The firm's 55 senior research analysts cover over 575 companies. Additional information is available upon request.
The information contained herein is not a complete analysis of every material fact respecting any company, industry or security. Although opinions and estimates expressed herein reflect the current judgment of BancBoston Robertson Stephens, the information upon which such opinions and estimates are based is not necessarily updated on a regular basis; when it is, the date of the change in estimate will be noted. In addition, opinions and estimates are subject to change without notice. This Report contains forward-looking statements, which involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ significantly from the results described in the forward-looking statements. Factors that might cause such a difference include, but are not limited to, those discussed in "Investment Risks." BancBoston Robertson Stephens from time to time performs corporate finance or other services for some companies described herein and may occasionally possess material, nonpublic information regarding such companies. This information is not used in the preparation of the opinions and estimates herein. While the information contained in this Report and the opinions contained herein are based on sources believed to be reliable, BancBoston Robertson Stephens has not independently verified the facts, assumptions and estimates contained in this Report. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this Report. BancBoston Robertson Stephens, its managing directors, its affiliates, and/or its employees may have an interest in the securities of the issue(s) described and may make purchases or sales while this report is in circulation. BancBoston Robertson Stephens International Ltd. is regulated by the Securities and Futures Authority in the United Kingdom. This publication is not meant for private customers. The securities discussed herein are not FDIC insured, are not deposits or other obligations or guarantees of BankBoston N.A., and are subject to investment risk, including possible loss of any principal amount invested.
SOURCE BancBoston Robertson Stephens
-- posted by Kirk
» KirkL - Hodess on Semicaps
Good, short articleHodess predicted the semiconductor capital equipment industry will fall 5 percent in 1999 but grow 25 percent to 30 percent in 2000 and 40 percent in 2001.
...
Time, though, is of the essence, he said. "You have to be early with this group," said Hodess, who started recommending the stocks in July.
-- posted by KirkL
» KirkL - Why valuations are so high....
To: +Justa Werkenstiff (3396 ) From: +Justa Werkenstiff** SEMI EQUIPMENT INVESTORS -- MUST READ **
Last week, I attended a three day conference in NYC called SEMInvest. Most of the semiconductor capital equipment companies made presentations during the three day event. You will not find what follows anywhere else (even CNBC) and you should file this information away in the back of your mind.
During Applied Material's company presentation at SEMInvest, Joe Bronson admitted that "we don't know how to call cycles at all." He said their forecasting had been disappointing. When asked by this writer if this upturn would be different from the boom-bust cycle of the 1996-1997 in that the chipmakers may have learned something, he referred back to this comment. He just doesn't know. Scott Kulicke said regarding forecasts that "all tend to forecast but never believe them." George Chamillard, CEO of Teradyne, said he was "cynical" of forecasts. He said one should enjoy the cycle when it turns but hunker down quickly when it turns against you.
But don't argue about the limits of forecasting to an analyst at the conference. Forecasting is their job. Despite the fact that Joe Bronson's visibility is six months at Applied Materials and the company's admitted shortcoming in forecasting, analysts -- at least ones who spoke openly on the topic -- are forecasting a multi-year upcycle in the sector. All during the conference, this was the underlying assumption to the high valuations in this sector. Absolutely no analyst I heard speak or spoke to personally disagreed with this proposition. Gunnar Miller, famed analyst at Goldman Sacks, noted the sector's high relative valuation is due to the fact that investors are discounting a multi-year cycle peaking in 2001-2002. Tia Min Pang of Cowen agreed with the cycle length forecast and further noted that capacity problems would drive greenfield fabs later in the cycle. I spoke to a junior analyst at Montogomery and he believed in the multi-year cycle scenario as did Ed White of Lehman Brothers. And so I believe that the analysts are giving this line to their clients and, as a result, this thinking is pushing these stocks up in price.
And so the high relative historical valuations assigned to these stocks (large caps mostly) are seen as justified in the institutional investment community because it is accepted that this cycle will last longer and create higher earnings due to the leverage achieved during the downturn. This year has already been fully discounted as flat. Nobody seems to care about 1999. It is the equivalent to sitting in the waiting room. Investors have already begun to discount the year 2000 and beyond. And when one is making forecasts that far in advance, anyone can assign earnings numbers to those years to justify current pricing. Investors should be concerned if they see anything on the horizon that threatens the likelihood of the multi-year scenario. One such thing would be a capital spending boom which is unsustainable above 20-21% of chip revenues.
So what else would undermine the analyst's confidence? How about DRAM pricing? Nope. After getting tired of watching hundreds of empty suits sit and lap this prognosis up without batting an eye, I questioned a panel of six analysts on this topic. During the AMAT conference call, I commented to the panel that much was made about DRAM pricing being above $10 for 64 megabites. Good point I thought since 38% of AMAT's revenue was from DRAM equipment purchases this past quarter. I asked if DRAM pricing would be a concern for them in the cycle going forward. One analyst commented that there is a need to drive DRAM costs down by investment so implicit in his response was little concern about DRAM pricing. Jay Dehana noted to me that DRAM producers had cut their spending heavily in the last downcycle and that they would have to make it up. So implicit in his response was a lack of concern as well. No other analyst responded.
Thank goodness for Joe Bronson's integrity. He said he had heard this panel's discussion of the DRAM pricing issue and decided to bring it up during his company's presentation later in the day. He said that DRAM pricing bears watching. Tell that to the analyst community, Joe. He also said that his company's "forecast" was based upon DRAM pricing staying above $9 for 64 megabits and he further noted that most DRAM producers were profitable above $7.50. So while the analysts may not have been concerned, Applied Materials was not ignoring this factor in its forecasting model. So if DRAM pricing should decline, investors should take note even if the analysts do not. Joe Bronson said the next four to six weeks were critical as LG Semicon will go back into DRAM production after a period of inactivity due to a labor strike. Bronson also noted that their forecast is based on a 14% increase in PC growth this year and worldwide economic stability. No analyst even mentioned these factors as concerning them.
So now we know why the valuations are so high in the analyst mind. And it is up to us to remain vigilant against their complacency because if their accepted assumptions are undermined institutions will leave these stocks in a heartbeat. We do not want to carry their baggage should this occur.
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| Read about Tulip Mania, the South Sea Bubble and other manias. I ordered the paperback version but wish I had ordered the hardcover version of this classic work. 728 pages! |
-- posted by KirkL
» KirkL - Semiconductor Specialist, Danny Lam
Good link Steve to the new index. Thanks for posting it. Now I can rate "kirks's sector fund" performance against this index!Here is an interview with a good industry guru on what to watch for. I've been too busy to study, but I think Danny Lam makes some key points. Well worth saving this Article
-- posted by KirkL
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