Semiconductor Capital Equipment Stocks Discussion


  1. Kirk
  2. Rande
  3. Kirk
  4. Kirk
  5. Kirk
  6. SteveT
  7. Kirk
  8. Kirk
  9. Bill_Tippett
  10. Kirk

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Top 240.   Feb 3, 2000 10:41 AM

» Kirk - BofA's Hodess Bullish on Semi's

Outlook for Semiconductor Capital Equipment Market Should Remain Strong Into 2002, According to Banc of America Securities' Analyst

SAN FRANCISCO, Calif., Feb. 3 /PRNewswire/ -- The following is being issued by Banc of America Securities, a member of the National Association of Securities Dealers, CRD number 26091:

The industry that bottomed in late 1998 will see 35-40 percent growth in 2000 and could post 40 percent growth in 2001 as well, according to Banc of America Securities' senior semiconductor capital equipment analyst, Brett Hodess.

''The details for the semiconductor equipment growth cycle have fallen into place,'' said Hodess. ''Wafer fabrication utilization rates have increased for the fifth quarter in a row, to reach 95 percent.''

Hodess made his comments to investors yesterday at the 17th Annual Banc of America Securities' Technology Conference, which runs through Friday, February 4th at the Ritz Carlton in San Francisco. This year's Tech Week will feature 195 presentations from public and private companies representing a broad spectrum of investment opportunities in communications services, computer and peripherals, distribution, networking, semiconductor, software and Internet industries.

Wafer fabrication utilization rates have been driven by demand in leading edge technologies with sub 0.3-micron utilization at more than 96%. Most of this capacity has come from technology upgrades. Orders for entire new semiconductor fabrication facilities should boost growth in 2001 and 2002, says Hodess.

New fab activities are much more lucrative for suppliers and make projections for the group very promising. In fact, Hodess says that today's investment outlook resembles the outlook for the semiconductor cycle in early 1993.


Consumer and communications electronics are the key drivers in this cyclical up turn in the industry. Demand is spurred by lower prices and better performance that results from advanced semiconductor production technologies. New materials are a key component of these new technologies, Hodess says.


Hodess believes that investors should evaluate large and small cap firms in this sector with different criteria. In the large cap sector, Hodess recommends low P/E stocks like Lam Research (Nasdaq: LRCX - news; LRCX, $140.00, Buy)[1] and Novellus Systems (Nasdaq: NVLS - news; NVLS, $54.38, Strong Buy)[1]. He also favors Applied Materials (Nasdaq: AMAT - news; AMAT, $148.25, Buy)[1], KLA-Tencor Corp. (Nasdaq: KLAC - news; KLAC, $65.81, Buy)[1] and Teradyne Inc. (NYSE: TER - news; TER, $74.81, Buy). In the small cap sector, Hodess is partial to companies in well-defined industries that can leverage expertise into market share growth. In the area of outsourcing, he favors Amkor Technology (Nasdaq: AMKR - news; AMKR, $38.25, Buy)[1,2], MKS Instruments (Nasdaq: MKSI - news; MKSI, $35.88, Strong Buy)[1,2], Advanced Energy (Nasdaq: AEIS - news; AEIS, $54.63, Buy)[1] and Metron Tech N.V. (Nasdaq: MTCH - news; MTCH, $22.25, Buy)[2]. Other small cap stocks he recommends include Cymer Inc. (Nasdaq: CYMI - news; CYMI, $58.88, Buy)[1,2]; Photronics Inc. (Nasdaq: PLAB - news; PLAB, $31.13, Buy)[2]; Photon Dynamics (Nasdaq: PHTN - news; PHTN, $60.00, Buy); and niche companies like Electro Scientific Industries (Nasdaq: ESIO - news; ESIO, $90.00, Strong Buy)[1] and Veeco Instruments (Nasdaq: VECO - news; VECO, $60.38, Strong Buy)[1,2].


Banc of America Securities LLC (BAS), a subsidiary of Bank of America Corporation, is a full-service investment bank and brokerage firm. With principal offices in San Francisco, New York City and Charlotte, BAS employs more than 4,000 associates in offices around the country, and with affiliates, offers capabilities worldwide.


Bank of America Corporation, with $633 billion in total assets, is the holding company for the largest bank in the United States, with operations in 21 states and the District of Columbia.


1. Banc of America Securities LLC currently maintains a market in this security.


2. Banc of America Securities LLC was manager of a public offering for the following companies in the last three years: MTCH, MKSI.


3. Banc of America Securities LLC was co-manager of a public offering for the following companies in the last three years: CYMI, AMKR, VECO.


Banc of America Securities LLC has performed investment banking or other services for the following companies in the last three years: PLAB, VECO.


In the ordinary course of business, Banc of America Securities LLC has obtained a substantial position in these companies: MKSI.


Banc of America Securities LLC is the exclusive financial advisor to Photronics, Inc., in its acquisition of Align-Rite International, Inc. PLAB.


Banc of America Securities LLC is acting as exclusive financial advisor to Veeco Instruments, Inc., in connection with its acquisition of Ion Tech. VECO.


SOURCE: Banc of America Securities


http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/000203/ca_banc_of_1.html

-- posted by Kirk



Top 241.   Feb 7, 2000 9:47 AM

» Rande - Healthy chip report:

Healthy chip report:

In the Chips

-- posted by Rande



Top 242.   Feb 11, 2000 7:30 PM

» Kirk - Top 10 Chippers and their numbers

Top 10 Chippers and their numbers


Top 10 semiconductor equipment suppliers

1999 Ranking 1998 Ranking Supplier 1999 revenues % change from 1998

1 1 Applied Materials $5.457 billion 51.5%

2 2 Tokyo Electron Ltd. $2.634 billion 39%

3 3 Nikon $1.430 billion 10.7%

4 7 ASM Lithography $1.276 billion 47%

5 4 Teradyne $1.210 billion 26%

6 5 KLA-Tencor $1.049 billion 19%

7 6 Advantest $955 million 5.1%

8 8 Lam Research $894 million 19%

9 9 Canon $751 million -2%

10 10 Hitachi $743 million 25%

Source: VLSI Research Inc.

Good story and good tables: http://www.semibiznews.com/story/OEG2000...

SAN JOSE -- The big just keep getting bigger in the semiconductor equipment industry. A new ranking of chip-production systems suppliers shows the top 10 companies growing 31.1% in 1999 vs. a 12% increase in total revenues for the industry segment last year.

Applied Materials Inc. "beat all expectations by achieving 51% growth in sales last year," noted the annual ranking released this week by VLSI Research Inc. Applied's sales reached $5.5 billion in 1999, more than twice the tool revenue of No.2 Tokyo Electron Ltd., which came in at $2.6 billion, said the San Jose market research firm.

"Collectively, [the top 10 suppliers] had revenues of $16.4 billion," said VLSI Research, which has placed the total sales in semiconductor equipment markets at $29.6 billion in 1999. The market research firm is predicting a 28% growth in semiconductor equipment revenues in 2000 as chip makers begin to launch new wafer fab projects.

Last year, ASM Lithography of the Netherlands vaulted from 7th to 4th place with $1.3 billion in revenues, according to estimates by VLSI Research. The growth was driven by shipments of deep-ultraviolet steppers, said the research firm. ASML shipped 217 steppers in 1999 compared to 162 in 1998, said VLSI Research.

Only Canon Inc. showed a decline in sales last year, according to the ranking. VLSI Research said the Japanese lithography supplier saw revenues slip 2% to $751 million from sales in 1998.

-- posted by Kirk



Top 243.   Feb 15, 2000 11:03 AM

» Kirk - SpeedFam-IPEC Announces Multi-Unit Orders From TSMC

SpeedFam-IPEC Announces Multi-Unit Orders From Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturer

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/000214/az_speedf...

New Customer to Use Orbital and Rotational Systems For All CMP Processes
CHANDLER, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Feb. 14, 2000--SpeedFam-IPEC, Inc. (Nasdaq:SFAM - news), a leading supplier of high-throughput chemical mechanical planarization (CMP) systems for the semiconductor industry, today announced multi-unit orders for both Avant Gaard 776 orbital and Auriga-C rotational CMP tools from a leading core logic and graphics device supplier in Taiwan. This new customer plans to deploy the tools in a new factory in Hsin-chu, Taiwan for the processing of 8-inch wafers, as it ramps up production of semiconductor devices with geometries of 0.25 micron and 0.18 micron. The SpeedFam-IPEC systems will support all CMP process steps, including oxide, tungsten and STI (shallow trench isolation). To date, multiple units have been shipped for factory installation.

``These orders illustrate the product flexibility and leverage available to SpeedFam-IPEC customers as they expand and diversify their manufacturing capacity,'' said Richard J. Faubert, president and chief executive officer of SpeedFam-IPEC. ``Our customer has aggressive growth plans that require increased wafer-processing capacity and a seamless transition to smaller line widths. With the broadest range of CMP product offerings in production today, we can deliver comprehensive solutions to complex needs, ahead of our competitors.''

Dataquest, the leading market research firm, estimates that the market for CMP systems will grow from $1.04 billion in 1999 to $2.5 billion in 2004, representing one of the fastest growing segments of the semiconductor equipment market.

<img src=http://chart.neural.com/servlet/GIFChart... width=450 height=250>

-- posted by Kirk



Top 244.   Feb 18, 2000 7:29 AM

» Kirk - New Chart

I updated "Kirk's Semiconductor Equipment Investment Resource Page" to include a new table showing the ratio SEMI orders/semicond shipments.

The page is listed on my Finance Page
http://pw2.netcom.com/~kirk_69/Finance.h...
under "Kirk's Most Useful Links:"

Please visit my sponsors while checking out the better version of the new chart!

<img src=http://www.geocities.com/gottfried/ratio... width=450 height=306>

enjoy!

-- posted by Kirk



Top 245.   Feb 18, 2000 12:23 PM

» SteveT - Kirk

I do not claim to know how to read charts so correct me if I am wrong but, looks like a good time to take profits or sell all together???

-- posted by SteveT



Top 246.   Feb 18, 2000 3:14 PM

» Kirk - Timing Capital Equipment Cycles

Steve,
If I knew for sure, this would be pretty boring and I would be very rich.

-- posted by Kirk



Top 247.   Feb 22, 2000 5:39 PM

» Kirk - JANUARY 2000 BOOK-TO-BILL 1.34

HUGE News!!

Semiconductor Equipment Bookings Up 15 Percent Over Previous Month

Story
MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif., February 22, 2000 -- The North American-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted a third-straight month of record orders in January 2000 and a Book-to-Bill ratio of 1.34, it was reported by Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI). A book-to-bill of 1.34 means $134 in orders were received for each $100 worth of products shipped.

The three-month average of worldwide shipments in January 2000 was $1.6 billion. The figure is two percent above the December 1999 level, and is 82 percent above the January 1999 shipments level of $890 million. The three-month average of bookings in January 2000 was $2.2 billion. The bookings figure is 15 percent above December 1999 and 119 percent above the $997 million posted in January 1999.

January bookings came in 33 percent above the previous cycle peak of $1.63 billion booked in November 1997. The January ratio of 1.34 is the third highest in the history of the SEMI Express Report and the highest in almost five years.

"We are pleased to see the robust order level for equipment. It confirms the strength of the current market cycle," said Stanley T. Myers, president of SEMI. "Continuing strength and industry stability requires that spending remain aligned with underlying semiconductor market dynamics."

The SEMI book-to-bill is a ratio of three-month moving average bookings to three-month moving average shipments for the North American semiconductor equipment industry. Shipments and bookings figures are in millions of U.S. dollars.




MonthShipmentsBookingsBook-to-Bill
August 991,440.71,565.11.09
September 991,412.91,510.71.07
October 991,484.31,609.51.08
November 99 (final)1,528.51,694.51.11
December 99 (revised)1,587.41,892.01.19
January 2000 (prelim.)1,620.42,177.81.34

The data contained in this release was compiled by the independent public accounting firm of Arthur Andersen LLP, without audit, from data submitted directly by the participants. SEMI and Arthur Andersen LLP can assume no responsibility for the accuracy of the underlying data.

The data are contained in a monthly Express Report published by SEMI that tracks shipments and orders worldwide of North American-based manufacturers of equipment used to manufacture semiconductor devices, not shipments and orders of the chips themselves. The February 2000 Express Report is scheduled for publication on March 20, 2000 (subject to change).

Based in Mountain View, Calif., SEMI is an international trade association serving more than 2,300 companies participating in the $65 billion semiconductor and flat panel display equipment and materials markets. SEMI maintains offices in Austin, Beijing, Boston, Brussels, Hsinchu, Moscow, Seoul, Singapore, Tokyo and Washington, D.C. For more information about SEMI, including the SEMIndex, a global stock index of 65 publicly traded equipment and materials companies, visit www.semi.org.

ASSOCIATION CONTACTS:



Mike Droeger/SEMI
Ph: 650.940.6953
E-mail: mdroeger@semi.org
Jonathan Davis/SEMI
Ph: 650.940.6953
E-mail: jdavis@semi.org

-- posted by Kirk



Top 248.   Feb 23, 2000 4:51 AM

» Bill_Tippett - Front-end vs. back-end BTB?

OK Kirk! Now it's time to post the full report like you did last month.

-- posted by Bill_Tippett



Top 249.   Feb 23, 2000 8:21 AM

» Kirk - SEMI orders/semiconductor shipments

I've added Gottfried Mauersberger's latest chart showing SEMI orders vs. semiconductor shipments to my semi links page:

http://pw2.netcom.com/~kirk_69/SemiLinks...

-- posted by Kirk



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