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Top 1922. Oct 4, 2001 7:10 PM

» skp - 80 % Bulls

09/23/01 Reuters Wire: "U.S. economy set to prove its resiliency... Activist macroeconomic policymakers will force the V-shaped recovery... Greenspan, widely revered for his economic leadership in good times and bad, was equally upbeat."

09/22/01 Dow Jones Newswire: "AG Edwards Strategist Sees V-Shaped Recovery for Markets."

09/21/01 Dow Wire: "The sentiment among most financial planners is that investors who are diversified and don't need the money for at least another five years should sit tight... As long as it's long-term money, I would absolutely be a buyer' (said a financial planner)."

09/22/01 Dow Wire: "Scudder Investments Sees Fast Economic Recovery."

09/22/01 Dow Wire: "Will Margin Calls Beget More Calls- Or Market Bottom? ...In general there was a lot of capitulation yesterday. That's generally a good sign. Generally when people panic in a capitulation, it's usually the bottom."

09/21/01 Wall Street Journal: (A chief investment officer) "said the large volumes had some of the hallmarks of 'capitulation' selling, which can mark the end of a downturn."

09/24/01 Barron's: (Quoting a well-known economist whose last name rhymes with "Bardini") "Now there's a greater chance of a steeper, V-shaped recovery for the economy and profits. We'll go down harder, but we'll bounce back faster."

09/22/01 Financial Times: "There is plenty of value to be found by investors with long-term horizons."

09/20/01 Dow Wire: "With the S&P 500 below 1,000 and at a three-year low, how do you respond? If you're First Union Securities, you up the equity weighting in your model portfolio to 72 percent from 70 percent."

09/19/01 Dow Wire: "High Net-Worth Investors Remain Calm in Wake of Turmoil... (per a money manager) we've gotten some new business... We've absolutely put that business into equities."

09/20/01 Dow Wire: "The key question about the stock markets right now is (per an analyst) is the United States going out of business, and I say it's not."

09/20/01 Money Magazine (online): "And however hard it may be, try to imagine what things will be like a couple of years from now, once 90 percent of the current anxiety has passed. Seems to me we're going to see stock prices a lot higher by then, particularly for the technology issues that have been so badly battered over the past year."

09/17/01 Time Magazine (online): "So maybe it's time to relearn an old lesson: Buy the dip. It hasn't worked lately. But now that it's no longer popular, it just might be smart."

Could be 30% downside and 25% upside, this does not look good to me.

I could be wrong.

-- posted by skp

Top 1923. Oct 5, 2001 7:30 AM

» lcha - Buffett on Recession

Oct. 5, 2001, 8:49AM

Buffett chimes in: U.S. on brink of 'deep' recession
Reuters News Service

NEW YORK -- Legendary investor and multibillionaire Warren Buffett says the United States is in a recession that probably is "relatively deep and extended."

Buffett's statement reinforces what many economists consider a foregone conclusion: The U.S. economy is entering a recession. The fallout of the Sept. 11 attacks -- less spending and travel by consumers and businesses alike -- worsened an already weak U.S. economy. Recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

"I'm sure we are in a recession, probably a relatively deep and extended one, but they are part of business life and we are prepared," Buffett said in a Sept. 26 memo posted on the Web site of his holding company, Berkshire Hathaway.

The bearish comments by Buffett follow myriad signals of recessionary pressure in the U.S. economy, such as rising unemployment and declining corporate profits.

Buffett noted that Omaha, Neb.-based Berkshire has estimated $2.2 billion in losses related to the Sept. 11 attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon, but said its final insurance exposure is unknown.

"We've labeled this a `guess' because that's all it is," Buffett said in the statement. "It will be many years before we can tell the world within a narrow range what the true figure was."

But Buffett's memo also carried a reassuring tone. While saying Berkshire's "loss is huge," Buffett said it is nevertheless "one Berkshire can easily bear."

Who is this guy anyway? Didn't he invent the idea that you should stand in line to get your own food rather than be served? Probably just another unsuccessful perma-bear.

-- posted by lcha

Top 1924. Oct 5, 2001 8:04 AM

» lcha - Re: Re: Re: 10-year Treasury currently at 4.

In response to message posted by Kirk:

Kirk, I understand your point on earnings valuations in a recession but do you think it is fair to compare p/e ratios in this recession with p/e ratios in past recessions? It would be a recession-to-recession comparison.

-- posted by lcha

Top 1925. Oct 5, 2001 8:11 AM

» smile_1 - Re: Buffett on Recession

In response to message posted by lcha:

Buffet's exposure to insurance is huge... going forward, hopefully further major losses will not be incurred...

goes back to the old saying when your neighbor losses his/her job, you are in recession, but when you lose your job you are in deep do do recession...

-- posted by smile_1

Top 1926. Oct 5, 2001 9:32 AM

» Kirk - Re: Re: Re: Re: 10-year Treasury currently at 4.

In response to message posted by lcha:

not unless you also compare the reason for the recession and that includes inflation rate and yield on alternative, taxable investments. Also, Tax rate in 73/74 bear was much higher if I remember and am not sure if we had a LOW capital gains tax as we do now.. All this changes the relative value of investments. Single numbers are USEFUL but it is naive to believe you can draw any USEFUL conclusions from a single numerical comparison.

-- posted by Kirk

Top 1927. Oct 5, 2001 3:54 PM

» Rande - The Latest -- 10/5/01

Nice to have a second up week in a row. Enjoy......

The Latest (as of 10/5 close):

YTD 2001:

DJIA -15.5%
S&P -18.9%
SPY -17.8%
VTSMX (W5000 Index Fund) -18.4%
Nas -35.0%
QQQ -45.6%
R2000 -14.2%
MDY (S&P 400 Midcap) -13.9%
VEURX (European Index Fund) -25.2%

Since 12/31/99:

DJIA -20.7%
S&P -27.1%
SPY -25.3%
VTSMX -26.7%
Nas -60.6%
QQQ -65.2%
R2000 -17.8%
MDY +1.2%
VEURX -31.0%
50/50 Total Stock/Total Bond -2.6%
(includes Total Bond through yesterday)

Since Previous Closing Lows:

DJIA (9/21/01) +10.7%
S&P (9/21/01) +10.9%
SPY (9/21/01) +10.6%
W5000 Fund (9/21/01) +11.0%
Nas (9/21/01) +12.8%
QQQ (9/21/01) +12.7%
R2000 (9/21/01) +9.5%
MDY (9/21/00) +8.7%
VEURX (9/21/01) +15.3%

Since Previous Closing Highs:

DJIA (1/14/00) -22.2%
S&P (3/24/00) -29.9%
SPY (3/24/00) -28.5%
VTSMX (3/24/00) -31.6%
Nas (3/10/00; ) -78.2%
QQQ (3/24/00) -73.0%
R2000 (3/9/00) -31.5%
MDY (9/7/00) -19.1%
VEURX (3/24/00) -33.3%
___________________________

Benchmark Closing Lows (lows since previous all-time highs):

DJIA 8235.81 (9/21/01)
S&P 965.80 (9/21/01)
SPY 97.28 (9/21/01)
VTSMX 21.40 (9/21/01)
Nas 1423.19 (9/21/01) (intra -- 1387.06 on 9/21/01)
QQQ 28.19 (9/21/01) (intra -- 27.20 on 9/21/01)
R2000 378.89 (9/21/01)
MDY 74.45 (9/21/01)
VEURX 16.85 (9/21/01)

Market Cycle Peak to Trough:

DJIA (1/14/00 - 9/21/01) -29.8%
S&P (3/24/00 - 9/21/01) -36.8%
SPY (3/24/00 - 9/21/01) -35.3%
VTSMX (3/24/00 - 9/21/01) -38.2
Nas (3/10/00 - 9/21/01) -71.8%
QQQ (3/24/00 - 9/21/01) -76.1%
___________________________

Index returns are price change only, ETFs and mutual funds including divs/distributions. Returns not guaranteed as to accuracy -- relying on unaudited third-party sources (may have missed a dividend or two, which would understate returns).

-- posted by Rande