Special Note to Online Subscribers

» Happy - When things are bad, they are never as bad as they seem.

Am I the only one that noticed that on a day when the total market was down 2.2%, the Saavy portfolio, after being savaged these last few days, was only down 0.5%.

Could this be the inflection point?

-- posted by Happy

» Mark_J - mr happy

Here we are at Naz 3600ish. Today was not an inflection point. Of that, I feel pretty strongly.

We could argue whether or not last week at 4274, were we at an inflection point? I don't think so. We're going to go back and test that high.

It's a gut feeling. And I could be wrong.

-- posted by Mark_J

» Happy - I am sorry Mark.

Actually, in mathematical terms the inflection point is where the second derivative equals zero.

-- posted by Happy

» Kirk - YTD Returns

What has been very instructive as well as amazing to me... The Stock Portfolio has been very volatile, but has stayed positive after the first week of the year. I think it is due to the "diode action" where we "rectify profits" on strength and then put some back on weakness.

Sort of like turning ocean waves into electricity, we skim a bit of profits that way.

It sure reminds me of 1994 where I bought some very good technology companies on big dips and ended up doing something like 20% for the year when all was said and done while the actual market was actually down a tad that year.

I'm showing "Kirk's Online Newsletter stock portfolio" is up 4.8% YTD

Not bad to beat the indexs and an old pro like Brinker. I often feel my portfolio has less risk than his as my stocks have earnings unlike many of the stocks in his Mutual fund portfolios. To me, beta does NOT tell the whole story.

From Rande: (Since 12/31/99

DJIA -8.58%
S&P -3.36%
SPY -2.77%
W5000 Fund -3.63%
Nas -9.98%

Marketimer:
P1 (fully invested) -1.85%
P1 (40/60) +1.29%

(I beat the NASDAQ because the stocks I own have decent earnings and low PEGs. This gives reasonable downside protection)

-- posted by Kirk

» Kirk - Still Beating the Averages

It was a bloody week as my semiconductor capital equipment stocks got hammered while my, NOW, largest holdings in Citigroup and BTTRX set new highs!

So much easier during these times to just let the retirement, go windsurfing rather than work hard, portfolio do the work for me. Then again, I couldn't sell any newsletters this way! Actually, with the extra risk I take, I am happy to be ahead of all the benchmarks, even if just a bit. Well, all but Money markets which would probably be up about 3% YTD.

I have two portfolios;
The one I actively manage and it is up 1.5% YTD. Loads of work…
My benchmark, go windsurfing and forget about CNBC, portfolio is ALSO up 1.5% YTD!
Last year my "actively managed" stock portfolio was up 117% handily beating the NASDAQ when it did 85% and this year I am beating it again! Not bad… 8)

Much work, but overall, I will take the 117%x1.105=119% for 1999 + 2000 performance vs maybe 10% total for money funds or 85%x(1-.0688)=79% for the NASDAQ over the same period!

YEAR TO DATE TOTALS

Money Market Funds over         +3% & under +4%

Kirk's Newsletter Stock Portfolio        +1.5%
Kirk's Newsletter Mutual Fund Portfolio  +1.5%
R2000                                    +1.09%
SPY                                      +0.85%
S&P                                      +0.18% 
W5000 Fund                               +0.17%
QQQ                                      -0.34%
DJIA                                     -4.08%
Nas                                      -6.88% 

Hmmmm…..Not bad and I am sure happy with my stocks on a PEG basis.

BTW, I sent out an email alert yesterday about a profit taking event as well as another purchase. Email me if you didn't get it as my mailing list often burps!

IF you are interested in a free sample of my newsletter, then click the sample link below.

-- posted by Kirk

» Happy - Kirk, the trouble is almost all your best performers were the ea

-- posted by Happy

» Happy - Second best performer.

-- posted by Happy

» Kirk - Norm

chart of C since purchase.

I am not going to appologise for having a good stock that doesn't correct more than 20% and stay there for more then a short time. I look at it as similar to Cisco... Great company but hard to recommend buying when hitting new highs...but I'l take credit for it in my portfolio.

I guess I just don't understand your complaints. What am I to do, make a portfolio return for everyone? I just don't see your point of telling me how well (or poorly) some of the stocks you choose do compared to my overall portfolio. I manage a SINGLE total portfolio, not the stocks that each subscriber chooses and times every subscriber buys an issue. I suppose someone could pick half the stocks in the newsletter stock portfolio and be unlucky enough to pick the lowest half performance wise... I think they would have terrible performance as it is usually just one or two great stocks that give the majority of the returns.

You told me in email that you didn't buy LRCX when it was $10 split adjusted and I was banging the table last year for subscribers to buy. You said you didn't buy because it had already tripled. It sat in the safe to buy zone for many weeks last year and is even now more than double off that level and has been as high as 5.5 times higher where we took profits! So you missed C and LRCX... two of my better picks. Congratulations on Intel.

A portfolio can have 10 stocks and I'd expect 1 to be stellar and 1 to really suck...if you miss buying the stellar stock, your results will not be as good. I feel happy that I had more than one stellar pick in 1999.

-- posted by Kirk

» Kirk - For the record

My portfolio started with 5 stocks and ALL have had corrections into the safe to buy zones.

Chart of C, FDX, LRCX, AMAT and UTEK.

This chart CLEARLY shows that C has had several corrections that you could have bought and missed. (Look at my definition of a HOLD. It has a correction level where it turns to a buy...)

-- posted by Kirk

» Kirk - Lets try that again

Chart of C since purchase and a Chart of C vs the NASDAQ since purchase. C had declines from $51 to $40 and from $60 to $48 that you could have bought. I bought more XLF as I liked the valuation better, but C could have been bought and it would have done even better than my adding XLF.

Chart of C, FDX, LRCX, AMAT and UTEK.

You can see the flat area last year where LRCX was nipping at $30 ($10 split adjusted) between Feb and June. Ample opportunity to buy my top winner and many emailed that they did buy there.

-- posted by Kirk