Honey's Brinker Beehive--Not a Fan Club

Top 516. Feb 18, 2006 9:50 AM

» honeyoneohone - I went to 98% cash today.

In response to I went to 98% cash today. posted by Kirk:

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REITS have been HUGE winners throughout the whole market drop that began in 2000, and they continue to do well to this day.

Brinker does not recommend any REITS in his Marketimer--and as I recall, on his radio program, recommends only a very small holding in them--when he is asked.

-- posted by honeyoneohone

Top 517. Feb 18, 2006 12:51 PM

» honeyoneohone - I went to 98% cash today.

In response to I went to 98% cash today. posted by mrs1123:

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Greetings Mrs.1123,

You made some excellent points. I hadn't really thought about how risk-tolerance might be affected by the amount of total assets one might have.

I see your point about the $10K as opposed to the $100K, but I wondered if it might not also work the other way around, too.

If one only had $10K total assets, it seems to me like it is taking a lot of risk to have it in a stock market that is headed south. smile Whereas, if one has a larger asset-pool, he/she seems better equipped to withstand temporary (or even permanent) losses, in order insure that any big run-ups in the market are not missed.

Perhaps in the end, it all boils down to each individual's ability to ride out the rough spots without panicking out at the bottom and truly locking in losses.

I think that Brinker has tried to make this point. I have heard him even suggest that certain, "nervous-nellie" investors leave the stock market entirely--for the sake of their own peace of mind.

-- posted by honeyoneohone

Top 518. Feb 18, 2006 3:08 PM

» mrs1123 - I went to 98% cash today.

In response to I went to 98% cash today. posted by honeyoneohone:

"I hadn't really thought about how risk-tolerance might be affected by the amount of total assets one might have." That is even more evident if you use the figure of $500,000 instead of $100,000. With the $500,000 you can make $20,000 just on 4% interest.

Now with the $10,000 you might be scared out of the market because you are worried about your principle. But you might be even more scared to leave the market because you fear that you will miss a big run up that could bring more than double the gains of 4% interest.

With the smaller amount you might be more desperate to stay in the market to try and build up what you have rather than flee.

It is more than an individual's ability to ride out the rough spots without panicking out at the bottom and truly locking in losses. It is also having a sense of where the market is headed. If you have a lack of confidence it is difficult to be invested.

Despite Bob's thinking that if you didn't heed his market timing call to get back in the market you truly don't have to worry about getting in on the dead bottom. If the market is going to go up on real fundamentals and not smoke and mirrors there will always be time to get back in for the markets rise.

Thank goodness for the "nervous-nellie" who went 75% or better to cash in Janurary 2000.

-- posted by mrs1123

Top 519. Feb 18, 2006 4:21 PM

» honeyoneohone - I went to 98% cash today.

In response to I went to 98% cash today. posted by mrs1123:

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Much of what you say makes sense, but I just wonder how many people with only 10K in cash assets actually invest in the stock market. And I would question whether someone with only that much would actually be dependent on the income or gain from the 10K.

Doesn't Bob Brinker, as well as other financial advisors, recommend having a few month's worth of living costs set aside? I would think doing that is not so important for people who are self-sufficient as far as regular income, but it would be very important for those who depend on a paycheck of any kind.

You are so correct that a lot of our equity-allocation decisions are based on our "sense of where the market is headed" and if one doesn't feel confident that the trend is up, it is not good to have your money at risk.

I think "feeling confident" is one reason why some people have so much affection for Bob Brinker. Throughout the 1990's his encouragement kept a lot of people in the market, who otherwise, might have been frightened out.

I know of a couple of people who claim that by staying fully invested during this time, they were able to retire early. I just hope that the people who are staying fully invested NOW because of this previous experience with Bob Brinker are not badly hurt. We will know "in the fulness of time." Obviously, it won't be you getting hurt by following Brinker's "cyclical bull" too far. smile

It does seem risky to put too much confidence in Bob Brinker when one considers how he rode the bear down from January 2000 to March 2003, with at least 35% in the stock market, not counting the (up to) 50% that he recommended be put back into the QQQQ.

As I recall, he even denied that we were in a bear market until after the market had dropped considerably in 2000.

Oh, BTW, Mrs1123, before I go, I have to ask you what you meant when you said this: smile "Thank goodness for the "nervous-nellie" who went 75% or better to cash in Janurary 2000."

-- posted by honeyoneohone

Top 520. Feb 18, 2006 7:13 PM

» mrs1123 - I went to 98% cash today.

In response to I went to 98% cash today. posted by honeyoneohone:

Actually what I should have said was Thank goodness for the "brave-nellie(s)" who were smart enough to get out at the top with 75% or better to cash in Janurary 2000 despite Bob's advice.

-- posted by mrs1123

Top 521. Feb 19, 2006 12:41 AM

» mrs1123 - I heard much of Bob Brinker today.

The signal was weak and had crossover from another radio station. The sense I got from his program was he didn't have a sense of bullishness. I wonder if anybody picked up on that? Too I was reminded of how he speaks a lot but doesn't really say much. I also was reminded that to glean any information you really need to read between the lines.

-- posted by mrs1123

Top 522. Feb 19, 2006 5:44 AM

» allancoleman - I heard much of Bob Brinker today.

In response to I heard much of Bob Brinker today. posted by mrs1123:

i heard all of bob's show yesterday myself and i didn't sense that bob has dropped his bullish stance . i agree that bob talks alot and sometimes doesn't say much . smile . and you are very correct that a person really needs to ' read between the lines ' to glean any information you really need .

bob's guest was excellent and the discussion on ' critical mass ' and the author's book and data he used in writing the book about the ' numbers ' it takes to retire was interesting . i particularily thought the advice the guest gave that sometimes the important questions to ask about critical mass aren't how much more a person needs to retire , but rather should be , " can i retire with less " . sometimes your best security in retirement , or life for that matter , is your ability to do without .

-- posted by allancoleman

Top 523. Feb 19, 2006 7:35 AM

» pete2214 - I went to 98% cash today.

In response to I went to 98% cash today. posted by allancoleman:

Is it wrong to say when I grow up I want to be like allan or kirk? smile Hey allan I agree that there is really no leadership in this market but I am such a pig I might end up getting slaughtered. UGGHHH I might reallocate this week.

-- posted by pete2214

Top 524. Feb 19, 2006 7:37 AM

» pete2214 - I went to 98% cash today.

In response to I went to 98% cash today. posted by Kirk:

I don't know if this has been discussed here before but do you consider your equities in the house as part of your asset? Its hard not to.

-- posted by pete2214