WEB:The Oracle of Omaha- Warren Buffett

» axolotl - Re: Another Dollar Bear

-- posted by axolotl

» Normxxx - Spitzer vs Buffet: round I

The report said the request seeks information about its sales of a type of insurance that can help companies smooth out earnings.

In late December, Berkshire (BRK.A: news, chart, profile) said the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission had asked for information about its sales of the same type of products.

Regulators are trying to find out whether the products help firms improperly smooth earnings and bolster capital. Critics contend that the complex transactions can sometimes involve limited transfer of risk, making them look more like loans than insurance.

Berkshire said it and its unit General Re, also mentioned in the subpoena, will cooperate with the inquiry, the report added.

Berkshire is the latest insurer to be asked for information on nontraditional insurance, which is also known as finite insurance or reinsurance.

American International Group (AIG: news, chart, profile) the world's largest insurer, had to pay $126 million in November to settle investigations by the SEC and Department of Justice into its sales of finite insurance and reinsurance.

Berkshire shares rose $492 to $86,192 on Thursday.

The contents of this letter/report does not necessarily reflect the opinions or viewpoint of normxxx. They are provided for informational/educational purposes only.

The content of this message is not to be construed as constituting market or investment advice. It is intended for educational purposes only. Individuals should consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.

-- posted by Normxxx

» Kirk - Buffett says dollar to continue to fall

Warren Buffett, the billionaire investor who has bet against the U.S. dollar since 2002, said the country's trade gap will further weaken the currency.

"Unless we have a major change in trade policies, I don't see how the dollar avoids going down," Buffett, 74, said in an interview with CNBC Wednesday. "I don't have any idea if it's going to be this month, next month or next year."

However, on Wednesday the dollar strengthened against the euro, which dropped below the $1.30 mark in afternoon trading, as dealers considered data that showed an expanding economy

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                  Kirk  S&P500  NASDAQ  BRKA
2YR: 12/31/2002   +69%   +41%    +63%   +23%
4YR: 12/31/2000   +35%    -3%    -12%   +26%
6YR: 12/31/1998  +160%     7%     -1%   +27%

• Click for a free issue of my newsletter
  
• Suitable for the aggressive growth part of your diversified investment portfolio.

Even if you don’t market time or buy individual stocks, my newsletter offers quite a bit of useful information and tables (Discussion of interest rates, The Fed Model, etc.) which many say are worth the price of the subscription on its own.

Support Suite101 and Buy TurboTax Deluxe 2004 Win/Mac
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-- posted by Kirk

» Kirk - Billionaire Buffett has a bear-y bad feeling

From http://business.bostonherald.com/busines...

Billionaire Buffett has a bear-y bad feeling
By Brett Arends
Friday, January 21, 2005

Is Warren Buffett still the market seer of legend, or is he just a grumpy old man?

The 74-year old ``Sage of Omaha'' took to the airwaves yesterday to warn that pretty much everything was overpriced and bound to go down.

Biggest dislike: the dollar, thanks to the huge U.S. trade deficit.

``We are force-feeding dollars on the rest of the world at the rate of close to a couple billion dollars a day,'' he said in an interview on cable channel CNBC. ``That's going to weigh on the dollar . . . unless we have a major change in trade policies, I don't see how the dollar avoids going down.''

But, he added, ``I don't know if it's going to be this month, next month or next year.''

Buffett is sitting on a cash pile that swelled to $43 billion last autumn because he cannot find any bargains. That's a record sum for his financial conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway, whose entire market value is $135 billion.

[Kirk's Editor Comment: Interesting. I was not aware that Buffet had 32% of his BRKA market cap in cash! That large cash position mixed with the low beta stock positions of his Berkshire Hathaway holding company would sure explain his market under performance the past two years (see table below) ]

He doesn't like the stock market: ``I'm having a hard time finding things to buy,'' he said. He doesn't like commodities, such as steel, copper or coffee: ``We haven't been buying commodities.'' And he doesn't like bonds: ``I think you're going to see more inflation,'' he said.

Rising prices are the Black Death for bonds, whose coupon payments are fixed.

Nor is Buffett tempted by the recent slump in airline stocks. ``I have an 800 number I call when I get the urge to buy an airline stock, and I call them up at midnight and say, `My name is Warren and I'm an air-holic.' And they talk me down.''

Is Buffett being too gloomy?

Perhaps. But investors should be wary of disregarding his warnings lightly. In 50 years on the stock market, Buffett has built a $43 billion personal fortune from a standing start through his investment acuity, making himself the world's second-richest man. He began betting against the dollar three years ago, just as the greenback was beginning its long slide on currency markets.

As of 1/1/05, the Total Return for Kirk's Newsletter since 12/31/98 is 160%. Here are some more periods and comparative total return calculations:

 
                  Kirk  S&P500  NASDAQ  BRKA
2YR: 12/31/2002   +69%   +41%    +63%   +23%
4YR: 12/31/2000   +35%    -3%    -12%   +26%
6YR: 12/31/1998  +160%     7%     -1%   +27%
(BKRa is Legendary Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway )

• Click for a free issue of my newsletter
  
• Suitable for the aggressive growth part of your diversified investment portfolio.

-- posted by Kirk

» Normxxx - Re: Billionaire Buffett has a bear-y bad feeling

He may be overgloomy, but, man, does he ever reflect my sentiments!

However, (barring HFEs-- Horrific Financial Events), I am predicting little or no down movement for the dollar for (most of) this year. Gold and the dollar should take a breather here.

-- posted by Normxxx

» Kirk - Buffett increasing his position in Gillette

Considering that Walmart, Costco and the major grocery chains are pushing their own brands to help their profit margins.

If Buffett is counting on Chinese and Indians wanting to buy major American brands, then he has become a growth investor, not a value investor. I am highly suspicious of him announcing he "will buy more" ahead of time. Perhaps he will buy 100 shares then start to sell when others are buying?

Key Statistics for Gillette Co (G)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=G

Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 31.58
Forward P/E (fye 31-Dec-05)¹: 26.89
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)¹: 2.56
Price/Sales (ttm): 5.13
Price/Book (mrq): 19.87
Dividend Yield: 1.26%

Buffett says he's increasing his position in Gillette

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=...

Warren Buffett raves about Gillette-P&G deal, buys stock

By Matt Krantz, USA TODAY

Gillette and Procter & Gamble investors are getting their chance to try the Warren Buffett (news - web sites) way.

Most mergers leave investors puzzled over whether to buy more, hold or sell their shares. But in this $57 billion buyout of Gillette by P&G, which ranks as the 13th-largest deal of all time, investors have a role model to follow: legendary investor Buffett.

In an rare glimpse of a post-merger move by a key insider, Buffett beamed about the deal, saying it "is going to create the greatest consumer products company in the world." More important to shareholders of Gillette and P&G, Buffett says he's increasing his position in Gillette so his Berkshire Hathaway holding company will own 7% more of P&G after the deal is done.

"Given Buffett is staying in, that's a good sign," says Steve Goddard, portfolio manager of the New Market fund and owner of Gillette shares. He said he hadn't decided yet, as of early Friday, what he planned to do with his Gillette shares, but added he has faith in P&G's track record.

A closer look at the deal gives investors of both stocks a full understanding of what they should do. It appears owners of:

• Gillette come out ahead. Shares of the leading maker of shaving products soared $5.92 to $51.60 Friday after P&G unveiled its offer. P&G agreed to swap 0.975 of its shares for every Gillette share.

For Gillette investors long waiting for a payback, it doesn't get much better than this. The deal represents a $53.94-a-share value on Gillette shares, which is an 18% premium from the price before the deal was announced. It also gives investors in the company, which has been struggling to digest its purchase of battery maker Duracell, an out if they want it. Gillette, which is expected to post revenue of $10.2 million in 2004, according to Reuters Estimates, plugs into a company that's five times larger.

Above all, it offers Gillette investors a chance to own a piece of a company with sustainable long-term growth potential, analyst Doug Christopher says. Without faster growth, the company's 27 price-earnings ratio (before the deal) based on expected 2004 earnings would have been tough to sustain, Goddard says.

• Procter & Gamble gains options. Certainly, P&G's biggest prize was grabbing Gillette's razor business, which is one of the most profitable in consumer goods. "It's a terrific business and something you rarely have the chance to buy," says Jim Huguet, president of investment manager Great Companies, which owns P&G shares.

But there are risks, since P&G is paying such a premium for Gillette, Christopher says. P&G, which itself had a P-E of 21 times this year's expected earnings going into the deal, is paying more than 28 times Gillette's 2005 expected earnings.

Goddard says he'll review the deal further. But until then, he's siding with Buffett. "I was surprised to hear Buffett support the deal," he says. "That's encouraging to me."

-- posted by Kirk

» Kirk - Billionaire Buffett Honored for Writing

Thu Feb 3, 6:16 PM ET
Add to My Yahoo! Business - AP

OMAHA, Neb. - Billionaire investor Warren Buffett (news - web sites), long lauded for his stock-picking acumen, is being honored for his writing skills.

The National Commission on Writing for America's Families, Schools, and Colleges is honoring Buffett's folksy and easy-to-understand annual report on Berkshire Hathaway Inc. as a major contribution to the art and craft of writing.

"No annual report has had a greater impact on American business," said Bob Kerrey, the commission's chairman and a former Democratic senator from Nebraska.

"With clarity, insight, and wit, each year Warren Buffett advises countless leaders of business and industry, scholars of commerce, public officials, and investors from across the spectrum," said Kerrey, who is president of New School University in New York.

Buffett says he writes his annual report as though he were explaining Berkshire to a sister who has been away for a long time. Often the reports are sprinkled with humor, such as when Buffett blamed himself for his company's poor performance in 1999.

"My performance reminds me of a quarterback whose report card showed four Fs and a D but who nonetheless had an understanding coach," Buffett wrote. "'Son,' he drawled, 'I think you're spending too much time on that one subject.'"

The commission issued its second report to Congress in September titled, "Writing: A Ticket to Work...Or a Ticket Out, a Survey of Business Leaders."

Buffett was to receive his award Friday in Omaha. Honored last year for their contributions to the craft of writing were Sens. Robert Byrd, D-W.V. and Thad Cochran, R-Miss.

-- posted by Kirk

» Kirk - Buffett doubles Comcast stake

NEW YORK, Feb 15 (Reuters) - Warren Buffett, one of the best known investors in the United States, doubled his stake in Comcast Corp. (CMCSA.O: Quote, Profile, Research) , sending shares of the nation's largest cable company up more than 3 percent on Tuesday.

Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc.(BRKa.N: Quote, Profile, Research) (BRKb.N: Quote, Profile, Research) doubled its stake in Comcast Corp. to 10 million shares in the fourth quarter, less than 1 percent of outstanding shares. His stake was valued at $328.4 million as of Dec. 31.

Meanwhile, Soros Fund Management LLC said it purchased 2.6 million shares of Time Warner Inc. (TWX.N: Quote, Profile, Research) in the fourth quarter, valued at $50.54 million.

The disclosures also sent shares of Time Warner Inc., which owns the No. 2 cable operator Time Warner Cable, up 1 percent in early trading as investors viewed it as an optimistic sign that media and cable stocks were returning to top stock pickers' good graces.

"It's a validation of the notion that cable is well positioned competitively and an indicator that there's growing recognition of the free-cash generation capacity of the cable platform," said Craig Moffett, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein.

Time Warner (TWX.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Comcast have teamed up to bid for the assets of bankrupt cable operator Adelphia Communications Corp. (ADELQ.PK: Quote, Profile, Research) for an estimated $17 billion.

The two top U.S. cable operators are aggressively launching telephone services in addition to bolstering digital video services, putting them at the vanguard of a battle between telephone companies and cable operators for the next generation of media and telecommunications.

The competition has also helped ignite a flurry of telecommunications mergers, including Verizon Communications Inc.'s (VZ.N: Quote, Profile, Research) $6.75 billion bid for MCI Inc. (MCIP.O: Quote, Profile, Research)

One investor in Comcast and Time Warner said the cable operators may have the upper hand as the systems and infrastructure investments are already in place.

Phone companies have yet to debut competing video products even as they work to work through merger-related issues.

Comcast shares were up $1, or 3.19 percent, at $32.31 in mid-morning trading on the Nasdaq.

-- posted by Kirk

» axolotl - Re: Buffett doubles Comcast stake

-- posted by axolotl

» arommel88 - What is Buffet Looking at here?

Is this another real estate grab? I see it has no debt as a typical Buffet stock but what is he looking at?

-- posted by arommel88