Honey's Brinker Beehive--Not a Fan Club

Top 37. Oct 10, 2005 8:58 AM

» honeyoneohone - Like Steriods to Baseball--Off the Record

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Some may wonder why people are still talking about Brinker's QQQQ and TEFQX (B2B) disasters. Perhaps it is because he puts so much effort into covering it all up by keeping it off the record while it is actually ongoing.

Here is a very eloquent explanation written by Kirk Lindstrom:

"QQQQ and TEFQX are to Bob Brinker as Steroids are to Baseball
""I can't help but wonder how many years must pass before you guys drop this obsession.""
When will people stop talking about the South Sea Bubble or Tulip Manina?
Here we had a national figure on radio who spoke to a, for the most part, CONSERVATIVE INVESTMENT audience. At the VERY PEAK of the mania, this "guru" recommended in his Feb 2000 newsletter that his more agressive followers put 5% of their portfolio into the Business-to-business internet mutual fund called TEFQX. This was eventually placed on a "HOLD" where it remains an open recommendation even after he ended coverage of it in his newsletter. I believe the fund remains down over 80%. He did this "off the books" despite a full page of his 8 page newsletter in Feb. 2000 devoted to this fund at the very peak.
This very same guru recommended people put up to a full THIRD of their investment assets into the Nasdaq100 when it was as high as $87. That investment sunk to a low of $19 before recovering to its current price of $39, a full 55% below its peak value where he was recommending it. He has never closed out this trade, but when caught by surprise, he says "we made a mistake" and changes the subject.
For a national talk show host to make these sorts of blunders is not new. What is new is he managed to do them and keep the results off his official record. Hulbert gives him an asterisk much like baseball players get that say the season is longer now or they admit they took performance enhancing drugs to break the records so their records are tainted.
Do you think anyone in baseball will forget that Ruth's record was broken with the aid of steroids? If no, then why would you expect anyone to forget another national figure's tainted investment record?"

-- posted by honeyoneohone

Top 38. Oct 10, 2005 9:14 AM

» Kirk - Re: Like Steriods to Baseball--Off the Record

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In response to Like Steriods to Baseball--Off the Record posted by honeyoneohone:

You saved that! I'm honored. smile

Someone with far more knowledge about baseball than I pointed out to me that Roger Marris actually broke Ruth's single season home run record which was later broken by Mark McGuire whom I believe now admits took steroids. Marris probably didn't even know what a steroid was.

The current record holder is Barry Bonds of the San Francisco Giants whom has some association with steroids and a longer season.

This page lists the record for the top 100
http://www.baseball-almanac.com/hitting/...
and states "Fast Facts

Babe Ruth was ranked first overall for thirty-four (34) year, Roger Maris was ranked first thirty-seven (37) years, and Mark McGwire stayed on top only three (3) years before Barry Bonds dethroned him."

Maybe tomorrow I'll post that "QQQQ update" here if you want me to.

-- posted by Kirk

Top 39. Oct 10, 2005 9:52 AM

» honeyoneohone - Re: Re: Like Steriods to Baseball--Off the Record

In response to Re: Like Steriods to Baseball--Off the Record posted by Kirk:

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Interesting baseball facts...it hardly seems fair for records to be broken by men who have the "advantage" of using drugs to aid them...

I would be delighted for you to post the QQQQ update here for the convenience of all who are interested in the outcome of the "game." smile

-- posted by honeyoneohone

Top 40. Oct 10, 2005 9:57 AM

» honeyoneohone - "NOONE"

In response to Very interesting posted by Chgo:

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How nice to see you again, Chgobob. Interesting that you would use the word "NOONE." Even though Bob Brinker writes quite well, using that word is one mistake that he would make occasionally when he posted as "donlane/mistertopes." Perhaps he just made up the word and forgot to patent it. smile

Do visit me again--it's good to see old friends.

-- posted by honeyoneohone

Top 41. Oct 10, 2005 4:06 PM

» honeyoneohone - Another Down Day in the Brink's Cyclical Bull Market

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After having taken a few hours off for lunch and "girl-talk" today, when I returned home, I was sure disappointed to see the market turned around and headed south again.

It started me wondering if the Brink might be feeling the pain just a little, too.

Wonder how many others are starting to have a little doubt about his ability to predict market direction--within a country mile, that is.

This little treatise by Will L. may hint at an answer about what the Brink cannot predict. smile

"Your post brings up the folly of Brinker's game of claiming he can predict with enough certainty the level of the stock market in a given time frame to move your money into or out of the market.
Brinker cannot tell us within 1% what interest rates will be a year from now. Brinker cannot tell us whether the fed will continue to raise until they hit 4% , 5% or 6%.
Brinker cannot tell you if the Fed will reverse course on a dime and we will be looking at 2% Fed funds rates in a year.
Brinker can't tell you if inflation will be running at less than 2% or more than 4% a year out.
Brinker can't tell you if oil prices will be 40.00 or 90.00/brl.
Brinker can't tell you if unemployment will be 4% or 7%.
Brinker can't tell you if S&P profits will be increasing or static two quarters from now.
Brinker can't tell you if the new hurricane will take Katrina's path and heap more devastation on the same area requiring even more national treasure to repair and more damage to our energy infrastructure.
Brinker can't tell you how the deal in Iraq is going to end and if there is going to be an overthrow of "moderate" arab governments leading to oil embargos etc.
Brinker can't predict the next terrorist attack and the financial consequences.
Brinker cannot predict the next election and the economic and tax policies that will rile or soothe wall street.
Brinker cannot predict what government restrictions/interference and juries will do to the cost of health care and if it will be the straw that broke the nation's economic back.
You see if Brinker can't tell you what interest rates are going to do in a finite period of time....to claim that he is going to predict with the degree of certainty one would need to act responsibly, the level of the stockmarket is total BullXXXX.
Bob Brinker knows that...and that's why he never cared for people with some logic."

-- posted by honeyoneohone

Top 42. Oct 11, 2005 9:20 AM

» honeyoneohone - Is the Brink Becoming Obsolete?

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In this interesting discussion about the quality of Brinker's show last Sunday, one can see that there is a deterioration in the caliber of callers that he allows on the air, and the subject matter is gradually being directed away from any serious talk about the stock market.

Pen name, "waitinformoaba" said:

"I flipped on Brinker Sunday while I was in the car. Had a caller that sounded to be around 100 yrs old touting the benefits of building circular airport runways around oil refineries. Bob, you should be ashamed taking advantage of people like this. Circular runways....sheesh. Sounds like you got a ripe one there Bob. Quick, hook 'em.""

Will L. replied:

"You have to be kidding? If not, why not also put maybe a firecracker stand between the refinery and the race track of a landing strip? LOL
If true, it does fit right into what I've said for a long time. On the net now NOONE with serious money (other than Ras at 101 and maybe Dan Gibbons, but I think he's become a technical trader) that I know of follow Brinker's advice. The shills and our useful idiot here just yammer and most probably don't follow his advice or do so in tiny amounts due to knowing they can't trust him.
It wasn't always that way. Once there were serious (not as bright as they thought then) investors swallowing Brinker's jive. Math can tell you how the assembled multitudes at SI would fawn over who would get the next missive from Brinker first...like it was tablets coming down from the mountain. LOL
Now all of those guys have moved on. They don't even want to hear the word Brinker anymore. Even Justa who started several threads and worked as Brinker's hatchman and Liar in cheif on Brinker's site...has nothing to say about brinker and seems to do the opposite when it comes to investing these days.
On the radio in those heady days for the Brink, you would hear some pretty sharp guys asking questions about the market and hedging and betas, and P/Es etc. These days it's always a goober (Bob should I pay off my trailer or buy a lotto ticket?) or a geezer (Bob don't you think we are going to have a depression like back in the 30s and if so don't it make sense to put my money under the mattress?).
Let me say that his goobers and geezers are equally fine human beings as the lot that had more money and more investment savvy.
However it tells you a great deal about his target audience these days when you hear calls like "Bob let's put circular airport runways around oil refineries." Maybe there is a brainstorming session on Friday afternoon for questions to call in to Moneytalk from the old folks home?"

-- posted by honeyoneohone

Top 43. Oct 11, 2005 1:07 PM

» Kirk - Is It True about Brinker & QQQ?

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In response to Re: Re: Like Steriods to Baseball--Off the Record posted by honeyoneohone:

I would be delighted for you to post the QQQQ update here for the convenience of all who are interested in the outcome of the "game."

How can I ignore such a polite request. smile

This is a repost. I've kept the answer on file because stories often evolve over time so it is good to have a baseline reply on file that corrects misconceptions.

In response to message posted by Will_L:

Brinker's biggest bet ever was to put one third of a portfolio into QQQs when they were trading at 83 bucks. They are now trading in the low 30s but the dishonest shmuck claims to have purchased the only QQQs in his portfolios in the mid 20s. It's a SCAM

Before someone asks if what you posted is true, I’ll repost my answer to Della that explained this in detail. Thus, anyone new to this forum via search engines will be up to speed on the full story.

Kirk

Is It True about Brinker & QQQ?
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In response to message posted by DellaO:

One point needs to be made.. The “QQQ disaster” was a whopper but it was not Brinker’s biggest mistake by a long shot. Brinker’s “biggest bet” was to go to 100% cash in 1988 after the 1987 market crash. He did not get back to fully invested until 1991. Unless you use margin or buy leveraged funds, it is impossible to make a larger “bet” than to go from 100% invested to 100% cash. He also gets credit for moving 60% out of the market in 2000 that worked out well until the QQQ fiasco. See MathJunkie’s Brinker Allocation History for full details.

Now to your question:

Is it true that Brinker effectively covered up his recommendation to buy QQQ "Immediately" in the $83 range?

Yes. Here is a copy of the letter he mailed to subscribers in October of 2000.
Brinker MT Act Immediately Bulletin
Followed a few days later by a letter to his “BJ Group” managed accounts with the date of the letter, October 19, 2000, corresponding to the date when QQQ hit $87:
BJ Group Nasdaq100 Memo

Is it true that after QQQ dropped over 70% he relegated them to a hold and the trade disappeared from his newsletter?

Yes. Here is a summary of the details: QQQ update

Note QQQ remains below his “Hold” level even after huge gains from the bottom.

Is it true that he never included this huge loss in any of his three portfolios?

Yes, Mark Hulbert was fooled by the advice as explained by Peter Brimelow.
2002 0815 Brimelow - Bugging Bob Brinker http://tinyurl.com/4kb1

In a special bulletin, he suggested Nasdaq 100 Trust (QQQ: news, chart, profile), the Nasdaq 100 exchange-trade fund on the American Stock Exchange.
But it did not appear in the detailed model portfolio published, as always, in the next month's letter. So Mark promptly sold out the QQQ position and no longer counted it.

Hulbert explains it in his footnote #9

Hulbert Footnote #9 "In late 2000, Brinker forecasted a several-month bear market rally and recommended an investment in the NASDAQ 100 Index—a trade that has proven to be quite unprofitable. However, because Brinker at the time of making this forecast chose not to make this trade part of his model portfolios, his HFD record has not suffered as a result."

The QQQ update shows how Bob Brinker told his subscribers to buy, month after month after month, for the rally that was yet to come from November 2000 in the $80s until June 2001 at $46 where he put QQQ on HOLD for "future recovery". His risky advice was “off the books” hence the terrible results are not reflected in his official records.

<img src=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Sharp... width=520 height=301>
Brinker on QQQ: Buy at $83 ; Hold at $46 ;
He later added them to his model portfolios in March 2003
But Still well below the “Hide at $46” level

One more article worth reading: The Bob Brinker brawl: Round 2 which concludes with good advice:

Do not, repeat -- NOT -- gamble the rent money, much less the retirement money, on any market timer's recommendations. Only speculate with money you can afford to lose.

and this comment about someone who took the QQQ advice:

If there are many more stories like my poor friend from Rochester, we're going to see massive re-regulation of the financial markets -- a repeat of the 1930s.

If you have any doubts of what I’ve posted, then feel free to ask questions in our Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site.

We ALL have bad stock picks. The problem for Brinker is he gave the advice for a "counter trend rally" then he let it turn into a long term investment for a huge loss that is not recorded on his official newsletter record.

Fortunately for us practitioners of due diligence, there is a record of his results at the money management company Brinker advertises in his newsletter. Bob Brinker and Sheldon Jacobs used to own the “BJ Group.” They sold it and now Brinker advises them on asset allocation. More info on BJ Group - GE Private Asset Management.

These results

Click for a full sized image
<img src=http://www.suite101.com/files/mysites/Brinker/BJG_P1.jpg width=520 height=486>

clearly show the effects of his QQQ advice on his portfolio. It did no better than the appropriate buy and hold index benchmarks since the market peaked in early 2000!

"If all else fails, immortality can always be assured by spectacular error."
--John Kenneth Galbraith, American economist, diplomat & author
"Yes, we could do that. But it would be wrong."."
-- Richard Nixon, on covering up Watergate

-- posted by Kirk

Top 44. Oct 11, 2005 3:59 PM

» Chgo - Re: "NOONE"

In response to "NOONE" posted by honeyoneohone:

Did donlane or mistertopes ever use the word "firstly"?

-- posted by Chgo

http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...

Top 45. Oct 11, 2005 5:14 PM

» honeyoneohone - "NOONE" & UTEK a Rare Diamond

In response to Re: "NOONE" posted by Chgo:

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I will investigate and see if I can find the answer to your question.

In the meantime, just for amusement, here is a post where Brinker, posting as "donlane/mistertopes, used the word "NOONE" while he touted UTEK.

To:Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (1210)
From: mister topes Tuesday, Aug 26, 1997 11:57 PM
Respond to of 3554

Your post is outstanding. This is clearly why Mr. Z. was doing when he made this transfer to the trust. Noone has any evidence that any of these shares have been sold, and for that matter they may not be sold all or in part for years. Also, gift giving and estate planning are obvious goals of any CEO in his late fifties who is trying to do the right thing. As you point out, this has absolutely nothing to do with the CEO's opinion of the company. Obviously the CEO knows full well the powerful dynamics of UTEK's new product portfolio. I would expect we may be hearing some good things about company prospects at the upcoming Mother of all Tech Conferences at Montgomery Securities in September. Right now UTEK looks as pretty as a rare diamond.

-- posted by honeyoneohone