Semiconductor Capital Equipment Stocks Discussion

Top 171. Aug 20, 1999 9:11 AM

» Roger_Babson - Kirk...

... wrote:

"I DON'T agree with Roger. I think new orders rushed in very fast and now they are just settling down."

Why am I not surprised? WHY DO YOU THINK NEW ORDERS ***RUSHED*** IN? It is called "capital-market myopia" at this point in the cycle.

More output with falling prices and no growth in market share at higher "real" costs occur at peaks in economic expansions. Marginal returns fall, and capital spending and capacity are forced to be cut back. This is happening right in front of the eyes of everyone. Do you actually believe that semi CEOs do not see this? Come on, Kirk!

This is a classic end-of-boom phenomenon. More higher cost capacity with falling prices and shrinking markets do not translate to growth in revenues and earnings. Period. Massive consolidation ahead.

Regards,

-- posted by Roger_Babson

Top 172. Aug 20, 1999 9:16 AM

» Roger_Babson - Kirk...

..., BTW, why the heck do you interpret the charts you posted as BEING BULLISH FOR SEMI EQUIP
COMPANIES???

-- posted by Roger_Babson

Top 173. Aug 24, 1999 9:21 PM

» KirkL - A MUST READ article

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/990824/ny_wa...

The Wall Street Transcript Publishes Semiconductor Equipment Industry Issue

The best sector stocks are attractive to investors with a 9-12 month horizon, Zlotnikov asserts, ``We have 'outperform' recommendations on four stocks: Novellus, KLA-Tencor, Applied Materials, and Lam. Within this group you have very different risk/reward profiles. I would say the greatest upside could accrue to Lam Research. Their recently introduced products should help them stem the market share erosion that they experienced over the last year or so.''

Go Lam!

But there are sector firms that haven't participated in the upturn, FitzGerald declares, ``The smaller companies that are not offering tools targeting advanced technology modes -- 0.25 micron and 0.18 micron processes have not benefited from the improved operating environment.''

That explains UTEK in a nutshell!

Game consoles are an emerging growth sector, Maire explains, ``If you look at the percentage of silicon value, it's $150 worth of silicon in a $200 game console. That's a very good contribution to the overall semiconductor industry, given that the value of the silicon content is a higher percentage of the selling price than that of a PC.

MANY analysts missed this subtle shift where the PC is no longer the driving force in semiconductors. Their loss! Savvy investors have made a ton and will make more!

<img src=http://www.internetcount.com/1868270820.cgif width=5 height=5>

-- posted by KirkL

Top 174. Aug 25, 1999 6:10 AM

» Bill_Tippett - Andrew Vance's RadarView

For any who actively follow the semi equipment stocks, I highly recommend Andrew's newsletter (Webpage at http://www.radarview.com and his profile is available at Silicon Investor). It ain't cheap ($500 per year) but you will probably make your subscription cost the first week! His approach tends to be a somewhat short-term oriented (using buy zones and lower limit triggers to protect profits) to take advantage of the volatility in this sector but you can also apply his information to a buy-and-hold strategy if you don't want to bother with short-term movements. I have no financial connection with Andrew or his newsletter but just wanted to pass along my recommendation FWIW as a very satisfied customer.

-- posted by Bill_Tippett

Top 175. Aug 25, 1999 2:13 PM

» SteveT - Good read Kirk

Isn't UTEK working on .18 and .25 equipment? Is the problem they can't seem to make it work consistently?

Is anyone you know of working on X-RAY lithography?

-- posted by SteveT

Top 176. Sep 21, 1999 7:58 AM

» KirkL - Earth Quake in Taiwan

I would guess that the Earth Quake in Taiwan will remind companies that HAVING second sources for major components is vital to a healthy business.

cNBC talking heads and analysts are talking about the impact and how the loss will be zero to 2 weeks inventory, but they are missing the point that the big companies are getting a wakeup call as to the importance of second sources for vital components. I look at this as positive for the semicap industry as capacity will be added as insurance....

-- posted by KirkL

Quake rocks Taiwan; damage to foundries unknown

Top 177. Sep 21, 1999 8:15 AM

» KirkL - News from Taiwan

Taiwan quake update: Some fabs won't be in production for days

Chips get hit after Taiwan's quake from CBS Marketwatch.

Interesting in marketwatch story that they mention Apple getting hit because Mot is slow to deliver needed G4 processor chips. Seems MOT cut some production capacity and has yield problems and is not delivering all the chips that Apple can sell.

In GOOD times, this was the reason companies like HWP and IBM made their own microprocessors as shortages and high prices in good times would slow their growth and eat into profits as the companies like MOT and Intel held them by the short hairs and could charge extra...

What was I saying about "Second sources and captive markets"?

Things get bad enough....and the big companies will do it themselves again (I doubt this will happen, but I would not reject investment in second sorce technology as a result of this). Anyway, this should help semicaps long term.

-- posted by KirkL

Quake rocks Taiwan; damage to foundries unknown

Top 178. Sep 21, 1999 8:36 AM

» KirkL - News from Taiwan (with working links)

Taiwan quake update: Some fabs won't be in production for days

Chips get hit after Taiwan's quake from CBS Marketwatch.

What was I saying about "Second sources and captive markets"?

-- posted by KirkL

Top 179. Sep 21, 1999 7:17 PM

» KirkL - AUGUST 1999 BOOK-TO-BILL RATIO OF 1.08

NORTH AMERICAN SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT INDUSTRY POSTS AUGUST 1999 BOOK-TO-BILL RATIO OF 1.08

Year-Over-Year Bookings Up More Than 150 Percent

Full Story

MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif., September 21, 1999 -- The North American-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted an August 1999 Book-to-Bill ratio of 1.08, it was reported by Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI). A book-to-bill of 1.08 means $108 in orders were received for each $100 worth of products shipped.

-- posted by KirkL