Gold, Silver and Other PMs

» Bill_Duffy - From BCA: Upside for Gold?

Gold prices have rebounded above $400, aided by increased geopolitical tensions and a weak dollar.

The former could heat up heading into the U.S. Presidential election. The dollar is also likely to stay soft because the Fed is not going to lift interest rates any faster than what is already discounted in the futures market, which is supportive for gold. Rate expectations are likely to ratchet higher next year, assuming economic growth stays solid and inflation fears perk up. While the latter typically are bullish for gold, the problem is that bond yields and short rates ultimately will rise enough to prevent a serious inflation cycle. Gold benefited during the hyper-reflationary period and the shift to more restrictive conditions next year will be negative for gold. Bottom line: the cyclical gold rally is in its late stages.

-- posted by Bill_Duffy

» Kirk - Re: From BCA: Upside for Gold?

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-- posted by Kirk

» Normxxx - SKI Gold Stock Prediction

By Jeffrey M. Kern | for Monday August 9th, 2004
Email: skigoldstocks@yahoo.com
USERX (closed Friday at 6.53, up .19)

I'll be surprised and scared if (USERX)prices ever go over 6.62

Last Monday's confidently bearish SKI Update for the gold stocks was followed by a tiny up day on Tuesday (shorting time) followed by 2 hard down days on Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday, the gold stocks surprisingly surged up 3%, with USERX climbing back to 6.52, but staying below the week's highs. I remain bearish on everything, but last week's price movements were interesting and important.

Last Monday's Update emphasized the importance of USERX (the gold mutual fund) 6.61, but said we could go higher, especially on Tuesday to hit prices at 6.61. Of great importance was the fact that the 1-penny rise on Tuesday ALMOST generated a new LT index buy signal. That would have turned me very bullish. A ST index buy or a LT index buy are the stops and reverses on this short position. Although few readers actually calculate the indices, if you'd done the work on the LT index you'd have seen that the rise over 6.61 generated an exact ZERO on the index. Remember that a change in sign is required to generate a signal, so although the index came AS CLOSE AS IT CAN COME to giving the signal, it didn't do it. If it had risen on Wednesday, it would have done it, but as expected, it failed. The LT signal change prices now rise to 7.00 and then fall back to 6.42 in 2 weeks. That is the new resistance line. Prices can now rise to 7.00 without giving a signal, but then have to fall back to avoid a signal. I have no reason to expect a rise to 7.00, I'm just saying that it won't stop out the shorting trade. Frankly, it's very hard for me to find an index pattern that can change the bearishness for the next month(s).

The action on the LT was classically bearish, testing the resistance at a prior trough, coming as close as possible to breaking out to the upside, then failing, and then (on Friday) flying back up to fall short again. I'll be surprised and scared if prices ever go over 6.62. A lot of the gold stocks and indices have clearly been holding above their 5/10/04 lows, but the pattern in USERX and my indices is distinctly very bearish.

Stock market:
Last Tuesday, after turning on the TV for the first time in 2 weeks, the financial news immediately told me that the stock market (in general) had closed higher for 5 consecutive days into Monday's close. Tuesday's fall locked in that weak five-up run pattern. Long-time readers know that I rarely comment on anything except gold stocks because I only have one valid predictor for stocks-in-general: 5 Up or 5 Down, exactly, across all broad indices of the market (i.e., not the DOW). Everything was 5 UP. If I had seen that on Monday, I'd have written that a down day on Tuesday should yield a large stock market decline. I shorted the stocks (QQQ) therefore on Wednesday (for the "fun" of it, on principle, with the little money that I had left over from shorting the gold stocks). Remember the last time that I commented on the stock market? Five Up in mid-January 2004. I expect a continuing stock market decline and a massive decline could be here. The prior five-down buy signal was at the end of September 2001 (exact low), the prior sell was 9/1/00 (at an exact high) on a massive 5 Up run. The earlier signals were a buy in October 1989 and October 1987 (exact lows) and the prior sell was the day of the top in 1987! Watch out below, right now, starting from last Monday? Five Up signals are rare and important.

We can guess that perhaps a general stock market decline (now) will be what pulls the gold stocks lower, but I don't know. I just remain bearish on everything due to the SKI (Gold) indices' triple sell pattern in mid-April and the dismal action relative to my indices over the past month. If you regularly read my Updates, you know that most of the time I hedge my predictions. You should be able to tell when I'm "big-headed and confident," as per the Triple Buy, the Triple Sell, and last Monday. I am (actually the indices are) rarely wrong when the patterns are so clear. And when I re-read that last sentence, my contrarian nature makes me cringe that I [could be] all wrong right here (I just can't believe it's all so obvious). We'll see, but I don't think that I'm going to get any more SKI signals for months as the gold stocks simply decline.

The contents of this letter/report does not necessarily reflect the opinions or viewpoint of normxxx. They are provided for informational/educational purposes only.

The content of this message is not to be construed as constituting market or investment advice. It is intended for educational purposes only. Individuals should consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.

-- posted by Normxxx

» Kirk - Re: SKI Gold Stock Prediction

I'll be surprised and scared if (USERX)prices ever go over 6.62

<img src=http://cbs.marketwatch.com/charts/int-ad... width=452 height=366>

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PERIOD Returns     Kirk’s  W5000  S&P 500     Nasdaq  
                    NL     VTSMX   VFINX   ^IXIC   QQQ
1 Year to 6/30/04   36%     21%     17%     26%    26%
3 Year to 6/30/04   25%      2%     (3%)   ( 5%)  (17%)
5 Year to 6/30/04   65%     (5%)   (11%)   (24%)  (34%) 
 Total Return: 
                      Kirk  Wil’   S&P    NASDAQ    
                            5000   500   Comp  QQQ 
5 Yrs 6/30/99–6/30/04  65%  (5%)  (11%) (23%) (35%)
Annualized Return      11%  (1%)  ( 2%) ( 5%) ( 8%)
 
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Suitable for the aggressive growth part of your
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-- posted by Kirk

» Normxxx - Future of the Gold price

-- posted by Normxxx

» Normxxx - Time To Start Nibbling?

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Gold is back above $400 (again). Last week, it seemed to stall (again). But look below the surface.

Peering closely, I see three factors at work:

First, India, the world's biggest gold importer, was unfalteringly a buyer right up to the high of $412 this past week. I gauge Indian off-take by looking at the local premiums. (Read related column.)

Previously, Indian buying has been choked off at these levels. And the busy season for gold purchases in India is only just beginning.

Inevitable outcome: A great deal of metal will go to live in India this fall -- unless world gold moves up sharply from the $400-plus level.

Second, the Middle East also appears to have become gold-hungry. It's more difficult to follow, but those local premiums I can access have started to suggest this.

So do recent reports of quantities traded. Turkey, for instance, imported a record weight of gold in July.

Conclusion: the physical demand for gold is ratcheting up to support the price.

Thirdly, and below the surface, the past two weeks have seen extraordinary increases in Comex (New York Commodities Exchange) open interest, which have accompanied gold price recent moves.

"Open Interest," is the total of futures contracts outstanding. An increase occurs when a buyer bids to acquire a contract -- a promise to deliver -- and is accommodated by a new seller. Or, when a short seller is accommodated by a new buyer.

Since Aug. 12, open interest has gone up 24.6 percent, 54,749 contracts, equivalent to 170 tonnes of net gold buying. This includes one day, Aug. 19, where the rise was apparently the second highest on record.

In other words, gold volume has been huge. It's just the price that has been boring.

The surge in open interest tells us good and bad news. Good: huge buyers have appeared. Bad: so has a huge seller(s).

Who are the buyers? The most popular theory among gold bears: a big mining house trying to eliminate a hedge position.

I think this is unlikely. No one producer is big enough.

My guess: Some U.S. hedge funds are buying gold because they think the geopolitical/economic is unstable. So are large operators from elsewhere, partly responding to the same anti-American sentiment which that is driving the retail Middle Eastern markets.

Next question: Who is the seller? After all, someone has to have taken the other side of the trades.

To me, it has to have been a central bank. There is simply no other long (or short) around with this kind of size, or courage.

There is increasing evidence that the gold market is being manages by the official sector. Imperative reading for serious gold followers is money manager John Embry's discussion of gold manipulation at Sprott.com.

Ultimately, central bank supplies will be exhausted. Revco Research, the adroit Chicago-based traders, bravely went long on Friday, reasoning that selling of this magnitude cannot persist.

Gold's price breakthrough will be fortune-making. In the meantime, a modest rise to a level which will temporarily slow physical buying is very likely.

If gold passes its $431 March high, it will be at a level not seen since the mid-1980s.

John Brimelow, based in New York, has been a precious metals analyst for more than 20 years. He also is the brother of CBS MarketWatch columnist Peter Brimelow.

The contents of this letter/report does not necessarily reflect the opinions or viewpoint of normxxx. They are provided for informational/educational purposes only.

The content of this message is not to be construed as constituting market or investment advice. It is intended for educational purposes only. Individuals should consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.

-- posted by Normxxx

» Normxxx - Is Gold Fated for an October Sell-Off?

By Dr Richard Appel | September 23, 2004

September 19, 2004 - The gold market appears to have past its low and has been consolidating in the $400 area. This has been accompanied by similar price action in the shares of the stocks that either mine or explore for it. From experience, as long-term followers of the yellow metal recognize, we have entered what has been historically the annual best few months for gold. Thus, if history is a guide the odds highly favor an advance from current levels. So why am I concerned?

A major confluence of events has occurred that is extremely bullish for the gold universe. Some of these have been in place for a time but others have recently emerged. According to the World Gold Council's statistics, for over two decades mine production has seriously lagged that needed to satisfy gold's increasing demand, and the gap is widening. This has strained the available above ground scrap, investor dis-hoarding, and central bank sales that have heretofore made up for the shortfall. In fact, this year's anticipated gold mine production of 2,500-2,600 tonnes will be outstripped by over 3,300 tonnes of demand. Importantly, for the next few years at minimum this deficit is destined to worsen. This is due to the fact that gold production will decline faster than new mine output is expected to come on stream.

Further, if those at GATA (Gold Antitrust Action Committee; gata.org) are even reasonably close to being accurate in their assessment, the major central banks have little remaining gold with which they can, or will, willingly part; they are basically scraping the bottom of the proverbial barrel. Additionally, the major gold producers have become buyers of the metal in order to reduced or eliminated their earlier hedges. This in their haste to prevent additional losses generated by the rising gold market.

Addressing this issue, producer hedging poured an additional tens of millions of ounces of gold onto the market for over a decade and a half. Had this not occurred gold would not have fallen to the depths of its $252 nadir in August, 1999, and the noble metal would be trading at far higher than today's price. However, I remain confident that the reversal of this process will instead act to drive gold higher in price, as the major gold miners are forced to reduce their net supply to the market as they offset their hedges.

Recently, Argentina announced that they purchased 42 tonnes of gold during the first six months of this year. This may be a prelude to similar actions by other nations. Also, several months prior to the requisite time for their announcement, the 15 nations involved in the 1999 Washington Agreement stated that they would renew their accord. They agreed to restrict their combined annual sales to 500 tonnes over the next five years and would limit their gold leasing. Recent rumors have it that this number may not be reached.

Still another event that is beneficial for the gold price involves Switzerland. If you will recall, after the announcement of the 1999 Washington accord, that country began dis-hoarding 1200 tonnes from its long held and earlier coveted gold reserve. The Swiss carried out their plan at a rate of about 25 tonnes per month. They are now approaching their stated goal and will soon cease these sales. As with the actions of Switzerland, the above events will all exert a positive impact upon an already tight gold market.

Only last week, Russia's president Vladimir Putin appears to have given his citizenry a major reason to rush into gold. He recently abolished elections for governors, and eliminated local elections for individual members of parliament. This is tantamount to announcing his dictatorship and will threaten the great strides that his nation has achieved in their apparent fleeting quest for individual freedom. I believe that this event will frighten numerous Russians and will drive them into gold for what they will view as their financial survival.

In addition to the above items that will positively influence the gold market are the ballooning domestic money supply, the ongoing massive U.S. Federal deficits, as well as our unsustainable balance of payments deficits. The latter is highlighted by the horrendous second quarter $166.2 billion current account deficit. This is fast approaching 6% of GDP which history has proved to be unsustainable. Whenever a country neared that point its currency suffered a significant depreciation against those of other nations. It is likely that the U.S. will be capable of driving our deficit/GDP equation to a record high level. This is due to the dollar's world reserve currency status. However, at some point the first nation state will refuse to accept our dollar, and other countries will follow suit. It is only a matter of time.

The combination of the burgeoning money supply with the record fiscal and current account deficits will act to reduce the dollar's purchasing power as well as its desirability. This will ultimately translate into its worth declining domestically as well as on the world's currency exchanges. To my mind, the effect of an exploding money supply occurring simultaneously with both budget and current account deficits, adds up to the underpinnings capable of alone supporting a major secular gold Bull Market.

If I am correct, the gold Bull Market is destined to take the breath away from not only today's skeptics but also from most true gold believers. So why worry about the future, and especially the month of October, if everything now appears to be aligned on the side of a rising gold market?

All long-term and even recent first-time gold investors have already endured various "tests of fire". The longer that one has invested in gold the greater the number that had to be survived. We all suffer from deep and some from possibly irreversible scars. All of this is due to the repeated setbacks that periodically occurred within the 1970's Bull Market, through the Bear Market rallies from1980 through1999, as well as from those secondary price declines that we have sustained during the present Bull Market.

I want to stress this point so that you do not forget that all gold up-trends will be punctuated by declines, and some of these will be quite harrowing! This is the reason that patience and a long-term perspective must be stringently adhered to in order to profit, nay survive, while gold works its way to its peak over the next number of years.

Fast approaching October is the month that the International Monetary Fund has its annual meeting. If their upcoming affair is similar to a number that transpired during the1970's, we may have to live through yet another temporary set-back in the yellow metal's rise, despite its golden future.

THE 1970's REVISITED AND A POSSIBLE GLIMPSE INTO OUR FUTURE

The 1970's witnessed gold rise from $35 in 1971, to its $875 peak in early 1980. These overall exciting and profitable times were also accompanied by some frightening price declines that produced devastating paper and real losses. They accrued primarily to those investors who did not essentially buy and hold their gold investments through the Bull Market! It is true that there were a number of adept traders who greatly profited. A few even far outperformed those that maintained their gold and gold share positions throughout gold's great advance. However, the vast majority of traders who attempted to time the market were severely damaged when gold often reversed course. They were either left in the lurch when gold rose, or they sold out near an important bottom after gold had collapsed in price.

It would not surprise me if there was a major correction within the next year or two. This could take gold down 30%, 40%, or even 50% from its highs. Something similar to this occurred when gold touched $200 an ounce in December, 1974. It later posted a $103 low a year and a half later. I believe that it is prudent to sell a small portion of your holdings into all strong advances with the knowledge that a correction will eventually occur. In this fashion you will have some capital available with which to acquire the great bargains that will appear at the inevitable bottom. If I am correct and a substantial correction is fated to occur before gold's Bull Market finally crests, you will be happy that you did. Even if you ride out all of the set-backs, take heart! Remember, after striking $103, gold then resumed its Bull Market and peaked at $875. If an investor had held through that entire nearly 50% decline, he still could have quadrupled his money at gold's final top.

My concern about an October gold reaction revolves around at least three difficult periods that gold bugs encountered during the1970's gold Bull Market. These resulted from statements emanating from the annual Fall IMF meetings. In each instance, coinciding with the conclusion of these gatherings, were announcements that were extremely gold negative. They each generated short-lived but sharp sell-offs across the various gold markets. Given recent events, I have begun to wonder if we are again destined to endure another similar time.

Among the reasons that cause me to view the upcoming IMF meeting with a wary eye, is the early announcement of the continuance of the Washington Agreement. The March statement by the members of the accord was a full six months before it was due to expire. Given the fact that the premature extension dispelled a major concern overhanging the gold market, it acted to strengthen its price.

The timing of this announcement was quite startling to me after having observed the actions of the various central banks through their decades long battle against gold. I do not recall another event sponsored by them that was as positive for gold, save for the September, 1999 Washington Agreement. Further, there is increasing talk and speculation that the members to the accord may actually sell less than their stated 500 annual tonnes over its 5 year term. These two issues have lent great comfort to the minds of many gold investors and may act to lessen their concerns, causing them to be emboldened in their actions. Who knows, any comments emanating from the meeting that alter the market's current perception of the amount of gold that will reach the market, may damage it.

Finally, President Bush's intense desire for reelection needs little discussion. He is barely leading John Kerry in the polls, and must desperately maintain the status quo for a few more weeks to remain in the Oval Office. To this end, I believe that he will do whatever is in his power to maintain a stable stock market, a level economy, and prevent a rising gold price.

If common stocks move sharply lower it will not only harm American investors but may generate fear, in the minds of our voting public, of an impending economic decline. Or, a strongly advancing gold price prior to the November elections may upset the markets. If either of these events transpire, voters may perceive that President Bush has lost control of the economy, and may change their vote to Mr. Kerry.

While it is far from certain that the IMF meeting will end with gold damaging comments, I believe that it is prudent to maintain some cash on the sidelines. If my concern proves correct you will have the ability to benefit and not entirely suffer, both emotionally and from paper losses, from such an occurrence. In any event, this issue should be kept in mind during the balance of gold's Bull Market. It has worked in the past for the central bankers and will likely be utilized in the future.

When earlier IMF comments occurred that affected the gold price, the yellow metal was typically advancing in price. While gold is trending higher, as of today it does not appear to be a threat to the desires of the central banks or to the aspirations of President Bush. For this reason, we may be spared from a near-term attack. However, if gold soon strongly rises, negative comments will forestall its unfolding and may help solidify President Bush's hold on the presidency. Whatever transpires, I am confident that gold remains in a confirmed secular Bull Market. For this reason its long-term trend will remain up regardless of any temporary setback.

Europe's central banks ready to offload gold

Reuters/Bvom – 09/24/04 | Saturday, September 25, 2004

Europe's central banks are set to dispose of every ounce of gold they can under a new five-year sales pact, even though some of their plans have yet to be declared, analysts say.

The European Central Bank Gold Sales Agreement, which comes officially into being next week, raises the limit on gold sales by its 15 signatories over the next five years to 2,500 tonnes from 2,000 in 1999-2004 previously.

"We know that there's been quite a lot of comment saying that the quota won't be filled. We feel that it will be filled," Jessica Cross, chief executive of the Virtual Metals consultancy, said. "Why would they have increased the sales unless they were intending to fill them?" she added.

The new pact negotiated earlier this year replaces one struck in 1999 to help stabilise prices when gold was languishing below $300 because of the stronger attraction of other investments at the time. The new, higher limit on central bank sales was seen undermining gold's role as a financial instrument, but the price was currently buoyant above $400 an ounce, near 15-year peaks reached earlier this year on dollar weakness.

CONFUSION
Some 1,700 tonnes of the planned sales have come to light so far, but much confusion surrounds how and when some major sellers will act. Germany, the world's second biggest holder of gold with reserves in excess of 3,000 tonnes, has yet to say whether it will sell. The Bundesbank said earlier this year it had secured an option to sell 600 tonnes under the agreement, but its president Axel Weber said earlier this year it would leave a decision until September.

France, just behind Germany with bullion reserves of more than 3,000 tonnes, said it planned to sell some 500 to 600 tonnes, with proceeds to be invested in interest-bearing instruments. The profits from those investments would then be used for the state budget.

The German central bank had similarly proposed that its gold sales be put into an interest-bearing account. But Bank of France governor Christian Noyer was quoted as saying in July that the bank was not ready to sell some of its gold to finance outright the French national budget.

Another major potential seller, Italy, said last week it had no plans to sell its gold reserves.

HSBC metals analyst Alan Williamson said he doubted the full 2,500 tonnes of gold would be sold. "Part of it is flexibility -- things do change. Maybe one of the problems with the first accord was that a lot of people got their sales in very quickly. Maybe one or two central banks out there would prefer a bit more flexibility," he said.

WILLING SELLERS
Frederic Panizzutti of MKS Finance said willingness to sell was taken into account when the agreement was thrashed out. "Unless there has been a big change I would expect that there would be enough supply into the agreement," he said, adding that more details might emerge at the International Monetary Fund meetings next month. Barclays Capital analyst Kamal Naqvi said: "We only have 1,700 tonnes or so accounted for thus far -- but that doesn't mean the 1,700 tonnes has to be spaced out fully over the five years."

The contents of this letter/report does not necessarily reflect the opinions or viewpoint of normxxx. They are provided for informational/educational purposes only.

The content of this message is not to be construed as constituting market or investment advice. It is intended for educational purposes only. Individuals should consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.

-- posted by Normxxx

» Kirk - Gold is Knocking at Resistance

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-- posted by Kirk

» BoltonCT - Re: Gold is Knocking at Resistance

Gold had been beaten down by the EU countries selling off their reserves and initially by Russia's and China's need to mine gold for cash infusions. That started at the end of the last millenium. The selling pressure has now subsided and expectations of higher prices has begun to set in. As it does the sellers will realize they should be holding while many who have ignored gold before will realize they should have been buyers. Kirk, I look at the resistance level and see it instead as the upcoming breakout verification.

-- posted by BoltonCT

» Normxxx - Gold Stock Seasonality

By Steve Saville | 9 Oct, 2004
http://www.speculative-investor.com/new/... One-month free trial available.

The gold sector of the stock market has, over many years, exhibited a strong tendency to reach an extreme during the October-November period. For example, the below table indicates that gold stocks (as represented by the XAU) have made either an important low or an important high during October-November in 9 of the past 12 years and in each of the past 7 years. Furthermore, 3 of the 4 highs have occurred in October and 4 of the 5 lows have occurred in November.

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*In 2003 the actual closing high for the XAU occurred on the second trading day of December

The above-described gold stock seasonality suggests that the October-November period this year will provide us with either a major peak or a major trough. But which will it be?

In our 21st July commentary and in many subsequent commentaries we've argued that this year's October-November turning point would probably be a low. Specifically, our view has been that a rally into September would likely be followed by a successful test of the May low during November, after which the next upward leg in the secular bull market would get underway. This scenario has appealed to us because it meshed with our intermediate-term dollar view and the likelihood that we'd get a traditional October low in the stock market (when gold stocks move higher with the broad stock market as they have done since October of 2002 they will usually get dragged down if the broad market takes a big hit). However, as we approach the second week of October we have: a) the US$ still within its multi-month consolidation range, b) the stock market displaying a few signs of strength, and c) gold stocks making new recovery highs. As such, the probability is increasing that this year's October-November extreme will be a high rather than a low.

In our opinion, the odds of an important October-November low remain slightly better than the odds of a high. Clearly, though, if the major gold stocks continue to make new recovery highs after the middle of October then the odds will shift decisively in favour of the October-November turning point being a high. Such an outcome would provide some near-term excitement for the owners of gold stocks, but would be a bearish omen for the ensuing 12 months because in previous cases when the October-November turning point has provided a high the gold sector has trended lower over the ensuing 6-12 months.

Of course, it is quite possible that the above-described seasonality will not 'work' this year. In fact, we would never blindly assume that any seasonal/cyclical influence was going to work during any given year. Instead, our goal is always to have a rough road map in mind but to make investment/trading decisions based on a real-time analysis of ALL the main factors that affect the markets we follow. For instance, regardless of the direction in which well-worn seasonal effects were pointing we don't think it would make sense to turn intermediate-term bearish on the gold sector if the HUI/gold ratio was trending higher but had not yet reached an overbought extreme (as measured by our HUI/Gold Oscillator).

The bottom line is that although we wouldn't defer to seasonal/cyclical factors it's a good idea to be cognizant of them; especially in those cases when they have proven to be reliable over many years. That way, if other indicators do 'confirm' the seasonality then we will have a better idea of what to expect over the ensuing months/quarters.

email: sas888_hk@yahoo.com
Hong Kong

Regular financial market forecasts and analyses are provided at our web site.

The contents of this letter/report does not necessarily reflect the opinions or viewpoint of normxxx. They are provided for informational/educational purposes only.

The content of this message is not to be construed as constituting market or investment advice. It is intended for educational purposes only. Individuals should consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.

-- posted by Normxxx