Technical Analysis and Charting

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Top 217. Jul 13, 1999 7:34 AM

» JenL_3 - Some TA on Today's Market

This from the e-mail newsletter from alpha:

The Daily Dow Chart (See 1-year Daily Chart) is still reflecting a Buying position in stocks long term:

But, let's look at the 60min. Chart (10-day Chart!) for the moment - the bottom Trendline of the Uptrend Channel that crosses 11,100 (i.e. our new Support established!) was broken two days ago! But, the Dow is "pushing away" from the Bearish pattern short term (an Inverse Saucer) as confirming a Consolidation between 11,100 and 11,200!

As I said on Friday, A breakout over 11,200 in strong volume this week will be very Bullish, and if this happens we most likely will move higher (very quickly), i.e. UP to 11,325 short term...

On Tuesday - if we Open above fair value (higher!) in a strong, positive note, we have a good chance to break the resistance near 11,200 area, and move higher with next Target 11,325 -- near term (but I think we most likely will continue Consolidation!)...

We did not do it today because everybody is waiting:

The Government reports Wednesday on June producer prices and retail sales, and Thursday on consumer prices. A pickup in inflation would push rates higher (not expected!)...

Good numbers will help the Dow to move higher immediately!

If we Open below fair value (lower!) watch for Consolidation to continue...

Even though, (I repeated constistenly), we are clearly in an overbought position Short term (the Technical Indicators show this), considering the expectations of great earnings, the positive breadth and the Rally on Friday, and the close above 11,200 today, (I think) the chances the Dow to retrace the 38% lower levels (i.e. all the way down to 10,750-10,800) is now just 25%...

I mentioned while ago that the Ultimate Top shall be near the 12,096 level, and I will stay with it for now...It will be interesting - Let's watch it!

Good Luck to you!

The Daily Report is contributed by Milo Y. Georgieff, editor of ALFA Mdg Corp. Milo Y. Georgieff is a General Securities Representative and an Investment Advisor registered with NASD. He is NALU member and is providing an audio commentary in Equity Trading nd Investing for Atlantic Broadcasting System, New York.

Here to illustrate is a….

DOW TA Chart on DecisionPoint.com

What do you think Dan or anyone?…….Jen

-- posted by JenL_3

Top 218. Jul 13, 1999 8:39 AM

» TONYBRIG - INTC

Looks like its getting close to a triple
top!
Wonder if Dan or others can analyze that for
us here?

VBOLHH

-- posted by TONYBRIG

Top 219. Jul 14, 1999 4:47 PM

» DanG_6 - INTC--Triple Top?

Tony, I looked, stared, and squinted at an Intel chart, but for the life of me couldn't see anything resembling a triple top. Or anything else, for that matter. Sorry. The only thing I could say about INTC is that it looks like it could be overbought right now. That in itself wouldn't cause me to do anything, however.
- Dan

-- posted by DanG_6

Top 220. Jul 14, 1999 8:06 PM

» TONYBRIG - Intc

Dan:
It looked to me according to a chart I saw that
it was approaching its high for the third time.
Maybe thats called a triple high or top or
maybe Im not squinting rite.

VBOLHH

-- posted by TONYBRIG

Top 221. Jul 14, 1999 9:26 PM

» KirkL - Intel

Intel
This chart to me just looks like it is in a trading range as it tries to figure out where earings will be. I am long INtel for A LONG time, but I think it will need to be successful in another market besides PCs to really move from here. $65 give or take $10 or so seems reasonable unless there is some new news to indicate higher earnings are on the horizon.

-- posted by KirkL

Top 222. Jul 14, 1999 9:50 PM

» DanG_6 - More INTC

Tony and Kirk, still don't see a triple top, but one thing that is of interest in Kirk's chart is that the 1999 decline came down to the old top made in 1997 (old tops are classic support areas) and then reversed. Good example of how to use support areas to pick a buy point if you want to take a position in a stock you are big on for fundamental reasons.
- Dan

-- posted by DanG_6

Top 223. Jul 14, 1999 10:35 PM

» JenL_3 - Old Tops = Classic Support Areas

Dan - Thanks for pointing that out. You said for the Intel chart the.....

1999 decline came down to the old top made in 1997 (old tops are classic support areas) and then reversed. Good example of how to use support areas to pick a buy point if you want to take a position in a stock you are big on for fundamental reasons.

Hmmmm - that seems simple enough. Let's see if it holds for some other stocks:

For Microsoft the most recent decline went down to the top early in '99 and then reversed:

MSFT Weekly Chart

For Starbucks the most recent 30% drop went down to the top set at the end of '98:

SBUX Weekly Chart

For Lam the recent dip went down to the top set in '98:

LRCX Weekly Chart

For AT&T, currently in a trading range, but the last dip to 53 corresponds to the previous high in '99:

T Weekly Chart

Dan - Thank you so much for adding to my investing arsenal. That's very useful indeed!.....Jen

-- posted by JenL_3

Top 224. Jul 15, 1999 5:23 AM

» TONYBRIG - I dont see it either

Must have been looking at a different chart.
Maybe approaching a double top?

VBOLHH

Will try to call and ask the Wizard what he
thinks of INTC'S CHART.

vbolhh

-- posted by TONYBRIG

Top 225. Jul 15, 1999 7:35 AM

» DanG_6 - Just a caution, Jen

Jen, just be careful not to read too much into those charts. For instance, a "top" should be a well defined top followed by a reasonable decline, not just the high of the previous year (ex: AT&T--the top of significance was in the mid-40's and it really didn't reach that support area in '99. Support points don't necessarily "attract" a falling price, but will many times (and again, not always) STOP a decline. Declines sure don't HAVE to go all the way to previous support areas. But if they do, that could be a pretty good time to get in if you really like the stock for reasons other than just a "pretty chart".
- Dan

-- posted by DanG_6