Technical Analysis and Charting
- Hugs
- KirkL
- TONYBRIG
- KirkL
- Hugs
- TONYBRIG
- TONYBRIG
- JenL_3
- TONYBRIG
- KirkL
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» Hugs - new methods of TA
As long as we're going to try new methods, how about this idea:New IPO's are likely to track similar IPO's that have recently been introduced.
First up for close examination will be VerticalNet (VERT), iVillage (IVIL), and MiningCo (MINE).
VERT ipo'd at $ 16, IVIL at $ 24, and MINE at $25. VERT has hit a high of 120 and last traded at 102. IVIL (which ipo'd shortly after VERT) hit a high of 109 and last traded at 99.
Using these as high and low guideline, they would seem to indicate that MINE should reach somewhere between 88 and 162. Perhaps the ipo price of VERT was too low (being the first) and the ipo price of IVIL was too high (being the second, and given the sharp decline initially from it's opening price). This is, of course, assuning similar interest in the issues. Apparantly, a few others have already figured this method out. Talk about a tape http://www.bigcharts.com/intchart/frames... (sorry, I'll learn how to do one of these links, one of these days, not enough time to do it right now) that "won't let you in." It looks like it could gallop up to 125-130 before it even thinks about taking a breather.
How do you estimate how many are "waiting for a pullback" to get in? Six out of six up days, not counting day one (in glorious hindsight, seems that was the "day" to jump on.) Who can blame any current shareholders for being so reluctant to "take profits" on this one? Looks like another easy 30 points, according to this theory.
Any comments?
Hu
-- posted by Hugs
» KirkL - Hmmm...
Anyway, here is a better Chart for MINE...re "90 is 100" TA....
Easy matter to get old stock records on CD and do this. This is the sort of research Dreman and others do to find their strategies and write books.
-- posted by KirkL
» KirkL - Tony
If the "90 to 100" strategy works when applied backwards in history, then you take advantage of it yourself and not tell anyone the first few yrs. Then you publish a book and collect royalties just as you open your own mutual fund to collect 1.5% management fees for $100M or so investors give you, then the strategy becomes part of EMT (i.e. it regresses to the mean) and the investors complain about your high fees for something that NOW underperforms the S&P500 and you drive your Ferrari off into the sunset.Happens all the time.
-- posted by KirkL
» Hugs - MINE volume
How can you evaluate the volume very easily on it?After all, it is still turning 1/3 of the total float. There's a problem in having few clues as to what portion of it is daytraders vs. investors. Next week should certainly give a better look at what's happening.
Roll the dice, I guess.
Hu
-- posted by Hugs
» JenL_3 - MINE Volume
Interesting conversation above:Looking at the MINE chart
Hugs says "It looks like it could gallop up to 125-130 before it even thinks about taking a breather."
Tony says "I dont like the looks of that chart volume wise"
Hugs says "How can you evaluate the volume....?
Roll the <img src="http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Dist..."> I guess."
Tony says "Doesnt mean a stock cant be volatile with small volume. It could blow up-side too. .........More often then not volume precedes price movement. Thats my observation anyway."
Thanks Guys - am learning so much from these discussions..........Jen
-- posted by JenL_3
» TONYBRIG - New system
OK so now that I have that system in mind the famous 90-100.How do I find them? Do I have to manually check the exchanges or
maybe Kirk will do it for us?
. Isnt there away to turn thisso it really looks like a smile?
Seriously Kirk got a link for this?
Probably better that I let this system out then others will pile on
it and push the stocks up.
Got another one based on (of all things) an Analysts picks.
Will try Alger's that he selected in Barrons on Sat 3/27th.
Have to take of course Mondays price of 4/5th hows that?
I dont like to buy a stock rite after the News comes out for
the obvious reason so if the selections are any good they should still
show a profit. Now i'll go one step further and take the high
of Monday 4/5th. Here again I believe if the stocks are any good
(long-term) it dont matter timing aint impt but time in the stock is.
Thats what I believe (long-term) To me 6 months is long-term enough.
So I'll use that. Lets buy 100 shares (theoretically of the followng:
Also I want to study the option market on these and will actually
consider buying (with real $ some calls (if they have options) on
all of them and go out say 3 months ea. Give em enough time to
bite (if you will)
No analysis of the stocks or the sector they are in and no concern
for where the prices have been. If the picks are any good and I'm
any good in buying the option calls then it should show a nice profit.
Yes analysis of the options prices tho since Ill be spending real
$ and may not buy all of them. I believe one has to be sharper
in the option market cause of the risk in losing it all (premium)
Will let you know further what I saw in the option market.
No analysis though thats already been done by Alger.
He did the analysis for me. Since he has good stats as reported by
Barrons and I trust them and have heard good about him I will test it.
**If you know otherwise then let me know b4 I buy options on Wednesday.
I mean if there is any bad news on him or Barrons.
But my point is that with the proper stock picks one should be
able to show a nice profit within 6 months; just buying a small
basket of stocks from a GOOD picker. Gonna put a stop loss on
each of the stocks of 15% but no up-side limit. Will make it easy
sell the last market day of Sept. Settle day.
Now if I can put the following Rider on it. If we crash (the market)
say it tanks 20@ or more anywhere within 6 months then BETS ARE OFF.
I mean for the 6 months time period in that case we will hold
on for 1 yr. That is if any stocks left in the basket. They may all
have to be sold if we go into a BEAR market. Then you can pick
on me but I dont think we are that close to a BEAR market.
See what I mean? I believe one doesnt necessarily have to do his/her
own STOCK PICKING. Can use others to do that for you! This will
leave one free to look-in on his portfolio without having the
burdensome task of picking em. If that suits one!
Or to play TENNIS or to watch HORSE-RACING or GIRL-WATCHING or
whatever one wants to do.
Doesnt take a genius to make $ this way. I dont usually do this
just trying to evolve a workable system. Dont want to make it
to complicated by using analysis of the STOCK or when to get out
just buy it and hold it for 6 months.
Here are the symbols (dont want to cloud my mind with Co. names)
ATHM IVIL BCST MDT BSX AHP- 6 stocks enough for a basket.
They may be up some already but I dont care for the purpose of the
system.
Should work out if even in a neutral market and do HANDSOMELY
in a BULL MARKET.
Would like to hear others ideas on systems that do not involve
research on individual stocks but other factors.
Sounds interesting?
VBOLHH= Very best of Luck Health Happiness!
-- posted by TONYBRIG
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