Real estate

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Top 938. Feb 17, 2006 4:10 PM

» Jas_Jain - FWC: Rise In Short Sales Indicates Troubled Housing Market

I wonder if many people are even aware of what a short sale of a house means. It is going to get uglier and uglier.

Jas

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Rise In Short Sales Indicates Troubled Housing Market
More Cases Being Seen Where Sellers Must Bring Money To Table

POSTED: 12:49 pm EST February 15, 2006

CLEVELAND -- A lot of people rely on the value of their house to bail them out of some circumstances, such as losing a job, going through a divorce or suddenly taking ill.

However, a tough economy and a flat real estate market may leave you short when the deal is done, reported 5 On Your Side's Adam Shapiro.

At Susan Gray's law office in Rocky River, a lot of the cases these days involve a short sale. And across town at Howard Hanna-Smythe Cramer in Shaker Heights, Realtor Myra White is worried because short sales are on the rise.

People are selling their homes for less than they owe, and in some cases, for less than they are worth.

"We are seeing a lot of people having to bring money to the table. They are doing it, they make the sale happen, but they walk away with nothing," said White.

Even mortgage banker Thom Rankin is closing short sales, which just a few years ago were considered rare.

"It concerns me that we are now seeing this happening, and I have been doing this for 30 years, and I have never seen short sales come as readily as these did," said Rankin.

Short sales indicate trouble with the economy and housing market, because people sell short to unload property they can no longer afford, or to avoid foreclosure.

Nobody keeps statistics on how many short sales close each month, but lender and Realtors say they are increasing at an alarming rate.

"I think it is very difficult for sellers with expensive houses. They haven't seen this since the early 80s," said Gray.

It's also happening to people with less expensive homes, the people who hire Gray to avoid bankruptcy.

"People are basically borrowing up to the absolute equity in their house," said Gray.

This leaves them no room to sell. They can't even cover the closing costs, and wind up selling short.

But Gray said she's had several short sales fail, even deals that were just a few thousand dollars short.

"The bank wouldn't accept it, and a year and a half later, the house was still sitting there vacant," said Gray.

And Rankin worries that this is a trend that will continue down the road.

Forty-three percent of homebuyers last year put no money down on their houses. That means they have little to no equity if they have to sell short, or worse.

"It is easy for someone to walk away from a transaction when they have nothing invested in it at all," said Rankin.

-- posted by Jas_Jain

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-mi...

Top 939. Feb 20, 2006 5:27 AM

» Jas_Jain - Fraud & Bubble -- FW: Two for the Money

--
Fraud and bubble
Go together as
Love and trouble...

One certain proof of a financial bubble is widespread fraud that develops with the bubble and only fully discovered after the bubble has burst and lot of participants have been scammed.

We don't treat our fraudsters too harshly because, after all, we are not barbarians. In a "nation of laws," financial fraudsters are 2-3 steps ahead of the laws and by the time the laws catch up with the Crooks most of the damage is done. And fraudsters are ready for the next bubble or scheme with new angles, mostly a rehash of old angles. American huckster is always looking for an angle.

When Bankrupters and Fraudsters get to influence the laws that govern them, the “nation of laws” turns into?

Jas

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February 19, 2006
Two for the Money
Hundreds wrote checks after hearing get-rich-from-real-estate pitches by Mile High Capital. Now there's little to show for the millions they invested.

By David Streitfeld and Nicholas Riccardi, Times Staff Writers

At the height of the real estate boom last year, a group of investment promoters crisscrossed California, touting a plan to build rental duplexes in distant states.

Mile High Capital Group's scheme generated so much interest that its executives said they were interested only in buyers who were willing to take a risk. And after investors handed over a $16,500 down payment for each duplex, Mile High founder Rick Dryer warned: "It's no longer your money. It's our money."

That turned out to be all too true for hundreds of Mile High buyers, who fear they will never see the money again.

The Denver company filed for bankruptcy protection last month and is all but defunct. It collected deposits on nearly 1,200 duplexes but finished building only 55 of them. Regulators say the company's files are in such disarray that it will be a long time before they know exactly what happened and who was responsible.

Allegations of real estate fraud have tripled in the last two years, the FBI says. As a hot housing market becomes tepid, economists and other observers warn that many of those who bought speculative properties could wind up losing a bundle — some because of the market downturn, others because of frauds coming undone.

Mile High Capital stands as a vivid example of the latter. A court-appointed receiver says the company's books provide indications of "fraudulent and deceptive conduct by one or more of the company's current or former officers, directors, shareholders or employees."

The 57-year-old Dryer, celebrated at Mile High's sales seminars as a millionaire home builder and author of a book on real estate investing, turned out to have a record of securities fraud stretching back a quarter of a century.

His book didn't exist either, despite the fact that it was pictured on promotional materials at the seminars.

Dryer's lawyer said in an interview that his client was being made a scapegoat for the problems at Mile High and that the person to blame for any fraud was Andy McFaul, the former chief operating officer who, the attorney said, had control of the firm's day-to-day operations.

McFaul joined Mile High in late 2004, a few weeks after he pleaded guilty to felony theft for stealing more than $10,000 of tools from the workers building his house.

McFaul's lawyer said the 41-year-old executive left Mile High last summer after realizing that "he and many others had been the victims of an enormous scam orchestrated by Mr. Dryer and Mr. Dryer alone."

Michael Noone, a lawyer for the receiver who took control of Mile High in October after complaints were made to Colorado regulators, said the company had almost no money at that time, despite claims of $175 million in revenue during the prior six months.

Noone compared the structure of Mile High to a Ponzi scheme, saying investors' money was used to pay operating costs rather than build $330,000 duplexes. "The first time anyone decides not to send money in, it all comes crashing down," he said.

To thousands of investors who attended the Mile High seminars, the pitch was irresistible.

Massoud Balbas, a Laguna Niguel computer consultant, went to three seminars last winter. He bought a duplex each time — one in Colorado, one in Texas, one in "North Carolina or South Carolina or one of those places."

Those first few months of 2005 were a heady time, a moment when it seemed more important to buy real estate immediately, before it went up again, than to think too much about where the property was or how much it cost. Homeowners were refinancing and taking cash out at unprecedented levels. Some of the money was invested in projects like Mile High's.

The Mile High executives "knew where the money was," Balbas said. "People were vulnerable, and fell into their trap."

The 60-year-old's own fall was particularly hard: "I was a brand-new investor. I thought I was doing the right thing, but it looks like I lost everything. My wife is mad at me."

Several factors combined to make Balbas and the other investors so eager to surrender their money.

First and most elemental was the siren song of real estate. The metaphors at the seminars may have been mixed — "Our duplexes are appreciating like an avalanche and cash-flowing like a freight train," a promotional film asserted — but the message was clear.

"If you don't have several million dollars' worth of real estate working for you by the time you retire, you're going to condemn yourself to a life of struggle," Dryer said at a San Francisco seminar.

Prospective buyers were advised that they should refinance their duplexes every year, taking money out to buy another. "Appreciation projections" were handed out showing that, under that method, an investor would have as much as $2.5 million in equity after a decade.

"You're in the harvesting business," Dryer said. "You're harvesting money."

To add intellectual ballast at the San Francisco seminar, Forbes magazine Publisher Rich Karlgaard touted his book about the coming population shift from the coasts to the heartland. In San Diego, author Mark Victor Hansen, co-creator of the inspirational "Chicken Soup for the Soul" series, shared the stage. (Hansen and Karlgaard say they were hired speakers and weren't endorsing Mile High's products.)

The presentations emphasized that Mile High did extensive research to determine exactly which towns on the outskirts of major metropolitan areas were poised for huge growth. That gave investors the security of statistics while reinforcing the notion of a large payoff.

A further enticement was that Mile High promised to handle everything. The firm would build the duplexes, arrange for a construction loan or a mortgage and, through a subsidiary, find tenants and manage the property. It was one-stop shopping for time-pressed investors.

But the pitch wasn't all about getting rich. Dryer spoke of the importance of tithing, of giving back to the community. You not only would become rich by investing with him, he promised, but also would help make the world a better place.

At least 825 people found the seminars compelling enough to make deposits, according to court records. More than two-thirds of those investors were in California.

An example of what happened to Mile High's projects sits outside Fort Lupton, Colo., a town 29 miles northeast of Denver. A "preliminary concept plan" sent to prospective buyers a year ago showed a 38-acre neighborhood with streets, a park and 67 duplexes. Only six were listed as still available.

The development never made it past a paper existence. Cliff Carter, a local farmer, said that Mile High was to purchase the field from him through an intermediary last March. But just before the deal closed, Mile High sued the intermediary, and the dispute killed the transaction.

Carter still tends the alfalfa fields that Dryer had touted to investors as Carter Centennial Ranch. On the parcel sits one vacant white clapboard house, a crumbling garage, a swing set and, in the distance, a grain silo. Prairie dogs scamper about.

"I don't think Mile High was really about developing real estate," said Denver attorney Jonathan Oster, who is suing the company on behalf of investors. "They were guys who were promoters of a concept, but they weren't the type of guys who could carry out the concept."

They were certainly brash, in the manner of dot-com executives circa 1999. After a skeptical article about the company appeared in the Los Angeles Times last year, McFaul, the chief operating officer, offered to bet the paper $10,000 that its duplexes would be worth more in three years than another real estate investment.

McFaul was described in Mile High news releases as a successful entrepreneur who began with a small pallet company in Wisconsin. "McFaul started acquiring other pallet companies, eventually owning dozens of facilities and employing 6,000 people" at a company called PalEx, the releases say. McFaul made identical claims on his short-lived weblog.

Though McFaul did sell a small Wisconsin pallet company to PalEx and continue to run it for a year, he had no larger managerial role, former PalEx executives say. "We employed 3,000 people, and Andy was in charge of 50 of them," said Vance Maultsby, PalEx's former chief executive.

In 2002, McFaul started building a $4-million home in the Colorado ski resort of Crested Butte. For more than a year, his contractor was plagued by disappearing equipment.

A police investigation ended when McFaul revealed a hidden room containing the missing tools, with the serial numbers removed. He said he took them as a joke.

On Nov. 29, 2004, a few weeks before starting at Mile High Capital, McFaul pleaded guilty to two counts of theft and one count of possessing illegal weapons — two sawed-off shotguns that police found during their search.

The public record on Dryer also begins in Wisconsin. Dryer committed securities fraud numerous times while living there in the late 1970s, a Wisconsin Circuit Court file indicates. For instance, Dryer formed a limited partnership to buy a plot of monastery land. But he misrepresented the deal to his partners, court papers say, and converted "substantial sums of the money invested" to his own use.

Dryer received four years' probation in 1981. He moved to Colorado, where he pleaded no contest in 1987 to multiple counts of securities fraud. His lawyer, Patrick Ridley, declined to comment on his client's past.

Last summer, amid a flurry of seminars, Mile High issued a news release saying McFaul and a few other investors had bought the company from Dryer for $100 million.

"I knew that the company had outgrown my skill set," Dryer "confesses" in the release. A "longtime colleague" is quoted "on condition of anonymity": "Rick has made all the money he cares to. He wants to spend more time with his family."

No money ever changed hands, said McFaul attorney Philip Feigin, who calls the release "just one lie piled on top of another." The reality, Feigin said, is that McFaul left Mile High in September.

Dryer also tried to move on. He announced the formation of a nonprofit that would help nonviolent criminals get their records sealed.

Meanwhile, investors were suing, and regulators and the Denver Business Journal were investigating. But Mile High continued selling properties as fast as it could.

Hector Vargas of Fullerton was impressed by a July seminar, especially the presence of "Chicken Soup" creator Hansen. In November, when Vargas had several certificates of deposit mature, Vargas sent Mile High a $19,000 deposit.

"This wasn't a get-rich-quick thing," Vargas said. "I was doing it for the long term."

At the end of October, Colorado regulators took action against Mile High, alleging in a complaint that it was issuing securities without having registered with the state. The company agreed to be placed in receivership.

Last month, the state had Mile High file for bankruptcy protection. Receivers listed $13 million in debt and a possible $5 million in assets.

The receiver said it was possible that other developers could take over four of the company's 40 projects and provide duplexes to about 500 investors.

Noone, the lawyer for the receiver, said negotiations underway could provide for the completion of an additional 16 developments. That could allow some of the investors, he said, to be made whole.

Colorado Securities Commissioner Fred Joseph offered less hope. He said his experience of what investors get back in investment schemes "is not very much — pennies on the dollar."

Joseph wasn't surprised that the scam revolved around real estate. It depends, he said, "what the thing of the day is. It can be wireless cables , it can be oil and gas." Investors can get fleeced when they latch onto the latest boom, he warned.

Some of the fleeced refuse to be disillusioned.

Silicon Valley jeweler Geoffrey Stern figures he's lost forever his down payment on two duplexes, as well as money spent traveling to Denver in October. Mile High had promised to reimburse him for the trip.

"I was so naive," he said. "I made an emotional decision, not a logical one."

His interest in real estate is unabated, however. He recently bought a share of a house in Los Altos Hills, Calif. The partnership is going to renovate the house and sell it.

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Answer: A Nation of Scams.

-- posted by Jas_Jain

Top 940. Feb 20, 2006 12:11 PM

» Jas_Jain - Detailed Data on California Bubble and Some Explanation

February 20,2006

Detailed Data on California Bubble and Some Explanation

For a year or so I have had the theory that the California Housing Bubble (CHB) began in San Diego, Orange County and L.A., in that order, where prices rose rapidly in 2001 and 2002, and then spread to other parts of the state. In most of the outlying areas of L.A., there was no bubble in the spring of 2003 but it was in full swing at the beginning of 2004. All the available data validates this theory. Indications are that with some exceptions prices peaked during 2005Q3, most in August and some in September. Marin County (who cares?) notwithstanding, San Diego has led the deflation of the bubble, thus far, showing the smallest YoY gains and double-digit losses from the peak. From the middle of 2003Q4 to the middle of 2005Q3, the median price of Single Family Homes (SFH) in California increased 47.9% over 21 months.

The attached table shows the prices and gains in all California counties and cities and most of the towns from Dec’03 to Sep’05, period of 21 months with the greatest bubble intensity, or “the bubble period.” The data includes SFH and condos and has been arranged in descending order of gains over the period indicated.

The Jan’06 data just released showed that the Marin County in the San Francisco Bay Area is doing the worst, but the signs were there much earlier from the loss in Sausalito and meager gains for Mill Valley during the boom period. Also, San Diego and Orange County are cooling fast with losses over the last six months.

The Data Put Kibosh On LOCATION and LIMITED SUPPLY OF LAND Theory and Support the Bubble Theory

Among the towns with the largest gains during the bubble period the two largest towns (or cities, if you prefer) are – Bakersfield and San Bernardino, with close to 90% gains over the 21-month period. Just to remind people, the prices in Bakersfield were anything but low during Dec’03 and the housing boom there began in 2002. I have traveled thru (passing them on my way) both these towns several times over the past year and I can assure you that there is no dearth of land to build in these two cities and I don’t think that permits to build are hard to get (I am told that Bakersfield issued permits for 53,000 units over a 12-month period to mid-2005!).

If many Americans know of these two cities then it is likely to be due to the fact that in 2001 (or 2002) San Bernardino was number two in violent crimes in all of the US and Bakersfield used to a butt of Johnny Carson’s jokes. I am not aware of anything very desirable, or attractive, about these two cities. Oh, BTW, San Bernardino is the largest populated area close to San Andreas fault (just a few miles to the south) in Southern California. One of these days, or years, the Big One is going to hit. And San Bernadine is not a safe place to be, from nature or from human beings! There is room for 250,000 homes, and more, in Bakersfield to satisfy any demand that may arise out of any fancy people might have to live there.

I don’t know much about Mira Loma, but there is nothing there to justify 138% gain in 21 months other than the bubble mentality. Bubble is when even junk goes up in price. Bubbles are like tides that lift all boats. We shall all find out who were swimming naked when the tide goes out!

Jas

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Table

County/Cities Sep'05 Price Dec'03 Price Dec'03 to Sep'05 Gain

MIRA LOMA $530,000 $222,500 138.2%
TWENTYNINE PALM $148,250 $065,000 128.1%
CRESTLINE-- $268,000 $125,000 114.4%
ADELANTO-- $273,750 $135,250 102.4%
APPLE VALLEY $289,500 $150,000 93.0%
SAN BERNARDINO $282,500 $148,000 90.9%
WASCO------- $179,000 $094,000 90.4%
BARSTOW----- $155,000 $081,500 90.2%
Kern County $255,000 $135,750 87.8%
BAKERSFIELD $272,000 $145,000 87.6%
HESPERIA--- $290,000 $156,250 85.6%
South LA---- $381,000 $209,500 81.9%
DESERT HOT SP $260,000 $143,000 81.8%
WEST SACRAMENTO $481,500 $265,000 81.7%
LOMA LINDA $462,250 $254,500 81.6%
SANGER------ $285,000 $157,500 81.0%
OAK PARK-- $705,000 $391,000 80.3%
BELLFLOWER $490,000 $272,000 80.1%
LOS BANOS $410,000 $230,500 77.9%
VICTORVILLE $308,000 $175,000 76.0%
INDIO-------- $367,500 $209,750 75.2%
SAN YSIDRO $489,500 $280,000 74.8%
BLOOMINGTON $340,000 $195,000 74.4%
ROSAMOND $270,000 $155,000 74.2%
MERCED------ $344,750 $198,500 73.7%
COMPTON----- $335,000 $193,000 73.6%
RIDGECREST $175,250 $101,000 73.5%
GLENDALE-- $654,500 $380,000 72.2%
INGLEWOOD $418,000 $243,750 71.5%
REEDLEY----- $292,250 $170,500 71.4%
FONTANA----- $429,000 $250,409 71.3%
TEHACHAPI $281,000 $164,500 70.8%
ATWATER----- $340,000 $200,000 70.0%
SEASIDE----- $760,000 $449,500 69.1%
YUCCA VALLEY $215,500 $127,500 69.0%
LYNWOOD----- $405,500 $240,000 69.0%
UPLAND------ $591,250 $350,000 68.9%
TAFT---------- $135,000 $080,000 68.8%
RIALTO------ $356,000 $211,000 68.7%
PALMDALE-- $344,250 $205,000 67.9%
SAN JACINTO $330,000 $197,000 67.5%
SELMA------- $242,500 $145,000 67.2%
LANCASTER $301,000 $180,000 67.2%
Long Beach-- $412,500 $247,500 66.7%
San Bern CO. $350,000 $210,000 66.7%
ONTARIO----- $399,000 $239,500 66.6%
Merced County $350,000 $211,250 65.7%
SALINAS----- $610,000 $369,500 65.1%
CARMEL VALLEY $1,200,K $727,500 64.9%
SAN JUAN CAPI $587,000 $356,000 64.9%
DANA POINT $875,000 $531,500 64.6%
KINGSBURG $269,000 $163,500 64.5%
BALDWIN PARK $385,000 $235,000 63.8%
NORTH HOLLYWOOD $540,000 $330,000 63.6%
COLTON------ $272,636 $167,000 63.3%
Yolo County $480,000 $294,500 63.0%
BRENTWOOD $651,250 $400,000 62.8%
PORT HUENEME $447,000 $275,000 62.5%
ALHAMBRA-- $519,500 $320,000 62.3%
CORONADO $1,350,K $832,500 62.2%
HEMET------- $305,500 $189,000 61.6%
PERRIS------ $355,000 $220,000 61.4%
HAWTHORNE $517,500 $322,000 60.7%
HUNTINGTON PARK $371,500 $231,500 60.5%
FILLMORE--- $544,000 $339,000 60.5%
HERMOSA BEACH $1,200,K $750,000 60.0%
CATHEDRAL CITY $360,000 $225,000 60.0%
DOWNEY------ $550,000 $344,000 59.9%
PANORAMA CITY $430,000 $269,000 59.9%
SANTA ANA $548,000 $344,000 59.3%
FAIRFIELD-- $438,000 $275,000 59.3%
NEVADA CITY $477,500 $300,000 59.2%
PLAYA DEL REY $560,000 $352,000 59.1%
WOODLAND $461,500 $290,500 58.9%
RIVERSIDE-- $405,000 $255,000 58.8%
RUNNING SPRINGS $239,500 $151,000 58.6%
CHINO------- $475,000 $300,000 58.3%
PACOIMA----- $445,000 $282,000 57.8%
SCOTTS VALLEY $839,000 $532,000 57.7%
San Joaquin CO $425,000 $270,000 57.4%
BYRON------- $665,000 $422,500 57.4%
FALLBROOK $629,000 $400,000 57.3%
MONTCLAIR $385,000 $245,000 57.1%
EL MONTE--- $447,000 $285,000 56.8%
SUN CITY---- $345,000 $220,000 56.8%
Stanislaus CO $372,864 $238,000 56.7%
CHATSWORTH $616,500 $394,500 56.3%
POMONA------ $378,500 $242,750 55.9%
ROSEMEAD--- $490,000 $315,000 55.6%
HACIENDA HT $575,000 $370,000 55.4%
OXNARD------ $590,000 $380,000 55.3%
SHINGLE SPRINGS $486,500 $313,500 55.2%
MOORPARK--- $599,000 $386,000 55.2%
DUARTE------ $450,000 $290,000 55.2%
WILDOMAR-- $479,000 $309,500 54.8%
BANNING------ $260,000 $168,000 54.8%
MORENO VALLEY $352,000 $227,773 54.5%
GARDENA------ $479,000 $310,000 54.5%
NORTH HILLS $515,000 $333,500 54.4%
MISSION HILLS $530,000 $343,500 54.3%
DIXON------- $503,500 $326,500 54.2%
HARBOR CITY $535,000 $347,000 54.2%
HIGHLAND-- $352,500 $229,000 53.9%
ARCADIA------ $710,000 $461,500 53.8%
RESEDA------- $500,000 $325,000 53.8%
WESTMINSTER $600,000 $390,000 53.8%
NORWALK------ $445,000 $289,750 53.6%
SE San Fer Val $575,000 $374,500 53.5%
SAN LORENZO $586,500 $382,000 53.5%
NORTHRIDGE $723,500 $471,500 53.4%
NEWPORT COAST $1,399,K $912,500 53.3%
SANTA PAULA $455,000 $297,000 53.2%
SYLMAR------- $490,000 $320,000 53.1%
COVINA------- $465,000 $303,750 53.1%
BENICIA------ $635,250 $415,000 53.1%
BEAUMONT $352,500 $230,500 52.9%
NORCO------- $576,000 $376,978 52.8%
FRESNO------ $265,000 $173,500 52.7%
LAKE ARROWHEAD $389,000 $255,000 52.5%
PICO RIVERA $440,000 $288,500 52.5%
LONG BEACH $457,000 $300,000 52.3%
S. LAKE TAHOE $475,000 $312,250 52.1%
El Dorado CO $488,000 $322,000 51.6%
NE San Fer Val $500,000 $330,000 51.5%
WINNETKA- $530,000 $350,000 51.4%
VENTURA----- $605,000 $400,000 51.3%
SAN FERNANDO $468,000 $310,000 51.0%
CASTRO VALLEY $670,750 $444,500 50.9%
TUJUNGA----- $520,000 $345,000 50.7%
ANAHEIM----- $565,000 $375,000 50.7%
Oakley------- $497,050 $330,000 50.6%
REDLANDS-- $399,000 $265,000 50.6%
BIG BEAR CITY $282,250 $187,500 50.5%
TUSTIN----- $615,000 $409,000 50.4%
Palos Ver Est $1,600,K $1,065,K 50.2%
San Fer Val $533,000 $355,000 50.1%
Fresno County $270,000 $180,000 50.0%
LOS ANGELES $495,000 $330,000 50.0%
North East LA $420,000 $280,000 50.0%
CARSON------ $477,500 $318,500 49.9%
WEST COVINA $494,000 $330,000 49.7%
PARAMOUNT $327,000 $218,500 49.7%
VENICE------ $1,025,K $685,000 49.6%
WEST HILLS $622,000 $416,000 49.5%
Placer County $515,000 $345,000 49.3%
STANTON----- $407,500 $273,500 49.0%
RIO VISTA---- $423,500 $284,500 48.9%
SUISUN CITY $446,000 $300,000 48.7%
SEAL BEACH $825,000 $555,000 48.6%
LAKE ELSINORE $396,250 $266,750 48.5%
PALO ALTO $1,112,K $749,500 48.4%
DANVILLE---- $1,000,K $673,750 48.4%
WATSONVILLE $654,750 $441,250 48.4%
WALNUT CREEK $675,000 $455,000 48.4%
Riverside CO $399,000 $269,000 48.3%
ALTADENA-- $630,000 $425,000 48.2%
HAYWARD----- $555,750 $375,000 48.2%
RANCHO PALOS V $1,100,K $742,500 48.1%
WHITTIER-- $472,727 $320,000 47.7%
VAN NUYS-- $517,000 $350,000 47.7%
SANTA BARBARA $1,062,K $719,000 47.7%
WALNUT------ $655,500 $444,000 47.6%
Solano County $450,000 $305,000 47.5%
WOODLAND HILLS $750,000 $508,500 47.5%
ANTIOCH----- $513,000 $348,000 47.4%
GARDEN GROVE $545,000 $370,000 47.3%
CAMARILLO $655,000 $445,000 47.2%
SAN DIMAS--- $557,500 $379,000 47.1%
BUENA PARK $555,000 $377,500 47.0%
SUN VALLEY $485,000 $330,000 47.0%
CASTAIC------ $525,250 $357,500 46.9%
CORONA------- $535,000 $364,250 46.9%
MONTEREY PARK $479,000 $326,500 46.7%
SARATOGA-- $1,314,K $896,000 46.7%
LOS ALAMITOS $872,500 $595,000 46.6%
AZUSA-------- $425,000 $290,000 46.6%
DAVIS-------- $537,500 $367,000 46.5%
MONROVIA---- $549,000 $375,000 46.4%
NEWARK------- $600,000 $410,000 46.3%
VALLEJO------ $435,000 $297,500 46.2%
Los Angeles CO $497,000 $340,000 46.2%
SUNLAND------ $522,500 $357,500 46.2%
NATIONAL CITY $420,000 $287,500 46.1%
MOUNTAIN VIEW $701,000 $480,000 46.0%
Ventura County $598,750 $410,000 46.0%
SAN GABRIEL $595,000 $407,500 46.0%
NAPA--------- $598,500 $410,000 46.0%
SAN PABLO $485,000 $332,500 45.9%
BURBANK------ $595,000 $408,000 45.8%
Mar Vista---- $804,877 $552,000 45.8%
YUCAIPA------ $365,000 $250,500 45.7%
TRUCKEE------ $570,000 $392,500 45.2%
RANCHO MIRAGE $579,750 $399,500 45.1%
Richmond--- $460,000 $317,500 44.9%
SANTA CLARITA $542,500 $374,500 44.9%
W San Fer Val $550,000 $380,000 44.7%
AGOURA HILLS $718,000 $496,250 44.7%
Contra Costa CO $557,000 $385,000 44.7%
GLENDORA $506,250 $350,000 44.6%
EL DORADO HILLS $641,000 $443,750 44.5%
South Bay--- $650,000 $450,000 44.4%
HUNTINGTON Bch $700,000 $485,000 44.3%
Monterey County $598,750 $415,000 44.3%
CARLSBAD--- $764,000 $530,000 44.2%
SPRING VALLEY $452,500 $314,000 44.1%
Santa Barb CO $511,250 $355,000 44.0%
LAKEWOOD $540,000 $375,000 44.0%
SIMI VALLEY $580,000 $403,500 43.7%
MANHATTAN BEACH $1,578,K $1,100,K 43.5%
LA QUINTA--- $501,000 $350,000 43.1%
Sonoma County $579,000 $404,955 43.0%
CANOGA PARK $515,000 $360,500 42.9%
SAN CARLOS $925,000 $648,000 42.7%
LA HABRA-- $497,000 $348,500 42.6%
CONCORD------ $522,500 $366,500 42.6%
BIG BEAR LAKE $335,000 $235,000 42.6%
ORANGE------- $625,000 $438,500 42.5%
Napa County $643,000 $451,500 42.4%
VALLEY VILLAGE $623,000 $437,500 42.4%
SAN PEDRO $540,000 $379,500 42.3%
TORRANCE-- $625,000 $439,250 42.3%
FREMONT------ $660,000 $464,000 42.2%
Downtown LA CNT $725,000 $510,000 42.2%
CLAREMONT $574,000 $404,091 42.0%
Pinole-------- $565,000 $398,000 42.0%
PALM SPRINGS $340,000 $240,000 41.7%
SAN CLEMENTE $872,500 $616,500 41.5%
SOUTH EL MONTE $417,000 $295,000 41.4%
ROWLAND HEIGHTS $547,000 $387,000 41.3%
BREA--------- $635,000 $449,500 41.3%
MORGAN HILL $747,500 $530,000 41.0%
Nevada County $479,500 $340,000 41.0%
MONTEBELLO $422,500 $300,000 40.8%
VALENCIA--- $528,000 $375,000 40.8%
Pittsburg----- $450,000 $320,000 40.6%
COSTA MESA $730,000 $520,000 40.4%
GRANADA HILLS $550,000 $392,000 40.3%
Hercules------- $477,500 $340,500 40.2%
LOMPOC------- $445,000 $317,500 40.2%
REDONDO BEACH $812,500 $580,000 40.1%
CANYON COUNTRY $462,000 $330,000 40.0%
Orange County $610,000 $436,000 39.9%
PASADENA---- $594,500 $425,000 39.9%
Santa Cruz CO $699,000 $500,000 39.8%
SANTA MARIA $455,000 $326,500 39.4%
SAN RAFAEL $800,000 $574,500 39.3%
GILROY------- $689,000 $495,000 39.2%
GRASS VALLEY $415,000 $298,250 39.1%
SANTA CLARA $659,500 $475,000 38.8%
SAN BRUNO $660,000 $476,000 38.7%
Beach Cities $970,000 $700,000 38.6%
OJAI----------- $587,500 $424,000 38.6%
VISTA-------- $468,500 $339,000 38.2%
WILMINGTON $380,000 $275,000 38.2%
SAN JOSE---- $642,500 $465,000 38.2%
Alameda County $587,000 $425,000 38.1%
EL CAJON---- $462,500 $335,000 38.1%
CHINO HILLS $586,000 $425,000 37.9%
MISSION VIEJO $647,250 $469,500 37.9%
WINCHESTER $450,000 $326,546 37.8%
SANTEE------- $440,500 $320,000 37.7%
CERRITOS--- $640,000 $465,000 37.6%
WEST HOLLYWOOD $625,000 $454,500 37.5%
NEWHALL------ $378,000 $275,455 37.2%
LAGUNA NIGUEL $715,000 $522,000 37.0%
MENIFEE------ $410,000 $299,500 36.9%
UNION CITY $600,000 $438,500 36.8%
CUPERTINO $875,000 $639,500 36.8%
DELANO------- $165,500 $121,000 36.8%
SUNNYVALE $711,000 $520,000 36.7%
APTOS-------- $777,000 $569,000 36.6%
SAN MATEO $800,000 $586,750 36.3%
TEMECULA--- $472,500 $347,000 36.2%
Sacramento CO $371,000 $272,500 36.1%
Santa Clara CO $660,000 $485,000 36.1%
PLEASANTON $756,000 $556,000 36.0%
TRABUCO CANYON $867,500 $639,000 35.8%
SOLEDAD------ $451,750 $333,000 35.7%
LAKE FOREST $569,500 $420,000 35.6%
PACIFICA----- $725,000 $535,000 35.5%
RANCHO SANTA MA $537,500 $397,000 35.4%
FULLERTON $562,500 $415,750 35.3%
DIAMOND BAR $532,000 $395,000 34.7%
Westchester $740,000 $550,000 34.5%
YORBA LINDA $789,000 $586,500 34.5%
PACIFIC GROVE $804,500 $599,000 34.3%
LA PALMA---- $657,500 $490,000 34.2%
TEMPLE CITY $560,000 $417,500 34.1%
FOUNTAIN VALLEY $707,000 $527,500 34.0%
LAWNDALE--- $420,000 $313,500 34.0%
EL SEGUNDO $716,250 $535,000 33.9%
POWAY-------- $604,000 $452,500 33.5%
SAN MARCOS $517,000 $387,500 33.4%
NOVATO------- $780,500 $585,000 33.4%
SAN LEANDRO $540,000 $405,000 33.3%
ESCONDIDO $470,000 $352,500 33.3%
BOULDER CREEK $480,000 $360,000 33.3%
PALM DESERT $392,500 $295,000 33.1%
SANTA CRUZ $730,000 $550,000 32.7%
REDWOOD CITY $775,000 $585,000 32.5%
VACAVILLE-- $437,000 $330,000 32.4%
OAKLAND------ $482,000 $365,000 32.1%
MILPITAS--- $598,250 $455,000 31.5%
San Mateo CO $755,000 $575,000 31.3%
ALISO VIEJO $569,000 $433,500 31.3%
San Fran CO $735,000 $560,000 31.3%
SAN FRANCISCO $735,000 $560,000 31.3%
THOUSAND OAKS $655,000 $499,500 31.1%
CAMPBELL--- $675,000 $515,000 31.1%
PLACENTIA--- $574,000 $438,500 30.9%
IMPERIAL BEACH $480,000 $367,500 30.6%
S. SAN FRAN $711,000 $545,000 30.5%
LIVERMORE $589,500 $452,000 30.4%
CALABASAS $1,218,K $936,000 30.1%
DUBLIN------- $648,068 $499,500 29.7%
LA VERNE---- $518,750 $400,000 29.7%
DALY CITY--- $680,000 $525,000 29.5%
BURLINGAME $1,419,K $1,100,K 29.0%
ALAMEDA------ $686,000 $532,000 28.9%
RAMONA------- $515,000 $400,000 28.8%
Marin County $815,000 $635,000 28.3%
Martinez------ $510,000 $398,000 28.1%
CHULA VISTA $555,500 $434,000 28.0%
LEMON GROVE $440,000 $344,000 27.9%
Pleasant----- $580,500 $455,000 27.6%
RANCHO CUCAM $447,500 $351,250 27.4%
OCEANSIDE $482,000 $379,250 27.1%
FOOTHILL RANCH $637,000 $501,500 27.0%
PLACERVILLE $330,000 $260,000 26.9%
San Diego CO $505,000 $398,500 26.7%
EMERYVILLE $475,000 $375,000 26.7%
MENLO PARK $890,000 $703,750 26.5%
IRVINE------- $633,500 $501,000 26.4%
LADERA RANCH $625,000 $496,000 26.0%
CYPRESS------ $485,000 $385,000 26.0%
MURRIETA--- $451,000 $358,137 25.9%
West LA------ $687,500 $550,000 25.0%
CLOVIS--------- $320,000 $256,250 24.9%
LOMITA--------- $525,000 $422,500 24.3%
STUDIO CITY $808,000 $655,500 23.3%
ENCINITAS----- $711,000 $577,500 23.1%
SAN DIEGO----- $488,500 $399,000 22.4%
SAN RAMON $750,000 $613,500 22.2%
LOS ALTOS $1,410,K $1,165,K 21.1%
BERKELE----- $650,000 $537,500 20.9%
BELMONT----- $857,500 $712,000 20.4%
LA MESA----- $475,000 $395,000 20.3%
NEWBURY PARK $671,000 $559,000 20.0%
CULVER CITY $490,000 $411,000 19.2%
SANTA MONICA $715,000 $600,000 19.2%
GOLETA------ $707,500 $595,500 18.8%
TARZANA----- $502,500 $425,000 18.2%
San Luis Ob CO $510,000 $432,250 18.0%
Lafayette--- $955,000 $820,000 16.5%
MILL VALLEY $910,000 $785,000 15.9%
SHERMAN OAKS $680,000 $588,000 15.6%
WOODSIDE $985,000 $852,000 15.6%
Orinda-------- $1,042,K $924,000 12.8%
LA CRESCENTA $537,000 $479,000 12.1%
SAN LUIS OBISPO $530,000 $474,000 11.8%
LA JOLLA---- $752,000 $680,000 10.6%
STEVENSON RANCH $682,000 $622,932 9.5%
LA MIRADA-- $430,000 $395,000 8.9%
LOS GATOS---- $875,000 $811,250 7.9%
LAKESIDE----- $398,000 $419,500 -5.1%
L.A. Westside $790,000 $874,750 -9.7%
LA CANADA FLIN $650,000 $725,000 -10.3%
SAUSALITO $700,000 $815,000 -14.1%

-- posted by Jas_Jain

http://www.dailynews.com/business/ci_352...

Top 941. Feb 20, 2006 3:37 PM

» Jas_Jain - FWC: Could history repeat itself in [San Fernando] Valley's '0

I used to live in SF Valley. During the 1990s slump, the prices fell 29% in nominal dollars and 40%+ in real terms. It took ELEVEN YEARS for the prices to recover.

Jas

-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-

Article Launched: 02/19/2006 12:00 AM PST

Could history repeat itself in [San Fernando] Valley's '06 housing market?
Home sales dip to continue
Gregory J. Wilcox, Staff writer

This year's San Fernando Valley residential real estate market might have started with a pop, unlike last year's, which began with sort of a bang.
The 851 single-family home sales in January 2005 ranks as the fourth-highest number since 1,057 transactions in 1989. Last month's sales total, an anemic 582 transactions, ranks 13th.

To find any deja vu in this, we've got to go way back to 1990, which had the seventh-highest sales total.

But that January's count fell 27.2 percent from the prior year.

This year started with a hefty 31.6 percent decline to the lowest level in nine years.

There are some striking similarities, and differences, between then and now.

Both years started the same way the prior one ended. In May 1989, sales began falling under the prior year levels; that malaise lasted 22 months.

Looking back, it's the point when that real estate bubble began to burst.

This January's sales decline is the fourth in a row and that pattern is expected to continue.

At their respective points in time, both markets were past their prime.

The last boom market peaked in 1988 with 15,263 sales and the next year they fell by 16.4 percent. This crest came in 2003 with 13,878 sales and the annual declines since then have been much more tepid.

Both years started with high energy prices, unrest in the Middle East and a Bush in the White House.

More powerful and quite different forces were in play then versus now, though.

Jack Kyser, chief economist at the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp., committed them to memory.

"Speculators were really in the market more heavily invested than now, new-home builders raced into the market ... and were left with huge inventory overhangs and the most important thing is your (the Valley's) economy was going through a major restructuring," he said.

A seven-year price decline in the annual median price - halfway between the

most and least expensive homes sold - also started in 1990. Now we are at a record $605,000, a whopping 163 percent higher than where 1990 started.

Kyser also notes that the economy is much more diverse now than in 1990, which was the beginning of a prolonged slump that saw Los Angeles and Orange counties losing 700,000 jobs. Sales and prices didn't fall in response to each other so much as they reacted to jobs leaving the area.

Now the economy is on sound footing and is much more diverse.

Jim Link, executive vice president of the Southland Regional Association of Realtors, does not see a price decline accompanying this fall-off in sales, just a moderation in the rate of appreciation.

"A year from now, I think it will be a single-digit increase but it will be higher than it is now," he said of the median.

He was just as optimistic in January 1990, anticipating that full-year sales would match 1987 or 1989.

Single-family sales ended up plunging 31.6 percent that year, a suddenly familiar number.

Analysts and industry executives don't expect that kind of a train wreck this time around, though. Of course, no one saw the last one until it flattened the market.

But with the year off to a slow start, we might need a full 12 months to find out if 13 is indeed an unlucky number.

Gregory J. Wilcox, (818) 713-3743

-- posted by Jas_Jain

Top 942. Feb 22, 2006 7:11 PM

» BillBowden - Detailed Data on California Bubble and Some Explanation

In response to Detailed Data on California Bubble and Some Explanation posted by Jas_Jain:

I didn't see 29 Palms California on the list. I have a little lot out there in the desert worth maybe 3500 in 1987. Any idea what it is worth today?

-Bill

-- posted by BillBowden

Top 943. Feb 22, 2006 7:28 PM

» TonyFromGlendale - Twenty-nine Palms lot value

Bill Bowden,

Don't ask Jas_Jain about your lot value in Twenty-nine Palms...he has never seen a piece of real estate that he thought was worth anything. Ask a local realtor. They can tell you about current values. I will bet it is worth a lot more than what you paid like almost all California Real Estate. I thank God everyday for the properties I own, and I am grateful to own them. And grateful I did not get any real estate advice from Jas_Jain! Thank God and Amen.

-- posted by TonyFromGlendale

Top 944. Feb 22, 2006 7:35 PM

» BillBowden - Detailed Data on California Bubble and Some Explanation

In response to Detailed Data on California Bubble and Some Explanation posted by BillBowden:

I see 29 Palms has increased over 120%. I have a little vacant lot with houses on both sides out there in the desert valued at 3500 in 1987. Any idea what is is worth today? It's walking distance to the center of town.

-- posted by BillBowden

Top 945. Feb 23, 2006 10:08 AM

» Jas_Jain - Re: [Florida-RE] Distressed Beachside Condo Sale -- “Her loss is

Re: [Florida-RE] Distressed Beachside Condo Sale -- “Her loss is your gain!”

George B Asked: Condo's in Florida being dumped?

Yes, but dumping has barely begun. Land close to beaches in Florida is in limited supply? LOL. If going horizontal is limited, go vertical.

“Her loss is your gain!”

You will be hearing a lot of this pitch. There sure are lots of Damsels In Distress in our soon-to-be God-forbidden State (Our official state motto is: Golden State, but there are few with gold and most loaded with dirt covered with building materials).

Don’t get suckered in any housing “deal,” folks, especially in San Francisco Bay Area. Why? There IS a high correlation with Fraud Money from the Scam Market and the home prices in Silly.con Valley. When the Fraud Money dries up in the coming years the housing prices will collapse to the early 1990s prices at the minimum. People there learned nothing from 2001-2 when the prices in Silly.con Valley, relative to median prices in CA, dropped significantly.

Soon, Silly.con Valley and CA economies will become victim of two bubbles.

Jas

-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-

-----Original Message-----
Sent: Thursday, February 23, 2006 8:16 AM
Subject: [Florida-RE] Distressed Beachside Condo Sale

A client of mine has a pre-construction condo that needs to close in
a month or less. She told me that she is willing to sell to an
investor at a steep discount to what many of these condos have
already been assigned for in order to be able to assign hers before
it closes. Several of these units have been assigned to investors
for around $289,900. She is willing to sell her unit to an investor
for $235,000 as long as they can close in less than 30 days. It is
a 3,2 about 1,550 sq. feet. and is 1 block from the ocean and 1
block from Port Canaveral. It is accross the street from the new
Ron Jon's resort. This offer is available to the first investor
that is savy enough to scoop it up. The real current value of these
when compared to other condos in the area is around $300,000 when
compared with other condos in the area, but it was oversold to
investors in the begining and this is making it difficult to get out
quick. Her loss is your gain! Call me today with any interest,
because it won't be available for long at this price.

-- posted by Jas_Jain

Top 946. Feb 23, 2006 10:17 AM

» Kirk - PLEASE USE NEW SITE

.
Please use our new forum for Real Estate discussion here http://investment.suite101.com/discussio...

NEW Real Estate Discussion Forum

This site will be closed to new posts very soon. Please copy over any posts you want on the new site from this site so they are not lost, should there be a problem.

Thanks

-- posted by Kirk