Technical Analysis and Charting

Top 207. Jun 30, 1999 10:06 PM

» DanG_6 - Breakout!

The Dow broke out of its rectangle trading range today with a vengeance. And to Rande's delight, I'm sure, did so with the authority of high volume. Who would have thought that an interest rate hike, however much anticipated, would cause such a bullish reaction! Of course it was the neutral bias that did it and caught everyone, including Bob Brinker, by surprise. Anyway, the chartist would look for a rise now to at least 11,400, but there could be a pullback to the 10,900 area first. (Actually there could be ANYTHING because this chart stuff is not science by a long shot, and I'm the first to admit it.) But a lower volume pullback starting at any time to the 10,900 breakout area would be a short term buying opportunity (if you didn't catch the breakout) in pure chartist parlance. Since the market is nearing overbought territory, the pullback scenario is a definite possibility. Of course we will all know in the fullness of time.
- Dan

-- posted by DanG_6

Top 208. Jun 30, 1999 10:25 PM

» JenL_3 - DOW TA Chart

Dan - To illustrate that nice "Breakout" here is a....

DJIA TA Chart

....Jen

-- posted by JenL_3

mailto:alfamdgcorp@earthlink.net

Top 209. Jul 1, 1999 7:23 AM

» JenL_3 - More TA on the DOW

More from the free TA Newsletter for 6/30 from alfa:

Watch the trading day tomorrow: If the Dow Opens higher(above fair value) we most likely will continue today's Rally UP to 11,100+ to re-test the highest points reached ever, and then watch the Index to reverse to retrace down levels 10,919 - 62% down retracement should be the lowest
level as reaching the Top!) after +155 points today...

If we Open lower (below fair value) we most likely will go straight down to re-test the above mentioned areas near 10,900 and start Consolidating there...

I personally think we are due for a little correction-pull back here to confirm my theory from last month, i.e. a Bullish Consolidation between 10,725 and 11,000 (to set the stage for new highs!)

On the other hand I still consider 10,250 as a major bottom of the Dow!

Good Luck to you!

Sincerely,
Milo Georgieff, MSCE, NALU Member

Some nice charts (MSWord doc files) are included with this newsletter, but they are very large files that clog-up the e-mail box......Jen

-- posted by JenL_3

Top 210. Jul 1, 1999 7:48 AM

» KirkL - Russell2000 Breakout?

Great chart Russell 2000

CNBC just reported that LRCX, another company with negative earnings...., was added to the Russell 2000. Of course, I have had high hopes for the earnings potential of this company which is reflected in its gain from $8 3/8ths to about $46 in the last 9 months.

-- posted by KirkL

Top 211. Jul 1, 1999 8:48 AM

» JenL_3 - Ascending Triangle

Kirk - Looks like the Russel 2000 chart is breaking out of an...

Ascending Triangle

....giving a Buy signal.

Decisionpoint.com is a cool site for learning a little TA.

Thanks.....Jen

-- posted by JenL_3

mailto:jwalker@lowrisk.com

Top 212. Jul 5, 1999 11:41 PM

» JenL_3 - Walker Market Letter

This from the 7/5 Walker Market Letter:

Last week was a very good one for the stock market. The market was up every day of the week, and the DJIA, SP500, and NASDAQ all set new all time records. For the week, the SP500 was up 5.8%, the DJIA was up 5.6%, and the NASDAQ was up 9.6%.

The charts are looking good, and it really looks like the stock market is breaking out of the trading range that it has been mired in since March. The NASDAQ, SP500, and DJIA are already at all time highs. Even the Russell 2000 looks like it is starting to perk up and possibly break out of its long standing trading range.

The market internals are looking pretty good right along with the price charts. Most of the indicators we follow have been putting in a pattern of higher peaks and higher valleys on their charts. This is very bullish and every bit as important as the breakouts on the price charts.

Interest rates have been the big concern for quite some time now. It looks like the rate on the 30 year T-bond *may* have put in a double top. If this double top holds, it would imply lower long term interest rates ahead. Which, of course, would be bullish for stocks.

So with a breakout on the charts, good looking market internals, and some possible relief from bonds, it looks like the bulls will continue their winning ways for a while longer. The market is very overbought right now, so some pullback or pause is expected in the next few days, but it should not amount to much. The bottom line is that the bulls are in charge on Wall Street right now.

On a big picture basis, there is one thing that we have our eyes on.

Long time readers know we are not much for looking in the crystal ball and making long term prognostications. However, we can't help but get this uneasy feeling when we compare this year's charts to the 1998 charts. The DJIA and SP500 charts look awfully similar to the way they looked at about this time last year. In 1998 the big cap indexes peaked in March and April and then traded sideways to down until the market bottomed in mid June. At those lows, the market was down about 8%. Then the market began a dramatic rally that saw the DJIA and SP500 blast off to new all time highs. That was followed by a top in late July and then a quick and brutal drop of almost 20%. This year the top was about four to six weeks later in the year, and the bottom was a couple of weeks later. But the pattern and magnitude of the sideways to down trading range looked very similar to last year. If the pattern continues to play out, and that is a *BIG* if, that would put a market top in the mid August time frame. Just something to keep your eye on...

Good luck,
Jeff

Copyright (c) 1999 by Jeff Walker, Lakewood, CO
Disclaimer:
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical research and data believed reliable, but there is no guarantee that future results will be profitable.

InvestorMap.com- THE investing directory http://investormap.com

Lowrisk.com- making sense of the market http://www.lowrisk.com

Any comments on the Walker Market Letter assessment of The Market? Sounds pretty Bullish, except for the possibility of a replay of last year's correction.

......Jen <img src=" http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Dist...">

-- posted by JenL_3

Top 213. Jul 6, 1999 4:58 AM

» TONYBRIG - Ill bet he never issues a sell

BB's track record doesnt look too good as far
as Market Timing (imho)
Why would he risk a sell alert?
He likes to HEDGE!

VBOLHH

-- posted by TONYBRIG

Top 214. Jul 6, 1999 8:36 PM

» Arcane - Stock Analysis

Ran across a stock analysis web site called VectorVest. Would be interested if anyone knows anything about it.

The url is www.vectorvest.com.

Thanks

-- posted by Arcane

Top 215. Jul 9, 1999 10:24 AM

» DanG_6 - Vectorvest

The freebie site is ok, though who knows whether the valuation they put on stocks is really meaningful. I subscribed to the Vectorvest advisory service for awhile on a trial basis. They rank stocks using many different technical and fundamental criteria. I found it very complex and, since it eats disk space like there is no tomorrow, be prepared to devote a couple hundred megabytes or more to store the stock data. The guy that runs it seems to be very knowledgeable on the market and has impeccable credentials, including a PhD. Though it might work, I didn't feel like doing the lengthy downloads every night, then waiting for the data to be sorted before it was displayed. Very sophisticated service, but not worth it for my money.
- Dan

-- posted by DanG_6