Semiconductor Capital Equipment Stocks Discussion
- Mark_J
- Kirk
- Rande
- Rande
- JenL_2
- Rande
- Rande
- JenL_2
- JenL_2
- Kirk
This archived discussion is "read only".
For the corresponding "live" discussions, post in the active topic forum here.
« Previous 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 Next »
» Kirk - Taiwan Semiconductor H1 profits beat forecasts
Taiwan Semiconductor H1 profits beat forecastshttp://biz.yahoo.com/rf/000731/tp33520.h...
Key Points:
- 133 percent year-on-year surge in first-half profits.
- Most growth will be in 2nd half.
- Best times to come in 2002
- communications chips grew to 39 percent of TSMC's second quarter sales
Monday July 31, 5:48 am Eastern Time
Taiwan Semiconductor H1 profits beat forecasts
By Michael Kramer
(Adds more details, comments from TSMC officials)
TAIPEI, July 31 (Reuters) - World microchip foundry leader Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) (NYSE:TSM - news) beat analysts' forecasts with a 133 percent year-on-year surge in first-half profits.
The semiconductor foundry, which makes chips according to client specifications, said January-June profits rocketed to T$23.58 billion, up from T$10.11 in the same 1999 period.
Second quarter profits were T$13.35 billion, up 122 percent year-on-year and well above a Reuters poll of four analysts that had yielded an average forecast of T$11.12 billion.
Harvey Chang, TSMC's chief financial officer, said a pair of mergers around the beginning of 2000 dragged profit margins lower but would pay off later.
``In the first half, our net profits did not rise very much because of the mergers, but most of our growth will come in the second half,'' Chang told an analysts' meeting.
TSMC had originally forecast that the buyout of its memory chip joint venture with Acer Inc and aquisition of rival foundry Worldwide Semiconductor Manufacturing Co could take 2000 earnings per share (EPS) five percent higher or lower.
Chang told analysts on Monday the company now thought EPS impact would be narrowed to three percent, with ``a very good chance that the effect will be positive''.
TSMC's first-half EPS was T$2.12, and Barra's The Estimate Directory's net profit consensus for full-year EPS is T$4.90.
GRAVELY NEEDED CAPACITY
While TSMC secured gravely-needed capacity with the buyouts, both companies were making losses before the mergers. TSMC said gross margins were 41.3 percent in the first half, compared with 44 percent without the merged units.
The mergers, in addition to rising internal production, was expected to lift annual wafer shipments to 3.4 million eight-inch equivalents by the end of 2000 from 1.895 million in 1999.
Even with new capacity online, TSMC said it was working its wafer fabrication facilities at a red-hot 114 percent of rated capacity in the second quarter.
TSMC's chairman, Morris Chang, has shrugged off forecasts that the current semiconductor boom is at its peak, saying the best times would come in 2002.
TSMC also expects to grow 10-20 percent faster than the rest of the semiconductor sector as it attracts new clients.
A growing number of integrated device manufacturers (IDMs) -- companies like Motorola (NYSE:MOT - news) that have traditionally built gadgets from top to bottom -- are cutting costs by outsourcing their production to foundries.
However, some analysts were concerned by TSMC figures showing that IDMs accounted for 34 percent of second-quarter sales, down from 35 percent in the first three months.
Chang said slower growth in IDM sales were because TSMC tended to favour clients with long-standing relationships, such as chip design houses with no production lines of their own, during times of tight capacity.
Meanwhile, IDMs were lining up to seal future partnerships with TSMC. ``We are not just talking about next year with our IDM customers, we're talking about the year after,'' Chang said.
Sales of communications chips grew to 39 percent of TSMC's second quarter sales compared with 38 percent in the first three months.
Chief executive officer F.C. Cheng said that while mobile phone related chips had entered a slow season, he noted strong demand for broadband communications chips, used in devices that surf the Internet at higher rates than traditional phone lines.
TSMC issued results after close of trade on the Taiwan Stock Exchange. On Monday, its stocks fell T$1.00 to T$127.
(US$1 equals T$31)
-- posted by Kirk
» JenL_2 - TA on the QQQ
Thanks for the TA link Rande. One thing about Kilgore's writing - he can sure make an interesting story out of what could be a very dry subject. I still think that TA is a lot of pseudo-science, but the fact remains that enough folks follow it, and make their trades using it, that it becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy. So it's a good tool to learn to use......Jen-- posted by JenL_2
» Rande - Jen,
Jen,Well, I'm pretty much on record as believing TA is largely hogwash, particularly such things as charting and Fibonacci hocus pocus. But it sure seems clear there is a lot of interest, so what the heck. It also seems increasingly evident that Brinker relies heavily on this stuff as well, and there are still a few people that care about that.
-- posted by Rande
» JenL_2 - Kensey's take on Semis
from 8/3 ClearStation.com:remove AMAT on the bounce off the morning lows. (Closing Long Recommendation)
remove AMAT at 69 on the bounce off the morning lows.
selling is related to extreme mark-down in KLIC.
KLIC warned today and the stock has been taken down to 14 and change. KLIC is currently projected to earn $2.89 a share in the fiscal year ending 2001 which yields a forward P/E of under 5. of course, given the warning, estimates will probably be lowered by analysts going forward.
but by how much?
the last earnings report for KLIC resulted in record bookings, sales, and net income for its fiscal Q3 ending July 20. KLIC did 268 million in revenues compared to the year ago 110 million and prior quarter of 222 million.
though the growth 'rate' for KLIC might have seen the top, it doesn't appear that the semi equipment manufacturing industry is going to head towards what briefing refers to as negative growth.
so those with a LONG term horizon may want to consider AMAT/KLIC. of course, a decline of this severe nature requires months of consolidation work. so it is only with a long term horizon that KLIC makes any sense. cyclical semi's hit bottoms when it is perceived that growth has seen a top. no one thinks about KLIC forward P/E of 5 as cheap, they just get out.
given the continued exit from cyclical semi land, high tech growth is outperforming. which is interesting. the decline of late has seen many high tech outperformers getting marked down. and today they are outperforming with BRCD, JNPR, ARBA heading up the list. when i started writing this, AMCC was at 123. it stood at 130 when i got down to here. pausing to do something else, i now see it north of 140. great stuff! so anyone dumping out of growth this AM is probably regretting it now.
turn-around is significant in that it suggests that investors don't think that the entire high tech segment is going to show slowing growth, only those companies in the cyclical area. if everything was getting sold today, that would be of greater concern. i refer back to the case made in the ARBA post where the trick is going to be to try and lock into that part of the high tech sector that will benefit from the productivity investments being made by companies in order to stay competitive and keep their costs down (which as stated should keep inflation in check).
so regardless of the low valuations AMAT and KLIC et al possess, see, i'm going to remove this residual cyclical techs from the recommend list and earmark those dollars towards growth which should continue to outperform. those deciding to stay in AMAT et al should do well over the long term.
note CMVT's bounce on the 200 day EMA? that marker remains the prime area to spot up.
kensey
(see article for chart)
So what's he saying? Within the tech sector we have rotation-rotation-rotation!......Jen
-- posted by JenL_2
» JenL_2 - Nervous Investors sell off Semis
This from 8/4 WSJ:Nervous Investors Sell Off Makers of Chip Equipment
By DONNA FUSCALDO
Semiconductor-equipment stocks were socked as nervous investors reacted to a warning from chip-equipment maker Kulicke & Soffa Industries Inc., although many later recovered.
The Willow Grove, Pa., company said some customers are deferring orders for a chip-making device called a ball bonder. It blamed the deferred orders in part on the inability of its customers to get enough of certain components used to make chips. Those orders are now slated for production early next year, and the deferrals may hurt Kulicke & Soffa's financial performance in the company's current fourth quarter and the first quarter of its next fiscal year, the company said.
Kulicke & Soffa shares plunged nearly 25% on the news, and were trading at $16.63, down $5.50, at 4 p.m. on the Nasdaq Stock Market Thursday.
Investor nervousness quickly spread to other chip-equipment makers, although many rallied later in the day. Applied Materials Inc., for instance, initially dropped more than $7, or roughly 10%, but by 4 p.m. had risen again to $69, down $3.56, on the Nasdaq market. Teradyne Inc. also dropped roughly 20% in early trading, but rose steadily throughout the day, and by 4 p.m. was trading at $53.25, down $5.94, or 10%, on the New York Stock Exchange.
Investors in the chip industry have been skittish since a Salomon Brothers analyst said in June that he believed the chip growth cycle had peaked.
David Wu, an analyst at ABM AMRO Inc., said the equipment stocks are down because investors wrongly drew a comparison to 1997, when the chip industry started sliding into recession at the onset of the Asian economic crisis.
"In 1997, the Asian economic crisis was looming and Kulicke & Soffa was the first to notice things weren't good," he said. However, Mr. Wu predicts the chip industry will continue to see double-digit growth next year unless there is an unforeseen recession.
Edward White, an analyst at Lehman Brothers Inc., said that problems at Kulicke & Soffa are being taken as a sign that the entire equipment sector is slowing, which is not the case. He noted that the type of equipment Kulicke & Soffa manufactures is a lagging indicator, not a leading indicator, of a slowdown. He upgraded the company's stock to a buy from outperform.
Subscribe to WSJ Online @ http://www.wsj.com
Sheesh - so this one bit of news plunged the QQQ to below 84 this AM! We do indeed live in interesting times. The only way to get through this mine-field IMHO is to buy and hold, taking some profits along the way.....Jen
-- posted by JenL_2
» Kirk - Varian says "Early Innings"
Friday August 4, 1:12 pm Eastern TimePress Release
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/000804/ma_varian...
Varian Semiconductor Equipment Reviews Strategic and Technology Leadership Initiatives for Continued Growth
Strong Demand Continues to Drive Revenue and Earnings Growth
GLOUCESTER, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Aug. 4, 2000--At the company's second annual meeting for securities analysts and investors, Richard A. Aurelio, president and chief executive of Varian Semiconductor Equipment Associates, Inc. (NASDAQ: VSEA - news), led presentations that highlighted VSEA's role in developing the technology that produces smaller transistors - the switches that are at the heart of all semiconductor designs - allowing microprocessors to run faster and memory to be more cost effective.
Aurelio, joined by senior management from research and development, sales, marketing, manufacturing and customer service, briefed an audience of over 50 key investment community leaders who traveled to the company's Gloucester headquarters.
``With our tools in virtually every fab in the world and a six-month lead time for new tool delivery, we continue to see strong customer demand driven by both technology and capacity requirements,'' Aurelio remarked. We believe that this cycle is still in its early stages and, as the price of computing power continues to fall, the demand for chips continues to grow rapidly.
This growth in the need for semiconductor chips has only begun to drive demand for Varian Semiconductor's products,'' Aurelio noted. ``Advances that Varian Semiconductor has made, and is making, in capital equipment and services allow semiconductor manufacturers to deliver their smaller, faster and more feature-packed semiconductor chips at a progressively lower cost.''
Key points from the business and technology presentations included:
VIISta - Varian Semiconductor's differentiating technology - A single-wafer technology platform, which is both 200mm and 300mm compatible, offering customers significant advantages in faster throughputs, incident angle control and superior particulate and metals control at all energy levels.
VIISta 10 P2LAD - A proprietary approach to pulsed plasma doping that is a breakthrough in the technology roadmap, opening the door to sub-100 nanometer production.
Kestrel II - A high energy implanter that provides very practical and cost-effective MeV production solutions for customers through faster set up time and more reliable performance.
Varian Control System - A proprietary software architecture that provides breakthrough capabilities in controlling tool performance, complete wafer auditing and electronic diagnosis.
vCare - A complete electronic customer care package combining the latest technologies for remote diagnostics, remote monitoring, remote service management and customer e-commerce.
Financial outlook -Expectation for further operating leverage from revenue growth and profitability resulting from technology leadership, market leadership and customer satisfaction leadership.
Information presented during today's briefing will be available at Varian Semiconductor's website, www.vsea.com. Click on the ``investor relations'' page.
About Varian Semiconductor:
Varian Semiconductor Equipment Associates, Inc. is an industry leader in designing, manufacturing, marketing and servicing ion implantation systems, semiconductor processing equipment used in the fabrication of integrated circuits. Through the process and productivity advantages of single wafer technology, VSEA is providing chipmakers with high throughput, low cost and maximum yields. The company is based in Gloucester, Massachusetts and maintains offices around the world. Its stock is traded on the NASDAQ National Market System under the symbol ``VSEA.'' Additional information and background is available on VSEA's website www.vsea.com.
-- posted by Kirk
« Previous 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 Next »
Please follow the guidelines set forth in the Suite101 Posting Etiquette when adding to the discussion.