Technical Analysis and Charting

Top 227. Jul 15, 1999 6:47 PM

» TONYBRIG - Hwp

Kirk:

You may want to consider some puts on this one.

VBOLHH

-- posted by TONYBRIG

Top 228. Jul 15, 1999 8:05 PM

» DanG_6 - HWP

Kirk/Tony: As an ex-HPer, I have to say that HP is a stock that you only sell when you absolutely need the money! No chart is necessary!
-Dan

-- posted by DanG_6

Top 229. Jul 16, 1999 2:32 AM

» DanG_6 - Another HP Story

I worked at HP throughout the '70's. I remember an engineer there who, having sold some HP stock to buy a new vehicle (van or whatever they called them in those days), would constantly lament what his "van" was worth in terms of the HP stock he sold. I'm sure he paid less than $10K for the vehicle, and his last gripe that I remember (around the mid 70's) was that his van was "worth" $18,000. I often wonder if he continued to keep track, but by my rough estimates, his van is now "worth" over half a million bucks, and I'm sure it has been sitting in the junk yard for years!
- Dan

-- posted by DanG_6

Top 230. Jul 21, 1999 6:44 AM

» JenL_3 - Some TA on the DJIA

This TA on the DOW is in today's free e-mail newsletter from alpha:

DJIA 1 YR TA chart on Decision Point.com

For Wednesday, if we Open higher (above fair value), we can sustain a Rally UP to 11,100 - now a level of resistance - if this happens you can go Long intraday (the short sellers will cover shorts)...

If we Open below fair value (currently lower!) watch for a quick Sell Off - Selling symbol SPY, traded in AMEX, or QQQ - The Internet Index of 100 companies! My Target is (as I said prior!) the 38% Retracement (down) as confirming a new support around 10,900-10,950 area! The 38%Retracement Number should be right "on the money": As consulting the 60 min. chart we can clearly identify the lowest level reached in the past 30 days, i.e. 10,471, and the highest trading level - 11,250 (which is very close to the one reached on May 13, i.e. 11,244). Then, 11,250 - 10,471 = 769 X 38% = 292.22; 11,250 - 292.22 = 10,957.78 - it gives us the possible 38% Retracement Area - this is when (and where) you Folks must BUY again! After looking all indicators I concluded that: if we break 10,950 I am expecting to see the Dow settles near 10,750- 10,800 near term , i.e. 50% retracement (down) of the recent up-move which will give us tremendous buying opportunities!

Good Luck to you!

The Daily Report is contributed by Milo Y. Georgieff, MSCE Degree, editor of ALFA Mdg Corp., Milo Y. Georgieff is a General Securities Representative,
and an Investment Advisor registered with NASD. He is NALU member and is
providing an audio commentary in Equity Trading, Technical Analysis and
Investing for Atlantic Broadcasting System-Radio, New York.

Here to illustrate is a….

Any comments?…….Jen

-- posted by JenL_3

Top 231. Jul 22, 1999 11:56 PM

» JenL_3 - TA Take on Friday

This from the daily TA e-mail newsletter from alpha:

http://members.spree.com/sip/alfamdgcorp...

"Forcefully and promptly" the Fed Chairman Greenspan causes stocks and bonds to fall!

Hello Folks:

Here is your regular update for Friday, July 23.

To view and read the graphs-trendlines, please visit the Links that we provide using Microsoft Internet Explorer (3.0 or higher), or Netscape Communicator (3.0 or higher).

The trading day on Thursday: The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 33.56 points, or 0.3 percent, to 10969.22;

Federal Reserve policy-makers won't hesitate to raise interest rates again if the economy doesn't slow and inflation shows signs of accelerating.

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, speaking to U.S. lawmakers about monetary and economic policy, failed to throw the battered dollar a lifeline. Instead, Greenspan's warning that the central bank will act "forcefully and promptly" to prevent a pick-up in inflation torpedoed U.S. stocks and bonds, which piled more weight on the U.S. currency.

US Treasury Bond (CBT) futures traded between 117-13 and 116-31 to close at 117-06 (-07+) - 4th day
close above 117.00! Very good Long Term!

But, 30-year bond fell 3/4 point in afternoon trading, pushing up its yield more than 5 basis points to 5.96 percent.

On Thursday I told you that " If we Open below fair value watch for a Break through 10,975 and if we not reverse (UP) there, I am expecting a reversal off (up) at 10,950"; Well, we had the Drop in the morning and we have retraced Down the 38% Level and 10 points below, then the Dow reversed off to move UP to the Top of the Channel (See the 15min Chart), to reverse down again taking into account the negative speech of the Chairman, broke the 10,950 Support to partially touch 10,875, and then Rally again in the end to close above the Support 10,950 (Good!); I said, I am expecting to see the Dow settles near 10,750-10,800 short term
,
i.e. 50% retracement (down) of the recent up-move which will give us tremendous buying opportunities!

The Daily Dow Chart (See 1-year Daily Chart Link) is now reflecting a Neutral Position in stocks short term…..

For Friday, the Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will control the Market again, when he delivers the second part of the so-called Humphrey-Hawkins, means we will have very volatile day again: Note if we Open higher (above fair value), we can sustain a Rally UP to 11,020+ (38% Reverse Off 10,875)! If we open below fair value watch for a Break through 10,950 and if we not reverse (UP) at 10,875, I am expecting a reversal off (up) at 10,800...

Good Luck to you!

The Daily Report is contributed by Milo Y. Georgieff, MSCE Degree, editor of
ALFA Mdg Corp., Milo Y. Georgieff is a General Securities Representative,
and an Investment Advisor registered with NASD. He is NALU member and is
providing an audio commentary in Equity Trading, Technical Analysis and
Investing for Atlantic Broadcasting System-Radio, New York.

Any comments? IMO this guy's TA has been pretty right-on since I've been posting it on this thread ……Jen

-- posted by JenL_3

Top 232. Jul 25, 1999 7:51 AM

» JenL_3 - Tomorrow's Market TA from Alfa

This from the free TA e-mail newsletter from alfa:

http://members.spree.com/sip/alfamdgcorp...

The DJIA Tomorrow!

Another down day of trading - we are getting to the bottom (Short Term)!

Hello Folks:

Here is your regular update for Monday, July 26.

The trading day on Thursday: The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 58.26, or 0.5 percent to 10,910.96; The Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said last week the central bank may raise borrowing costs to head off inflation at any time. The bond and stock markets tumbled, pressuring the dollar further. For the week the DJI lost 298 points, declined 2.7 percent and the NASDAQ Composite lost 172 points, or 6%; That basically wipes out the gains of the prior two weeks.

(The charts to illustrate smile

Alan Greenspan, speaking to U.S. lawmakers about monetary and economic policy, failed to throw the battered dollar a lifeline. The Fed Chairman is confused - he removed the "bias towards raising rates" at first, and set the stage of a "neutral" policy last month to send equities to new records. The Dow hit 11,250 again, flying "sky-high"). Last week, Greenspan warned the central bank would act ``forcefully and promptly'' to nip new inflationary pressures - telling us indirectly to forget about his "neutral bias towards interest rates"

…Well, when the Chairman suddenly changes his position about the Market - I have to do it too!

The Market does not like uncertainty…The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond, which moves opposite from price, rose 5 basis points to 6.02 percent. Bond yields near 6 percent scare people… The Dow Industrials fell 19.2 percent between July 17 and Aug. 31 last year, but the latter part of that rout was sparked by Russia's currency devaluation and debt default…The mutual funds managers remember that fact, and they already started unloading, folks…However, America's trade deficit had ballooned to a record $21.34 billion in May suggested that U.S. growth, running at 4.3 percent in the first quarter may slow in coming months.

Means, the Fed will not have to do much to calm down the economy. I think, Greenspan controls it very well - when he speaks, everybody is listening, nothing is moving…However, I am still Bullish Long Term - we are still in the Bull Market, thus use every weakness to buy shares of your favorite companies,

There are lots of good ways to play this Market now - the volatility will be high in up-coming weeks, thus revise your strategies… The economic focus in the coming week will be the second-Quarter Employment Cost Index and, to a lesser degree, gross domestic product.

The market is going to have a little bit of trouble, because people are going to be very fearful of the data. If the market rallies, it's not going to be a big rally!

On Friday, as I expected after we Opened higher above fair value), we sustained a Short Rally to 11,010+ (Close to 38% retracement line of 11,028), and then Sold Off to partially touch a level below 10,875, then Rallied again in the end to close below the Main Support 10,950, but it formed two (2) new support levels at 10,875 and 10,900!

I said, I am expecting to see the Dow settles near 10,750-10,800 short term, i.e. 50% retracement (down) of the recent up-move which will give us tremendous buying opportunities!

The Daily Dow Chart (See 1-year Daily Chart Link) is now reflecting a Buying Position in stocks short term.... Watch this graph carefully - if we continue to trade above the Main Trendline... the "Buying Position" in equities is going to stand.

To all new folks just recently joined us, I said prior 10,725-10,750 is a critical point, - I will explain: Based on a starting point the 1987 low of 1706.9 as a long term support level in the DJIA - we had a move all the way up to 9,400 before the next major correction - 2,000 points down to 7,400, i.e. 25% retracement. If we apply (as looking the 6 months Daily Graph) 25% retracement to the Top of 11,200-11,250, it gives us exactly 10,725 - the Critical Point! If we move below that point, we still can be exposed to a further downside movement, down to 10,200-10,250...On the other hand 10,250 is our major 50% retracement point (See the Daily Chart) - Since the last consolidation at 9,300 we had a move up to 11,200 (i.e. 1,900 point spread), and since we know 11,200 is the Recent Top, we can easily calculate our retracement levels (38%, 50%, 62%, See the Daily Chart). If we stay above 10,725-10,750 (50% Down Retracement) we will have our downside troubles resolved for while...

The market will wait for the general economic data (the second-quarter Employment Cost Index and a possible increase in wages later) to decide its next major move…No TA or other (prior mentioned above) indicators will factor the next major move!

Good Luck to you!

The Daily Report is contributed by Milo Y. Georgieff, MSCE Degree, Editor of ALFA Mdg Corp., Milo Y. Georgieff is a General Securities Representative, and an Investment Advisor registered with NASD. He is NALU member and is providing an audio commentary in Equity Trading, Technical Analysis and Investing for Atlantic Broadcasting System-Radio, New York.

Trading in securities is a high risk venture which could result in a loss and should not be undertaken without serious independent study. Neither Alfamdgcorp. nor its employees or affiliates, recommends any security for purchase or sale, nor do they recommend any specific approach to investing in securities. Prior performance is not a guarantee for future result

For information on obtaining/subscribing to "The Trading Day Tomorrow" Monthly Newsletter via e-mail, contact ALFA Mdg Corp. at:

Any comments?.....Jen

-- posted by JenL_3

Top 233. Jul 25, 1999 9:53 AM

» JenL_3 - Any Questions or Comments?

Folks - I e-mailed links to Suite 101 and an invitation to Milo Georgieff, the editor of the above TA newsletter. Please post any questions or comments for Milo Georgieff here, and hopefully he will reply. I really like the excellent TA chart links in the last two newsletters.....Jen

-- posted by JenL_3

http://members.spree.com/sip/alfamdgcorp...

Top 234. Aug 9, 1999 7:20 AM

» JenL_3 - Some Market TA from Alpha

The free e-mail newsletter The DJIA Tomorrow from alpha is now available in HTML format, so I will just post the link:

Normally when posting the alpha Market TA I delete all reference to individual stocks and the for-fee newsletter, but you can sift through it yourself. The graphs are good. Looks like they gave a sell signal on SPY on Friday in their for-fee newsletter.

Having been gone all week, I haven't caught up yet on what the market is doing, but I haven't sold my S&P500 index fund, and don't intend on doing so during a correction.

Any comments on the Alpha newsletter?......Jen

-- posted by JenL_3

Top 235. Aug 15, 1999 8:48 AM

» KirkL - Bear Trend Predominating...???

To: +Anthony@Pacific (42278 ) From: +Stcgg
Wednesday, Aug 11 1999 7:23PM ET

Tomorrow Excellent Opportunity to Position Next Shorts..
http://www.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investo...

To: +BRANDYBGOOD (88808 ) From: +Stcgg Wednesday, Aug 11 1999 7:20PM ET

Bear Trend Predominating..

Today was a bounce from extreme oversold conditions after Wave 5 down leg completed.. Look for Dow resistance 10818-10832 then another leg down towards support at 10409-10471 prior to next oversold bounce, on it's way to Dow 9780 by the end of August..

This wave pattern suggests more than just a correction in the market.. The PCI Index registered a Crash Alert on 08/03/99.. Link:
http://wwfn.com/commentary/pcisignals.ht...

To: +Stcgg (42280 ) From: +Anthony@Pacific
Wednesday, Aug 11 1999 9:50PM ET

Yes Making wise trades is key as long traders and day traders are about to give up everything they might have ever made and then some

-- posted by KirkL