Gold, Silver and Other PMs
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» Whirlwind - Gold Bull confirmed by markets...
The gold bull is being confirmed by the markets. Gold mining companies heavily hedged are being anihilated. If this recent rise in gold were to be a short lived phenomenon, then those hedged wouldn't be taking such a hit. They are being massacred. Ashanti is bankrupt.Canadian Miner Cambior Hurt By Gold Hedge Concerns
14:14 Wednesday, October 6, 1999 By Paul SimaoTORONTO ( Reuters ) -
Shares of Cambior Inc. continued to fall sharply Wednesday after the
Canadian gold miner revealed that it had hedged a significant portion of
its future production.Montreal-based Cambior, one of several mid-sized
gold producers that had profited from a stunning rally in the price of
bullion, dropped C$1.89, or 40 percent, to C$2.85 a share in heavy
midday trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange.Cambior said in a press
release Wednesday that it had hedged, or forward sold, 2.7 million
ounces of gold at an average price of $318 an ounce through to the year
2007. The company produced 638,000 ounces of gold in 1998.Gold, which
sank to a low of $251.70 an ounce in August amid concern about British
gold sales, has gained more than $50 an ounce since European central
banks pledged 11 days ago to cap future gold sales.Central bank sales,
along with a strong U.S. dollar, weak demand for metals and a lack of
worldwide inflation, were a key factor in the demise of gold during the
past two years.The precious metal traded at $322 an ounce
Wednesday.Hedging, a common practice among larger producers in the gold
industry, allows a company to cushion the effect of a falling gold price
by selling future production at a fixed price.
It can pay handsome dividends in an environment where confidence in gold
is declining, as it did last year, but hedging can backfire if gold
moves in the opposite direction.Ghana's Ashanti Goldfields Co Ltd.
discovered the perils of gold hedging as it scrambled this week to solve
a potential liquidity crisis after receiving heavy margin calls from the
banks with which it transacted its gold derivatives business.
Ashanti, which had hedged part of its production using a combination of
forward sales and put options built on the assumption of a continuing
slide in bullion prices, fell $1.50, or 27 percent, to $4 a share
Wednesday on the New York Stock Exchange.Analysts said other producers
would be pressured in the weeks ahead to reveal the size of their
hedging programs as investors continued to search for companies with
good exposure to a higher gold price.``There is no question that with
the rise in the gold price that companies such as Cambior do face
potential margin calls and the decision on unwinding and how expensive
it may be,'' said John Ing, president of Canadian brokerage Maison
Placements Canada Inc. in Toronto.``Every company with a hedge book is
having some very intense conversations with counterparties,'' Ing added.
( $1-$1.47 Canadian )
-- posted by Whirlwind
» Whirlwind - From October 4th
Give Murphy credit--he shouted to get into gold before the year end rally all summer.To The Internet and the Café,
In behalf of the Supreme Allied Internet Headquarters,
I would like to thank the "Internet Field Commanders"
for all the intelligence they have provided our forces.
The axis troops have big money, influence and power. We
have the truth and the Internet on our side. What you
are all doing is changing history!
The gold market has been manipulated and orchestrated
down to an unnaturally low level. Many of you all know
that now. The bullion dealer camp that has participated
in this manipulation has fed bearish propaganda to the
press, which they have eaten up because of the reputation
of the sources that fed them. Yes, "the establishment
esteemed" have spread "disinformation" to foster their
collusion.
It is either that, or some of the most highly regarded
financial institutions in the world ALL have much less
brainpower than they let on. Could ALL these MBA's and
hundred millionaires be that ignorant of the real
fundamentals of the gold market? Except for Lee Ann
Baker of Solomon Smith Barney, I can't think of another
of this crowd that did not "lemming" bearish diatribe. By
the way, Lee Ann has been a fan of Frank Veneroso for
some time.
But, enough of that. As you know, for many, many months
I have reiterated that a highly placed "Field Commander"
has told me that that the bullion banks and central
banks have massive amounts of naked calls (options)
around the $315 strike price level. As I mentioned in
my note to you earlier today, there is no telling how
high the price of gold could go if that price point
was breached.. That is why I spent this weekend
preparing a Midas which explained the gold dynamics
for you as best I could. My imperative
- "do not get out of position!"
I have just received 3 emails from your fellow
"Internet Field Commanders." It is superb intelligence.
December Comex Gold is trading at $330 right now -
UP $12 over the Comex close. More importantly
"Hannibal Lecter" and other "Hannibal Cannibals"
were seen buying heavily late in the Comex session.
This was PANIC BUYING.
Not only are hedge funds that have borrowed gold in
deep trouble, but these bullion dealers have written
all sorts of "structured deals" for producers to
enhance their "forward sale price." That is why
many of the producers have reported (in GLOWING TERMS)
what genius' they were for getting $60- $100 higher
a price than the then spot price for their future
gold production.
To accomplish that, the "Hannibal Cannibal" bullion
dealers ADVISED them to go for it. After all, gold
was never going up, according to these
brilliant soothsayers.
The hubris of these arrogants goes off the charts.
They conned the gold producers, the press, portfolio
managers and just about everyone. ALL BUT THE
INTERNET CROWD. AT LEAST, MOST OF YOU.
As I sent this email out, I can present you the
following facts:
Spot gold was trading $314.50 bid going into the
Comex close when someone bought so much gold it
rallied to around $316, violating the key $315
resistance level that I have been telling you about
for a long, long time. The "Hannibals" were seen
buying in size late in the day. The gold lease
rates ended up at a hefty 5% to 6% for the day.
Borrowers of gold are being slaughtered just
like they were in the end of the yen carry trade.
The yen they could buy back. Gold?
We believe the gold loans are in EXCESS of 10,000
tonnes. Mine supply is 2550 tonnes. How do those
that want to get out of their gold loans, get out?
There are many thousands of naked calls written
on top of that. How will they be covered? This
is what I told 3 Congressional Committees in
Washington this past spring. I urged them to
look into the gold loan situation before big
problems developed.
Many of you know that there are a gazillion
390 Dec Comex calls outstanding. We know for a
fact that most of them are uncovered calls. A well
known floor trader told me that if $390 is taken
out to the upside, the Comex could be in VERY
SERIOUS TROUBLE.
It gets worse.
This was posted by the well informed Sequin at
the popular Kitco gold site:
"Option trader got fired .
You guys can't even start to imagine how much blood
there is .
Bullion banks are in panic mode : derivative positions
too big to cover , no liquidity , fear about medium
size mine defaults because of overhedging and margin calls .
Very bad words in board rooms these days.
Banks hesitate to be the one who pulls the trigger on
mines since they could start a cascading default
chain reaction.
UBS is dead.
Goldman is dead.
Morgan is sh*tting razor blades but not dead yet .
Morgan stanley disappeared from radar screen.
They NEEEEED Gold to go down .
There is about 1 year production of buy order
between 280 / 295 If these guys start to panic it
might get interesting . But too much blood is not
always the best you can hope for : Beware of CBs
stepping in .
If there are small to medium mines defaulting ,
we could see contagion on the XAU.
So I would prefer an orderly rise .
I know this is too much to ask for and I am a
little bit excited. THKS"
I cannot vouch in any way for Sequin, but I can tell
you this man knows his stuff and his highly regarded
by my associates. What I can vouch for is that the
banks (Hannibals) are being seriously queried about
their gold market exposure. Today, Chase Bank (who
Field Commanders tell me has MEGA problems) downplayed
the gold problem to banking analysts.
"First Call" is an institutional service that provides
portfolio managers the opinion of buy side analysts.
Chase Bank, who is in the spotlight big time, has told
the analysts they have no problems because, in essence,
they HAD their producer clients hedge; ie, the downside was
protected and now with this gold move up, the credit
ratings of the gold producers will go up.
More on this Chase hype soon. My violin is strumming away.
Choke, choke choke
>From what I know, Chase is Newmont Mining's
"Hannibal." "Field Commanders" tell me they talked
Newmont into a "structured deal" forward sale at $270
just when the manipulation crowd was looking for
more gold supply to continue their "gold cartel games."
Newmont: what do you think of the "Hannibal Cannibal"
strong arm tactics now? What do your loyal shareholders
think? In Barron's you said "NO ONE SAW THIS COMING."
BULLCRAP. You met with me in Dallas, Texas and Frank
Veneroso in New Jersey. We TOLD YOU IT WAS COMING.
I don't blame Newmont. They are very decent people.
"HANNIBAL" forced them to do what they did. How would
you like to have been a Newmont Board of Director?
The esteemed Chase Bank tells you the price of gold
is going down. It is getting touch and go for you.
Hannibal: "You know Mr. Board of Director, if the
price of gold does do what we say it is going to do
that you might be held personally liable by
shareholders if your company goes down for the
count." That is what the "Hannibal Cannibals" did
to Newmont Mining and to other gold producers.
These guys were given little choice. IS THAT NOT
SO NEWMONT?
GATA still loves you Newmont. Get behind us! Stand up
for your shareholders!
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the Supreme Allied
Internet Headquarters is pleased to announce to the
Internet that the "Hannibal Cannibals" ARE in full
scale retreat. They have accepted GATA's ultimatum
of unconditional, dishonorable surrender and are now
fleeing out the back end of the "enveloping horn."
We will honor our terms and not close the back end
of the "enveloping horn" on them. (Perhaps, that is
where we differ from Shaka, the great (but, brutal)
South African Zulu Chieftan, who employed this strategy).
Again, I congratulate you all. Your persistent,
informed intelligence has been right on the money.
Only the U.S. Federal Reserve can bail them out now.
But, GATA has the heat on the Fed right now. We are
watching their every move. We know the commission
firm they cajoled to not pressure the "Hannibals."
The Congress of the United States has already opposed
the IMF gold sales- for very good reasons.
This is a big political year coming up. If the Fed
steps in trying to bail out its cronies, we will rush
to the political opposition of the present administration
and wave a red flag. GATA's recent findings have
already been sent to 3 Congressional Committees. For
9 months, GATA told you we would be RELENTLESS and that
we would not let down the thousands of gold family
people that told us they were counting on us. We promised
them an all out effort and results. And, we will
keep that promise.
Our camp will be more gracious than the "Hannibals"
have been. We will show mercy on them and let them
out of the back end of our "enveloping horn." When
the price of gold hits $340, we will ACCEPT THEIR SURRENDER.
Just a few more requirements before we ease off on
them. First, we want them to admit that Frank Veneroso's
analysis was right and Gold Field Mineral Services was wrong.
Second, we insist the talented, loquacious bullion
dealer apologist, Andy Smith, come up with a title
for the GATA movie. Andy told his well heeled clients
this past year over and over that GATA's ruminations
were more fanciful than a "Julia Roberts" movie.
Andy: hint - My Dad befriended Tom Cruise of Glen Ridge,
New Jersey when he was a busboy at the Glen Ridge Country
Club. He took Tom to his first professional football
game at Giants Stadium and they shared a good camaraderie.
Tom was commuting into New York at the time studying
acting and thought he had a shot at being a decent actor.
I TOAST THE INTERNET, ALONG WITH THE CAFE, AND THANK ALL
OF YOU THAT FIGHT THAT TRUTH BE KNOWN.
Le Metropole Café
All the best,
Bill Murphy
Le Patron
www.LeMetropoleCafe.com
-- posted by Whirlwind
» RandeS - Whirlwind,
Whirlwind,Gold has been, is, and will continue to be one of the biggest long-term losers in investment history. Anyone who chooses to put their money in this most miserable of investment assets for the long haul at the expense of long-term allocation to stocks and bonds will inevitably be as sorry as the die-hard gold bugs who periodically surface when the yellow stuff shows intermittent signs of life. Crow as these bugs might from time to time, the damage (opportunity cost) that has been done over the last nearly 20 years, is irreparable, and can never be made up no matter what happens going forward. Before coming down too hard on the misbegotten gold bugs, it's important to remember that everyone's entitled to a mistake, even though some evidently have abused the privilege in the extreme. (Just an opinion, as based on historical fact as it might be, and nothing personal.)
-- posted by RandeS
» Whirlwind - =l
Whirlwind,"Gold has been, is, and will continue to be one of the biggest long-term
losers in investment history."
Wrong. Tulips, South Sea, buggy hardware in the 1920's. Wang Labs, etc, etc. I can add more.
"Anyone who chooses to put their money in
this most miserable of investment assets for the long haul..."
Why pigeonhole other investors with "long haul" if they take their golden fruits off the table when they're ripe.
"...at the
expense of long-term allocation to stocks and bonds will inevitably be
as sorry as the die-hard gold bugs who periodically surface when the
yellow stuff shows intermittent signs of life."
Some of these bugs have been in and out and gained handsomely. Those in at $5 silver and $250 gold will do better than your Dow intrmediate term. I could give a damn about the long term. I don't need a long term rally to make out on this one.
"Crow as these bugs might
from time to time..."
Who's crowing now?
"...the damage (opportunity cost) that has been done over
the last nearly 20 years, is irreparable, and can never be made up no
matter what happens going forward."
Pure BS--if gold hits $400 those who bottomed fished adequately will be justly compensated.
"Before coming down too hard on the
misbegotten gold bugs, it's important to remember that everyone's
entitled to a mistake, even though some evidently have abused the privi
lege in the extreme. (Just an opinion, as based on historical fact as it
might be, and nothing personal.)"
1929 was also an historical fact.
-- posted by Whirlwind
» RandeS - Looks like silver IS getting a bit of a bounce in here, as is pa
Looks like silver IS getting a bit of a bounce in here, as is palladium, even as gold and platinum fall a bit. Oil futures are interesting as slide continues -- Aug. 2000 contract is flirting with the $20/barrell level.-- posted by RandeS
» JenL_3 - Bovine Gold
Just for fun....this from SeattleTimes.com:Farmers get cow flops to sing `Ka-ching!'
....Jen
-- posted by JenL_3
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