REITs - Real Estate Investment Trusts - Info & Discussion
- allancoleman
- allancoleman
- Kirk
- bob90245
- Normxxx
- bob90245
- Normxxx
- bob90245
- Normxxx
- Normxxx
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» allancoleman - Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: oops, there goes my REIT
In response to message posted by lcha: must be everybody headed for the door at the same time as Normxxx mentioned . better think fast radiodude before the horse is out of the barn . after the n.a.v. drops enough , you'll be a long term holder weither you like it or not 
. just like i am in my magellan fund . at least i can sell my gateway fund at a profit now . my magellan fund investment (
? ) may take many more years .
-- posted by allancoleman
» allancoleman - Re: Q: Historical Annual Returns for REIT Index?
In response to message posted by bob90245:i'm surprised you could get back that far with the vanguard REIT index fund ( VGISX ) . i show a inception date of 5/13/1996 for that fund . i'm having the same difficulty researching REITs very far back . new ? ?
-- posted by allancoleman
» Kirk - Re: Re: Q: Historical Annual Returns for REIT Index?
In response to message posted by allancoleman:-- posted by Kirk
» bob90245 - Re: Re: Q: Historical Annual Returns for REIT Index?
In response to message posted by allancoleman:Yes, Vanguard's REIT index is new. But the 1994-1996 data is from Morningstar. Kirk posted a chart for the REIT index going all the way back to 1970:
http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...
I sure wish I can get annual returns for a REIT index every year going that far back.
BTW, I just found this site for all the other historical annual returns (LG,LV,SG,SV, etc.)
-- posted by bob90245
» Normxxx - Re: Re: Re: Q: Historical Annual Returns for REIT Index?
In response to message posted by bob90245:Check out:
http://www.nareit.com/home.cfm
Just remember that it is an industry group.
-- posted by Normxxx
» Normxxx - Orderly Retreat From REITs
Orderly Retreat From REITs
As you can see, REITs are 'bouncing' today. So this is not a case where "everyone is headed out the door." Rather, this marks the exit of the momentum (MoMo) traders and those who want to beat the crowds (like yours truly) to the exits. The real panic is likely (but not certain) to occur when the FED first raises rates. I might add that the (overall) rise in RE values has stalled so far this year.
Since I expect bonds to have at least one more good rally in them, REITs may follow them back up. But remember, this is not a time for complacency about fixed income securities; I would either trade them or lighten up.
The content of this message is not to be construed as constituting market or investment advice. It is intended for educational purposes only.
-- posted by Normxxx
» bob90245 - Re: Re: Re: Re: Q: Historical Annual Returns for REIT Index?
In response to message posted by Normxxx:I got an email back from nareit.com. The annual returns are for members only. But they said the monthly returns are available to the public.
http://www.nareit.com/nareitindexes/mont...
Now all I need to do is convert the monthly returns to annual returns. [insert slightly perturbed smiley]
-- posted by bob90245
» Normxxx - Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Q: Historical Annual Returns for REIT Index?
In response to message posted by bob90245:Are they charging, now? It used to be all free. I haven't used it in a while. Sorry about the problems; so many sites seem not to be what they once were. Not like the 'Golden Years,' when all that counted were 'eyeballs.'
-- posted by Normxxx
» Normxxx - REIT Stocks, Market Harbingers?
From A Usually Reliable Source. . .
Monday, April 12th, 2004 8:55pm EST
REIT Stocks, Market Harbingers?
Bottom Line: Sharp declines in real estate stocks were warning signs before two of the most severe stock market sell-offs in the past 20 years. If you even casually follow broad market sectors, you have undoubtedly seen something about housing stocks or REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) lately. Over the past few days, the Morgan Stanley REIT Index has declined over 15%, any many housing-related stocks have seen similar haircuts, which is being attributed in some manner to the rise in bond yields.
A study by the Center for Economic and Policy Research suggested that if a national housing bubble would collapse, meaning the average home price would lose 15% - 25% of its current value, it would eliminate somewhere around $1.5 trillion in homeowner’s wealth, which could lead to a nearly $80 billion reduction in consumption, which of course would trickle down to the earnings power of many U.S. companies. Instead of getting into a fundamental discussion about the topic, I would rather stick to seeing how this type of activity has played out in the past.
The National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts (NAREIT) publishes some information about its indexes of real estate-related stocks going back to the early 1970’s. When we take a look at its index of all REITs compared to the performance of traditional equities, something notable stands out when we put the current move into perspective. Since the end of March, the NAREIT index of all REITs has declined over 12%, which is an extremely large drop – in fact, if the index closes out the month at this level or below, it will be the largest one-month decline in 17 years.
What is perhaps a reason for concern is that since 1971, any time the REIT index declined 10% or more from a new all-time high, the S&P 500 was lower one month later every time, for an average loss of 12.7%. However, there were only three instances, so it’s not like we’re going to get statistically significant results.
The first instance preceded the very difficult market of 1973-1974. The second instance preceded the crash of 1987. The third instance preceded the mini-crash of 1998. The table below details each of the instances of when the REIT index peaked, when it dropped by at least 10%, and the subsequent performance in the S&P 500 the given number of months later.
| REIT Index Peak | Declined 10% By | % Decline | S&P 500 Performance | |||
| 1 Month Later | 3 Months Later | 6 Months Later | 12 Months Later | |||
| Nov-72 | Apr-73 | -11.5% | -1.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | -15.6% |
| Feb-87 | Sep-87 | -10.3% | -21.8% | -23.2% | -19.6% | -15.5% |
| Sep-97 | Jul-98 | -14.9% | -14.6% | -2.0% | 14.2% | 18.6% |
|
| ||||||
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| Average | -12.7% | -8.0% | -1.4% | -4.2% |
The average return in the S&P one month later was an abysmally poor -12.7%, with all of them being negative. One year later, the average return was still a negative 4.2%, though the occurrence in 1998 was very positive. The figures above use monthly closes in the REIT index, so they do not take into account any intra-month fluctuations.
If real estate stocks recover later this month, it’s quite possible that we will not see a 10% decline in the REIT index from its all-time high and this study will have been for naught (unless it continues to decline in the coming months). Still, I believe it’s important to keep an historical perspective, and the precedents for a large drop in REITs after hitting new highs are not promising when we look at their impact on other equities.
-- posted by Normxxx
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