The Bear Cafe - A Gathering Place for Bears - Others Welcome

Top 2. Dec 12, 1998 1:08 AM

» JenL_3 - "Ohio State Buckeye Party Favor Bear" - Jerry Favors

This Jay Scott weekly Jerry Favors report copied over from BB Discussion site:

From: Jay Scott Msg #: 5674 12-11-1998

Jerry Favors has undergone a miraculous conversion! Perhaps due to the celestial intervention that silenced his satellite transmission two weeks ago, our favor-ite superbear has become a superbull! His Etch a Sketch charts show we have hit bottom on the current pullback (unless, he says, we go lower in the next few days), but then we will rally til Dec. 22. After a short decline to New Year's, fasten your seatbelts for we then will rocket to are you ready for this...Dow 11,000 by April...if it stays a bull market, that is. However since even miracles are not permanent, we will then have that giant bear market he has long forecast. Asked by Ron Insana if he clearly understood that Jerry was predicting a full 25% rise in the currently doggy Dow by April, Jerry flashed a schoolkid smile and said. well...uh...I'm sticking to that... for now.

Which is why we love when Jerry Favors us every Friday afternoon.

Jay

-- posted by JenL_3

Top 3. Dec 12, 1998 10:27 AM

» JenL_3 - Ohio State Party Favors Bear

Shep - Thanks for your "Lady Elaine" update, and glad to see you back at Suite 101.

This description of the "Ohio State Party Favors Bear" comes from Jay (copied from the BB site (Msg #5711) 12/12/98):

J. Lynn, Jerry Favors is the editor of the Jerry Favors Analysis newsletter out of Columbus, OH. He gets special prominence in that he has a regular spot on CNBC at 3:40 PM Fridays, thus giving him the last word on the market each week.

Jerry's what I'd call an extreme chartist, insisting that his complex and obscure charts not only give market direction and range, but also exact timing, to the day. For example, he'll say the market will rise to 9200 for three days, then fall for 6 days, etc. All well and good, except that Jerry also qualifies almost every opinion..."give or take a few days", or "the market will go up, unless it goes down". Or my favorite: "This is what will happen, unless I'm wrong."

I sometimes get the feeling Jerry speaks to the camera the same way pro wrestlers do, for outrageous effect. Maybe he should be on the WWF Channel. Until recently he was Jerry the Etch a Sketch bear (both Jerry and the graphics toy are Ohio products) predicting a monster bear market no matter how high the market rose, and insisting he would buy no stock except gold mining companies til it happened, but now he's an extreme bull, predicting a Dow rise to 11,000 by April....maybe.

BB added him to the Bad News Bears list a couple of weeks ago, labeling him the Ohio State Party Favors Bear.

All of which earns him a spot in the Bear Hall of Fame...at 3:40 PM Fridays...give or take a few days.

Jay

P.S.
Thanks, Gene for preparing a Jerry report. My backup Mac has minimal capability (can post here, but not Suite 101) but don't let me stop you from posting your own Favor-ite bear report.

Anymore Bear descriptions, updates, comments out there? Post 'em here.....J.L.

-- posted by JenL_3

Top 4. Dec 12, 1998 10:37 AM

» Holden - The Good News Bears

The Jellystone Bears

-- posted by Holden

Top 5. Dec 12, 1998 10:38 AM

» KwL - Bear Roll Call Only

Lets try to keep this thread just for listing the bears.

Shep, I moved our post on Elaine to here into the guru discussion.

Maybe because she is now a bull, or maybe because I thought it was really good information that should be there. Hope that is OK. Interesting how she seems to be back on top of her Market timing.

Anyway, we'll keep her on the list so we know what the name means, but note that she is now a bear!

THE BB BEAR ROLL CALL

"Georgia Peach Bear" - Bob Prechter

"Great Montana Grizzly Bear" - James Stack

"Her Ladyship" or "Lady Elaine" - Elaine Garzarelli (Now a bull)

"Kansas City Joe" - Joe Granville

"Michael the Great Bear" - Michael Metz

"Mr. Bowtie" - Jimmy Rogers

"Ohio State Buckeye Party Favor Bear" - Jerry Favors (Jay calls
him the "Magic Marker Bear" or the "Etch a Sketch Bear")

"Ralph Flip-Flop" or "Ralph Inagain Outagain Finnegan" - Ralph
Acampora

"Wall Street Honey Bear" - Gail Dudack

HONORARY BEARS (from Jay Scott, and others)

"General Longhair" or "The Clairol Bear" - Bill Fleckenstein

"Mr. & Mrs. Donut - Tom & Daria Dolan

"Mr. Dow 4000" - David Tice

-- posted by KwL

Top 6. Dec 12, 1998 9:39 PM

» JenL_3 - Bad News Bears Updates

Kirk - OK for moving the "Lady Elaine" post, because now she is really a bull. But we do want updates on the prognostications of the various Bad News Bears posted on this thread. I've asked Jay to post his weekly Jerry Favors updates here. Otherwise how can we keep track of all the comings and goings of the bears - they seem to change their stripes so often.....J.L.

-- posted by JenL_3

Top 7. Dec 12, 1998 9:50 PM

» JenL_3 - Updated Bear Roll Call

Just making a few corrections, additions of nick names, etc.:

THE BB BEAR ROLL CALL

"Georgia Peach Bear" - Bob Prechter

"Great Montana Grizzly Bear" - James Stack

"Her Ladyship" or "Lady Elaine" - Elaine Garzarelli (Now a bull)

"Kansas City Joe" - Joe Granville

"Michael the Great Bear" - Michael Metz

"Mr. Bowtie" - Jimmy Rogers

"Ohio State Buckeye Party Favor Bear" or "Ohio State Party Favors Bear" - Jerry Favors (Jay calls
him the "Magic Marker Bear" or the "Etch a Sketch Bear")

"Ralph Flip-Flop" or "Ralph Inagain Outagain Finnegan" - Ralph
Acampora

"Wall Street Honey Bear" - Gail Dudack

HONORARY BEARS (from Jay Scott, and others)

"General Longhair", "The Clairol Bear", "Farrah Fawcett Bear", or "General Custer Bear" - Bill Fleckenstein

"Mr. & Mrs. Donut - Ken & Daria Dolan

"Mr. Dow 4000" - David Tice

Anyone feel free to make corrections or additions...J.L.

-- posted by JenL_3

Top 8. Dec 12, 1998 10:17 PM

» JenL_3 - "Ohio State Party Favors Bear"

The "Ohio State Buckeye Party Favor Bear" or the "Ohio State Party Favors Bear"; or by other names: "Magic Marker Bear" or "Etch a Sketch Bear" is Chartist Jerry Favors out of Columbus Ohio who appears on Friday at 3:40 on CNBC. (Read more about Mr. Favors in Jay's description posted above.):

J.L.

-- posted by JenL_3

Top 9. Dec 12, 1998 10:40 PM

» JenL_3 - "Ralph Inagain Outagain Finnegan"

An Introduction to "Ralph Flip-Flop" received in an e-mail from Jay Scott Dec. 12 6:35 PM:

-------------------------------------------------

Ralph Inagain Outagain Finnegan, (AKA King Ralph,) is Ralph Acompora, Chief Technical Analyst of Prudential Securities. Ralph is best known for keeping his predictions flexible...to a fault. Usually a bull, he predicted one day last summer the Dow would rise to 10,000, then changed his coat from leather to fur literally overnight. Within 24 hours, he predicted a fall to 6500. Those following his advice are probably still waiting for that fall to 6500 (it got no lower than 7500), and likely missed the snapback to 9400.

Ralph has now adopted a well proven Wall Street strategy, hedging his bet. He predicts the Dow in 1999 will range from 8500 to 11,000. Presumably, with 2,500 points of running room, this morphable creature can sniff out a trail that's right.

Jay

------------------------------------------------

Round and round he goes, and where he stops nobody knows:

J.L.

-- posted by JenL_3

Top 10. Dec 12, 1998 11:53 PM

» KwL - King Ralph Likes Bananas

From: +MrGreenJeans on SI

It was a BANANA

Prudential's Acampora Says Dow Will Be 'Erratic' in 1999

New York, Dec. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Ralph Acampora, Prudential Securities Inc.'s director of technical research, said he expects U.S. stocks to be ''erratic'' in 1999, although the bear market of July to October shouldn't repeat itself next year. ''I honestly believe the worst is behind us,'' Acampora said during his presentation of Prudential's technical outlook and projections for 1999. ''We got very close to a major problem, and I hope it sobered us up.''

Acampora said the market's decline in 1998 was in line with ''major market bottoms'' that usually occur every four years, and it sets the stage for a renewed bull market next year. He also expects continued volatility because of persisting economic woes in Asia and Brazil. ''We're not an island,'' he said. The market ''came apart because we have problems outside our borders and we came close to a global meltdown.''

Earlier this week Acampora said the Dow should trade between a low range of 7800 to 8450 and a high range of 9800 to 11,500 in 1999. He estimated the Standard & Poor's 500 Index will trade between a low of 1050 to 1090 and a high of 1350 to 1525.

Acampora said the recent rally from a bear market resembled a ''banana,'' with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P Composite Index reaching record levels in November after bottoming out in October, though he noted 71 percent of S&P industry groups are still well below their record highs. ''No one should be surprised with a little weakness'' between now and the end of the year, Acampora said in an interview earlier today. He said the Dow's nearly 2000-point rise from Oct. 8 to early November ''overdid it a little bit.''

Acampora's Picks

Acampora said he particularly likes telecommunications companies, including Sprint Corp. and MCI WorldCom Inc., tobacco stocks, such as Philip Morris Cos., and large computer stocks such as Microsoft Corp. and Dell Computer Corp.

He proclaimed 1999 ''the year of the stock picker'' and urged investors to spend more time selecting individual stocks and pay more attention to mid-size and small stocks.

He favors mid-size companies, including retailer AnnTaylor Stores Corp. and publisher Scholastic Corp., and small capitalization stocks, such as C-Cube Microsystems Inc., a provider of digital video technology.

The Dow fell 19.82 to 8821.76. The S&P 500 rose 1.44 to 1166.46.

-- posted by KwL