REITs - Real Estate Investment Trusts - Info & Discussion
- allancoleman
- Kirk
- bob90245
- Normxxx
- bob90245
- Normxxx
- bob90245
- Normxxx
- Normxxx
- Normxxx
This archived discussion is "read only".
For the corresponding "live" discussions, post in the active topic forum here.
« Previous 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 Next »
» allancoleman - Re: Q: Historical Annual Returns for REIT Index?
In response to message posted by bob90245:i'm surprised you could get back that far with the vanguard REIT index fund ( VGISX ) . i show a inception date of 5/13/1996 for that fund . i'm having the same difficulty researching REITs very far back . new ? ?
-- posted by allancoleman
» Kirk - Re: Re: Q: Historical Annual Returns for REIT Index?
In response to message posted by allancoleman:-- posted by Kirk
» bob90245 - Re: Re: Q: Historical Annual Returns for REIT Index?
In response to message posted by allancoleman:Yes, Vanguard's REIT index is new. But the 1994-1996 data is from Morningstar. Kirk posted a chart for the REIT index going all the way back to 1970:
http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...
I sure wish I can get annual returns for a REIT index every year going that far back.
BTW, I just found this site for all the other historical annual returns (LG,LV,SG,SV, etc.)
-- posted by bob90245
» Normxxx - Re: Re: Re: Q: Historical Annual Returns for REIT Index?
In response to message posted by bob90245:Check out:
http://www.nareit.com/home.cfm
Just remember that it is an industry group.
-- posted by Normxxx
» Normxxx - Orderly Retreat From REITs
Orderly Retreat From REITs
As you can see, REITs are 'bouncing' today. So this is not a case where "everyone is headed out the door." Rather, this marks the exit of the momentum (MoMo) traders and those who want to beat the crowds (like yours truly) to the exits. The real panic is likely (but not certain) to occur when the FED first raises rates. I might add that the (overall) rise in RE values has stalled so far this year.
Since I expect bonds to have at least one more good rally in them, REITs may follow them back up. But remember, this is not a time for complacency about fixed income securities; I would either trade them or lighten up.
The content of this message is not to be construed as constituting market or investment advice. It is intended for educational purposes only.
-- posted by Normxxx
» bob90245 - Re: Re: Re: Re: Q: Historical Annual Returns for REIT Index?
In response to message posted by Normxxx:I got an email back from nareit.com. The annual returns are for members only. But they said the monthly returns are available to the public.
http://www.nareit.com/nareitindexes/mont...
Now all I need to do is convert the monthly returns to annual returns. [insert slightly perturbed smiley]
-- posted by bob90245
» Normxxx - Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Q: Historical Annual Returns for REIT Index?
In response to message posted by bob90245:Are they charging, now? It used to be all free. I haven't used it in a while. Sorry about the problems; so many sites seem not to be what they once were. Not like the 'Golden Years,' when all that counted were 'eyeballs.'
-- posted by Normxxx
» Normxxx - REIT Stocks, Market Harbingers?
From A Usually Reliable Source. . .
Monday, April 12th, 2004 8:55pm EST
REIT Stocks, Market Harbingers?
Bottom Line: Sharp declines in real estate stocks were warning signs before two of the most severe stock market sell-offs in the past 20 years. If you even casually follow broad market sectors, you have undoubtedly seen something about housing stocks or REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) lately. Over the past few days, the Morgan Stanley REIT Index has declined over 15%, any many housing-related stocks have seen similar haircuts, which is being attributed in some manner to the rise in bond yields.
A study by the Center for Economic and Policy Research suggested that if a national housing bubble would collapse, meaning the average home price would lose 15% - 25% of its current value, it would eliminate somewhere around $1.5 trillion in homeowner’s wealth, which could lead to a nearly $80 billion reduction in consumption, which of course would trickle down to the earnings power of many U.S. companies. Instead of getting into a fundamental discussion about the topic, I would rather stick to seeing how this type of activity has played out in the past.
The National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts (NAREIT) publishes some information about its indexes of real estate-related stocks going back to the early 1970’s. When we take a look at its index of all REITs compared to the performance of traditional equities, something notable stands out when we put the current move into perspective. Since the end of March, the NAREIT index of all REITs has declined over 12%, which is an extremely large drop – in fact, if the index closes out the month at this level or below, it will be the largest one-month decline in 17 years.
What is perhaps a reason for concern is that since 1971, any time the REIT index declined 10% or more from a new all-time high, the S&P 500 was lower one month later every time, for an average loss of 12.7%. However, there were only three instances, so it’s not like we’re going to get statistically significant results.
The first instance preceded the very difficult market of 1973-1974. The second instance preceded the crash of 1987. The third instance preceded the mini-crash of 1998. The table below details each of the instances of when the REIT index peaked, when it dropped by at least 10%, and the subsequent performance in the S&P 500 the given number of months later.
| REIT Index Peak | Declined 10% By | % Decline | S&P 500 Performance | |||
| 1 Month Later | 3 Months Later | 6 Months Later | 12 Months Later | |||
| Nov-72 | Apr-73 | -11.5% | -1.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | -15.6% |
| Feb-87 | Sep-87 | -10.3% | -21.8% | -23.2% | -19.6% | -15.5% |
| Sep-97 | Jul-98 | -14.9% | -14.6% | -2.0% | 14.2% | 18.6% |
|
| ||||||
|
|
| Average | -12.7% | -8.0% | -1.4% | -4.2% |
The average return in the S&P one month later was an abysmally poor -12.7%, with all of them being negative. One year later, the average return was still a negative 4.2%, though the occurrence in 1998 was very positive. The figures above use monthly closes in the REIT index, so they do not take into account any intra-month fluctuations.
If real estate stocks recover later this month, it’s quite possible that we will not see a 10% decline in the REIT index from its all-time high and this study will have been for naught (unless it continues to decline in the coming months). Still, I believe it’s important to keep an historical perspective, and the precedents for a large drop in REITs after hitting new highs are not promising when we look at their impact on other equities.
-- posted by Normxxx
» Normxxx - Homebuilder/GSE Top Is In
Homebuilder and GSE Stocks - Technical Evidence Suggests Top Is In
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/gol...
By Martin Goldberg | 15 April 2004
The homebuilders have had a bull market of historic proportion. From early 2000 at the time of the bursting of the technology and telecom bubble, homebuilders as measured by the Dow Jones Home Construction Index, have increased in stock price by over 300%. Before that time the index was in a bear market. If you are a bull in this sector, you may be asking yourself, “How could the stock market have mis-priced these stocks before the homebuilder bull market?” Those such as myself who are bearish on the sector would have to ask, “When will the mania end?” Based on technical evidence, those with long positions and sitting on long-term capital gains may want to consider hitting the “sell” button. In tonight’s article I will present evidence that indicates that the bull market for both homebuilders and the related Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSE’s) may end soon.
[Consider] a 5-year weekly chart of the DJ Home Construction plotted on a percentage gain basis. After a bull run that began in mid-2000, the upper [trend] channel line was broken more than 3 years later, in the 4th quarter of 2003. You would be normal to wonder as I do, what excellent new fundamentals gripped the homebuilders that warrant such recent emotional buying not seen in 3 years and a 250% price increase. A logical person would question whether the people most knowledgeable in the industry, insiders, would have bought. Golly, maybe insider buying was propelling the stocks higher in the 4th quarter and after the New Year.
It appears as though there may be more insiders selling than buying. There were 3.16 million shares sold, and only 0.034 million bought. (I suppose the company insiders don’t watch all of the bullish information that is presented on financial cable TV channels.) This is a ratio of 92 to 1, more than two times the insider-selling ratio of the general stock market, which is at about 40 to 1.
If we examine the most recent 6-month timeframe of representative members of the homebuilding sector, we find that this is no longer a picture of health. Of the six representative stock charts, three of them show a clear “double-top” formation – Beazer, Hovnanian, and Ryland Homes. (Hovnanian is tracing a longer-term descending triangle, described below.) NVR Homes is tracing out a clear descending triangle, practically always a bearish technical pattern if broken. It has also shown technical weakness just after the New Year. The two strongest of the illustrated homebuilder stocks – Centex and Toll Brothers are nearing important support/resistance lines, at 50 and 42.5, respectively. Breaking into these support areas in a decisive way will spell more trouble for the sector. Note how all of the homebuilder stocks have recently violated their respective 50-day moving averages for the third time. This is not a good sign.
The Government Sponsored Enterprise (GSE) stocks are showing weakness. Freddie Mac (FRE) is showing more weakness than Fannie May (FNM). Fannie is showing distribution and a potential head and shoulders pattern.
On the basis of long-term momentum indicators, Freddie Mac is showing technical weakness. There is a clear long-term loss of volume momentum as indicated by the 12-month money flow, and the clear long-term distribution. Similarly the 14-month RSI shows a consistent trend of lower highs and lower lows, after having topped back in 1999. While long-term momentum indicators seem to show that the secular trend for FRE has turned from up to down, shorter term chart analyses are needed to provide practical trading entrance and exit points.
Note the sloppy downward sloping channel line. The break of the upper channel line may be an exhaustion move. When (if) the price breaks back into the channel, the stock will be in a weak position, and the exhaustion move will be confirmed.
A decisive break into the channel would occur at about 54. Note the weakness shown by the relative price, 14-day RSI divergence, and the 12-day Rate of Change. Note the June 2003 Cockroach. Not a bullish sign.
Insider information: Freddie Mac is 1% owned by insiders. Insider purchases and sales are not listed. Yahoo! Finance indicates that Fannie May insiders sold 207,000 shares over the last 6 months versus insider purchases at (“N/A”).
Last Word - What Could Go Wrong
My analysis clearly shows technical weakness in the homebuilders and GSE’s. So is there a ton of money to be made on the short side? As anything in technical analysis, no opportunity has a 100% probability. The game is similar to counting cards at the blackjack table. You only can put the odds in your favor. You cannot be right all of the time (that is why there are stop losses). What can prove this analysis wrong? The historic bull market in homebuilders and GSE’s was supported by the Fed’s lose money policy and corresponding bull market in bonds. Similarly, the recent thrashing of the bond market on the threat of higher interest rates from the Fed is presently driving the weakness in the homebuilder stocks. So what can go wrong for homebuilder bears?
1. Interest rates ticking up could spur one last round of panic house buying because of fear that interest rates will not continue at historic low levels. This would be enough for one last “good quarter” for the homebuilders. This may be good enough for a final climax run for the homebuilder stocks.
2. A bond market rally (whatever the cause) and the resulting low interest rates could allow the home buying party to continue.
Just trying to be fair and balanced.
Summary and Conclusion
The homebuilders and government sponsored enterprise (GSE) stocks are showing technical weakness. It appears that the top is in.
-- posted by Normxxx
« Previous 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 Next »
Please follow the guidelines set forth in the Suite101 Posting Etiquette when adding to the discussion.