XLF, Banking and Financial Sector Stocks

Top 176. Jan 15, 2004 12:35 PM

» Kirk - Re: Thruhiker's BTO

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In response to message posted by Thruhiker:

Nice gains on your BTO!

Your BTO beat the two funds, XLF and FSRBX, that I went with. I wonder if it was the discount or is the discount still there?

-- posted by Kirk

Top 177. Jan 15, 2004 1:40 PM

» Kirk - JPM/ONE merger implications for payment processors

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10:04AM JPM/ONE merger implications for payment processors : Merrill Lynch believes that the JPM acquisition of ONE has mixed implications for payment processors First Data (FDC) and Total System Services (TSS), and should not have any impact on CheckFree (CKFR). Firm does not (at least initially) see any negative impact on FDC's merchant processing operations from the merger, but says it complicates FDC's PIN-based debit network relationships. Regarding card issuance, since FDC has a broad relationship with JPM covering both merchant and card issuance processing, firm thinks JPM may want to leave ONE's card processing at FDC, and thinks it is less likely that JPM could choose to enhance its relationship with TSS. Also, since both banks have recently moved their online bill payment operations away from CKFR, they see no impact on that co. On the other hand, Lehman says that since it appears that ONE mgmt will take charge of the combined card processing biz, they believe that ONE mgmt's argument to use TSS's platform on a licensed basis will be even stronger and the co is positioned to land the combined program.
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk...

-- posted by Kirk

Top 178. Mar 5, 2004 9:39 AM

» Kirk - New All Time Highs for XLF, FSRBX & BTO

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<img src=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Sharp...>

Congratulations to all here who bought long ago in 1999 and 2000 in the low $20's!

This has been a big winner for both my newsletter and personal portfolios!

Hats off to Fidelity

for great performance relative to the benchmark!

I own some FSRBX in my IRA.

and thruhikers BTO....
<img src=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Sharp...>

impressive!

-- posted by Kirk

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/Stra...

Top 179. Apr 15, 2004 11:50 AM

» Normxxx - Model Behaviorist

Model Behaviorist

By Jon Markman | Wednesday, April 14, 2004

Jon leverages a proprietary stock-rating system based on StockScouter at MSN Money to go long and short stocks in a mostly mechanical model, though he also will "swing trade" opportunistically.

If the refi boom is over, so is the regional bank rally.

The weakness of regional financial banks’ shares reflects the perception among investors that the end of the refinancing boom is upon us. Regional banks that make loans to residential and commercial developers and home buyers mint money as rates go down, but see margins shrink as rates go back up.

My sole play in that area is Commercial Capital Bancorp (CCBI, news, msgs), based in Irvine, Calif. Its shares have declined for the past seven days in a row on increasing volume and closed Monday for the first time in a year below their 50-day moving average. The stock’s weekly chart is actually even weaker, as it closed Tuesday below its nine-week moving average for the first time in 14 months.

Squiggles on a chart don’t mean much sometimes and are often misinterpreted, but in this case they provide a visual representation of the decline in investor interest in companies leveraged to real estate. A lot of money has been made in this group in the past three years, but all good things must come to an end. The profits appear to be rotating to other sectors, including small-cap health care, energy and defense.

I have had good luck in the small-cap health care area so far this round, and one new name that has surfaced in my models is Amedisys (AMED). It is a provider of home health-care nursing services throughout the South. I also like the improving telecommunications sector, and Mexico, and so am attracted to America Movil (AMX) -- a provider of wireless phone services throughout Latin America, covering nearly half of Mexico, as well as much of Brazil, Guatemala, Colombia, Ecuador, Argentina, Uruguay and Nicaragua.

Among stocks not rated in the 8 to 10 area by StockScouter, the Tuesday decline could provide a good entry point for TRM Corp. (TRMM), which I have described previously in my column, as well as Scientific Games (SGMS).

For now, though, I’m going to just sell the banks, and come back with a couple new ideas later in the week.

The content of this message is not to be construed as constituting market or investment advice. It is intended for educational purposes only.

-- posted by Normxxx

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml...

Top 180. Apr 22, 2004 3:32 PM

» SteveT - Ex-Banker Quattrone Knew About Fed Probes -Witness

Ex-Banker Quattrone Knew About Fed Probes -Witness
Thu Apr 22, 2004 06:09 PM ET

By Paul Thomasch

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A key prosecution witness testified on Thursday that he telephoned Frank Quattrone about federal investigations hours before the former star investment banker forwarded an e-mail advising co-workers to "clean up" their files.

Jurors hearing evidence in the obstruction of justice and witness tampering trial of Quattrone -- who one year earned $120 million in compensation -- also learned that the financier was told about grand jury subpoenas in advance of sending the controversial e-mail at the center of the case.

David Brodsky, Credit Suisse First Boston's former general counsel, recounted for jurors a call he placed to Quattrone on Dec. 5, 2000, to tell him that the "inquiries going on were likely to lead to him being called as a witness" and advising him to retain a personal lawyer.

About eight hours after that telephone call, Quattrone forwarded and endorsed an e-mail to other bankers at CSFB telling them it would be wise to "clean up" their files.

Brodsky also told jurors he had previously spoken with Quattrone about the matter. He testified that two days earlier -- Dec. 3, 2000 -- he sent a series of e-mails to the banker regarding the "extreme concern" he had about broadening investigations of the bank, including subpoenas that had been issued for documents and records.

When Quattrone forwarded the now infamous e-mail, CSFB was under investigation by federal prosecutors and the staff of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, who were interested in how the bank allocated shares of hot stock offerings.

Prosecutors charge that Quattrone interfered with those investigations when he forwarded the e-mail, and did so to save his own reputation, pay and career.

Later, Brodsky told jurors during cross examination that he did not believe Quattrone had done anything wrong when they spoke on the telephone Dec. 5, even though he advised the banker to retain a lawyer during that conversation.

Attorney John Keker's cross examination of the star witness, however, was slowed by a series of objections from prosecutors.

U.S. District Judge Richard Owen upheld most of the objections, and at one point asked federal prosecutors, "Are you objecting to that? Because I would sustain that objection."

The judge's remark drew laughter and groans from the courtroom crowd, which included a number of Quattrone's friends, business associates and family members.

After a brief conference with lawyers, the judge demanded the "slight laughter and comments" from the audience "stop forthwith."

"Obviously this is impermissible in this courtroom," he said.

Federal prosecutors are expected to wrap up their case on Friday, after reading back to jurors some of Quattrone's testimony from his first trial.

-- posted by SteveT

Top 181. Jun 30, 2004 9:44 AM

» Q_out - Rising Interest Rate Headwinds

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With the Federal Reserve expected today to announce the first of several increases in interest rates, I thought I'd look back and see how Citigroup has done in past rising interest rate environments.

For my study, I looked at five times in the past 30 years that the Federal Reserve has started a series of increases in the discount rate. I am ignoring the isolated increase of 50 basis points from 8.5% to 9.0% on April 9, 1984 that was reversed by the Fed 7 months later.

In the first period, beginning August 30, 1977, the Fed raised the discount rate 14 times in 2 1/2 years, beginning at 5.25% and ending at 13.0% on February 15, 1980.

After three 1 percent cuts in the middle of 1980, the Fed again began to raise rates with four one percent increases beginning September 26, 1980 to take the discount rate from 10.0% to 14.0% on May 5, 1981.

In the third period, the Federal Reserve raised rates in three widely spaced half point moves. On September 4, 1987 the discount rate rose from 5.5% to 6.0%. Nearly a year later on August 9, 1988 they raised it to 6.5%. Finally on February 24, 1989 the rate was raised one last time to 7.0%.

In the fourth period, the rate rose from 3.0% to 5.25% in four increases between May 17, 1994 and February 1, 1995.

In 1999, the Fed began a series of smaller, more regular increases. On August 24, 1999, they raised rates from 4.5% to 4.75%. This was followed by four more increases resulting in a rise to 6.0% by May 16, 2000.

The following chart shows the performance of the Citigroup stock during the 18 months following the initial rate increase. The performance is measured from the opening price on the day of the first Fed increase.
<img src="/files/mysites/qout/citi.gif" width=568 height=328>

You can see that while the stock price was down in all five cases eight weeks after the rate increase, the longer term effects were more varied. At the end of 18 months, the stock price was down three times, up once and unchanged once.

<img src="/files/mysites/qout/bhoestarts.gif" width=53 height=34 align="left">
Q_out
DISCLAIMER: My words and observations are general in nature, and are not meant as specific investment advice. Individuals should consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.

-- posted by Q_out

Top 182. Jun 30, 2004 12:21 PM

» SteveT - Re: Rising Interest Rate Headwinds

In response to message posted by Q_out:

Q, Citigroup is my single largest stock holding and has been since 1990. I very much appreciate someone that takes on a project like this for the benefit of the entire community. I do have a question and comment.

Is the data you are using really that of the old CitiCORP or Travelers? As I understand it after the 1998 merger Travelers was the surviving entity. I have not spent a great deal of time researching this but from what I have seen data pre 1998 is actually that of Travelers.

If the data is actually the old Citicorp it is a far different company today than it was.

Thanks

-- posted by SteveT

Top 183. Jun 30, 2004 6:38 PM

» Q_out - Re: Re: Rising Interest Rate Headwinds

In response to message posted by SteveT:

I'm afraid I don't know whether the older data is from Citicorp or Travelers. I just used the data from Yahoo! for ticker symbol C.

Since I'm not sure, I thought I'd repeat the chart for another financial stock, American Express.
<img src="/files/mysites/qout/axp.gif" width=526 height=328>

For American Express, the results are more of a coin toss -- up twice, down twice and unchanged once after 18 months.

-- posted by Q_out

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/041213/citibank_...

Top 184. Dec 13, 2004 3:52 PM

» SteveT - Citibank to Issue American Express Cards

Citibank to Issue American Express Cards
Monday December 13, 5:56 pm ET
By Eileen Alt Powell, AP Business Writer
American Express Signs Agreement With Citibank to Issue Its Credit Cards

NEW YORK (AP) -- American Express Co., the travel and financial services company, announced Monday that it has signed an agreement with the banking giant Citibank to issue its credit cards.

It was the second such deal that American Express has reached with a U.S. financial institution. In January, American Express said MBNA Corp. would issue its cards; distribution began this fall.

American Express, based in New York, said that cards issued by Citibank "will be accepted on the American Express global merchant network." It said it expected the new cards to be available in late 2005.

Citibank is the retail and corporate banking division of Citigroup Inc., the nation's largest financial institution. Citigroup is headquartered in New York.

Financial terms of the agreement were not disclosed.

The choice of Citibank as a partner was not entirely unexpected.

On Nov. 15, American Express sued Visa and MasterCard as well as eight banks for damages stemming from anticompetitive practices that prevented American Express from issuing cards through U.S. banks.

Citigroup was not among the major banks named in the case.

American Express' lawsuit -- and a similar one brought by Discover Financial Services, a unit of New York-based Morgan Stanley -- followed an Oct. 4 ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court in an antitrust case brought by the Justice Department that accused Visa and MasterCard of restraining competition. The high court's decision let stand a lower court ruling requiring Visa and MasterCard to allow member banks to issue competing cards.

The Supreme Court ruling cleared the way for American Express and Discover to begin partnering with U.S. financial institutions.

In a statement accompanying Monday's announcement, American Express chairman and chief executive Kenneth I. Chenault called Citibank "a tremendous addition to the American Express network."

He added: "We are committed to working with outstanding partners like Citibank and the premiere customer experience they provide."

Citibank said in a statement: "We're looking forward to the new relationship with American Express, and we're committed to providing the same high quality Citi products and services to Citibank card members using the American Express network that we provide today to all our card members."

Citibank in the past mainly issued MasterCard credit and debit products.

The deal was announced after the close of regular trading. In Monday trading, American Express shares fell 14 cents to close at $55.04 on the New York Stock Exchange. Citigroup shares rose 86 cents to finish at $46.77, also on the Big Board.

www.americanexpress.com

www.citigroup.com

-- posted by SteveT