Semiconductor Capital Equipment Stocks Discussion

Top 51. Nov 23, 1998 8:18 AM

» Kirk - Table of revenue, profits and percent profit

Here is an interesting table

Note the position of UTEK

-- posted by Kirk

Top 52. Nov 23, 1998 10:54 AM

» Kirk - Improving orders

To: +Clark Hare (7337 )
From: +Ian Stromberg
Thursday, Nov 19 1998 11:35PM ET
Reply # of 7347

Clark,

The PRIA earnings conference call contains some solid insights.

719 457 0820 549255

Mitch Tyson believes that his company's business may lead the Front End by about 1Q; and that he expects the current quarter to be flat, the next quarter to be up somewhat and the following up substantially.

He further expects that the recover is going to be sudden and sharp.

A very interesting conference call to say the least...

Ian.

-- posted by Kirk

Top 53. Nov 23, 1998 10:56 AM

» Kirk - To:

To: +Richard Palm (7343 ) From: +Gottfried
Sunday, Nov 22 1998 11:20AM ET Reply # of 7347

Richard, AMAT monthly price vs SEMI orders...

AMAT monthly price
http://chart.yahoo.com/t?a=02&b=01&c=96&...

from which I charted SEMI orders vs AMAT price
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5464...

You can see that on the order downleg AMAT price did not follow.

-- posted by Kirk

Top 54. Nov 23, 1998 11:01 AM

» Kirk - New point to consider: wafer vs die volumes

To: +Mark Oliver (7346 ) From: +Katherine Derbyshire Sunday, Nov 22 1998 8:37PM ET

>> Those companies that deal with product on a "per die" basis will not see the same capacity reduction demands. I would guess that the tester, die bonders, packaging type companies would be in this later category. <<

As would exposure tools for lithography.

Katherine

Kirk's Note Katherine brings up a good point! Maybe the really good gains will still be in TER and NVLS rather than UTEK and LRCX? With 0.18um 300mm wafers, the die volume gets HUGE while wafer volume is not growing fast. We might be talking a 6 bagger vs a 5 bagger from here, but still worth considering.

-- posted by Kirk

http://members.aol.com/dancy1/art268/

Top 55. Nov 24, 1998 1:17 PM

» SteveT - How high can we go?

An article by someone who thinks we can higher yet.

-- posted by SteveT

Top 56. Nov 24, 1998 4:40 PM

» KwL - Good Info

Thanks for the article, Steve. I think we can go higher than the past highs, the questions are "when?" and "will we get another buying opportunity as sweet as the Oct 8 one?"

Prudence says have cash ready in case we get a dip to buy more. Take some profits if you are nervous, but wait for the long term rewards if you want to go for the fences. The people that missed the bottom.... Well, it becomes a valuation choice once again and I have't done the numbers recently for putting in more money. I can buy back my tax loss UTEK for nearly what I sold for while my LRCX in the meantime has exactly doubled! Maybe UTEK is a good buy now, especially if you follow Brinker who is usually very good.

Maybe I should start a semicap analysis newsletter to compliment Brinker's marketimer to share my numbers? 8) Right now, I share with others AFTER I make my buys.... Maybe if I got 10 to 20 who would pay the Brinker fee for a monthly update on the numbers..... 8)

Interesting ideas.....

-- posted by KwL

Top 57. Dec 2, 1998 9:48 AM

» KwL - Coverage Initiated by BT Alex. Brown for AMAT

Look like more and more people are starting to like the sector. Recent SEMICON speeches in Japan have suggested the we are at the bottom and a recovery is expected sometime around the 3rd quarter of 1999. THus, the stocks are starting to gain steam. Those of us that saw this several months ago when Intel invested a 6% stake into Micron and bought in then to the semicaps have profited well and should continue to do so. Check out these gains in 3 of my favorites, LRCX, AMAT and UTEK purchased Sept 30... http://www.stockchicken.com/sicontest/in...

list of upgrades and downgrades:
http://biz.yahoo.com/c/a/amat.html

-- posted by KwL

Top 58. Dec 2, 1998 9:58 AM

» Kirk - Signs of 1999 Recovery for Semiconductor Equipment

Here is the Full story from SEMICON Japan

Tuesday December 1, 1:13 pm Eastern Time

Company Press Release

CEOs And Analysts See Signs of 1999Recovery for Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Industry

SEMInvest Japan 98 Investors Conference Highlights New Technologies Driving Future Investment Opportunities

Exerpts:

TOKYO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec. 1, 1998-- Recovery of the global semiconductor equipment and materials industry will begin in 1999 according to financial analysts and industry executives who met here prior to the annual SEMICON Japan exposition.

Opinions on the timing of the recovery ranged from the first quarter to the third quarter of the year. It will be driven by a number of factors, including a return to a balance in supply and demand in semiconductor devices, increased reliance on non-PC applications and fundamental changes in the way chips are made.

The SEMInvest Japan 98 conference, organized by SEMI Japan, an industry association, was the largest and most comprehensive investor event to date in Japan to focus solely on semiconductor equipment and materials companies. More than 100 fund managers and institutional investors attended.

``We are predicting that the semiconductor capital equipment industry will continue to grow even faster than the semiconductor industry, at a compound annual growth rate of 20 - 25 percent. This is what has made it such an attractive industry for investors,'' said Linda Strunk, senior capital equipment analyst for Warburg Dillon Read. ``The high rate of growth is a function of the increasing amount of value semiconductor equipment manufacturers are providing for semiconductor makers.''

-- posted by Kirk

Top 59. Dec 2, 1998 6:19 PM

» Kirk - Leading Indicators for the Sector?

To +Mort (2328 ) From: +Obsessive_Student_Of_Life

Silicon Investor Posting:

I attribute the strong SCE sectorwide rally to ADI. Many analysts believe that ADI is a cyclical indicator. Smart money is encouraged that the upturn may be real going into '99.

Kirk's Notes:

Interesting. First I have heard of this. I use Intel as an advance indicator and Intel started up awhile ago and I then bought into the sector. Maybe both are good indicators? I will have to investigate this further!

Anyone have a good chart that shows actual dollar values for comparing several stocks on the same graph?

-- posted by Kirk