Semiconductor Capital Equipment Stocks Discussion
- JenL_2
- KLR
- Jon_Chance
- Kirk
- Jon_Chance
- Kirk
- Jon_Chance
- Kirk
- Kirk
- Kirk
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» JenL_2 - Some SOX Index TA
This from 7/19 Barron's Online:Murphy's Mid-Month Update -- July 2000
By John Murphy
(excerpt)
Semiconductor Stocks Revive Rally
During the first half of July, the PHLX Semiconductor (SOX) Index rallied back to its mid-June peak near 1280. However, the index has been unable to break through that resistance barrier, thanks to selling in the chip stocks over the past two days. Although no serious chart damage has occurred, the loss of upside momentum is a short-term setback for the technology sector.
<img src="http://www.geocities.com/jeninvestor/sox..." width=400 height=235>
Recent rallies in technology and transportation stocks have paced the so-called summer rally (which is often strongest during the month of July). Still, this week's setbacks in both sectors raise concerns, notably whether the best gains of the summer are behind us. That may explain investors' sudden preference for more defensive utility stocks.
What's more, this week's bounce in oil prices -- and oil stocks -- may be triggering second thoughts about the prospects for a more benign inflation outlook.
Subscribe to WSJ & Barron's Online @ http://www.wsj.com
.....Jen
-- posted by JenL_2
» Jon_Chance - Kirk
Is there a unit trust investment that tracks the SOX, i.e., along the lines of QQQ's or SPY's for the NAS 100 or S & P?-- posted by Jon_Chance
» Jon_Chance - Kirk
I think Merrill Lynch has a "holders" product covering this index. I'll let you if that's the case.-- posted by Jon_Chance
» Kirk - The news from Nokia today was GOOD for AMAT and other semicaps.
The news from Nokia today was GOOD for AMAT and other semicaps...Think about it.
Customers want new features like browsers in their phones.
this takes more integration which means smaller feature size . Also, when their stocks get whacked due to not being able to get chips, they might spend a bit more for the chips and even sign long term capacity contracts with UMC, TSMC, etc. to gaurantee fab space. THis will allow fabs to invest more knowing they don't have to run 24x7 at 90% to break even... Fab capacity might start selling on the CBOE for all I know! That is how farmers manage to get profits and remove some of the supply/demand problems from the equation.
The ONLY bad news I could think of would be EITHER a loss of demand or an over supply. Over supply is not going to happen any sooner than 2002 from what Bagley said yesterday... Demand? You think we aren't going to put chips into just about everything? ONLY if you are one of those farmers in Penn. that dive wagons and I bet they might get GPS just for an emergency.
-- posted by Kirk
» Jon_Chance - Kirk
SMH is the ticker symbol for Merrill's semiconductor holder. There is information on this and other holders at www.holdrs.com. I may look into buying some of these if we start retesting the lows in the SOX.-- posted by Jon_Chance
» Kirk - Lens Bottleneck Explained
Katherine writes for the semi industry... Very sharp writer.To: tuck
From: Katherine Derbyshire Friday, Jul 28, 2000 2:46 PM ET
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk...
The lens bottleneck is going to be much more difficult to solve than the drug screening bottleneck. With drug screening, as I understand it, the bottleneck is actually sample and test vehicle preparation. Once you have a sample of a particular drug, and a sample of the test material (virus, abnormal protein, whatever), actually performing the test is fairly straightforward. And so combinatorial chemistry and similar approaches can be very useful because they expedite sample preparation.
In lenses, in contrast, the problem is the fundamental physics of the lens. You have to very slowly heat a very large piece of glass to a given temperature, hold it there for a given time, and cool it down very slowly. The necessary times, temperatures, and heating rates all depend on heat transfer in the glass, defect diffusion rates, and the glass's thermal expansion/contraction behavior. [Insert lots of messy math that I'm too lazy to look up.] Obvious solutions like bigger furnaces don't work because the thermal shock creates more problems than it solves.
Moreover, this kind of issue affects all optical components to some degree, not just those for semiconductor manufacturing. The existing lens companies have a huge incentive to fix the problem, if it can be fixed. And lots and lots of capital equipment is required before you can even do the experiments to work on it. So I don't think this is where the next hot startup is going to come from.
The more interesting alternative would be a solution that avoids the bottleneck by avoiding the lens. Is it possible to write sub-0.18 micron circuit patterns by some means other than projection lithography, while still achieving the throughputs that will pay for all your other process equipment? I'm skeptical, but lots of companies are trying.
Or, less radically, is there an alternative lens design that will achieve the same results with smaller, more easily manufactured lens elements? SVG claims that there is, and they've got it.
Katherine
-- posted by Kirk
» Kirk - Blue Light Specials
Talk about low PEGs! Jeepers!Semicaps sorted by PEG
Semicaps sorted by PE
Semicaps sorted by week price change LRCX went up the most!
Amazing bargains in this list....
Mavis the chimp with a set of darts and that list will probably beat most advisors over the next year!
-- posted by Kirk
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