Technical Analysis and Charting

Top 57. Mar 21, 1999 8:23 AM

» KirkL - New Bull?

It is usually very difficult to sustain stong upward movements from such a level except maybe in the early stages of a bull market.

Dan, Ralpe Acampora says we are in the start of a "new bull market" and sees 11,500 in the near future. He is a technician, so to speak. Any validity to his arguments? What is he using, the overall market that has been doing poorly except for the super caps like IBM, Dell, AOL, Msft etc that have brought the averages up while most stocks are flat or even down?

I was a bit confused since he was on "Wall Street Week" last Friday and I believe he said he still expected the leaders to lead.

-- posted by KirkL

Top 58. Mar 21, 1999 8:31 AM

» JenL_3 - Minor Selloff??

Dan - Appreciate your comments on current market conditions from a TA perspective. You say that the combined indicators possibly "point to at least a minor selloff (roughly a week or two) if not an intermediate one (month or two)".

Hmmmm - maybe I'll get the chance to buy back in with the cash I took off the table while expecting a market correction (between Dow 9300-9600). But probably would have been better off to have not tried to time the market at all. We'll see.

And you say: "Long term I haven't seen anything yet that would indicate the end of the long bull market, either technically or fundamentally."

That's encouraging, gives me confidence to buy-in at the next dip.

And your summation: "But short term, at the very least this doesn't seem to me to be a time for extreme bullishness. I'd say the caution light is definitely on."

Thanks Dan for your take on the market; very enlightening. Just curious, do you plan on buying if we get a "minor selloff"?....Jen

-- posted by JenL_3

Top 59. Mar 21, 1999 9:00 AM

» Jaybird248 - Off the Table

Hey, Jen, don't feel bad about taking cash off the table, as I did back at 9700 in January. It hasn't traveled much upward from there in the three months since.

Just as the long term upward movement of the market is pretty much assured, so is a pullback from this level. We don't know when or how far or what will cause it (if anything), but it will happen.

Consider DCA'ing back in as the market falls, perhaps 15-20% of the cash removed for every 100 pts backward., and you'll grow in this intermediate term sideways market, while the buy n' holders just mark time and miss interest opportunties on the sidelines..

-- posted by Jaybird248

Top 60. Mar 21, 1999 9:15 AM

» Gene - A Couple of Questions

Dan - Thanks for all the TA on this market. I just got done reading the Barron's 3/22 article on Laslo Birinyi. He is calling for Dow 12,000 by year-end!

He made a point that "he has all the data" to do his analysis and doesn't just extract a few "data points". Also, as a strategist he puts a great store in Money Flows and into what stocks are receiving it etc. What do you think of his work? How close to TA is his analytical work or is it in a class by himself? I know he talks about specific stocks and TA per se doesn't look at that but he seems to have crossed into TA with the Sentiment, Money flows (volume?) and the breadth of the market.

Thanks / Gene

-- posted by Gene

Top 61. Mar 21, 1999 1:01 PM

» TONYBRIG - Could correct for a while

We have to blow past the 10k milestone on a
close. Then we should take-off again.
No-one knows short-term a week or two or three
means not too much for the market.

Who can tell what news will develop?
If much faovrable news then be go up if the
other way then we go down.

Let the market tell me!

I have no short-term options COMING up.
Only June (WCOM)

B.O.L.

-- posted by TONYBRIG

http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/zdisplay.php3?...

Top 62. Mar 21, 1999 1:27 PM

» Karin - Light Crude Oil (FUT) for Jack...

-- posted by Karin

Top 63. Mar 21, 1999 3:45 PM

» DanG_6 - Birinyi

Gene, I have seen Mr. Birinyi on TV a few times, but don't know much about his methods or his track record. I guess I will have to pick up a copy of Barron's and check out that article. I'm not sure exactly what he means by "money flow" into or out of stocks, but he could be referring to Granville's on-balance-volume, or Worden's tick volume. I don't follow those indicators. Outside of chart patterns as described by Edwards and Magee, plus stochastic oscillators and moving averages, I don't pay a lot of attention to the other indicators. You can really get caught up in that stuff if you want to. I don't think it's worth it. There is a guy (Harry Schultz) who used to (and may still) track hundreds of indicators. His track record sucks! So I use TA as an indication to see if we are way out of line one way or another with what is the "norm", but don't make a lifetime work of it.
- Dan

-- posted by DanG_6

Top 64. Mar 22, 1999 4:20 PM

» TONYBRIG - Charts

Charts are ok in that they show what has happened in the
past. Statistics though seem to be lacking on how often these
lagging indicators predict the future. How often does it work?
Thats what I want to see. Not just elaborate charts showing
support & resistance. Stochastics are only as good as they work.
Also they wont work too well in a big sell off now will they?
Oh but they can predict the big SELL OFF some worshippers of charts will say.

Can the charts predict a big IBM or CPQ drop based on earnings shortfall? How about the effect on the whole PC market that this
causes? Can a chart predict what effect bad-news will have on
Investor sentiment? Can a chart predict how a Tom Kurlak for
instance is going to bash INTC and what effect it will have
on their stock? EH!!!

If I have to choose give me an indicator that is a leading indicator
such as the T R A N N I E S.

I havent ruled out charts entirely they should (I do believe)
be studied and considered.

Stochasitcs are so complex and intricate and interwoven they must
be put into the general market that they make themselves (to me)
almost impossible to use. Some tho with the proper tools and
evaluating skills can do the impossible. Or should I say improbable?
Can the charts predict how many times we are going to pull
back from 10k. Before we finally laugh at it.???????????????

When a subject is so complicated then I am very suspicious of it

Now before you recommend a book............... Let me ask you what
is the purpose of the book? Is it to make revenue for the Author/publisher? Or is to give one predictable tools they can use
profitably?

B.O.L.

-- posted by TONYBRIG

Top 65. Mar 23, 1999 4:28 PM

» KirkL - Dan

What do you make of this Chart of the Russell 2000?

Head n shoulders?

Predictions of a flushing? 8)

I can not imagine UltraStink going any lower.... but some are saying a correction will occur if the Russell crashes in the next few days...

-- posted by KirkL