Semiconductor Capital Equipment Stocks Discussion

Top 251. Mar 10, 2000 6:34 AM

» Kirk - Big Muscles

Big Muscles

Maria Bartalomo today before the market opened

"The toughest thing about being a semiconductor analyst is you have to keep raising your targets."

What a problem to have, eh? 8)

Of course, the stuff hits the fan when they have to lower targets as it could be a signal of the slowdown or end of the present cycle.

This link tells of a conference to discuss the good times.

The broad, sustained recovery in the semiconductor equipment and materials industry and prospects for continued investment opportunity is fueling interest in the fourth annual SEMInvest conference, March 21-23, at the Roosevelt Hotel in New York.

I'd love to listen or read a transcript from this:

An executive roundtable discussion featuring Jim Bagley, chairman, Lam Research Corp.; Ed Segal, president and CEO, Metron Technology and an executive from Kulicke & Soffa Industries will be moderated by Jay Deahna, Morgan Stanley and Gunnar Miller, Goldman Sachs on March 23.

This conference could spur another run to higher highs in the stocks. Could be really exciting for AMAT and LRCX as they should be split by then.

I'm getting big muscles from lifting all the coins I am making in this sector into the wheelbarrow to bring to the bank (yes, I have taken some profits so there are fresh coins in my bank).

-- posted by Kirk

Top 252. Mar 19, 2000 7:00 AM

» Kirk - CNBC Appearance of CEO & SFAM Earnings

CNBC Appearance of CEO & SFAM Earnings

SFAM announces earnings Monday

The CEO, Richard Faubert, of SpeedFam-IPEC {SFAM} is scheduled to be on CNBC Mar 17 2000 7:29PM ET. Full SquakBox Guest List

I'll be away (another ski trip) but would appreciate it if anyone catches the interview if they can post a quick summary.
Thanks

-- posted by Kirk

Top 253. Mar 21, 2000 1:35 PM

» SteveT - Feb. book to Bill

Comes in at 1.41

Full Story

-- posted by SteveT

Top 254. Mar 25, 2000 7:32 AM

» Kirk - IT'S A GOOD TIME to be a chip-equipment maker.

IT'S A GOOD TIME to be a chip-equipment maker.
From SmartMoney.com
http://www.smartmoney.com/
(Must read article for semiconductor capital Equipment investors)

Excerpts:

After hitting a low in 1998, the industry is in the throes of a bona fide upswing. New technology is being developed and shipped, revenue is increasing, earnings per share are jumping and stocks are percolating. These are giddy times.

Given all that, just imagine what a chip-equipment industry conference is like. The mood, to put it mildly, is optimistic.

Industry players gathered this week for the fourth annual SEMInvest 2000, a conference on growth trends and investment opportunities sponsored by Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International, a global trade association.

The three-day conference, held in New York, served as a forum for company CEOs to tout their companies while discussing the industry's outlook with analysts and investors. David Wu, a Wall Street Journal All-Star analyst with ABN AMRO, summed up the mood best in his opening remarks on Tuesday: "This is a year to be happy and don't worry."

Fortunately, this carefree quip can be backed up with some decent fundamentals. The success of semiconductor-equipment makers is, unsurprisingly, inextricably linked to the chip industry. And right now, with the growing demand for silicon-intensive gadgets and technology, chips are faring pretty well. While the Semiconductor Industry Association is forecasting chip sales to increase 21% this year, 20% next year and 12% in 2002, Wu sees an even more vigorous upturn. He expects chip sales to rise 40% this year, 46% next year and then 25% in 2002.

And chipmakers, which spent $25 billion on chip equipment last year, should jack up that spending to $41 billion in 2002, according to SEMI.

PCs still account for the largest share of semiconductor demand, but chips for communications and consumer electronic devices have become the latest drivers in the chip market. The transition to chips with smaller wires is also fueling the need for more advanced equipment. And as chipmakers start using new materials, like copper, and larger wafers to cut chips from, the shift will require batches of new equipment, all to the delight of the companies that manufacture these pricey machines.

---Snip---

But when should investors start worrying that the bottom is ready to fall out? When analysts or pundits start pontificating about how all this new demand means the chip industry is going to be less cyclical. "I think that's a bad sign called an 'exit' sign," jokes ABN AMRO's Wu.
For now, however, there's no need to rush out that door.

-- posted by Kirk

Top 255. Mar 25, 2000 7:58 AM

» Slick - Nice Article, Kirk

Here's what caught my eye:

The mean PEG ratio for the 24 that were left was 1.71

And LRCX's peg was 1.75, so right in the middle of the equipment makers. Thanks for the link.

Best Regards---Slick

-- posted by Slick

Top 256. Mar 25, 2000 8:08 AM

» Kirk - Yes, good eye for the PEG.

Yes, good eye for the PEG. Makes me happy that you and others are getting very savvy on what to look for. 8)

Remember, the PEG is not the only issue. Management in most of these companies are really sandbagging so they can meet their numbers if the market slows and blow them away if they market continues doing well. Then there are other management teams, like at UTEK, that do all they can and still haven't yet earned a profit for two quarters in a row. Probably much less room to sandbag at UTEK or SFAM as there is barely enough sand to fill a bag (sand...pretty cute in that wafers are made from sand!)

-- posted by Kirk