Honey's Brinker Beehive--Not a Fan Club
- honeyoneohone
- Kirk
- honeyoneohone
- honeyoneohone
- mrs1123
- honeyoneohone
- allancoleman
- Kirk
- bob90245
- mrs1123
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» honeyoneohone - Bob Brinker: "Outliers or Outliars"???
.What is Bob Brinker up to with his new word? Will L. says it may just be business as usual for daBrink.
"Math asked me a while back if I thought Brinker would make a call anytime soon. I, of course, had been asking for quite a while if the bots thought Brinker would go totally to cash during the period that he referred to as the duration he claims for cyclical bull markets (1 to 3 years--note he changed that from 6 months to two years on his website glossary of terms after I pointed out his CTR with the QQQs that he kept extending and confusing people between duration and time for an event to begin was overlapping his cyclical bull crap).I told Math that I did not believe Brinker would likely make any move for a long time. He had a call he can brag on. Brinker knows he is wrong as often as right when removing money from the market.
He has only admitted to being bearish at the time of removing money one time in his history--1988 and he was wrong.
In 2000 Brinker claimed he was not bearish and would argue with anyone who described him that way. He was hedging and unsure is the only way to describe his rhetoric. He was obviously clueless to the actual turn of events as leaving a third of the monies in the market and adding up to another third in the worst sector and then riding that all the way down.
So Brinker used the beginning of the gulf war to get in the market near the lows, as I predicted he would. It turned out to be a good entry level--though about 25% higher than if he would have chosen the Oct 2000 low on his favorite and most overweighted investment--the QQQQs.
Leaving aside what I believe is total crock of crap that is the timing model scam (Brinker is a stock market almanac type of timer and flies by the seat of his pants-doing lots of doublespeak and making few straight up calls(they by nature will be 50% correct and with spin and extended timeframes, barring a disaster in the opposite direction Brinker can keep bsing--he thus holds on and yammers, claiming precision and a meaningful scientific approach that does not exist.
You noted he tried this with the QQQs. After it went very badly--he yammered and stalled hoping to get bailed out. In Aug 98 he made that "benchmark low buy signal" of 8650 a big deal....then the market fell and he stammered and yammered blaming exogenous events--the market bailed him out as it fell under 7500 and he made another call --which he talked about for years and omitted the 8650 call just a few weeks earlier.
So Brinker has learned that this timing is a bitch. The more calls you make and the more understandable you speak, the more likely you are to be exposed as a purveyor of crap.
Thus we have the Brinker of "outliers" or is that "outliars"?
Brinker makes up a lexicon to fit the market and sell his advice as correct. It is rather like the doctor touching up the x-rays rather than dealing with the pathology.
To be continued"
-- posted by honeyoneohone
» Kirk - RE: Bob Brinker: "Outliers or Outliars"???
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In response to Bob Brinker: "Outliers or Outliars"??? posted by honeyoneohone:
Thus we have the Brinker of "outliers" or is that "outliars"?
Brinker, with his deadline for this particular call of his "cyclical bull market" fast approaching, I thought would perhaps just simply drop the "cyclical bull"crap. There is much precedent. Ever hear Brinker mention "Counter trend rallies" in the last couple years? MOABO?
FWIW, outliar is spelled “outlier” and it is a term from statistics that means
“A value far from most others in a set of data“such as “Outliers make statistical analyses difficult” (Harvey Motulsky).
See outlier
To me, a simple reaction to an outlier is “oops!”
But the bottom line is when one says something is an “outlier” he is admitting it was not what he predicted. For Brinker’s case, if he wanted to be honest, then he could say:
“The Exogenous event of the 9/11 attack drove the market much lower than we anticipated, hence our massive QQQQ losses. Furthermore the recovery in 2003 and correction in the over valued technology sector that occurred in 2004 and 2005 served to replace the cyclical bear we were predicting to occur one to three years after the October 2002 bottom. We now believe we are in what we had expected to be the second cyclical bull market that may or may not be part of a new secular bull market.”
Of course, Brinker really doesn’t like to admit he was wrong so he finds new words to deliberately obfuscate.
See obfuscate
As of 12/31/05 the Total Return for "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" since 12/31/98 is Up 197% while the S&P500 only up 12%!!! & NASDAQ only up 1%!!! (my explore portfolio beta is about 1.5)
-- posted by Kirk
» honeyoneohone - RE: Bob Brinker: "Outliers or Outliars"???
In response to RE: Bob Brinker: "Outliers or Outliars"??? posted by Kirk:.
Thanks for that info, Kirk.
With all due respect, Will and I spelled "outlier" correctly. For those who might think as you did--the word "Outliar" is intended to be a pun...
-- posted by honeyoneohone
» honeyoneohone - "Liars, Liars and Outliers"
In response to Bob Brinker: "Outliers or Outliars"??? posted by honeyoneohone:.
Author: Will L.
So according to accounts, Brinker is going to call this particular "cyclical bull market" an "outlier". In keeping with my take that Brinker is a stock market almanac type of timer--he uses the history of market events--actually only a very small handfull of events which a statistician might refer to as "liars, liars and outliers".Anyway, Brinker, as I told Math is not about to make any call soon and take a chance that he will have to explain a bad call instead of brag on a good one. Brinker is all about marketing (market timing). He thinks there is little chance in the market retracing most of the gains from the 800 level. So his downside is easier covered by yammering and blaming "exogenous events".
There is slightly better than a 50% chance that the market will go up--if it does, he doesn't even have to spin--just brag.
By calling this market an "outlier" he can hype the possibility that he might change his call--don't bet on that happening before he retires. He would have to go to 100% cash and be right--something I'm betting Brinker will be reticent to attempt anytime soon.
It's a game to sell newsletters, imo. Brinker could be quite forthright if it were not so. Doublespeak and gobblygook is his stock-and-trade. This works best when long time frames are involved with few calls being made.
Some claim Brinker's timing model not only exists but is the only one in history one should trust. Of course some believe Elvis is alive.
I'm amazed at the confluence of stock market almanac history, and an assortment of technical and fundamental indicators that Brinker uses being shrouded in some mysticism by his believers, and thinking they would be any more accurate than other forecasts. If there was merit there, many things would follow.
1) Brinker would not have been "bearish" during the period 88 through 91. There was no bear
2) Brinker would not have left over a third in the market and added up to another third in QQQs in the 80s and rode both positions all the way down to the bottom of the bear--under 20 on the Qs.
3) Brinker would not have argued that he was "NOT BEARISH" and now flip flopped is that "OUTLYING"??
4) Brinker's language of deception would be totally unnecessary.
5) There would be no reason for a conservative asset allocation like Brinker promotes. One would simply be in stocks when Brinker's valid timing model was bullish and out of stocks when it was bearish.
6) There would be no reason to have subscribers and do a radio-telethon to sell subscriptions to a rag (Marketimer), giving the valid stock market timing advice---Brinker would be wealthy beyond George Soros, Warren Buffet combined.
Now we can all add "outliers" to the Brinker vocabulary. Anybody know if there is a word "outliar"?"
-- posted by honeyoneohone
» mrs1123 - On Board the Starship Moneytalk
In response to On Board the Starship Moneytalk posted by honeyoneohone:"are you not going to wait until Brinker gives a "sell signal?"
That is a real problem for me. The radio station moved Bob's show again to a time when I can't pick up the signal. I can't really depend on getting Bob's call should it come.
I can afford to wait now and watch. The gains I made since December 31, 2005 have dropped by 40%. I probably should have sold all in my IRA and moved to cash.
On Yahoo recently there was a poll or question that asked, what do you think that people who have a million dollars feel the market will do going foward. If I remember correctly 65% of the "rich" people thought the market would be mildly bullish going forward. I thought that too at the first of the year. But I completely forgot about the very frequent warnings that 2006 would be very bad.
For now I can fight off any panic and just watch. If my profits go down to where they were on December 31 I will consider if I should leave the market. But should the market get that low it is likely to have an upswing. I am trying to be fluid now and get a sense of where the market is heading. I would rather pay taxes on the gains made last year than see them vanish.
Maybe somebody who heard Bob today, if he was on, can post his comments made at the top of the show.
-- posted by mrs1123
» honeyoneohone - On Board the Starship Moneytalk
In response to On Board the Starship Moneytalk posted by mrs1123:.
Brinker wasn't on today, Mrs1123. I listened to a few minutes of Terry Savage, but then was busy elsewhere.
Do you follow any of Brinker's Marketimer Model Portfolios? Or do you just use some of his recommended mutual funds? How about any of his individual stock picks, such as: MSFT or VOD?
Did you get in on the big run-up in gold? Brinker has never recommended owning gold (beyond a very small amount to act as a possible hedge if one is paranoid), which means he missed out on a lot of gains over the past five years. He also missed out on a lot of gains in Google! Wow! Google was a four-bagger before the latest pullback.
I have invested in DVY for some time now (not because he recommended it--I do my own stock-picking), and it's done very well. I like the fact that it pays a nice dividend. I also like that it is widely traded, which makes it easy to jump ship.
I agree that it is better to pay taxes than to lose gains. Are you aware that Brinker is very bullish right now? He has actually coined a new word to explain why his so-called, "cyclical bull" market, is continuing beyond what he previously predicted. He calls it an "outlier."
I think you would enjoy reading Will's writings about Brinker's "outlier" that I have posted above.
-- posted by honeyoneohone
» allancoleman - On Board the Starship Moneytalk
In response to On Board the Starship Moneytalk posted by mrs1123:in case you missed the posts this week mrs123 , bob brinker is not on this weekend . Terry Savage is covering for bob and Terry Savage does not make market comments or timing signals . so you're on your own for market advice .
rumor is Larry Kudlow may fill in for bob next weekend . so it may be awhile til we hear bob's market comments again .
good luck on your market timing calls . i got out toward end of december and the overall market is lower now than when i got out so feel good about sitting in money markets for now . all three money market's are paying over 4% . .
-- posted by allancoleman
» Kirk - On Board the Starship Moneytalk
In response to On Board the Starship Moneytalk posted by mrs1123:honeyoneohone: "are you not going to wait until Brinker gives a "sell signal?"mrs1123: That is a real problem for me. The radio station moved Bob's show again to a time when I can't pick up the signal. I can't really depend on getting Bob's call should it come.
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-- posted by Kirk
» bob90245 - Re: On Board the Starship Moneytalk
In response to On Board the Starship Moneytalk posted by mrs1123:That is a real problem for me. The radio station moved Bob's show again to a time when I can't pick up the signal. I can't really depend on getting Bob's call should it come."are you not going to wait until Brinker gives a "sell signal?"
Just so you will know, if you monitor the Bob Brinker message board here at Suite 101 (and maybe even honey's board), there is a good chance that you will know whether Brinker has given a "sell signal". There are lots of "Brinker watchers" here. So one or more would post the big news.
Remember Brinker's "buy signal" on March 11, 2003? It was written up two days later at cbsmarketwatch.com. Click HERE. This was even before Brinker first announced his "buy signal" on his weekend radio show!
So there is a good possiblity that the news of Brinker's "sell signal" will be known both on the internet and here on this website very soon following the initial announcement to subscribers.
-- posted by bob90245
» mrs1123 - On Board the Starship Moneytalk
In response to On Board the Starship Moneytalk posted by honeyoneohone:I am only in Fidelity Funds and American Century Funds. I never bothered following any of Bob's portfolios. I did go into MSFT way back and did make some money in it. But even then I believe Bob was saying MSFT was only a hold.
I have made some money in individual stocks. But even though I made some good money I often find what I call fraud connected to individual stock recommendations. If you don't have somebody saying to buy a stock while they are selling it we hear all too often about somebody being investigated within a company for fraud.
In this bear market it is all too easy to purchase at the wrong time. I have made money by purchasing stocks at their low. But too I have gut stuck holding what I thought was a good company by buying too close to the top. It is too easy to buy a stock early and see it fall even lower. I've seen too often the lucky rich people making $3 per share while I am struggling to break even on the same stock.
About the only way it seems to make money on individual stocks is too follow a whole group of them and really look for historic lows and buy in. I didn't do that with McDonalds at $13 and saw it go to $26.
I missed the gold completely. A long time ago I was in a gold fund and it was flat flat flat. I know some people that are always pushing gold because they are conspiracy nuts and feel negative about everything. In 2005 I had gains in my shares ranging from 6% to over 20% so I wasn't feeling as negative as some. Also I saw Warren Buffett losing money betting against the dollar. As gold was rising I thought about buying into a gold fund but I thought it was too near the top and thought the bubble would burst because that is how my timing usually works. But gold went higher.
I guess I was stupid on Google. I looked at Google but thought it was smoke and mirrors like so many stocks and companies that had no earnings during the internet bubble. During the internet bubble I couldn't make myself buy into companies that only went up on the greater fool theory. I was too worried about Google tanking and felt it was overpriced at $118.00. I guess I need to just put aside my fears and try to make money off the suckers who will buy anything no matter how improbable it is.
No I wasn't aware that Bob B. was very bullish. I sure don't feel that way. But what gives me hope is seeing the 50 and 100 point DOW run ups after the dips.
"outlier" hmm, does that mean that Bob can't explain what is happening?
Yes I will have to go back and look at Will's writings and other posts.
-- posted by mrs1123
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