Semiconductor Capital Equipment Stocks Discussion

Top 341. Aug 4, 2000 12:49 PM

» SteveT - Semiconductor Billings

http://www.dismal.com/economy/releases/d... Excerpt; Dollar volume was 5.2% above the previous month and 48.1% above depressed year-ago levels.

With BTB strong recently for the Capital equipment companies and more expected demand for chips how long can the party last?

-- posted by SteveT

Top 342. Aug 6, 2000 11:17 AM

» Kirk - Off Peak Price sorted

Off Peak Price sorted
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk...

Next Year's Estimated P/E ratios
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk...

-- posted by Kirk

Top 343. Aug 6, 2000 2:46 PM

» chz - PowerChips

Kirk....(or any interested participant)....I may
be posting on the wrong thread; but hope not.
Received a flyer from the Geo. Gilder publishing
company touting a new newsletter, and something
called PowerChips...noting that they have potential rivaling Qualcom.

I am among the technically unwashed, but learning.
Any thoughts or sources of information regarding
PowerChips.
Appreciate any insight.
thanks
desertcel

-- posted by chz

Top 344. Aug 6, 2000 3:38 PM

» Felipe - Michael Murphy

I'm new to this board, and relatively new to investing. For the past 6 months, I've spent more time reading and studying than investing though I'm now wading in the shallow end of the pool.

I haven't yet purchased any investment letters but am considering doing so - while I can evaluate the financial performance and strength of a potential investment, I'm not going to try to understand the quality of the underlying technology of specific companies in the tech sector. Thus, it occurs to me that an investment in a news letter (particularly for tech stocks) might be a good idea.

My question is this: do any of you have a strong opinion about Michael Murphy and his letter(pro or con)?

P.S. I apologize that this post is not at the bull's eye of this discussion thread's subject. I'm hoping it's close enough to be accepted as relevant.

-- posted by Felipe

Top 345. Aug 6, 2000 3:50 PM

» SteveT - Welcome Felipe

I am not familiar with Murphy's work. I do occasionally see some of his work posted here, I presume he takes the shotgun approach. Puts out much info, some of it free instead of spending money advertising.

In general I would look for newsletters that offer a free sample for you to look over before you commit. Also I would look at records they claim and compare that against others, this can be hard to do since some newsletter writers start at differing times. Some "start over" after a spell of under performance.

I would hold off and learn as much as you can and make your own decisions. Know what you are doing & why you are doing it. Maybe start with a Index Mutual Fund, like a Wilshire 5000 fund and make that your largest holding. Then as more money is available to invest try a few stocks that you choose. Don't get discouraged if they all don't work out, they never all are big winners. Main thing hang in there and keep building your assets slowly and regularly. Best of luck and check back in with any questions or to share what you have learned.

-- posted by SteveT

Top 346. Aug 6, 2000 4:25 PM

» Felipe - Thanks Steve

Thanks - your points are well taken.

Now I'm far off the subject of this thread, but one of your points is an issue I'm struggling with (I don't expect an answer - I'm just musing here). You mentioned Index funds, and I can't argue with the performance of the past 10 years. While I already have a broad allocation strategy and will undoubtedly put a large portion of my money in mutual funds, I haven't yet come to terms with how much to put in Index funds. My concern relates to the possibility that the market will go sideways for a while here and the possibility that more money may be made in individual stock picks over the next few years.

Understand that, by nature, I'm the type of person who would prefer to put my money into a well diversified portfolio and forget about it (I'm the antithesis of one who likes to trade stocks).

My investment horizon is at least 10 years which tips me toward your suggestion of Index funds. On the other hand, my common sense leads me to believe we'll regress toward the mean (in terms PE multiples and the like) so that indexes will move sideways for a year or two - this tips me to weight my investment strategy to individual stocks.

Having said that, I'm currently begging the question by dollar-cost-averaging into the market (over a 12 month period) with a blend of individual stocks, specialty mutual funds (for international and tech investments) and some in index funds.

Who knows....I'll probably eventually learn that John Bogle is right, but for the moment I'm living a schizophrenic existence - part John Bogle, part Peter Lynch, part Felipe.

Again, thanks for your thoughts. I look forward to getting to know all of you, though I'll be travelling for most of the next 2 weeks so you won't here much from me.

-- posted by Felipe

Top 347. Aug 6, 2000 4:40 PM

» JenL_2 - Felipe - Welcome to Suite 101!

Sounds like you're doing fine already with investing in a diversified portfolio - DCAing into index funds, some sector funds and some individual stocks.

I like what Steve said about doing your own research. Do your own due dilligence on stocks or mutal funds, and then come and discuss your stock and fund choices here to get some feedback.

As for newsletters - like Steve said, always request a free sample first to see if it fits your needs. You might want to check out Kirk's online newsletter also - just click on "newsletter" in his signature to request a free sample.

Good luck on your traveling and see you at Suite 101 when you return......Jen

-- posted by JenL_2

Top 348. Aug 6, 2000 5:03 PM

» SteveT - Felipe

One final thought tonight. If we do get a side ways market for a year or so that is fine with me. Like you my horizon is 10 years or maybe a little more. If the Funds I buy this year or next at flat or lower prices, they will presumably be worth more in 10 years +. I would rather buy at the same price next year as I do this year than buy it higher next year. Something to consider. To me this is why dollar cost averaging over a long time frame is such an easy decision. Glad to hear the day trader companies won't be making any $$$ off you smile

If you must (and most here do) get into individual stocks there is something to be said for buying Large established companies that are profitable. Buy them when for some reason nobody else wants them but you feel they have an excellent chance of turning around. If you can do this in an IRA that makes the 1040 much easier. The down side if they can't turn it around you can't sell at a loss to off set gains elsewhere. It really depends on your comfort level.

-- posted by SteveT

Top 349. Aug 6, 2000 5:04 PM

» Felipe - Jen

I'll take you up on both offers (Kirk's letter and individual stocks). What led me to this thread to begin with was my interest in AMAT: great balance sheet, strong earnings growth, a worldwide market presence that should expand even if at a slower rate (though demand in Asia could conceivably accelerate), forward looking earning that equate to an approximate 20-25 PE multiple at Friday's closing price.

Why aren't investors jumping in? I'm aware of KLIC and the general downgrade of this sector by one of the brokerages (Salomon?) but AMAT still looks like a great buy at these levels.

I have a similar view of LSI Logic. But this is where my lack of knowledge or first hand work experience in the tech sector could lead me to the wrong conclusion (which brings me back to my original post). I wouldn't know a computer chip from a wireless chip from any other chip - I'm basing all my opinions on factors other than first hand knowledge of the industry.

Now I could conclude that I should avoid the tech sector for this reason, but that doesn't seem prudent over the longer term. So while I "ramp" my knowledge, I look for companies that appear to be good buys (i.e., sound, profitable companies that have been beaten up).

I'd appreciate any comments from anyone about AMAT, LSI, or my reasoning on this issue? Thanks in advance.

-- posted by Felipe