Honey's Brinker Beehive--Not a Fan Club

Top 67. Oct 20, 2005 8:32 AM

» honeyoneohone - Bob Brinker, Counter-Trend Rallies and QQQQ

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Those who don't learn from history are destined to repeat it. Will L. gives us a little bobmeister-history:

Ah Fish, thanks for letting us go back to look at Brinker's INCONSISTANCY. Remember that was the thrust of the post. Brinker went from claiming that "the way you make money in a bear market is to play the countertrend rallies" in the summer and fall of 2000. It was ONLY after the big better for both conservative and aggressive investors on the ACT IMMEDIATELY brain XXXX of his that Brinker stopped claiming that short term trading in a bear market was a wise idea. Now he claims that short term timing cannot be done. Flippity Flop.
When Brinker was talking in the summer of 2000 he claimed that only "sophisticated investors" should trade his radio trade and then went on to encourage people who didn't have a clue about what a QQQ was, how to buy it or anything else. He bragged on a caller who instead of waiting till the QQQs fell back into the seventies and instead buying in the mid 80s "Old Clem here 'did the math' and knows that if I make more than 25% on my buy point he will make more than 10% on his. Way to go Clem" --another FLIP FLOP
When Brinker sold in a panic at $84 "SELL AT $84"--he explained it by saying. "The most important thing in a bear market is capital preservation"
In the October 2000 trade in which he recommended both conservative and aggressive investors, with no mention of any "sophistication" to buy QQQs in the 80s, with up to 1/3 of a portfolio, Brinker never had a single stop. Brinker never had a single warning about what would happen if the QQQQs went down instead of up. Brinker talked about "opportunity to make 20% or more" with no mention at all of risk.
In contrast to "Preservation of capital is the most important thing in a bear market".....held all the way from the 80s to 19.00 with never a mention of a plan to deal with the market movement.
Instead he claimed when the QQQQs were all the way down in the 30s. "We don't sell on weakness."
ANOTHER HUGE FLIP FLOP in the same trade of the same index separated by only a few months.
Let's set the stage. Brinker made his "tactical asset allocation" call in Jan 2000. He said he was NOT BEARISH at the time and left 40% in the market. He said that the Nasdaq was not part of his call (recall at the time the Nasdaq tech stocks made up about 40% of the S&P 500) He said that the Nasdaq was a casino and that nobody could time it.
Then 4 months went by and only the Nasdaq had taken a big hit (dotcom meltdown). So Brinker began explaining that the way to make money in this market was to exploit the counter trend rallies.
Here was the way KLR of 101 took to the first QQQ call of Brinkers:
Author: KLR
Discussion: Bob Brinker - Free Discussion Site
Date: May 27, 2000 2:10 PM
Subject: Counter trend trading
Brinker says the Nasdaq is a "sector" and can't be timed by the model. Ignore the high flying, casino nas stocks. (when they are going up that is). Now he says this is the time for a short term counter-rally in the Nas which can be played for a short term gain. Use some of your dry powder to buy QQQ for a quick profit and get back out and wait for the bear. What happened to the old advice to avoid attempting short term market timing trading?"
Now remember Brinker was about to claim he had been bearish and not 'tactical allocationish' back in Jan. (He did that sometime in the summer or fall of 2000 and since has been saying "We were bearish in Jan 2000....yada lie bs yada".)
So here you had Brinker talking about identifying countertrend rallies in the highest flyers in the market and playing them while simultaneously claiming that soon after the rally the market would plummet.

-- posted by honeyoneohone

Top 68. Oct 20, 2005 1:20 PM

» honeyoneohone - Bob Brinker "Flip-Flops" = Inconsistency

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Woooeee...things are not looking very good for the-Brink and his "counter-trend rally" today. Is he planning to take the weekend off? smile

Spinning some "tunes," by Will L:

"Dija says that rather than being inconsistant, Brinker learns from his mistakes. I would say Brinker makes up his mind what he wants to have happen, and if it doesn't happen he changes his "tune".
To me it is usually not a matter of "learning" but a matter of "spinning".
The QQQ trade that was "on the radio" had a big problem in that it was well in the black before Brinker announced it and NEVER returned to the area of the recommended buy.
It's like picking noon today for instance if this rally would go through Friday and be up 5% and then go on the radio bragging about buying at the price on Wed noon. We know from subsequent behavior of "the Bob" that had the market went the other way, you would have never heard about the call.
That seems to be more under the heading of a parlor trick or marketing ploy, than any useful financial advice.
When Brinker in a panic sold the QQQs at the low of the summer--$84--they went to $100 before that and he told callers not to sell---they went over $100 after that call to sell--he said VERBATIM. "The most important thing in a bear market is the preservation of capital"
Okay--so he sanctioned people getting into the trade because they had "done the math" much above the price that he initially recommended (albeit after the fact) -and then told them to sell in the vicinity of their entry point--some were buying in the high 80s and thus they lost 3 or 4 bucks a share. However for someone who was predicting the big bear; what Brinker did seems to make sense. (not the flakey idea of thinking he could time the market --getting out of the trade)
Yet move ahead 3 months and Brinker decides on doing the same thing--Invest cash reserves in the QQQQs for a two to four month period for gains of more than 20%"
Same security, same promise of upside. This time he specified huge % committments for this short term "opportunity". He gave no discussion of RISK. He gave no STOP.
Now this thing was an unmitigated disaster. I recall perhaps the funniest thing to this day is that when people were questioning Brinker's wisdom and why he had not discussed the terrible performance of the QQQs and what to do that old Fishbrain posting as walkerman had the balls to apologize for Brinker by saying "Brinker said in the Act Immediately Bulletin that he would tell us if anything changed. You bashers just don't understand that nothing has changed"
....At any rate the "change" was that the security that Brinker kept all the way down fell about 3/4 of it's original value. The thing that did change was Brinker's approach to this falling QQQQ debacle.
Recall in the summer "The most important thing in a bear market is capital preservation".
Now after the Oct QQQ debacle some who still had a third in the market before the call, added a third in the QQQQs according to Bobs' instructions. They then held because Brinker said instead of what he did in the summer--as the market plummetted..
"We don't sell on weakness."
Dija might contend that Birnker learned from the Summer QQQ call to "not panic and hold on". If so he is obviously right and Brinker did hold on. LOL with ithers money.
The facts as I stated them are indisputable.
What he should have learned was that he could not time the market successfully and doing so short term exposed him as a phoney very very quickly. That is simply my opinion."

-- posted by honeyoneohone

Top 69. Oct 20, 2005 6:02 PM

» honeyoneohone - When Will Bob Brinker Screw Up Long-term Timing...

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...like he did his "trades," and hand it all off to Jr? It may only be a matter of time.

An old-time Brinker-defender made the following statement: "But I also don't see any real inconsistency. He experimented with short-term timing, got burned, and quit doing it."

Will L answers:

"You don't see any inconsistancy when in the summer trade Brinker says because he sold out at a bad time.
"The most important thing in a bear market is the preservation of capital"
AND
When in the QQQ ACT IMMEDIATELy trade for up to 1/3 of an entire portfolio Brinker recommended buying the QQQs in the 80s and has held them to this day once reaching under 20 bucks for a 75% loss. To explain this move --holding the same security with the same promised "opportunity" all the way down Brinker said
"We don't sell on weakness".
You don't see an inconsistancy. LOL You wouldn't.
The problem with short term timing calls is that they happen more often and Brinker loses credibility more quickly--that is why he is outta dat bidness.
"He experimented with short-term timing, got burned, and quit doing it."
Since this is the anniversary of the big drop in 1987, you could make that same statement with Brinker's timing there as well. He was bullish through the sell off, went 100% to cash after the recovery in early 88 and drifted around not fully invested while the market moved up 35% or so over the next 3 yrs. It remains the ONLY time ever Brinker predicted a bear market, said he was bearish and went to 100% cash. He experimented, got burned..but kept doing it. Hell that's all he has to sell Dija. LOL
The sooner people learn that whatever it is that Brinker claims to be able to predict whether it is the superbowl, the QQQQs or the entire stock market, the more skeptical they should become and the faster they should run...the other way.
It's only a matter of time until he screws up big time in the "long term timing" department again, claims then to change the model or turn it over to the rising newsletter purveyor junior to carry on the ruse.

-- posted by honeyoneohone

Top 70. Oct 21, 2005 8:01 AM

» honeyoneohone - Bob Brinker: "Carnival Game?"

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The Bobmeister has recommended buying at 1180, or on dips below.

Right this minute (7:55am PDT), the S&P is at 1179. Which way will it go?

If it goes down further, will the-Brink be on the radio this weekend? Will he talk about the stock market, or stick to his old standbys--real estate, politics and interviews?

The suspense builds... smile

A loyal Brinker defender asked: "....didn't brinker say there would be a buying opportunity if the S&P dipped below 1180?"

Will L. responded:

"It's 1178 as I type. What is your point? You see Dija, that is the fallacy of the game Brinker plays. If the market goes in the direction he predicted, he yells to the sky how great he is and how stupid anyone who suggested the market would go the other direction is.
And when the market goes against him Brinker simply shuts up and hides the information pretending "I didn't say that".
It's a typical carnival game. Too bad many people trusted the guy enough to lose their ass.
To claim that you know what is going to happen in this economy/world/political situation is totally ludicrous.
Brinker has not a fXXXXX clue. Yesterday you wanted to pretend he did because there was an up day in the market. Does today's action mean that he is back to being clueless? LOL"

-- posted by honeyoneohone

Top 71. Oct 21, 2005 9:12 AM

» honeyoneohone - Caller Buys Google & Wins in Spite of Brinker's Advice

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This just in--reported by pen name "klr from 101":

"Remember Laurel who called into moneytalk back at the end of April. She told Bob she bought Google at $220 because she heard it was going to $300. Bob didn't seem to like her idea. Well today she is sitting in the catbird seat with a watermelon smile while Bob has egg all over his face. Google is trading around $340 as I post this. Kudos to Laurel."

-- posted by honeyoneohone

Top 72. Oct 21, 2005 4:56 PM

» honeyoneohone - Bob Brinker's BJ Group Wrap Fund and UTEK

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Do you believe it was all innocent? Want a buy Will L's horse? smile

"As I recall from posts on this thread at the time UTEK had something like 700 employees. Let's say an average of 50k of funds went into Brinker's management company. At 1% of assets, that would 500.00 X 700 or 350,000. I would guess that this is a lowball figure. If you disagree and think several hundred customers handed to Brinker by managment of UTEK is trivial, I have a bridge to sell you.
The great thing about these wrap fund gigs like Brinker's BJ group is that it is almost like stealing. He functions as basically a money forwarder. Brinker collects a fee and simply forwards the money to mutual fund companies and takes a % of total assets for little work. There are no trading expenses or research staff needed for Brinker's wrap fund. Just collect the money, take the vigorish and send what is left to the selected mutual funds. A tiny clerical staff is all you need.
Assuming normal times and increasing account assets it's like a money machine because there is an annual fee on an increasing account that requires almost NO WORK after setup.
Instead of having to advertise for individual customers, having a company choose to make availabe to hundreds of their employees your wrap fund is a home run. Utek chose the BJ group as their wrap fund for their 401k plan.
Brinker chose UTEK as the only stock that he could recommend people BUY in his newsletter from sometime in 97 for the next couple years while nearly all technology skyrocketed and UTEK languished.
What Brinker never did disclose and tried to obscure under his aliases and on the radio was the fact that while he was touting UTEK, the company was paying him in a fee-based relationship.
Brinker under his aliases on the net when confronted with the same thing Paul Kangas and a radio caller did live, shifted the question from a quid pro quo and answered a different question. "The BJ group never invests in individual stocks so there is no conflict"--he would say. He totally avoided the impropriety of touting a stock without disclosing that the company you are touting is paying you in a fee based relationship. Slick....but not forthright.
You may find that behavior honorable and above board. You like Math may say everybody was doing it and it was the culture to screw your subscribers. I don't think that was true at the time either. I find it reprehensible and exactly the method Grubman used in selecting a stock to tout--based on the fact they were paying his company in a fee based relationship. In fact I would say Brinker was far worse. At the time Jack Grubman had many stocks that he called a "Buy", that were not paying him. Brinker in the greatest tech boom in history during the late 90s in his newsletter had only one "Buy"--UTEK, and UTEK was paying him in an undisclosed fee based relationship.
Watching Brinker's handling of the QQQQ fiasco, watching his dishonesty posting as Don Lane to tout UTEK after luring people to the site by his media touting and newsletter touting of UTEK, tells you that he really really really wanted you to "buy utek" and for godsake not short utek.
Please dija go to the link I gave you and explain Brinker's behavior and tell us why you never saw him act that way over a mutual fund or another stock? Is it rational behavior for a two bit radio show host to be pumping a stock like Brinker did UTEK under his alias on the net?
Does anyone not believe that it was related to the lucrative business in his BJ group that was selected by the company? If so wanna buy a horse?

-- posted by honeyoneohone

Top 73. Oct 21, 2005 8:01 PM

» JackSwanson - What is Stinker's asset allocation now?

What is it?

-- posted by JackSwanson

Top 74. Oct 22, 2005 8:39 AM

» honeyoneohone - Re: What is Stinker's asset allocation now?

In response to What is Stinker's asset allocation now? posted by JackSwanson:

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Hi Jack...good to hear from you.

I assume you are asking how much money Brinker is recommending that one have in the stock market.

Last I heard (but I do not subscribe to his newsletter, so may be some lag time if he changes his mind), he was bullish and 100% in with stock market cash allocation.

It will be interesting to see if he is on this weekend and if he will discuss the market.

It's looky rather dicey for him right now. The S&P is setting a fraction of a percent below his buy level of 1180. smile

-- posted by honeyoneohone

Top 75. Oct 22, 2005 8:49 AM

» honeyoneohone - Brinker's 5-Year Anniversary of QQQQ

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I'm "guessing" that Will L. is right on target with the following:

"I'm guessing Brinker won't be bashing the "bad news bears' too much this weekend. Oil down pretty big this week yet so was the market. Brinker needs the wind in his sails to get to his frisky bashing best.
Many of us don't claim to know what the market is going to do but it's funny to watch someone like Brinker who claims he does.
You see it's such a parlor trick. When the market is going his way, he brags about how bright he is and how stupid everyone else is. When the market is going against him, he pretends there is no market or talks about it over a time frame that is flattering to him. Hubris made to sell a rag.
One thing we know about this guy- he'll try anything with your money and just like his radio show--if it doesn't work out, he'll HIDE it.
This is the 5 yr anniversary of the QQQQ idear--here was the hatching of the plan by the grand poobah in 2000.
"one of the great advantages inherent in our large cash reserve position is the flexibility to be able to take advantage of short-term countertrend rally opportunities when they are identifiable."--Bob Brinker 2000
Somebody ought to call Bob and ask him if he thinks that "opportunity" is getting near a close. LOL"

-- posted by honeyoneohone