Semiconductor Capital Equipment Stocks Discussion

Top 211. Jan 10, 2000 6:12 PM

» Kirk - Semiconductor-making equipment demand seen up

40% growth?
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/000110/i8.html

This just keeps getting better and better!!!!

LRCX has a p/e of just under 40 (2000 earnings) now and a 40% growth rate gives it a PEG ratio of 1.00

Hmmmmmm.....

-- posted by Kirk

Top 212. Jan 11, 2000 7:04 AM

» Kirk - Dueling forecasts for chip industry given at conference<p>

Dueling forecasts for chip industry given at conference

From http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk...

PEBBLE BEACH, Calif., Jan 10 (Reuters) - The $147 billion semiconductor industry, which has just completed its first year of recovery after a three-year slump, heard different versions of its future at an industry conference on Monday.

Two market researchers presented diverging data to an industry known for its boom and bust cycles at the Industry Strategy Symposium, a conference sponsored by SEMI, the semiconductor equipment trade group.

IC Insights Inc., a market research firm based in Scottsdale, Ariz., forecast 22-23 percent growth for the year 2000, which is in line with a forecast last October from the Semiconductor Industry Association. The SIA said it is looking for the industry to jump 21 percent in revenues to about $174 billion in 2000.

``Unless there is some big inventory overhang, that is a pretty conservative forecast,' Bill McClean, president of IC Insights, told the conference. He said that there has been some buildup of inventories in selective areas, mostly in the areas of analog chips and programmable logic devices, but the companies using these chips, such as cell phone makers will burn through their excess inventories this quarter.

But another market researcher, Advanced Forecasting Inc., put a wet blanket on the rosy predictions, saying that there is an 80 percent chance that another industry recession is just around the corner.

``I'm not going to deliver good news,' said Moshe Handelsman, president of Advanced Forecasting, based in Cupertino, Calif., saying that in the second half of 2000, there is an 80 percent chance of another slowdown. Handelsman declined to divulge the specific factors fueling his predictions, citing proprietary methods, but he did note that the industry is ``overheating again' much as it did in 1995 before the last recession, which started in 1996.

``This industry is notorious for double bookings and not penalizing,' Handelsman said, referring to a widespread industry practice. Last month, analysts said they were afraid that companies who use semiconductors in their products were double or even triple ordering chips, as they stocked up ahead of Y2K, and now some are caught with excess inventories.

Separately at the conference, Clark Fuhs, a Gartner Group/ Dataquest analyst, said that he believes that foundries, companies which manufacture semiconductors on a contract basis for chip companies, will become even more prevalent than they are currently, due to the high cost of chip manufacturing.

Fuhs said that he believes that 40 to 50 percent of semiconductor manufacturing will be done out of a foundry, versus about 5 to 10 percent currently.

-- posted by Kirk

Top 213. Jan 12, 2000 6:21 PM

» matttheduck - amat buys etec

Applied Materials buys Etec
Chip-equipment maker's stock swap valued at roughly $1.7 billion
January 12, 2000: 7:38 p.m. ET

NEW YORK (CNNfn) - Applied Materials said Wednesday that it would buy Etec Systems in a stock deal valued at roughly $1.7 billion.
Applied Materials (AMAT), the world's largest supplier of equipment used in semiconductor wafer manufacturing, said it would exchange .649 shares of its stock for each share of Etec's (ETEC) stock.
Based on Wednesday's closing price of 127-1/6, Applied Materials would be paying roughly 82-5/16 for each of Etec's 21.6 million outstanding shares, which is a more than 60 percent premium over Etec's closing price of 49-7/8.
"They are paying more than $80 for a $50 stock, so clearly Etec is getting a good deal here," said Milind Bedekar, an analyst at Salomon Smith Barney in San Francisco.
Etec, which is headquartered in Hayward, Calif., develops, manufactures and markets the equipment that produces high precision photomasks, which is the term for the equipment that is used to print the complex circuit patterns onto semiconductor wafers.
The average selling prices for such equipment range between $10 million and $12 million per unit, which has proven difficult for the company in the past, according to Eric Ross, an analyst at Thomas Weisel Partners.
Because of the extraordinarily high average selling prices, if the company misses its sales by even one unit, it almost certainly misses its quarterly earnings targets as well, prompting investors to punish the stock, Ross said.
By being taken into Applied Material's fold, the company will be better able to absorb the quarter-to-quarter bumps, Ross said.
Applied Materials posted fiscal 1999 sales of roughly $4.9 billion, while Etec toted up revenue of $240 million for the year.
For its part, Applied Materials adds a key element to its portfolio of products and services. Etec currently garners more than 80 percent of the global market share for mask-pattern generation equipment.
"Etec reaps the benefit of substantially more resources," Ross said.
The acquisition, which will be accounted for as a pooling-of-interests, is still subject to shareholder and regulatory approval.

-- posted by matttheduck

Top 214. Jan 12, 2000 8:43 PM

» JenL_2 - AMAT & ETEC

Interesting Matt - Let's look at some charts:

AMAT & ETEC 1 YR Chart

AMAT & ETEC YTD Chart

....Jen

-- posted by JenL_2

Top 215. Jan 14, 2000 6:58 AM

» Kirk - Another $1.6B to the pot

What is an extra $1,600,000,000 between friends?

Alert: Intel Sees 2000 Cap Spending About $5 Bln, Up From 1999'S $3.4 Bln (NasdaqNM:INTC)

....yadda yadda about Intel.....

Capital spending for 2000 is expected to be approximately $5.0 billion, up from $3.4 billion in 1999. The higher anticipated capital spending is the result primarily of expenditures related to the development of next generation 0.13-micron process technology for both 300 mm and 200 mm, in addition to increased spending on new fab construction and equipment purchases to add 0.18-micron capacity.

I like to see the above. Time are good when you can expand capacity. Good News for and from Intel that is GREAT news for the capital equipment sector.

-- posted by Kirk

Top 216. Jan 17, 2000 7:41 PM

» Kirk - Courtney Smith Likes Semi Cap Equipment

Load up now

We are in the middle of a multi-year cycle of exploding demand for semiconductors. This will drive an even more explosive demand for equipment for making semiconductors.

and more...

Now I think is the time to load up on the semiconductor equipment manufacturers. This industry has already started to boom but there is plenty of profit still to come. These profits are coming from two main drivers.

I should have mailed her a free sample of "Financial Savvy" last year when we were buying these REALLY CHEAP! -giggle...

Often this sort of piling on can come near a top, but my sources in the industry say it truely is booming so we print money until the ink runs out and triple booking implodes and we start another down cycle.

-- posted by Kirk

Top 217. Jan 17, 2000 8:10 PM

» matttheduck - some people just work too hard

she stars on "ally mcbeal" and writes a newsletter and for cbs marketwatch? unbelievable.

-- posted by matttheduck

Top 218. Jan 17, 2000 8:26 PM

» matttheduck - jds uniphase buys etek dynamics

wasn't jen talking about etek in chat? i get the buy-out price at $211/share, based on jdsu closing friday @ $192.1875

JDS buys E-Tek for $15b
Bandwidth lust drives all-stock deal uniting fiber-optic companies
January 17, 2000: 11:18 p.m. ET

SAN JOSE, California (Reuters) - Fiber optic equipment maker JDS Uniphase Corp., extending an aggressive expansion to meet telecommunications service providers' hunger for bandwidth, Monday unveiled plans to merge with E-Tek Dynamics Inc. in an all-stock deal the firms valued at roughly $15 billion.
The companies said E-Tek holders will get 1.1 shares of JDS for every E-Tek share held and E-Tek will become a wholly held unit of JDS once the deal is completed. E-Tek also is a fiber-optic equipment maker.
The deal is conditional upon approval by E-Tek shareholders and regulators, the companies said. JDS, the world's leading supplier of parts for fiber optic systems in telephone networks, and E-Tek also announced that they signed a mutual supply deal to let them immediately boost the supply of certain products to customers.
The companies said the decision to unite was driven by the "unprecedented growth" of the telecommunications industry. "As a result of the explosive demand for bandwidth, service providers have accelerated deployment of fiber optic systems in their networks," the companies said.
JDS, co-based in Nepean, Ontario, and San Jose, Calif., and San Jose-based E-Tek said their marriage would allow them to grow operations faster and bring more volume and a broader range of products to customers more swiftly.
E-Tek has about 2,450 employees and posted sales of $72.5 million in its second quarter ended Jan. 1, 2000. JDS, the product of a merger last year between California-based Uniphase Corp. and Ottawa's JDS FITEL, employs more than 8,200. Its sales totaled $230.1 million in its first quarter ended Sept. 30, 1999.

-- posted by matttheduck

Top 219. Jan 18, 2000 4:24 AM

» Bill_Tippett - Courtney Smith is a he not a she...different person.

-- posted by Bill_Tippett