Gold, Silver and Other PMs

Top 12. Sep 28, 1999 6:02 AM

» KirkL - Gold at $299!

Gold at $299!!!!
AMAZING rally Al!
IMPRESSIVE Free LIVE price quotes for gold / silver / platinum bullion & coins
Up $16 now!
In the old days, this would indicate inflation is ahead. Could be telling us something we don't want to hear. I wonder what Roger has to say? I DO NOT remember his forecasting gold going to $300 in his tale of gloom and doom. In fact, in a deflationary economic meltdown he predicted, I would have expected Gold to continue its decline.
<img src= http://216.32.224.100/bc3/intchart/frame... width=430 height=218> Placer Dome went from $10 to $15 7/16 just this month! It was up 30% just yesterday and could go up big again today. 8.4M shares…..eclipsing volumes since the bottom fell out in December.

Sure shows that even Gold is hard to market time!
Look at the Green in These Gold Companies!
This could be fun to watch!

-- posted by KirkL

Top 13. Sep 28, 1999 6:08 AM

» RandeS - Looks like Erdman's call for $300-325 is getting closer.

Looks like Erdman's call for $300-325 is getting closer. Just think, gold might get all the way back to where it was a couple of years ago. Whether it sits there for another 15 years or so like it's done in the past will depend on inflation.

-- posted by RandeS

Top 14. Sep 28, 1999 6:20 AM

» KirkL - I guess I don't understand Rande

Why is gold going up?
Central Bankers following OPEC lead and selling less then needed to limit supply and bring up prices?
Won't they drop once they start selling again?
Isn't this like oil in that once mining (or drilling) comes back on line, supply gets higher and puts more downward pressure on prices?
Aren't there many like Den that have Gold under mattresses waiting to sell when they can get good money for it and now take a profit against tax losses for mining?

-- posted by KirkL

Top 15. Sep 28, 1999 6:35 AM

» RandeS - Kirk,

Kirk,

I think Erdman's got it right. Central banks around the world have rightfully decided to dump significant portions of their gold holdings for hard cash that can be put to better use. The planned sales took the $300 floor out from under gold in a big way. The Swiss are evidently brighter than some of the rest and persuaded the EU to announce a moratorium on additional sales for five years. The planned sales, which are HUGE, will still take place, but this takes a big unknown out of the market and allows these crafty central bankers to get a better price for the yellow stuff over the next year or two. Die-hard gold bugs who never seem to go away and have carped about the inevitable doom of the the purchasing price of paper currency that is tied to a free-floating exchange system for ages, still cling to the long-dead notion that gold somehow matters in today's financial markets and will one day again become the monetary anchor it once was. Forget about it. Yes, it seems the central banks have taken a clue from OPEC in a way by at least forming some kind of solidarity. The big difference between the gold "cartel" and OPEC is that nobody needs gold, but everybody needsd oil. Look at the diamond cartel, for example. De Beers controls the overwhelming majority of diamond mine production and distribution. It hasn't helped them much over the past 20 years, if the price of diamonds is any indication. In the end, all we have here with gold is a more orderly sell side. That's it. And no matter how many Asians decide to buy gold jewelry in the years ahead, the case for gold is ultimately NOT one of supply and demand (for anything beyond the short-term anyway, where a quick buck might be made). The long-term case for gold begins and ends with inflation. And even that's not a slam-dunk anymore as there are a number of alternative investments that have proven to be better hedges against inflation over time.

-- posted by RandeS

Top 16. Sep 28, 1999 7:56 AM

» JenL_3 - A Golden Prediction

Here is a snippit on Gold prices from the 9/27 TA free e-mail newsletter from alpha:

Gold prices rocketed six percent in their biggest one-day jump in 17 years on Monday, unleashing double-digit gains in global mining shares after a pledge by Europe's central banks to curb gold sales forced even stalwart bears to capitulate. The +6.15-percent gain in bullion was the biggest daily rise for gold since a rise of +6.9 percent, from $406 to $434, on November 29, 1982. The move appears to confirm, after last week's raucous response to Britain's successful reserve auction, that the metal was in a new bullish phase after its slump to 20-year lows this summer. In my monthly newsletter in August 15, I wrote "the Gold prices still showing no reaction to data from the mining-industry-funded World Gold Council - second quarter gold demand is up +16 percent year-over-year, to a quarterly record high of 810 tons. I would start to look up some gold-bargains." In addition, last night in our Short & Long Term Momentum Trends we had all Gold Stocks as a Buy+, and most of them surged UP 20%+ Intraday!!!

short (free) version of the newsletter here:
http://members.spree.com/sip/alfamdgcorp...

......Jen

-- posted by JenL_3

Top 17. Sep 28, 1999 9:43 AM

» DennisL - The Prices of Gold and Oil

These skyrocketing gold and oil prices have me worried. Rising gold prices concurrent with rising oil prices bring back so many memories of the miserable '70s--most notably "stagflation," an era of high inflation, high interest rates, and a stagnant economy, along with generally downcast feelings by the public about our country, the world in general, and the future. I hope for the sake of all of us that we are not on the verge of entering another similar era.

I am also hoping that the stock market will somehow hold together for the next two months because reinvestment of my retirement fund assets at work is now frozen until the end of November while the company transfers management of the funds to Vanguard. Given the lightning speed at which news travels and things happen in today's world, two months is a long time. If gold prices and oil prices continue to ratchet up quickly between now and December, I could get wiped out.

-- posted by DennisL

Top 18. Sep 28, 1999 5:25 PM

» Whirlwind - KrugerRands...

RandS, you sound like the bears did when the market gained its last few thousand points. Good to here it coming from the other side now. The upcoming 5 year CB sales are not huge. They only fill a third of the supply/demand gap. Rising gold prices will curtail some demand, but it will also attract investment dollars. Demand is huge under $300 anyway. October is here. Dow is in trouble. I just don't see the rally month last October was.

Longer term, I believe as Kirk that the country will grow and prosper. But not until we are rid of Klinton.

-- posted by Whirlwind

Top 19. Sep 28, 1999 5:58 PM

» RandeS - Alan,

Alan,

I'll wait to eat my hat until gold is able to sustain a rise above it's long term average of $300-$400. The recent drop to unsustainably low levels was no more realistic than the depression-level dips commodity prices in general underwent in the past couple of years. Just as recent rises in commodities, including oil, are nothing to freak out about, this jump in gold (as dramatic as it is) is not based on the fundamental inflation case, but on central bank action and manipulation. Congratulations to you and anyone who was able to capitalize on the short-term move. I continue to believe that the long-term case for hard assets is a dismal one, while the scenario going forward for financial assets remains a positive one. My bag is more of a long-term one, rather than the quick turn. I just don't see the long-term case for the metal. Now, if you want a really bearish outlook for gold, talk to Roger. He's calling for outright deflation in which case both gold and financial assets (except for Treasuries) are headed straight for the crapper. I think I'll have to remain skeptical with regard to both extremes -- hard asset hayday OR hell in a handbasket -- at least until I feel there's a legitimate possibility of getting slapped in the face by either. Not even close at this point.

-- posted by RandeS

Top 20. Sep 28, 1999 8:29 PM

» KirkL - Credit where due

I think some here were talking about gold as a buy at the recent low levels (Al) just like Gene and I were kicking around energy plays just before they took off and left me behind. Still fun to think about it before others see it, but the real credit goes to those acting on the short term plays. I don't know if Al rode Gold down from $600 or $700, but recent buys near $250 or so were sure good. Good sniffing out oversold conditions Al!

(Again, I take it back if you rode gold down from mid $300's!)

-- posted by KirkL