Gold, Silver and Other PMs

Top 61. Jul 12, 2000 5:57 PM

» Happy - I got a statement from my gold fund today

To show you just how bad gold funds have really done since 1985, note the following":

In 1985, because I wanted their literature, I put $500 into the United Services Gold fund. For 15 years I have reinvested all dividends, and made no withdrawals.

The value today is $50.60.

Now that's a BEAR market.

-- posted by Happy

Top 62. Jul 12, 2000 6:10 PM

» Kirk - Gold Plated books?

Was the literature worth it?

-- posted by Kirk

Top 63. Jul 12, 2000 6:27 PM

» Happy - As it turns out, the literature was not worth it.

As it turns out, the literature was not worth it.

-- posted by Happy

Top 64. Jul 12, 2000 7:29 PM

» Rande - POG nearing the 270s.

POG nearing the 270s. Deflationary.

-- posted by Rande

Top 65. Jul 13, 2000 12:41 AM

» JenL_2 - Fred.....

..You said on another thread that you had between 2-3% of your portfolio or the equity portion of your portfolio in Gold and other precious metals. What is your rational behind that allocation, and would you recommend it to others?

BTW - Congratulations on graduating "Clickable Links" school!......Jen

-- posted by JenL_2

Top 66. Jul 13, 2000 6:30 AM

» FCSTECKIII - Jen

Appreciate your questions. Actually, my weighting
in PM's is currently around 2.5% broken down into
70% Silver Bullion (100oz Englehard Bars) and the
remainder in Gold Mining stocks. There's a chance
that I 'may' add some Gold Bullion (Maple Leaf's)
in the very near future ...

I plan on handing my Silver Bullion (and possibly
any Gold Bullion) down to my children (talk about
long-term) ...

The Gold Mining stocks are used for 'short-term'
plays and are not intended for buy and hold ...

Clearly Jen, this is one sector that most people
should avoid, however, I would like to point out
some 'interesting' items ...

Currently, Warren Buffet has accumulated nearly
144-Million Ounces or roughly 25% of all 'above
ground' silver. His average price per ounce is
approximately $4.75. One has to wonder why the
greatest Value Investor of all-time took such a
huge position in the semi-precious metal ...

One can make some very impressive gains in Gold
Mining stocks as was the case last year during
SEP/OCT period and JAN/FEB period of this year.

Since Gold is still in a Secular Bear, you need
to be IN and OUT very quickly. Most of this hot
'action' is caused by short selling more than a
change in sentiment ...

The divergence between Gold/Silver and the S&P
500 is now at an all-time high. I myself have
never witnessed anything like it. Yes, it can
widen further, but not forever (IMHO) ...

XAU to S&P 500 Divergence Chart:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5Exau&d=my...

One final note. I do not recommend people buying
Gold coins with numismatic value if all they're
looking for is bullion value. The premiums are
just not worth it. -Thanks Jen

-- posted by FCSTECKIII

Top 67. Jul 13, 2000 6:33 AM

» Whirlwind - gold

Is not a very good metal to speculate on. The best one could hope for is a double from current levels. The stock market gives you that every eight years. Silver is a better bet. Once it's used it's gone. Some amount of recycling done, but the shortfall between supply and demand is there every year. I do believe a spike to $20 to $25 is possible. You can accumulate silver coin on E-bay at melt, even after shipping costs if you are patient. Must know silver content of your coins.

-- posted by Whirlwind

Top 68. Jul 13, 2000 10:06 AM

» Kirk - FCS

FCS

Could Mr Buffett join the ranks of the Hunts? The problem with value, is often others don't see how "smart" you are.

Alan. I used to save silver coins when I worked in 1974 and 1975 to earn money for college. what is the silver content of a Quarter or Dime worth these days? I still have them somewhere.... My Dad and his aunt (a hair dresser in SF until she retired in the late 1960's) used to save these too.

I bet I wasted my time and would have done better to buy a share of GE stock! 8)

-- posted by Kirk

Top 69. Jul 13, 2000 10:15 AM

» FCSTECKIII - Kirk

Your silver coins (aside from numismatic value)
are worth less today than they were in 1974 ...

The 'trick' was to unload them in 1979-1980 when
everyone thought that inflation would go to 20%.

No doubt, PM's have been lousy investments over
the last 18-years. I only hope that my kids can
say "Hey, I remember when my dad paid only $500
for this Englehard Bar in 1999... Now its worth
$501 (LOL)

I can honestly say that if Coin Collecting gets
hot again, some of the more Common Silver pieces
may be worth a premium since many of these ended
up in the smelters when silver peaked in 1980...

-Thanks

-- posted by FCSTECKIII