Jim Cramer:TSCM, Mad Money & The Street.com
- Happy_2
- Bill_Duffy
- Thruhiker
- Normxxx
- Normxxx
- JackSwanson
- axolotl
- dna2
- Thruhiker
- Happy_2
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» Happy_2 - Re: GOOGle (@ $256) Still Looks Cheap, Not Absurd
In response to GOOGle (@ $256) Still Looks Cheap, Not Absurd posted by Kirk:Good pick by Cramer. Too bad he only recommended buying ONE share.
Of course, this would have been a good thing if GOOG had gone down. As usual, Cramer has all the bases covered.
-- posted by Happy_2
» Bill_Duffy - Re: SMART 'MONEY'?
.I like to watch the show primarily to observe how Cramer thinks and listen to his perception of cause and effect among companies and sectors. I always make my own decisions and never invest in anything just because he says it's a buy.
But I think some people could easily be mislead by this show if they don't know how to decide for themselves.
I've always been amazed how some people will spend months researching which car to buy but will just jump into an investment will very little or no research.
-- posted by Bill_Duffy
» Thruhiker - Re: Cramer's Mad Money Record Speaks for Itself
In response to Cramer's Mad Money Record Speaks for Itself posted by Kirk:.
He's entertaining if nothing else.
For those who follow gurus...and you know who you are...last nite he said to back the truck up (with the appropriate sound effects) and LOAD UP on Sepracor SEPR. Time will tell.
-- posted by Thruhiker
» Normxxx - Re: Re: Cramer's Mad Money Record Speaks for Itself
In response to Re: Cramer's Mad Money Record Speaks for Itself posted by Thruhiker:May be good for a put? Wonder what the "squeeze" factor will be?
-- posted by Normxxx
» Normxxx - Re: Re: Buy -- Yes, Buy -- Microsoft and Cisco
In response to Re: Buy -- Yes, Buy -- Microsoft and Cisco posted by Kirk:Last week, the market nearly reached new heights. Volume was heavy the previous week, the action was positive and technicals were positioned for bullish signals. What happened? Apparently traders weren't ready for a 'primetime' breakout to a larger trading range. Going back to last November's election breakout, the S&P 500 has been confined to a tight range of 1140-1230 (4% on either side). The Nasdaq has been confined to a wider range of 1905-2191 (7.5% on either side). So, for the last eight months the market has been rangebound.
Going back further, the S&P 500 is up 7.5% (where the bulk of the gains came in the 4th quarter of last year) since January 2004 while the Nasdaq is up 3%. Disappointing if you are a bear, equally disappointing if you are a bull. How are we to interpret this action? It's important to understand the context of a rangebound market and what a breakout (or breakdown) looks like. Rangebound markets generally move with the ebbs and flows of information without any particular bias to direction.
However, breakouts/breakdowns can be witnessed by an extreme volume move as the market moves over/under critical resistance/support. Did this happen last week? I would say no. Looking to a weekly chart, markets have just fallen back into the lower portion of a tighter range. Certainly, volume was a driver this week. Bulls would like to see lower volume selling. But it appears this may be a normal 'flushout' of excess buyers prior to the next leg up.
Again, several bullish technical signals are still intact. MACD is still strongly positive and stochastics are still driving higher. The weekly S&P 500 is just above its lower 20 period Bollinger Band (around 1186) indicating that further downside is limited. Additionally, the market has become very oversold on a short-term basis...also indicating a bounce is imminent.
There's been alot of 'chatter' lately about this market action. Several media outlets have been 'screaming' about further selloffs, corrections, etc. It's important to keep this within the total context of the information being disbursed....in other words, be careful about what you're hearing. Read the market signs and interpret the action without any 'third party' opinions. Psychology is heaviest when markets are in a quandary. Panic sets in just as easily as exuberance, especially when everyone's confused. Uncertainty about markets and direction has never been worse than now. Data at every corner can move markets in either direction: higher oil prices, a potential housing bubble, and rising inflation amidst an economic slowdown can twist and turn this market in all directions. Make sure you have a full bottle of Tums handy, but stay focused!
The SPX has now fallen hard back down to the 10-week exponential moving average, which sits at 1190.
This crude-related sell-off provides a more confident recipe for trading going forward. I couldn't quite figure out why equity markets and crude should continue to go up together. Now that is no longer the case.
A move up in crude to $63 should put in an important top for oil, and should also take the SPX down further to important support— at 1186, or in a worst case scenario around 1172. That 1172 area is also near the 40-week exponential moving average, which is typically re-visited a few times in the middle of a big trend.
This looks to me like a trend-extending bout of bearishness. Healthy uptrends need some negativity to keep the upside pressure alive. Big trending moves are formed on the backs of wrong-way bets, followed by momentum traders piling in with the trend. I think this may be the trend recharging before a final big spurt to the upside.
While the downside pressure has been strong, the SPX has still retraced less than 38.2% of the recent uptrend. It's part of the normal rhythm of a trend to go back and revisit this 38.2% area, which is an important Fibonacci harmonic level. This sort of retracement is quite common, even in the middle of very strong trends. Many trends will retrace to the 50% or even 61.8% retracement levels before continuing in the original direction.
Yet, anecdotally speaking, I'm seeing lots of instantly bearish commentary, with many saying this is the "big one" and a major decline is imminent. To me this is precisely parallel to what just happened in the bond market, when a seemingly major top and new bear market in bonds was quickly reversed.
I think this correction now is setting up the ultimate blow-off move to the upside. I'm going to try to capture some of this with (hopefully) a low-risk entry. I'll look to get into that as the SPX reaches the 1186 area, which should come early this week.
One thing to watch for will be a move down underneath the 10-week exponential moving average at 1190, where that level is subsequently re-captured very quickly. I'll definitely want to go long on that move back up through the 10-week average, as that could be a slingshot move in the works. The quicker this plays out— i.e., the less time the SPX spends under the 10-week average and the quicker it rebounds— the stronger the probability of a slingshot set-up move to 1280.
The Nasdaq reported that short interest (shares sold and not yet covered, which is generally a bet on falling prices, where contrarily higher is bullish) rose in June despite a 5% rally in the Nasdaq Composite since the May report. When short interest is divided by volume, you get the Short Interest Ratio, which is a theoretical measure of how many days of average volume it would take for short sellers to buy back all their shares— the higher the ratio, the more potential buying power exists. The Short Interest Ratio on the Nasdaq is now 3.55, the second-highest in the past 10 years, behind only the 3.84 reading we saw in September 2004. This remains a long-term positive for technology shares
Nevertheless, despite very poor market performance on Thursday and Friday, options traders appear to be in no great rush for protection. On Friday, ISE traders bought to open nearly 2.5 calls for every put— the highest ratio since January 4th. Perhaps not coincidentally, that was also after two days of heavy selling. I don’t want to read too much into one figure, but it does appear as though traders are treating this as a “buy the dip” opportunity rather than something more ominous. As we saw in January, that usually leads to more trouble.
Supporting the data from the ISE exchange is the "pure" put/call ratio, which actually declined last week to 0.42, its lowest level since March and January. This data tells us that the smallest of options traders, those trading 10 contracts or less at a time, bought to open nearly 2.4 calls for every put last week— a clear sign that small traders see no need to protect themselves at this point. Only 14% of their total volume went to buy protective put options, the least since December and March, and down significantly from the 21% we saw in April.
The contents of this letter/report does not necessarily reflect the opinions or viewpoint of normxxx. They are provided for informational/educational purposes only.
The content of this message is not to be construed as constituting market or investment advice. It is intended for educational purposes only. Individuals should consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.
-- posted by Normxxx
» JackSwanson - Is Kramer retarded?
My old lady saw Kramer on Mad Money the other night, and she asked "is that guy retarded or something?"Jack
-- posted by JackSwanson
» dna2 - My wife
My wife thinks I am retarded for watching him
. I don't watch as often as I used to but he is entertaining. I usually work out during his show and his energy keeps me going. He was in town last week signing his book but I didn't think I needed another book to read. Hope that PA boy enjoyed the green chili during his visit.
-- posted by dna2
» Happy_2 - Re: "Buy a good index fund and watch him for entertainment"
In response to "Buy a good index fund and watch him for entertainment" posted by Kirk:The article says Cramer:
"...managed a hedge fund for wealthy families that produced a hearty 24 percent average return after fees for 15 years...".
This means for every dollar invested, the investor got back $25.
I WOULD LIKE TO SEE WHERE THIS RECORD IS DOCUMENTED!!!!!!!
Cramer's mother doesn't count.
-- posted by Happy_2
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