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- Kirk
- R_Lewis
- lcha
- Kirk
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- smile_1
- lcha
- Kirk
- mdorsey
- Mark_J
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» Kirk - Re: SChwab - BottomFishing Time?
In response to message posted by JenL_2:Schwab is on your list. I like the company for the long term, but I've been unable to say what price I'd pay for it.
Schwab looked great when the individual investor would pay $30 each side of a trade to swap out of conservative mutual funds to buy stocks like JDSU that were only going higher and higher. (I know of personal friends that fit that category). People didn't mind paying $30 when they made money.... Now these same people have ridden their 401Ks and taxable accounts down a long way and they are not as inclined to pay $30 to buy $1,000 worth of stock, especially if the stock doesn't go up.... Stocks may have stopped going down fast but it is still expensive to take small positions and then watch them sit there.
People are going to have to relearn to buy a security that might do 10% a year on average and the great returns come from holding for several years while this better than money market return compounds. They'll have to grow wealth the old fashioned way, waiting.
Waiting is not profitable for Schwab and other brokers... they are moving to a fee based service but most will opt out of that after awhile when they find out the best advice is to do what we say here and buy a diversified mix, DCA into those funds and not trade too much (SOME is fine to satisfy animal instincts or to see if you really can add value with a small part of your portfolio.).
Anyway, Schwab is a good company, just I really don't see how you can value it until the dust settles and we see how investors behave over the next few years.
-- posted by Kirk
» lcha - Re: Re: BottomFishing Time?
In response to message posted by Kirk:Good article Jen. A couple of those stocks are in my newsletter as buys for similar reasons - great valuation and good outlook for the future.
It's kind of interesting, when a bearish article is posted from Barron's it's just more dribble from a tired old rag that has been bearish most of this century and isn't worth the paper it's printed on.
When a bullish article is posted from Barron's it's a great article.
Is Barron's only worth reading when they are bullish?
-- posted by lcha
» Kirk - Re: Re: Re: SChwab - BottomFishing Time?
In response to message posted by rich8rd:Agree. Better for the individual investor. I like Fidelity and use it myself more than I use Schwab.
Not much good there for investors as Fidelity is privately held. The money managers I consulted for in the past liked Schwab because they did their business with Schwab and really liked the tools Schwab had for them.
-- posted by Kirk
» Kirk - Re: Re: Re: BottomFishing Time?
In response to message posted by lcha:my what a bitter post.
You will notice that the article was an interview with Wien and NOT useless commentary from the editors/writers of Barrons that tell you about a problem well after it has happened.
Tell ya what, where was Barrons back in 1998 and 1999 when the telecom bubble was expanding at a rapid rate? We ALL knew the internet was a bubble and would eventually burst, the real trouble came from companies adding too much capacity for telecom where there was too much debt and too little profit to grow at the rate people expected. A few bears I know of were warning of this but I don't count Barrons on that list. Barrons reports the news... with a bearish bias to appeal to that personality type. I don't like that personality type. Deal with it.
-- posted by Kirk
» smile_1 - S&P p/e of 8 - get a clue from the guru
Will We See A P/E Of 8?What are the chances that the price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 will drop to 7 or 8 as it was during the bear market in 1974? Well, if you take the current level of the S&P 500 and divide it by $41.50 (a current estimate of S&P earnings), you get a price/earnings ratio of 26.3, fairly close to the all-time high p/e ratio in 1999 of 28.1. In order to reach the 1974 level, the S&P would have to drop 70% from its current level, a highly improbable outcome. Bob flatly stated he does not expect the S&P P/E to drop to 7 or 8 in the foreseeable future.
-- posted by smile_1
» lcha - Re: Re: Re: Re: BottomFishing Time?
In response to message posted by Kirk:my what a bitter post
You are right and I apologize. I changed my mind about the post about 3 seconds after I hit the post button.
I have posted articles from Barron's in the past and you have all but dismissed them because of your dissatisfaction with Barron's bearish leanings. Be that as it may it still does not justify my reaction.
-- posted by lcha
» Kirk - Re: Barrons
In response to message posted by lcha:I don't mind bearishness that seems to be early and is not just feeding a frenzy of bad news.
They get credit for "Amazon.bomb" but I seem to remember no such warnings when Henry Blodget said Amazon was a $400 stock back when it was $150 and Amazon went up. I could be wrong, but I don't recall a strong warning from them at the time of that happening.
What I DO remember is that the shorts were well in control of Amazon when the bubble was deflating and then they wrote an article to tell WHY the stock was going down... well, that was too late to do much good.
Just like their attack on Carley Fiorina and HWP recently. Hell, I was telling people here that the stock was good for profit taking as I sold half my shares on the way up to my last sale at $67 or so... but Barrons waits for the stock to fall to $24 before writing a piece on it. Sure HP went lower after, but most stocks have gone lower since then... Also, HWP has outperformed DELL since 1999 which is hardly mentioned... but DELL was over valued even more.
Apology accepted. 
BTW, do you think I have time to say "Yeah, I agree with all that" every time someone posts something? I used Jen's article to say why I thought that some of the stocks on the cheap list were not a sure thing. Best to start out with a compliment when writing.
BTW2, I also have found IBD to be worthless along with most other investment journals. I get my best ideas reading about technology and figuring out stuff myself. By the time a reporter figures out something, it is usually too late except for the momentum cases.
-- posted by Kirk
» Mark_J - Re: Re: Barrons
In response to message posted by Kirk:By the time a reporter figures out something, it is usually too late except for the momentum cases.
Dittos.
I've noticed the recent attention or almost "discovery" that we're in an economic slowdown by the media and politicians. Some are saying that "since Bush became president" we've entered a recession. Or, "sept 11th is causing our problems." (The latter especially from politicians running for re-election in 2002.)
Truth is, Greenspan sabotaged the train tracks back in 1999-2000, as as the train and train cars pass by, they derail.
I think most folks saw the price action in stocks during 2000, and thought that it was just another great time to buy, like in 1997 or 1998.
"Wow, Cisco's only $45!!!"
And they assumed more risk "on the dips." Worked before, right? Difference was that the Fed was against folks this time... TV brought out analyst after analyst, and they were mostly wrong.
-- posted by Mark_J
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