Semiconductor Capital Equipment Stocks Discussion
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- SteveT
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- SteveT
- KwL
- Kirk
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» Kirk - I see nothing wrong with being overweighted if you understand th
I see nothing wrong with being overweighted if you understand the risk, Pete. The trouble is the sector is ripe for a 20 to 50% pullback so you have to buy and then have the strength of conviction to not sell if it does dive. Also, there is no sign that Asia has bottomed which could extend the time until recovery. In other words, we might hear Bob say "it is a year 2000 story". With that said, I've been buying.Kirk Lindstrom
Editor: Personal Finance and Investing
Reading List
-- posted by Kirk
» Kirk - 2 yrs ago, a good computer came with 16 meg and us heavy users u
2 yrs ago, a good computer came with 16 meg and us heavy users upgraded to 32 Meg and added an additional 32 Meg this yr when prices further eroded.Digital cameras will soon have a new memory module that is 16Meg that costs maybe $1 per Meg. More expensive than film, but reusable. Anyone think this sort of application will consume a large chunk of the memory capacity in the World?
What about cars? Cell phones downloading faxes? Digital Cable Boxes? Anyone have a link to a study on memory demand vs supply for the next 3 yrs?
Kirk Lindstrom
Editor: Personal Finance and Investing
Reading List
-- posted by Kirk
» SteveT - Sorry Kirk can't help you with a link. I agree semis have to go
Sorry Kirk can't help you with a link. I agree semis have to go up a lot in the next 3-5 years. What will digital television do to demand for semi conductors? As I ubderstand it all new broadcast equipment will have to go up as well as the home TVs. It all spells more demand, I think when the industry turns up it will turn very fast. BTW how are you liking TER. If it will stay down til next week I am thinking of buying a few hundred shares.-- posted by SteveT
» Kirk - More bad news....sure am getting tired of bad news!
More bad news....sure am getting tired of bad news!
** MOTOROLA, MOT, the world's No. 3 chipmaker, is expected to announce
Wednesday it will halt construction of a $3 billion chip plant near Richmond, Va. The Richmond
Times-Dispatch reports Motorola is canceling its plans for the plant because of low prices and demand for
chips worldwide. Nine months ago, Motorola said the plant would employ 2,500 people and be the
company's largest investment. Motorola and other chipmakers have struggled recently with weak demand
from makers of personal computers and from Asian customers. (USA Today)
Kirk Lindstrom
Editor: Personal Finance and Investing
Reading List
-- posted by Kirk
» Kirk - Good News.... It is about time! SAN FRANCISCO, Sept 17 (Reut
Good News.... It is about time!SAN FRANCISCO, Sept 17 (Reuters) - The semiconductor industry -- in the grips of one of its worst
downturns ever -- is starting to see the bottom of the slump and is poised for a rebound in 1999,
according to a NationsBanc Montgomery Securities analyst.
``We think the industry is beginning to form a bottom,'' said NationsBanc Montgomery semiconductor
analyst Jonathan Joseph. ``We see microprocessors leading the recovery.''
For a recovery to occur, the personal computer industry needs to continue to grow, since 54 percent of
all semiconductors are used in manufacturing PCs, Joseph said.
Meanwhile, the communications industry must continue its roll-out of new telecommunications
equipment, such as digital wireless handsets, which have been selling briskly, and semiconductor-based networking system software.
In addition, for a solid recovery to take place, the worldwide excess semiconductor manufacturing capacity must be absorbed, while
leading-edge manufacturers must continue with their announced plans to convert their production facilities to the next generation
manufacturing standard of 0.18 micron.
Joseph's stock recommendations among semiconductor manufacturers include Intel Corp. (Nasdaq:INTC - news), Micron Technology Inc.
(NYSE:MU - news) and Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE:TXN - news).
In the semiconductor capital equipment industry, analyst Brett Hodess is forecasting an industry turnaround during the second half of 1999.
He said manufacturers offering new technological advancements will lead the way and his recommended stocks include Photronics Inc.
(Nasdaq:PLAB - news), Dupont Photomask Inc. (Nasdaq:DPMI - news), Applied Materials Inc. (Nasdaq:AMAT - news), Novellus Systems
Inc. (Nasdaq:NVLS - news) Teradyne Inc. (NYSE:TER - news), Veeco Instruments Inc. (Nasdaq:VECO - news) and Ultratech Stepper Inc.
(Nasdaq:UTEK - news).
Kirk Lindstrom
Editor: Personal Finance and Investing
Reading List
-- posted by Kirk
» Kirk - Here are some interesting graphs created by Gottfried Mauersberg
Here are some interesting graphs created by Gottfried MauersbergerShane, these graphs may help a little
orders as reported by SEMI vs AMAT price
orders, shipments and btb together
looks like orders somewhat correlate to AMAT price
GM
Kirk Lindstrom
Editor: Personal Finance and Investing
Reading List
-- posted by Kirk
» Kirk - I think this explains the huge jump in the sector today....
I think this explains the huge jump in the sector today.... Monday, Novellus reported third quarter net income of $7.6 million, or 22 cents a share. While net Novellus' third quarter sales of $107 million were down 31 percent from year-ago sales of $155.1 "Given the severity of the current industry downturn, we are proud of the company performance Smith said the company's aggressive cost control measures resulted in an 18 percent decrease in Novellus' shares jumped about $5.69 to $28.75 in active trading. Shares of other chip equipment "The upside surprise is mostly attributable to sales, general and administrative (expenses) 3.5 For the nine months, Novellus earned net income of $44.7 million, or $1.28 a share, compared with a Revenues for the nine months were $413 million, up 11 percent from sales of $371.2 million for the
<
reported third quarter earnings that were better than Wall Street's expectations, fueling a 25 percent
jump in its stock.
income was down 62 percent versus the year-ago net income of $20.1 million, or 57 cents a share, it
surpassed Wall Street's consensus estimate of 12 cents a share, according to First Call, which
tracks analysts' estimates.
million, due to the ongoing semiconductor industry slump and the resulting slowdown in capital
spending by chip makers who are buying less equipment.
during the quarter," said Robert Smith, executive vice president and chief financial officer of San
Jose, Calif.-based Novellus, in a statement.
operating expenses from the second quarter of 1998.
makers also climbed, including Applied Materials Inc.
semiconductor equipment. Applied shares rose $3.125 to $26.8125.
percent lower than estimate, demonstrating management's ability to contain costs," said Gunnar
Miller, a Goldman Sachs analyst, in a note to clients. "We view this quarter as operationally better
than expected."
net loss of $118 million, or $3.57 a share for the year-ago period, which includes a restructuring
charge of $235.2 million in the second quarter 1997 for layoffs and other cost-cutting measures.
same period a year ago.>>
Kirk Lindstrom
Editor: Personal Finance and Investing
Reading List
-- posted by Kirk
» KwL - Micron To Spend $300 Million In Singapore (Read this as
Micron To Spend $300 Million In Singapore
(Read this as Singapore Government gives Micron Tax incentives to expand facilities in Singapore. Singapore is expensive but tax breaks bring in big business. News is good for semicaps)
Wednesday October 14 10:07 AM EDT
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - U.S. Computer memory chip maker Micron Technology Inc (MU - news) said it will
pump more than $300 million into its Singapore operations over the next two years.
``We anticipate spending over $300 million over the next couple of years to install and upgrade technology,''
said Micron Chairman Steve Appleton.
He said Micron would be able to produce cheaper dynamic random access memory chips (DRAM) with the
new equipment.
``We know that the least expensive unit cost is by using the most advanced technology,'' he added.
Capacity would be jacked up by about 40 percent, Appleton said.
Idaho-based Micron's investment comes at a time when there is a severe oversupply of memory chips and
falling prices.
``In terms of 1998, it will be for the first time in the history of dynamic random access memory, lowered
revenue levels, '' he said.
He brushed off concerns that the increase in capacity would lead to lower prices.
``Over the last two years, we have had a 96 percent price decline. We are not going to continue seeing those
kinds of price declines,'' Appleton said.
He said that in 1996, Micron sold a megabit of DRAM at $3. 75. That now costs $0.16.
Appleton was bullish about the memory chip market, saying Asia's economic crisis had worked in favor of the
supply cycle.
``The Asian crisis has actually been positive. It's restrained capital investment in a market that had too much
capacity,'' he said.
Appleton said South Korean memory chip makers were in financial trouble and could not make further
investments in a capital intensive industry.
South Korea is the world's second largest semiconductor manufacturer after Japan.
Appleton said the DRAM industry was expected to slow to $15 billion this year from a peak of $42 billion in
1995.
But it would pick up again next year, with DRAM revenues hitting about $22 billion, he said.
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/tc/...
Kirk Lindstrom
editor Personal Finance and Investing My Recommended Reading List
-- posted by KwL
» Kirk - To: +Gottfried (7150 ) From: +John G http://talk.tech
To: +Gottfried (7150 )From: +John G
http://talk.techstocks.com/~wsapi/invest...
Tuesday, Oct 20 1998 3:52AM ET
Reply # of 7154
North American Semiconductor Equipment Industry Posts September 1998 Book-to-Bill Ratio of 0.57
MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 19, 1998--The North
American semiconductor equipment industry posted a book-to-bill ratio
of 0.57 for September 1998, it was reported by Semiconductor Equipment
and Materials International (SEMI).
A book-to-bill of 0.57 means $57 in orders were received for each
$100 worth of products shipped.
Three-month average shipments in September 1998 were $839.4
billion. The figure is 16 percent below the August 1998 level, and is
42 percent below the September 1997. Three-month average bookings
decreased in September 1998 to $476.4 million. The bookings figure is
16 percent below the August 1998 level, and 69 percent below the
September 1997 level.
"Total equipment orders of U.S. based suppliers continued to
soften in September as expected. Naturally shipments are on the same
slope. The ratio of bookings to orders, which has declined the three
prior months, stabilized in September," said Dick Greene, principal
analyst with SEMI.
"A hint of good news is hidden in the back-end equipment data.
Three month average order levels for back end equipment edged up four
percent. Another uptick in October may be a leading indicator."
The SEMI book-to-bill is a ratio of three-month moving average
bookings to three-month moving average shipments. Shipments and
bookings figures are in millions of U.S. dollars.
-0-
*T
Month Shipments Bookings Book-to-Bill
April 98 1,416.3 1,102.1 0.78
May 98 1,360.8 1,107.1 0.81
June 98 1,265.5 932.7 0.74
July 98
(final) 1,112.1 717.6 0.65
August 98
(revised) 995.1 568.0 0.57
Sept. 98
(preliminary) 839.4 476.4 0.57
*T
-0-
The data contained in this release was compiled by the
independent public accounting firm of Arthur Andersen LLP, without
audit, from data submitted directly by the participants. SEMI and
Arthur Andersen LLP can assume no responsibility for the accuracy of
the underlying data.
The data are contained in a monthly Express Report published by
SEMI that tracks shipments and orders for equipment used to
manufacture semiconductor devices, not shipments and orders of the
chips themselves
-- posted by Kirk
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