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- smile_1
- Kirk
- lcha
- Karin_
- smile_1
- smile_1
- Rande
- smile_1
- Rande
- Rande
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» Kirk - Lehman 10 Uncommon Values®
I'd love to see this portfolio from 27 June 2000 through today rather than just one year...http://www.lehman.com/equities/10uv/2000...
Agilent and HWP are on the list and are another 30% or more lower than they were on 27June2001 when they closed out their list...
Here is the current portfolio
http://www.lehman.com/equities/10uv/curr...
I notice they have Waste Management at $29.70 on it. Funny, but that was a good sized holding in the company I was consulting for back in March 2000 when it was at $14! I guess Lehman found it a better value AFTER WMI doubled?
To me, it sure looks like a momentum list.... to get sales calls.
-- posted by Kirk
» lcha - You can run an airline successfully
As Rande says, it's all about cash.
Oct. 6, 2001, 7:41PM
Attention to cash keeps Southwest on high plain
By DAVID KOENIG
Associated Press
DALLAS -- In the hours after terrorists seized four jetliners, key officials of Southwest Airlines holed up in the company boardroom and tracked about 260 Southwest jets still in the air.
Federal officials had ordered all planes grounded. When the last Southwest jet landed safely at Dallas Love Field, the 20 or so employees, including Chairman Herb Kelleher and Chief Executive James Parker, broke into cheers.
Then they turned to the realization that air travel wouldn't be the same after Sept. 11, that passengers would be skittish about getting back on a plane.
"We were worried about, what cash do we have? Where is it? Can we get it?" Chief Financial Officer Gary Kelly says. "We had $1 billion in cash on Sept. 11. I was worried it would go to zero."
By the next morning, Southwest had tapped a $475 million line of credit with banks and had called Boeing Co. to postpone taking 11 more 737s, worth about $30 million apiece.
Analysts say this slavish devotion to cash and financial fundamentals helps explain why Southwest avoided layoffs and maintained investor confidence during a crisis while its rivals were battered.
"By far they had the strongest balance sheet in the industry," said Ray Neidl, an analyst with ABN Amro. "They might have been the only carrier that could have survived without government assistance."
In an industry where heavy borrowing to buy expensive aircraft is common, Southwest had a net debt-to-capital ratio of 33 percent, compared with 59 percent at American Airlines' parent company, 66 percent at United's parent and 88 percent at Continental, says Salomon Smith Barney.
In the first few days of trading after the attacks, investors hammered airline stocks. Some lost two-thirds of their value and regained ground only after it became clear that Congress would approve a $15 billion bailout.
While shares at some airlines fell from 20 to 50 percent, Southwest shares fell less than 8 percent.
With the credit it drew upon, plus $144 million in federal aid, Southwest now has $1.5 billion in cash to cushion $120 million in losses since Sept. 11.
Kelly said the burn rate has slowed to less than $3 million a day, and ridership climbed to 53 percent last week, compared with 66 percent a year ago. The break-even point, he said, is between 55 percent and 60 percent.
Southwest had clung to its daily schedule of 2,800 flights, despite 20 percent cuts at the other major carriers.
The other carriers have announced 100,000 layoffs, but Southwest has avoided job cuts and made a $180 million contribution to its employee retirement plan on schedule on Sept. 14.
The airline has made a profit every year since 1973, even during the early 1990s when the industry lost about $6 billion in two years.
In the first half, only Continental and Southwest earned money, and analysts expect Continental to go into the red.
But they still look for Southwest to earn 53 cents per share, or about $400 million, according to a survey by Thomson Financial/First Call.
Southwest is not without its question marks, however.
Some analysts have questioned whether tougher security rules at airports will delay Southwest's quick turnaround times and add to costs.
Southwest operates mostly short-haul flights to smaller secondary airports and eschews the hub-and-spoke system of connecting flights used by other carriers.
Some analysts think Southwest is more vulnerable if travelers decide driving is safer than flying.
"The airlines that are going to hold up the best in our opinion are those with big hubs located in large cities," said Brian Harris, an analyst with Salomon Smith Barney. "It's much easier to recapture traffic in those hubs."
Southwest has put some of its expansion plans on hold. It says it will begin service in Norfolk, Va., as planned this fall but only by taking planes off other routes.
It continues to cut costs, including a reduction in travel agent commissions that it figures will save $40 million. Kelly said Southwest will make any changes necessary to survive in the new, post-Sept. 11 airline world.
"Were not static," he said. "We can innovate."
-- posted by lcha
» smile_1 - Re: You can run an airline successfully
In response to message posted by lcha:SWA is the only airline my family & I will travel. We also own the stock. Plan to hang on to the stock for awhile anyway...
Sounds like if there is to be any consolidation in this industry, Southwest will be one of the survivors... I hope
-- posted by smile_1
» smile_1 - for those itching to refinance....
link to the rate trend experts:http://www.bankrate.com/latc/news/mtga/2...
Each week, Bankrate.com surveys mortgage experts to gauge the state of mortgage rates over the next 30 to 45 days: Will rates rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged?
This week (Oct. 4 - Oct. 10) the experts say:
Don't lock. Continued economic weakness means mortgage rates will stay low.
PANEL: Down: 74% Up: 5% Unchanged: 21%
In this week's RTI, 74 percent of the respondents said rates will fall. About 21 percent said rates will remain relatively unchanged (2 basis points from where they are now), and 5 percent expect rates to rise.
from smile: Bottom line is you have to do what is right for you, if it makes sense for you to refi now... do it, if not wait...
note: 6/28/2001 this index was advising to lock, so suffice to say it is not perfect
good luck
also more history on some of the calls of the index here - archives:
http://www.bankrate.com/brm/archive_rti....
they cover cd's too:
-- posted by smile_1
» smile_1 - Re: for those itching to refinance....
In response to message posted by smile_1:BTTRX is a mutual fund which invests in zero coupon treasury securities. The fund matures in the year 2025. Not exactly a proxy for the mortgage market, but it is quite sensitive to interest rate moves:
5-3-3 stos for BTTRX is in over bought territory, but as Dan G. pointed out to me on the TA thread for SPY these short term indicators can get way overdone:
Smile, they sure are overbought, aren't they! But if this is to be "the start of something big" (and it has all the earmarks), then shorter term OB/OS indicators can get way overdone. I'm inclined to hang onto trading longs for a longer time here, as this doesn't look like just another short term pop. I'd also use any weakness to move some longer money back into long term equities.
The next thing I'd look for is for the weekly MACD in the S&P to turn bullish. That would put the final nail in the bear's coffin, IMHO.
- Dan
http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/2...
from smile: bottom line is crunch the #'s if it makes sense to refinance then do it, if it doesn't don't.
also check here for refi ideas:
http://www.homeowners.com/whyrefi.html
old adage works here too: bulls & bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
-- posted by smile_1
» Rande - While it would be nice to have an early "victory" (the announcem
While it would be nice to have an early "victory" (the announcement that bin Ladin is in "paradise," for example), the early stages of military action are surrounded by uncertainty. But allied supremacy is without question and it's only a matter of time before that reality sinks in. The threat of terrorist reprisal is another matter, but that's something we're all going to have live with in any event. The markets will adjust to that reality too.
History suggests equity rally: Pru. Sec.
By Tomi Kilgore
Ed Keon, quantitative strategist at Prudential Securities, says history suggests that the recent rally in U.S. equities "may well continue and perhaps become quite vigorous" as U.S.-led forces strike against terrorist targets in Afghanistan. Keon noted that after Pearl Harbor and the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, equity markets initially fell, then recovered and never looked back well before victory was achieved. "The market needs to see progress, but it does not to see proof of victory," he said in a note to clients. He feels that, based solely on historical record, it is possible that the intraday low on Friday, Sept. 21, may represent the low of this market cycle. On that day, the Dow Industrials ($INDU) hit a low of 8,062.34 and the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) hit 1,387.06, compared to Friday's closing levels of 9,119.77 and 1,605.30, respectively. He cautioned, however, that current valuations are fair, but not cheap, and a big rally could leave the market overvalued. "We suggest that investors mimic U.S. military forces: act vigorously and confidently, but with discipline," Keon suggested.
-- posted by Rande
» Rande - Three Scenarios
Kerschner's three scenariosBy Julie Rannazzisi
UBS Warburg's Edward Kerschner pinpointed three possible scenarios for the market as a military conflict against targeted Afghan targets unfolds. The best-case scenario assumes that the Sept. 11 tragedies are isolated and that there is a clear victory in the battle against terrorism. This would support GDP growth of 3 to 4 percent in 2002 and S&P operating earnings growth of 11 to 22 from 2001 levels. Another scenario outlined by Kerschner assumes no clear victory over terrorism but also assumes that terrorism does not become a part of everyday life in the U.S. This case projects a moderate recession, with growth resuming in the second quarter of 2002 and S&P 500 operating EPS growth of 3 to 10 percent next year. The last scenario -- the worst-case one analyzed by Kerschner -- assumes that terrorist activities and U.S. retaliation create an ongoing state of uncertainty that dents consumer confidence and discourages investment. Economic activity would then be severely impacted and 2002 S&P 500 EPS would be down 3 to 10 percent from 2001. UBS Warburg believes the middle-case scenario will ultimately be the one to play out. Kerschner said margin improvement suggests a return to a more normal profit environment in late 2002 and into 2003. He also sustains that under almost any profit outlook, stocks now look cheap. UBS Warburg's Edward Kerschner pinpointed three possible scenarios for the market as a military conflict against targeted Afghan targets unfolds. The best-case scenario assumes that the Sept. 11 tragedies are isolated and that there is a clear victory in the battle against terrorism. This would support GDP growth of 3 to 4 percent in 2002 and S&P operating earnings growth of 11 to 22 from 2001 levels. Another scenario outlined by Kerschner assumes no clear victory over terrorism but also assumes that terrorism does not become a part of everyday life in the U.S. This case projects a moderate recession, with growth resuming in the second quarter of 2002 and S&P 500 operating EPS growth of 3 to 10 percent next year. The last scenario -- the worst-case one analyzed by Kerschner -- assumes that terrorist activities and U.S. retaliation create an ongoing state of uncertainty that dents consumer confidence and discourages investment. Economic activity would then be severely impacted and 2002 S&P 500 EPS would be down 3 to 10 percent from 2001. UBS Warburg believes the middle-case scenario will ultimately be the one to play out. Kerschner said margin improvement suggests a return to a more normal profit environment in late 2002 and into 2003. He also sustains that under almost any profit outlook, stocks now look cheap.
-- posted by Rande
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