Semiconductor Capital Equipment Stocks Discussion

Top 281. May 10, 2000 11:13 AM

» matttheduck - nauseating

the price action in these stocks makes me want to vomit, and who knows? like "fat bastard" i might just throw up a baby.

if part of the definition of a bear market is that stock prices just go down without regard to merit, we're in a bear market. the market seems to be saying "you know all those huge order backlogs and rosy predictions for enormous future growth from the ceos? they're all lies, these companies are going to do less business the rest of this year and next year."

-- posted by matttheduck

Semiconductor Business News

Top 282. May 23, 2000 7:18 AM

» Kirk - Book-to-bill Strong, but down slightly

Chip equipment posts strongest month ever, though book-to-bill drops slightly

(05/23/00, 09:49:06 AM EDT)
MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif. -- Orders for semiconductor equipment from North American-based manufacturers were a record in the month of April, the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) reported here.

The three-month average of worldwide shipments in April 2000 topped $1.9 billion., which was 11% above the March 2000 level, and 76% percent above the April 1999 shipments of $1.1 billion. April shipments came in 18% above the previous cycle peak of $1.6 billion shipped in November 1997.

The industry's book-to-bill ratio of 1.42, however, was a fraction below last month's 1.45 (see April 21 story). A book-to-bill of 1.42 means $142 in orders were received for each $100 worthof products shipped.

The three-month average of bookings in April 2000 was $2.7 billion, which was 8% above March 2000 and 94% above the $1.4 billion posted in April 1999. April bookings came in 68% above the previous bookings cycle peak -- also in November 1997 -- of $1.6 billion.

"The strength in shipments has been expected given the continued order growth over the past two quarters," said Stanley T. Myers, president of SEMI. "Strong chip demand worldwide and new fab activity, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, are fueling a sustained expansion of the semiconductor equipment sector."

-- posted by Kirk

Top 283. May 23, 2000 7:41 AM

» Kirk - Reuters Book-to-bill Story BTB=1.42

Monday May 22, 9:20 pm Eastern Time
April chip equipment orders growth barely pauses

MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif., May 22 (Reuters) - Semiconductor equipment makers barely saw a pause during April in the torrid growth in orders for the machinery used to manufacture and test computer chips, capping a string of record-breaking months.

North American semiconductor equipment makers posted $142 in orders for every $100 of products shipped, according to preliminary data reported late on Monday by trade group Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI).

By contrast, an average of $145 in orders was received for every $100 in shipments during March, outstripping all previous records in the notoriously boom-to-bust-to-boom-again industry.

Investors use this ``book-to-bill'' data, which reflects a three-month moving average of the ratio of bookings to billings, to gauge the industry's growth prospects.

Bookings rose to $2.7 billion, up 10 percent from March's $2.45 billion, SEMI said.

The industry has been on a strong upward growth trend since late last year, reflecting a rebound from a slump that stretched back to November 1997, the previous industry highpoint before an equipment sales glut socked the industry.

Chipmakers have been increasing capital budgets to buy, build and equip production facilities.

Several Wall Street analysts had said ahead of the release of Monday's data that a let-up in order growth was expected after five months of new records.

With demand for computer chips far outstripping production capacity, especially for circuitry used in products such as cellphones, analysts believe that any pause in growth for the underlying equipment used to produce electronics will prove temporary and regain momentum during the course of this year.

Semicondutor equipment makers include companies such as Applied Materials Inc. (NasdaqNM:AMAT - news), the dominant player in the industry, Novellus Systems Inc. (NasdaqNM:NVLS - news), Lam Research Corp. (NasdaqNM:LRCX - news) and Teradyne Inc. (NYSE:TER - news).

News sure doesn't seem to be enough to give the SOX index a kick off the bottom….

-- posted by Kirk

Top 284. May 23, 2000 7:55 AM

» Kirk - maturing of the cycle

Robert Maire from Bear Stearns:

The semiconductor equipment book to bill came in at 1.42, better than our expectations, and street expectations. This was down from a revised 1.46 in March reflecting a slightly healthier shipment level.

The front end book to bill ratio followed the overall trend and was 1.38.

The back end was up very modestly at 1.51 from 1.50.

We think the street reaction to the book to bill number should be positive as we were expecting more of a decline in the numbers.

Orders continued to grow, up a healthy 10% sequentially to $2.7B. Shipments improved and were up 11% to $1.9B. The fact that shipment rates have improved gives us some comfort that the industry is ramping shipments successfully. The fact that the book to bill ratio did not drop off as sharply it could have suggests that we are just seeing a maturing of the cycle and that shipments are catching up to orders as compared to weakness in the order flow.

Stocks have been under pressure over the last week and this should help ease some fears of a rapid deceleration.

-- posted by Kirk

Top 285. May 25, 2000 7:23 AM

» Rande - Speaking of new fabs.

Speaking of new fabs....

Intel announced a $2 billion expansion of it's New Mexico fab yesterday.

Atmel Corp. announced plans to double the output of it's French fab facility within nine months.

And this, from KLA-Tencor:

SAN JOSE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--May 24, 2000--KLA-Tencor Corp. (Nasdaq:KLAC) today announced it has agreed to purchase up to 43 acres of land in Livermore, Calif., to build a new campus.
Located in the Shea Business Park, adjacent to Interstate 580, the campus will initially include two new 120,000-square-foot buildings dedicated to manufacturing and customer service. Construction on the new campus is scheduled to begin during the summer of this year.
"With the current boom in the semiconductor industry, we've had to expand our manufacturing capacity to meet the growing demand for our yield management products and services," stated Ken Schroeder, president and chief executive officer of KLA-Tencor. "Establishing a new campus in Livermore will allow us to draw upon the large local pool of talent and will provide new employees who live in the area with an opportunity to bypass the often traffic-clogged commute to Silicon Valley. It will also allow current employees that live or plan to live in the Tri-Valley and Central Valley areas the opportunity to work more closely to home and reduce their commute time. The new campus will also be near enough to our main corporate offices in San Jose and Milpitas to leverage the resources available at those campuses."

-- posted by Rande

Top 286. Jun 2, 2000 8:36 AM

» Kirk - Good stuff from Sue Billat at Robertson Stephens

Good stuff from Sue Billat at Robertson Stephens
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk...

Robertson Stephens Raises Forecasts for Semiconductor Equipment Industry

SAN FRANCISCO, June 1 /PRNewswire/ -- Robertson Stephens Managing Director and Senior Semiconductor Equipment Analyst Sue Billat raised her capital spending forecasts for the semiconductor equipment industry.

``We are raising our semiconductor capital equipment spending forecasts for 2000 and 2001 based on the continued imbalance that we see in chip supply and demand,'' said Billat. ``In particular, we believe that a shortage of DRAMs is imminent and that this will drive a near term step up in capital equipment spending.''

``We are raising our forecast for front end equipment industry growth projection for 2000 and 2001 to 51 percent and 45 percent, from 43.5 percent and 35.8 percent, respectively,'' said Billat. ``By our estimates, this corresponds to front end equipment industry revenues of $15.2 billion in 2000 and $21.6 billion in 2001.''

``For the back end, we are maintaining our 45 percent growth estimate in 2000 and raising our growth projection for 2001 to 42 percent, from a range of 30 to 35 percent,'' said Billat. ``By our estimates, this corresponds to back end equipment industry revenues of $15.2 billion in 2000 and $21.6 billion in 2001.''

``We believe that continued shrinks and the adoption of new materials such as copper and low k dielectrics, and the transition to 300mm diameter wafers, will continue to drive equipment industry growth through 2001 and that steady increases in bookings will continue to support the stocks going forward,'' said Billat.

-- posted by Kirk

Blue-Chip Chip Stocks

Top 287. Jun 14, 2000 1:36 PM

» JenL_2 - Jubak Likes Chip Stocks

JB posted this 6/13 Juback's Journal from MoneyCentral.msn.com to the "Investment Guru" thread:

.....Jen

-- posted by JenL_2

Top 288. Jun 19, 2000 12:21 PM

» Rande - Semi-caps and chip stocks in general on fire today.

Semi-caps and chip stocks in general on fire today. And, yet for the moment, there is at least one exception. Who weeps for UTEK? Currently down 1/4.

-- posted by Rande

www.semi.org Press Release

Top 289. Jun 20, 2000 6:58 PM

» Q_out - May semiconductor orders up marginally

Orders for semiconductors were up in May by 1% over April, while shipments were up by 6% pushing the book-to-bill ratio down to 1.30. This is down from the March book-to-bill ratio of 1.46.

"While the rate of growth is moderating and may reflect a second quarter adjustment, the May data represents the eighth consecutive month of continued bookings growth and record order levels for semiconductor manufacturing equipment," said Stanley T. Myers, president of SEMI.

Even so, orders were 81% above year-ago levels.

Q_out

-- posted by Q_out