Honey's Brinker Beehive--Not a Fan Club
- honeyoneohone
- honeyoneohone
- mr_smart_e_pants
- honeyoneohone
- honeyoneohone
- honeyoneohone
- honeyoneohone
- SteveT
- honeyoneohone
- honeyoneohone
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» honeyoneohone - The Brink's Predictions: Oil, Gold and Inflation
.Brinker is no "economist" but he plays one on radio.
Will L. discusses the effects of oil on inflation, gold, the world market and Brinker...
"FishXXXX seems to put great stock in Bob Brinker's claims that Greenspan is wrong and that energy prices are not inflationary.If indeed FishXXXX and Brinker are correct, then oil has dropped about 10 bucks and yet the market seems to be pricing in the Fed increasing rates and worried about inflation.
The market while seeming to go down as the oil prices increased, now is not going up as the price of oil comes down. If Brinker's claim was correct wouldn't a 15% "tax cut" in oil price have resulted in large bullish move in the market?
Indeed gold is now at an 18 yr high, some saying because of inflation fears. Copper prices are at very high levels.
I believe that more and more the market is beginning to worry that soon all we will be exporting is $$ and inflation will be necessary to attract those owning our $$ to finance our great and increasing budget deficit.
At any rate, I'm not an economist and certainly Bob Brinker is not either. Brinker is on record when oil was 10 bucks a barrel as saying that there was no future in investing in oil as it was a commodity without any real importance in our economy. Pretty much lets Brinker out of the circle of brainiacs to discuss oil economics doesn't it?"
It will be fascinating to watch as the fall markets unfold.
My predictions is that on weeks that the market is down, you will not hear Brinker use the words "bad news bears" and he will talk very little and most likely not at all about current market conditions.
On weekends following a big bounce in the market you will hear brinker bashing the "bad news bears" and pounding his chest about his bullish stance.
If we continue on the current path, look for Brinker to start blaming Greenspan and the fed and Katrina and the weather and President Bush and the administration for being "exogenous events" that have delayed his bull market. LOL"
-- posted by honeyoneohone
» honeyoneohone - Brinker Consistent: Rising Oil Prices Deflationary
.Brinker is consistent on the subject of rising oil prices and the effects on the economy. But is he correct?
Writing as "donlane/mistertopes' in 1999, he said the same thing he is saying now.
http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...
To:Wally Mastroly who wrote (8544)
From: mister topes Monday, Sep 13, 1999 2:06 PM
View Replies (2) | Respond to of 15130
Rising oil prices act the same way on consumers as
rising taxes. They pull discretionary income out
of the pockets of consumers and into the pockets
of those selling gasoline and heating oil to
consumers and utilities and transportation companies.
Therefore rising oil prices should be viewed as
an economic depressant, which would tend to
reduce the growth rate of the economy as this
"energy tax" effect works its way through.
On balance, Alan Greenspan probably likes this net effect.
-- posted by honeyoneohone
» mr_smart_e_pants - Re: Brinker Consistent: Rising Oil Prices Deflationary
In response to Brinker Consistent: Rising Oil Prices Deflationary posted by honeyoneohone:Hello Honeyoneohone,
Just a brief note to thank you for your efforts in setting the record straight.
Congratulations on your high ranking in the search engines.
Keep up the great work!
Regards,
mr_smart_e_pants
-- posted by mr_smart_e_pants
» honeyoneohone - Re: Re: Brinker Consistent: Rising Oil Prices Deflationary
In response to Re: Brinker Consistent: Rising Oil Prices Deflationary posted by mr_smart_e_pants:.
Thank you so much! And thank you for paying me a visit. I am honored. Please feel free to post anything that you care to contribute to this thread.
-- posted by honeyoneohone
» honeyoneohone - Has the-Brink Pointed to Benchmark Lows For This Correction?
.Will L. discusses how Brinker may deal with this current correction on his radio program this weekend--IF the next two days don't create a BIG rally in the stock market.
" The bulls and the bears all have something to say about the current market, but they can't argue about the current direction.The bulls say that they are looking for a big drop and then a bottom to form.
The bears ...well they just look for the drop or a continued miserable market.
I honestly haven't heard what Brinker has said about the market lately. Other than apparently being "bullish", and blasting the "bad news bears" (they've picked up nearly 5% in the last week or so) I heard a poster the other day on here claim Brinker "predicted" this selloff. To hear him tell it the market was going just like Bob predicted it would.
Does anyone else claim this to be true? I recall in times past Brinker would predict the low and claim to hit it within a percent or two and brag on the model claiming it was designed to come withing 3% of "benchmark low" buying opportunities? (He off by a mile in Aug of 98 and hid for a couple of months)
Has he left that out of his game these days? Has Brinker pointed to any "benchmark" lows for this correction?
The last "benchmark" low I heard Brinker mention was when he took another bite of the QQQQ apple claiming for "up to 50% gains or more" from the Benchmark low of 52 in Jan 01." Oops.
So I'd like to hear about the "benchmark low" and also make a prediction.
If the market doesn't make a strong rally in the next two days, Brinker won't discuss the stock market much this weekend. He will whine about the feds and again issue his opinion that energy prices are not inflationary. He will whine about the politicians and blame them for holding him back.
He will continue his moratorium on bashing the "bad news bears".
He will NOT mention YTD returns in the market.
Now if the market does make some sort of bottom and comes back strongly..
He will talk about having predicted just what happened.
He will open season again on the "bad news bears"
He will talk incessantly about gains from 2003.
Gotta love a showman!"
-- posted by honeyoneohone
» honeyoneohone - Why is the-Brink Bullish? Energy Stocks and Inflation
.Anybody see any valid reason, besides blind faith, to believe Brinker is correct to be so bullish? Anybody think he will bash the "bad news bears" this weekend.
Question: "Has anyone seen the calculations of what the market would be doing YTD sans energy stocks?"__Will L.
The following reply written by pen-name "force_majuere"...
"Mr. XXXXXX:This is not exactly what you asked for, but here is a YTD (as of 10/10/05) return comparison based on AMEX SPDR Sector Groups.
YTD Positive Returns:
Energy = 37.58%
Utility = 18.52%
Healthcare = 4.71%
Consumer Staples = 2.02%YTD Negative Returns:
Industrials = (-1.85%)
Financials = (-1.91%)
Technology = (-2.89%)
Materials = (-7.76%)
Consumer Discretionary = (-8.40%)EC: Looking at the Materials and Consumer Discretionary numbers leads me to believe that Bob may be wrong as regards his thesis that the cost of energy is non-inflationary."
______________________________________________
And some excellent questions and comments by Will L. :
"Yikes, that's not a real pretty picture for a robust bull market that Brinker would have you believe is underway.Energy stocks have begun to correct lately along with Utilities. I assume utilities are correcting because they fear rising interest rates.
Do those of you that are as bullish as Brinker right now believe that there is soon to be a reversal of these groups and to use Gore-speak, what has been down all year will be up and what has been up all year will be down from here?
If so why do you feel that way? What will be the catalyst for change?
Looking at Brinker's rhetoric, do any of you see why someone who was bearish on the market this year is stupid and to be ridiculed like Brinker does? If so please explain your reasoning.
I would like to hear the bullish case--I actually have considered a couple points that make me a lot less bearish than many--but those of you who are extremely optimisitc like Brinker, I would appreciate your thoughts.
I know that neither Brinker or I can predict the market with enough success to warrant vast changes in a portfolio, but it is entertaining to guess like we all including Brinker do."
-- posted by honeyoneohone
» honeyoneohone - The Bobmeister's Seven Steps to Critical Mass
.One has to agree with most of the wisdom in the following piece.
An interesting factoid: You will see that in the last paragraph Brinker is reported to have said that a "worst case scenario" for a return to the market would be 2002.
Now with the benefit of hindsight (which is seldom wrong), we can see that he was rather close. He missed it by about six months, but only because he didn't recognize it and/or believe his own words. The bottom was put in October 2002, but he called it in March 2003.
As some of you "old-timers" from the "Brinker Discussion Thread" may remember, Kirk actually called the bottom. And amazingly, Will L. predicted when Brinker would return to the market--almost to the day.
http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...
Author: Kirk
Discussion: Bob Brinker - Free Discussion Site 7
Date: April 16, 2000 6:15 AM
Subject: Redondo Beach summary - 7 milestones to critical massSent to me via email:
BB Live in Redondo Beach summary.Described 7 milestones to critical mass.
1. Quantum Leap thinking. Look years ahead, not days, weeks, months.
Plan for future family needs. Take a proactive approach.2. Pay yourself first then save 10% (minimum), invest long term.
3. Maximize use of tax deferred accounts.
4. Reinvest dividends and interest. The "magic of compounding".
5. Avoid sharks. Use only high quality investments. No speculating,
no margin, no junk bonds etc.6. Use no load mutual funds.
7. Triple diversification.
a)Diversify by asset class, stocks, bonds, notes, real estate.
b)Diversify within asset class, variety of sectors, stocks.
c)Diversify by time, dollar cost averaging.
In general he does not see buying oppoRtunities at this time. Could be a while for the current situation to stabilize, but reserves the right to change his recommendation. Timing model does not predict a buy signal at the moment. Best case return to market by fall 2000, concerned it could take until 2001. Worst case 2002. Historically election off years have been good for market. When the time comes he expects to go straight back into market.
-- posted by honeyoneohone
» SteveT - Re: The Bobmeister's Seven Steps to Critical Mass
In response to The Bobmeister's Seven Steps to Critical Mass posted by honeyoneohone:"5. Avoid sharks. Use only high quality investments. No speculating, no margin, no junk bonds etc.”
Honey, did you know shortly after jumping back into the stock market with what bob had left following the QQQQ disaster bob started recommending for his fixed income portfolio a 15% weighting in Vanguard High-Yield Corporate (VWEHX)? The latest copy I have still to this day has the same 15% weighting in the “junk bond fund”. I wouldn’t blame those having a hard time following bob’s advise, seems he can’t either.
-- posted by SteveT
» honeyoneohone - Re: Re: The Bobmeister's Seven Steps to Critical Mass
In response to Re: The Bobmeister's Seven Steps to Critical Mass posted by SteveT:.
No, I didn't know that, Steve. I was aware that he seemed to start talking "favorably" about owning a small portion of High-Yield Bond Funds, which he formerly called "junk bond funds," about the same time that a couple of them began advertising on his radio program.
I remember in years past that he said to avoid them like the plague. Advice that I never took because I have made good money owning them (with some buying and selling along the way).
-- posted by honeyoneohone
» honeyoneohone - Brinker's Newsletter Number One? With Whom?
.Pen name, "lumbar" tells about his personal experience with "Marketimer." It seems that the newsletter is being touted as "number one" with various rating services.
I'd be interested in hearing from anybody who knows of a reliable "rating service" that rates Marketimer as "number one."
lumbar 9/26/2005 5:12:54 PM"I don't know if this has any interest to anyone here, but I was a subscriber to the newsletter for many years. Last year I finally let it run out without renewing. Like many here, I just found that there wasn't enough value either on Market timing or recommendations, and I was one of those badly burned in the QQQQ event.
Imagine my surprise to pick up my mail today finding a solicitation for the Brinker Marketimer, with the 'we're number one!' proclamations from the various rating services.
I see the newsletter now is based in Colorado rather than New York, but otherwise it's still $185 for the year.
Thanks, I'll pass."
-- posted by honeyoneohone
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