Real estate : Detailed Data on California Bubble and Some Explanation

» Jas_Jain - Detailed Data on California Bubble and Some Explanation

February 20,2006

Detailed Data on California Bubble and Some Explanation

For a year or so I have had the theory that the California Housing Bubble (CHB) began in San Diego, Orange County and L.A., in that order, where prices rose rapidly in 2001 and 2002, and then spread to other parts of the state. In most of the outlying areas of L.A., there was no bubble in the spring of 2003 but it was in full swing at the beginning of 2004. All the available data validates this theory. Indications are that with some exceptions prices peaked during 2005Q3, most in August and some in September. Marin County (who cares?) notwithstanding, San Diego has led the deflation of the bubble, thus far, showing the smallest YoY gains and double-digit losses from the peak. From the middle of 2003Q4 to the middle of 2005Q3, the median price of Single Family Homes (SFH) in California increased 47.9% over 21 months.

The attached table shows the prices and gains in all California counties and cities and most of the towns from Dec’03 to Sep’05, period of 21 months with the greatest bubble intensity, or “the bubble period.” The data includes SFH and condos and has been arranged in descending order of gains over the period indicated.

The Jan’06 data just released showed that the Marin County in the San Francisco Bay Area is doing the worst, but the signs were there much earlier from the loss in Sausalito and meager gains for Mill Valley during the boom period. Also, San Diego and Orange County are cooling fast with losses over the last six months.

The Data Put Kibosh On LOCATION and LIMITED SUPPLY OF LAND Theory and Support the Bubble Theory

Among the towns with the largest gains during the bubble period the two largest towns (or cities, if you prefer) are – Bakersfield and San Bernardino, with close to 90% gains over the 21-month period. Just to remind people, the prices in Bakersfield were anything but low during Dec’03 and the housing boom there began in 2002. I have traveled thru (passing them on my way) both these towns several times over the past year and I can assure you that there is no dearth of land to build in these two cities and I don’t think that permits to build are hard to get (I am told that Bakersfield issued permits for 53,000 units over a 12-month period to mid-2005!).

If many Americans know of these two cities then it is likely to be due to the fact that in 2001 (or 2002) San Bernardino was number two in violent crimes in all of the US and Bakersfield used to a butt of Johnny Carson’s jokes. I am not aware of anything very desirable, or attractive, about these two cities. Oh, BTW, San Bernardino is the largest populated area close to San Andreas fault (just a few miles to the south) in Southern California. One of these days, or years, the Big One is going to hit. And San Bernadine is not a safe place to be, from nature or from human beings! There is room for 250,000 homes, and more, in Bakersfield to satisfy any demand that may arise out of any fancy people might have to live there.

I don’t know much about Mira Loma, but there is nothing there to justify 138% gain in 21 months other than the bubble mentality. Bubble is when even junk goes up in price. Bubbles are like tides that lift all boats. We shall all find out who were swimming naked when the tide goes out!

Jas

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Table

County/Cities Sep'05 Price Dec'03 Price Dec'03 to Sep'05 Gain

MIRA LOMA $530,000 $222,500 138.2%
TWENTYNINE PALM $148,250 $065,000 128.1%
CRESTLINE-- $268,000 $125,000 114.4%
ADELANTO-- $273,750 $135,250 102.4%
APPLE VALLEY $289,500 $150,000 93.0%
SAN BERNARDINO $282,500 $148,000 90.9%
WASCO------- $179,000 $094,000 90.4%
BARSTOW----- $155,000 $081,500 90.2%
Kern County $255,000 $135,750 87.8%
BAKERSFIELD $272,000 $145,000 87.6%
HESPERIA--- $290,000 $156,250 85.6%
South LA---- $381,000 $209,500 81.9%
DESERT HOT SP $260,000 $143,000 81.8%
WEST SACRAMENTO $481,500 $265,000 81.7%
LOMA LINDA $462,250 $254,500 81.6%
SANGER------ $285,000 $157,500 81.0%
OAK PARK-- $705,000 $391,000 80.3%
BELLFLOWER $490,000 $272,000 80.1%
LOS BANOS $410,000 $230,500 77.9%
VICTORVILLE $308,000 $175,000 76.0%
INDIO-------- $367,500 $209,750 75.2%
SAN YSIDRO $489,500 $280,000 74.8%
BLOOMINGTON $340,000 $195,000 74.4%
ROSAMOND $270,000 $155,000 74.2%
MERCED------ $344,750 $198,500 73.7%
COMPTON----- $335,000 $193,000 73.6%
RIDGECREST $175,250 $101,000 73.5%
GLENDALE-- $654,500 $380,000 72.2%
INGLEWOOD $418,000 $243,750 71.5%
REEDLEY----- $292,250 $170,500 71.4%
FONTANA----- $429,000 $250,409 71.3%
TEHACHAPI $281,000 $164,500 70.8%
ATWATER----- $340,000 $200,000 70.0%
SEASIDE----- $760,000 $449,500 69.1%
YUCCA VALLEY $215,500 $127,500 69.0%
LYNWOOD----- $405,500 $240,000 69.0%
UPLAND------ $591,250 $350,000 68.9%
TAFT---------- $135,000 $080,000 68.8%
RIALTO------ $356,000 $211,000 68.7%
PALMDALE-- $344,250 $205,000 67.9%
SAN JACINTO $330,000 $197,000 67.5%
SELMA------- $242,500 $145,000 67.2%
LANCASTER $301,000 $180,000 67.2%
Long Beach-- $412,500 $247,500 66.7%
San Bern CO. $350,000 $210,000 66.7%
ONTARIO----- $399,000 $239,500 66.6%
Merced County $350,000 $211,250 65.7%
SALINAS----- $610,000 $369,500 65.1%
CARMEL VALLEY $1,200,K $727,500 64.9%
SAN JUAN CAPI $587,000 $356,000 64.9%
DANA POINT $875,000 $531,500 64.6%
KINGSBURG $269,000 $163,500 64.5%
BALDWIN PARK $385,000 $235,000 63.8%
NORTH HOLLYWOOD $540,000 $330,000 63.6%
COLTON------ $272,636 $167,000 63.3%
Yolo County $480,000 $294,500 63.0%
BRENTWOOD $651,250 $400,000 62.8%
PORT HUENEME $447,000 $275,000 62.5%
ALHAMBRA-- $519,500 $320,000 62.3%
CORONADO $1,350,K $832,500 62.2%
HEMET------- $305,500 $189,000 61.6%
PERRIS------ $355,000 $220,000 61.4%
HAWTHORNE $517,500 $322,000 60.7%
HUNTINGTON PARK $371,500 $231,500 60.5%
FILLMORE--- $544,000 $339,000 60.5%
HERMOSA BEACH $1,200,K $750,000 60.0%
CATHEDRAL CITY $360,000 $225,000 60.0%
DOWNEY------ $550,000 $344,000 59.9%
PANORAMA CITY $430,000 $269,000 59.9%
SANTA ANA $548,000 $344,000 59.3%
FAIRFIELD-- $438,000 $275,000 59.3%
NEVADA CITY $477,500 $300,000 59.2%
PLAYA DEL REY $560,000 $352,000 59.1%
WOODLAND $461,500 $290,500 58.9%
RIVERSIDE-- $405,000 $255,000 58.8%
RUNNING SPRINGS $239,500 $151,000 58.6%
CHINO------- $475,000 $300,000 58.3%
PACOIMA----- $445,000 $282,000 57.8%
SCOTTS VALLEY $839,000 $532,000 57.7%
San Joaquin CO $425,000 $270,000 57.4%
BYRON------- $665,000 $422,500 57.4%
FALLBROOK $629,000 $400,000 57.3%
MONTCLAIR $385,000 $245,000 57.1%
EL MONTE--- $447,000 $285,000 56.8%
SUN CITY---- $345,000 $220,000 56.8%
Stanislaus CO $372,864 $238,000 56.7%
CHATSWORTH $616,500 $394,500 56.3%
POMONA------ $378,500 $242,750 55.9%
ROSEMEAD--- $490,000 $315,000 55.6%
HACIENDA HT $575,000 $370,000 55.4%
OXNARD------ $590,000 $380,000 55.3%
SHINGLE SPRINGS $486,500 $313,500 55.2%
MOORPARK--- $599,000 $386,000 55.2%
DUARTE------ $450,000 $290,000 55.2%
WILDOMAR-- $479,000 $309,500 54.8%
BANNING------ $260,000 $168,000 54.8%
MORENO VALLEY $352,000 $227,773 54.5%
GARDENA------ $479,000 $310,000 54.5%
NORTH HILLS $515,000 $333,500 54.4%
MISSION HILLS $530,000 $343,500 54.3%
DIXON------- $503,500 $326,500 54.2%
HARBOR CITY $535,000 $347,000 54.2%
HIGHLAND-- $352,500 $229,000 53.9%
ARCADIA------ $710,000 $461,500 53.8%
RESEDA------- $500,000 $325,000 53.8%
WESTMINSTER $600,000 $390,000 53.8%
NORWALK------ $445,000 $289,750 53.6%
SE San Fer Val $575,000 $374,500 53.5%
SAN LORENZO $586,500 $382,000 53.5%
NORTHRIDGE $723,500 $471,500 53.4%
NEWPORT COAST $1,399,K $912,500 53.3%
SANTA PAULA $455,000 $297,000 53.2%
SYLMAR------- $490,000 $320,000 53.1%
COVINA------- $465,000 $303,750 53.1%
BENICIA------ $635,250 $415,000 53.1%
BEAUMONT $352,500 $230,500 52.9%
NORCO------- $576,000 $376,978 52.8%
FRESNO------ $265,000 $173,500 52.7%
LAKE ARROWHEAD $389,000 $255,000 52.5%
PICO RIVERA $440,000 $288,500 52.5%
LONG BEACH $457,000 $300,000 52.3%
S. LAKE TAHOE $475,000 $312,250 52.1%
El Dorado CO $488,000 $322,000 51.6%
NE San Fer Val $500,000 $330,000 51.5%
WINNETKA- $530,000 $350,000 51.4%
VENTURA----- $605,000 $400,000 51.3%
SAN FERNANDO $468,000 $310,000 51.0%
CASTRO VALLEY $670,750 $444,500 50.9%
TUJUNGA----- $520,000 $345,000 50.7%
ANAHEIM----- $565,000 $375,000 50.7%
Oakley------- $497,050 $330,000 50.6%
REDLANDS-- $399,000 $265,000 50.6%
BIG BEAR CITY $282,250 $187,500 50.5%
TUSTIN----- $615,000 $409,000 50.4%
Palos Ver Est $1,600,K $1,065,K 50.2%
San Fer Val $533,000 $355,000 50.1%
Fresno County $270,000 $180,000 50.0%
LOS ANGELES $495,000 $330,000 50.0%
North East LA $420,000 $280,000 50.0%
CARSON------ $477,500 $318,500 49.9%
WEST COVINA $494,000 $330,000 49.7%
PARAMOUNT $327,000 $218,500 49.7%
VENICE------ $1,025,K $685,000 49.6%
WEST HILLS $622,000 $416,000 49.5%
Placer County $515,000 $345,000 49.3%
STANTON----- $407,500 $273,500 49.0%
RIO VISTA---- $423,500 $284,500 48.9%
SUISUN CITY $446,000 $300,000 48.7%
SEAL BEACH $825,000 $555,000 48.6%
LAKE ELSINORE $396,250 $266,750 48.5%
PALO ALTO $1,112,K $749,500 48.4%
DANVILLE---- $1,000,K $673,750 48.4%
WATSONVILLE $654,750 $441,250 48.4%
WALNUT CREEK $675,000 $455,000 48.4%
Riverside CO $399,000 $269,000 48.3%
ALTADENA-- $630,000 $425,000 48.2%
HAYWARD----- $555,750 $375,000 48.2%
RANCHO PALOS V $1,100,K $742,500 48.1%
WHITTIER-- $472,727 $320,000 47.7%
VAN NUYS-- $517,000 $350,000 47.7%
SANTA BARBARA $1,062,K $719,000 47.7%
WALNUT------ $655,500 $444,000 47.6%
Solano County $450,000 $305,000 47.5%
WOODLAND HILLS $750,000 $508,500 47.5%
ANTIOCH----- $513,000 $348,000 47.4%
GARDEN GROVE $545,000 $370,000 47.3%
CAMARILLO $655,000 $445,000 47.2%
SAN DIMAS--- $557,500 $379,000 47.1%
BUENA PARK $555,000 $377,500 47.0%
SUN VALLEY $485,000 $330,000 47.0%
CASTAIC------ $525,250 $357,500 46.9%
CORONA------- $535,000 $364,250 46.9%
MONTEREY PARK $479,000 $326,500 46.7%
SARATOGA-- $1,314,K $896,000 46.7%
LOS ALAMITOS $872,500 $595,000 46.6%
AZUSA-------- $425,000 $290,000 46.6%
DAVIS-------- $537,500 $367,000 46.5%
MONROVIA---- $549,000 $375,000 46.4%
NEWARK------- $600,000 $410,000 46.3%
VALLEJO------ $435,000 $297,500 46.2%
Los Angeles CO $497,000 $340,000 46.2%
SUNLAND------ $522,500 $357,500 46.2%
NATIONAL CITY $420,000 $287,500 46.1%
MOUNTAIN VIEW $701,000 $480,000 46.0%
Ventura County $598,750 $410,000 46.0%
SAN GABRIEL $595,000 $407,500 46.0%
NAPA--------- $598,500 $410,000 46.0%
SAN PABLO $485,000 $332,500 45.9%
BURBANK------ $595,000 $408,000 45.8%
Mar Vista---- $804,877 $552,000 45.8%
YUCAIPA------ $365,000 $250,500 45.7%
TRUCKEE------ $570,000 $392,500 45.2%
RANCHO MIRAGE $579,750 $399,500 45.1%
Richmond--- $460,000 $317,500 44.9%
SANTA CLARITA $542,500 $374,500 44.9%
W San Fer Val $550,000 $380,000 44.7%
AGOURA HILLS $718,000 $496,250 44.7%
Contra Costa CO $557,000 $385,000 44.7%
GLENDORA $506,250 $350,000 44.6%
EL DORADO HILLS $641,000 $443,750 44.5%
South Bay--- $650,000 $450,000 44.4%
HUNTINGTON Bch $700,000 $485,000 44.3%
Monterey County $598,750 $415,000 44.3%
CARLSBAD--- $764,000 $530,000 44.2%
SPRING VALLEY $452,500 $314,000 44.1%
Santa Barb CO $511,250 $355,000 44.0%
LAKEWOOD $540,000 $375,000 44.0%
SIMI VALLEY $580,000 $403,500 43.7%
MANHATTAN BEACH $1,578,K $1,100,K 43.5%
LA QUINTA--- $501,000 $350,000 43.1%
Sonoma County $579,000 $404,955 43.0%
CANOGA PARK $515,000 $360,500 42.9%
SAN CARLOS $925,000 $648,000 42.7%
LA HABRA-- $497,000 $348,500 42.6%
CONCORD------ $522,500 $366,500 42.6%
BIG BEAR LAKE $335,000 $235,000 42.6%
ORANGE------- $625,000 $438,500 42.5%
Napa County $643,000 $451,500 42.4%
VALLEY VILLAGE $623,000 $437,500 42.4%
SAN PEDRO $540,000 $379,500 42.3%
TORRANCE-- $625,000 $439,250 42.3%
FREMONT------ $660,000 $464,000 42.2%
Downtown LA CNT $725,000 $510,000 42.2%
CLAREMONT $574,000 $404,091 42.0%
Pinole-------- $565,000 $398,000 42.0%
PALM SPRINGS $340,000 $240,000 41.7%
SAN CLEMENTE $872,500 $616,500 41.5%
SOUTH EL MONTE $417,000 $295,000 41.4%
ROWLAND HEIGHTS $547,000 $387,000 41.3%
BREA--------- $635,000 $449,500 41.3%
MORGAN HILL $747,500 $530,000 41.0%
Nevada County $479,500 $340,000 41.0%
MONTEBELLO $422,500 $300,000 40.8%
VALENCIA--- $528,000 $375,000 40.8%
Pittsburg----- $450,000 $320,000 40.6%
COSTA MESA $730,000 $520,000 40.4%
GRANADA HILLS $550,000 $392,000 40.3%
Hercules------- $477,500 $340,500 40.2%
LOMPOC------- $445,000 $317,500 40.2%
REDONDO BEACH $812,500 $580,000 40.1%
CANYON COUNTRY $462,000 $330,000 40.0%
Orange County $610,000 $436,000 39.9%
PASADENA---- $594,500 $425,000 39.9%
Santa Cruz CO $699,000 $500,000 39.8%
SANTA MARIA $455,000 $326,500 39.4%
SAN RAFAEL $800,000 $574,500 39.3%
GILROY------- $689,000 $495,000 39.2%
GRASS VALLEY $415,000 $298,250 39.1%
SANTA CLARA $659,500 $475,000 38.8%
SAN BRUNO $660,000 $476,000 38.7%
Beach Cities $970,000 $700,000 38.6%
OJAI----------- $587,500 $424,000 38.6%
VISTA-------- $468,500 $339,000 38.2%
WILMINGTON $380,000 $275,000 38.2%
SAN JOSE---- $642,500 $465,000 38.2%
Alameda County $587,000 $425,000 38.1%
EL CAJON---- $462,500 $335,000 38.1%
CHINO HILLS $586,000 $425,000 37.9%
MISSION VIEJO $647,250 $469,500 37.9%
WINCHESTER $450,000 $326,546 37.8%
SANTEE------- $440,500 $320,000 37.7%
CERRITOS--- $640,000 $465,000 37.6%
WEST HOLLYWOOD $625,000 $454,500 37.5%
NEWHALL------ $378,000 $275,455 37.2%
LAGUNA NIGUEL $715,000 $522,000 37.0%
MENIFEE------ $410,000 $299,500 36.9%
UNION CITY $600,000 $438,500 36.8%
CUPERTINO $875,000 $639,500 36.8%
DELANO------- $165,500 $121,000 36.8%
SUNNYVALE $711,000 $520,000 36.7%
APTOS-------- $777,000 $569,000 36.6%
SAN MATEO $800,000 $586,750 36.3%
TEMECULA--- $472,500 $347,000 36.2%
Sacramento CO $371,000 $272,500 36.1%
Santa Clara CO $660,000 $485,000 36.1%
PLEASANTON $756,000 $556,000 36.0%
TRABUCO CANYON $867,500 $639,000 35.8%
SOLEDAD------ $451,750 $333,000 35.7%
LAKE FOREST $569,500 $420,000 35.6%
PACIFICA----- $725,000 $535,000 35.5%
RANCHO SANTA MA $537,500 $397,000 35.4%
FULLERTON $562,500 $415,750 35.3%
DIAMOND BAR $532,000 $395,000 34.7%
Westchester $740,000 $550,000 34.5%
YORBA LINDA $789,000 $586,500 34.5%
PACIFIC GROVE $804,500 $599,000 34.3%
LA PALMA---- $657,500 $490,000 34.2%
TEMPLE CITY $560,000 $417,500 34.1%
FOUNTAIN VALLEY $707,000 $527,500 34.0%
LAWNDALE--- $420,000 $313,500 34.0%
EL SEGUNDO $716,250 $535,000 33.9%
POWAY-------- $604,000 $452,500 33.5%
SAN MARCOS $517,000 $387,500 33.4%
NOVATO------- $780,500 $585,000 33.4%
SAN LEANDRO $540,000 $405,000 33.3%
ESCONDIDO $470,000 $352,500 33.3%
BOULDER CREEK $480,000 $360,000 33.3%
PALM DESERT $392,500 $295,000 33.1%
SANTA CRUZ $730,000 $550,000 32.7%
REDWOOD CITY $775,000 $585,000 32.5%
VACAVILLE-- $437,000 $330,000 32.4%
OAKLAND------ $482,000 $365,000 32.1%
MILPITAS--- $598,250 $455,000 31.5%
San Mateo CO $755,000 $575,000 31.3%
ALISO VIEJO $569,000 $433,500 31.3%
San Fran CO $735,000 $560,000 31.3%
SAN FRANCISCO $735,000 $560,000 31.3%
THOUSAND OAKS $655,000 $499,500 31.1%
CAMPBELL--- $675,000 $515,000 31.1%
PLACENTIA--- $574,000 $438,500 30.9%
IMPERIAL BEACH $480,000 $367,500 30.6%
S. SAN FRAN $711,000 $545,000 30.5%
LIVERMORE $589,500 $452,000 30.4%
CALABASAS $1,218,K $936,000 30.1%
DUBLIN------- $648,068 $499,500 29.7%
LA VERNE---- $518,750 $400,000 29.7%
DALY CITY--- $680,000 $525,000 29.5%
BURLINGAME $1,419,K $1,100,K 29.0%
ALAMEDA------ $686,000 $532,000 28.9%
RAMONA------- $515,000 $400,000 28.8%
Marin County $815,000 $635,000 28.3%
Martinez------ $510,000 $398,000 28.1%
CHULA VISTA $555,500 $434,000 28.0%
LEMON GROVE $440,000 $344,000 27.9%
Pleasant----- $580,500 $455,000 27.6%
RANCHO CUCAM $447,500 $351,250 27.4%
OCEANSIDE $482,000 $379,250 27.1%
FOOTHILL RANCH $637,000 $501,500 27.0%
PLACERVILLE $330,000 $260,000 26.9%
San Diego CO $505,000 $398,500 26.7%
EMERYVILLE $475,000 $375,000 26.7%
MENLO PARK $890,000 $703,750 26.5%
IRVINE------- $633,500 $501,000 26.4%
LADERA RANCH $625,000 $496,000 26.0%
CYPRESS------ $485,000 $385,000 26.0%
MURRIETA--- $451,000 $358,137 25.9%
West LA------ $687,500 $550,000 25.0%
CLOVIS--------- $320,000 $256,250 24.9%
LOMITA--------- $525,000 $422,500 24.3%
STUDIO CITY $808,000 $655,500 23.3%
ENCINITAS----- $711,000 $577,500 23.1%
SAN DIEGO----- $488,500 $399,000 22.4%
SAN RAMON $750,000 $613,500 22.2%
LOS ALTOS $1,410,K $1,165,K 21.1%
BERKELE----- $650,000 $537,500 20.9%
BELMONT----- $857,500 $712,000 20.4%
LA MESA----- $475,000 $395,000 20.3%
NEWBURY PARK $671,000 $559,000 20.0%
CULVER CITY $490,000 $411,000 19.2%
SANTA MONICA $715,000 $600,000 19.2%
GOLETA------ $707,500 $595,500 18.8%
TARZANA----- $502,500 $425,000 18.2%
San Luis Ob CO $510,000 $432,250 18.0%
Lafayette--- $955,000 $820,000 16.5%
MILL VALLEY $910,000 $785,000 15.9%
SHERMAN OAKS $680,000 $588,000 15.6%
WOODSIDE $985,000 $852,000 15.6%
Orinda-------- $1,042,K $924,000 12.8%
LA CRESCENTA $537,000 $479,000 12.1%
SAN LUIS OBISPO $530,000 $474,000 11.8%
LA JOLLA---- $752,000 $680,000 10.6%
STEVENSON RANCH $682,000 $622,932 9.5%
LA MIRADA-- $430,000 $395,000 8.9%
LOS GATOS---- $875,000 $811,250 7.9%
LAKESIDE----- $398,000 $419,500 -5.1%
L.A. Westside $790,000 $874,750 -9.7%
LA CANADA FLIN $650,000 $725,000 -10.3%
SAUSALITO $700,000 $815,000 -14.1%

-- posted by Jas_Jain