Energy, Energy Service, Natural Gas & Oil Sectors
- Hugs
- RandeS
- RandeS
- RandeS
- Hugs
- RandeS
- DennisL
- RandeS
- DennisL
- Gene
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» Hugs - how high is too high?
In regards to the Asian recovery, if $10-14 oil did do all that much to help the recovery, is $15-19 going to do that much to hurt it? Seems from what I've read that many of these oil services co.'s can do quite okay with oil in the mid to higher teens (certain better valuation than what the street has them relegated to now.) Forty dollar oil would be a whole different story, and outside of a major political disaster in the middle east isn't going to happen. How high is to high to cause major asian recovery problems? There ought to be some people smart enough to figure that stuff out, but it's not me. I've seen reports claiming oil might go as low as $ 5, but I can't believe that either. So, how about in the middle...$13-17 oil? Dosen't everybody know these OPEC guys slip some out the back door? Wouldn't even a 50% compliance on a 2 mil bpd cutback would bring oil prices up to at least these mid-teen levels? Why is this so unbelievable to think that it probably only a short lived "spike" to 15? What about the understated domestic demand here in this country?Okay, it was a little earlier in Nov. to start into the oil patch. But it sure looks like April may be late. A hit into this 2 weeks ago is already scoring runs...Are you sure this isn't the time to buy the dips? (I might sell the spikes up a little more first though...) At this point, guess I'd have to say it would be nice to feel confident the down trend has been broken. (would you agree to that?)
Hu
-- posted by Hugs
» RandeS - hugs,
hugs,First, again, I'm not inclined to make any play on any sector, energy or otherwise. But, if I were, my money would not be on energy. I've enjoyed the bull run of the 90s because all along the way I could make a case for financial assets (talk about a "golden era"). I just don't see the same case for oil, gold, commodities, etc., for all the same reasons I continue to favor financial assets. If I was a short-term trader/speculator (and, thankfully, I'm not), then I would play this thing for the dead-cat bounce it's likely to be. Not putting any money where my mouth is, though, I can comfortably afford to wrong as hell.
-- posted by RandeS
» RandeS - Interesting piece in 3/15 Barron's -- page MW13:
Interesting piece in 3/15 Barron's -- page MW13: "Crude Awakening? The oil rally looks like a selling opporunity," by Cheryl Enhorn. She points out that, among other things, as recently as two weeks ago, OPEC members were complying with only 77%of their production cut goals. Moreover, crude supplies rose 4.7 million barrels last week, gas inventories increased the equivalent of 3.1 million barrels, and there were 42 million more barrels of oil stored currently than a year earlier. Heard BB echoing sentiments regarding no change in fundamentals on demand side today as well. Just some food for thought. Time will tell.-- posted by RandeS
» RandeS - Kirk,
Kirk,I'm not ready to take any GGB options, but I did also notice some recent news reports about new oil strikes panning out in/near Nigeria. Hmmmm....still lousy worldwide demand with no turnabout in sight, recently increasing inventories, OPEC track record, and new reserves popping up here and there. If I owned any energy-related stocks, especially if I'd been suffering with them for years, I'd be following Einhorn's advice to sell into this rally.
-- posted by RandeS
» Hugs - do I look like a fish?
Feel like one today, 'cause sometimes you just gotta swim upstream to get stronger.Bought back half what was sold last Thursday (lower, of course.) I still think its going higher. Not sure how much more or for how long, but higher. My oil puppy looks to be growing legs. Above average volume and has not (yet) broken the low of last Friday. Even looking like it wants to move up a little today, so chips are on the table. It's a small one, 'cause I don't like swimmin' with the sharks. (So I'm not going to tout which one it is.)Guess I just don't think many oil producing nations are politically stable enough to tolerate $ 10 crude. Seems the U.S. would prefer modestly higher prices as well, or so I've heard. If the U.S. wants higher priced oil, there's more of a reason for prices to stay up than leaning on the staff of Egypt (..or Saudi Arabia). Know the expression?
Hu
-- posted by Hugs
» Gene - Dennis
How much of that increase is attributed to some refinery outage you mentioned a couple of weeks ago? And doesn't California have the strictest emission regs in the country ergo drives cost higher? Even here on East coast where we also tend to have very high gas prices - unleaded majors per gallon was $.959 and premium was $1.159, means your costs are running at least 30+% higher!Gene
-- posted by Gene
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