Honey's Brinker Beehive--Not a Fan Club

Top 27. Oct 7, 2005 8:28 AM

» Kirk - Re: Huh? Clarification on what a BLOG means

.
In response to Huh? posted by Thruhiker:

In honeyoneohone's first post here, she said this is a "blog" which means she isn't asking for discussion as much as she is presenting her thoughts for others to ponder. She is free to turn it into a discussion forum, but she doesn't have to. We're trying to offer writers more ways to use the site and express themselves.

"Will" posts at a "Competing site" under a different name so I asked Honey to not post links to his original posts since we do not have a link exchange where they send us traffic. Some posts are from there. He also posted at a third site under a third name. As long as "Will" doesn't complain to Honey and since his posts are in the "public domain" I don't see any problem with Honey editing them to post here to make her point. "Will" could easily be a stage name for all we know.

If you would like your own forum here to post a different view or even post daily about a completely different topic that interests you, then I can give you a forum here to do that after you send me an email for instructions, etc. My requirements to have a forum here are the same as the San Jose Mercury requires for getting a "Letter to the Editor" published so anyone can apply. The San Jose Mercury won’t let you advertise for the LA Times without paying for an ad so we follow the same rule here, you can’t use your “blog” to advertise or take traffic from our site. The whole idea is we give people a free place to have a blog where others come to read it.

Have you seen JB's Juicy Bits and Rasputin's Islam forums? These are two other new forums here. JB and Rasputin encourage discussion on their topics.

-- posted by Kirk

Top 28. Oct 7, 2005 8:43 AM

» honeyoneohone - Here Are the Facts About This Thread

In response to Huh? posted by Thruhiker:

.
Thank you for your input about your opinion of Brinker, Thruhiker.

Kirk covered some of the answer to your questions, but I would like to expound:

This thread was completely my own idea. Will had nothing to do with it. Indeed, he is NOT hiding behind anything--he is most gracious to allow me to re-post his work here. I simply lift his writings from other websites.

I am a fan of Will's, and appreciate the truth that he writes about Bob Brinker. I decided that I wanted to archive some of his posts so that they would not be forever lost in the hundreds of thousands of posts on other websites.

Will has not sent me anything to post. Every one of them are, and will be, pulled from other websites.

There is no reason why I should post the links back to them because Will knows that I can be trusted to not plagiarize or attribute anything to him that he didn't write.

Additionally, Kirk has asked not to link to other sites. He has explained the reason for that.

As time goes on, I will probably post things that other people have written occasionally too.

If you would care to expound on why you came to believe that Brinker is a "radio shill," I would sure welcome you to post it here.

-- posted by honeyoneohone

Top 29. Oct 7, 2005 9:52 AM

» honeyoneohone - Is Brinker Still Bullish? Is He Right?

.
The answer to the first question is yes, but the answer to the second question remains to be seen.

Whether or not Brinker looks down his nose at "bad news bears" this weekend has a lot to do with what the market closes at today.

Will L. chats about Brinker and current market conditions:

"Yeah Bob is opinionated, that's for sure. I see the Dallas Fed chief who had thought we were in the 8th inning of interest rate increases has went back a few innings and had some hawkish statement suggesting more tightening.
One of the problems with Brinker is that whether gambling on Super bowls in many casinos in Vegas or sticking with his market predictions, he has a hard time admitting defeat.
He will blame the weather, the team or the foolish experts, that he sees as a conspiracy aligned against him.
I will recall Brinker cheering on Greenspan and actually predicting and calling for more rate hikes than Greenspan ultimately made in 2000. Later Brinker blamed Greenspan for going too far with those raises.
At any rate I understand Brinker has been railing against the "bad news bears" in form reminiscient of the egotistical big mouth on the radio of old and the alias Brinker used on the internet Don Lane.
I will be curious to hear from those of you who listen to Brinker's insufferable 6 hrs this weekend if Brinker plays the "bad news bears" game this weekend?
I believe that for the year now we are about flat, is that not correct? I am one who does not believe one can outguess the market and over the long haul I am generally optimistic, but why would a bear be "dumber" that a bull in a flat market? I believe the bear would be pocketing some nice gains on short term instruments while the bull would not.
Brinker seems to want to look back at old gains and whine about the "bad news bears" as though we are currently in a roaring bull market. Maybe we are and maybe (hopefully the market is like a coiled spring) ....but I wouldn't look to Brinker as someone to trust to tell you what is going to happen.
I recall a post recently bragging on Brinker and saying that he forecast this pullback and it will be the trigger for his buying opportunity. Well remember it is the same Brinker who was sure QQQQs were a great buy for 20% or more gains in the 80s back in 2000. Then in November the QQQQs were a great buy in the low 70s. In December it was still a great buy as they fell further. By early 2001 Brinker was claiming that the QQQQs in the 50s were poised for a 50% gain in a few months...... until finally in disgrace he shut up and hid the call by including some QQQQs in every portfolio under 25.00 in March 2003.
So all of you Brinker followers. My chart looks like the market is flat since January 1. Many who think they can predict the market like your guru have went bearish during this year. Why if they are making more money than Brinker with no downside risk, are they dumb and Brinker smart in a flat market? I don't get it. If the market was barreling along at breakneck speed with a temporary pullback I could see making fun of those who took a bearish stance if you were bullish. However that's not the case. Perhaps Brinker is depending on another "end of year rally". Last year he got one. In 2000--he got slaughtered."

-- posted by honeyoneohone

Top 30. Oct 7, 2005 10:18 AM

» Thruhiker - Re: Here Are the Facts About This Thread

In response to Here Are the Facts About This Thread posted by honeyoneohone:

Thanks Kirk and Honey101 for the clarifications.

-- posted by Thruhiker

http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...

Top 31. Oct 7, 2005 8:07 PM

» honeyoneohone - Brinker Good "Weather Barometer"

.
When one looks just beneath the surface of Brinker's call record since January 2000, a totally different picture emerges from the one that is portrayed on his radio program.

Al in SJ reminds us of some major errors that Brinker committed:

"So look at history.....
Jan 2000 -- reduce exposure - expects inflation driven market decline - good call, wrong reason.
Jan 2000 -- cash to money market - missed 3/4 the GNMA's NAV run-up.
Q-call #1 -- zero, got out on dip and missed 20% gain a few weeks later.
Q-call #2 -- disaster.
2002 -- Money market returns have gone to zip. Inflation prediction wrong. GNMA's will give a better return. Two years late on this one.
IT THIS THE TABLE YOU WANT TO BET THE RANCH AT?
Al in SJ"

Al also said the following, which I think is classical and comical. smile

"I stand by my opinion of his track record. Most of it sucks. I will only use him as a weather barometer. You won't know how good or bad it is till it happens."

-- posted by honeyoneohone

Top 32. Oct 8, 2005 8:33 AM

» honeyoneohone - What Will Brinker Do in the Next Two Years?

.
Some may wonder when Brinker will put out a "sell" signal for the stock market. And in what context will he do it.

Will it be called a "cyclical bear" or just an "unfavorable market" with more downside than upside--as he did in 2000.

Much later, after the market had dropped considerably, he became "bearish"--but recall that he never recommended removing all money from the market. The maximum he recommended removing was 65%. What will he do next time? If he is bearish, will he still leave a large portion of money in the market?

Here is some comments by Will L., which might give some pause for thought:

("Is Brinker bullish or bearish right now?")
Well that is a good question. One that I've asked on less civilized, but more active threads about Brinker.
Brinker always claimed that his model was either "bullish or bearish". If it was "bearish" he would be 100% teetotally out of the market. As we know in Jan 2000 made a "tactical asset allocation" and claimed he was "not bearish". He never made any substanial changes in that allocation, except to add a huge amount of QQQs to both conservative and aggressive investor portfolios after that.
My question has been, do you believe that Brinker will make a call in the next couple years? (remember he says this is a cyclical bull market in a secular bear with a lifespan of 1-3 yrs).
If you believe he will make such a call, do you believe he will go to 100% cash? ---only did that once in 88 and was wrong.(EC: That was in 1987-88.)
or make another hedged bet "I am not bearish this is a tactical asset allocation"?
Anyone think that he will use his favorite line of 2000 after the Jan call ever again?
"The way you make money in a bear market is to play the countertrend rallies?" LOL"

-- posted by honeyoneohone

Top 33. Oct 8, 2005 12:22 PM

» Chgo - Very interesting

.
.
This is some very interesting stuff, Honey101. I hope you keep it up. This is worth of getting thousands of hits, and is sure to upset some people, as opposed to NOONE.

-- posted by Chgo

Top 34. Oct 9, 2005 9:02 AM

» honeyoneohone - A Recap of Brinker's Show Yesterday

.
Maybe Brinker needs to start "Brinker's Real Estate Timer." smile

Will L. asked these questions:

"Anybody hear Brinker Today?
1) Did he whine about the "bad news bears"?
2) Did he talk about how much the market is down lately?
3) Did he give YTD numbers of the major indexes?"

A pen name, "basher-5-two" gave these recaps:

"Yes his lordship was in great form today. Bob said the president was moron and an idiot for spending too much money and his latest appointment to the supreme court, the lady who was named the first woman president of the Texas Bar association, is not qualified to be on the court. Bob then went on a rant blaming the president for our open borders with Canada and Mexico. He failed to mention that this is a condition that has existed since the founding of our nation. Then he said that the chairman of the Federal Reserve Board was a moron and an idiot who was making the wrong decisions and should have retired a long time ago. Bob also said that Robert Fisher the head of the Dallas Fed was a moron and an idiot for saying that high energy costs are inflationary. Bob said he doesn't understand economics. Mr. Fisher graduated from Harvard with honors majoring in economics. Bob said that inflation is not a problem and he is still bullish on the stock market. One goober called and said he was a subscriber to Marketimer and the fixed income newsletter. IMHO this caller is a moron and an idiot.
I taped most of the show but not the first few minutes. Bob said nothing about the bad news bears or the market in general. The goober who listens from his condo in Thialand brought up the market and credited Bob for getting him through this years volitility. He was one of severl goobers who claimed to be worth several million dollars. They all seemed to have one thing in common. They made at least half of it from real estate. Bob needs to start Bob Brinker's Real Estate timer. That would give him the trifecta Marketimer,fixed income and real estate."

-- posted by honeyoneohone

Top 35. Oct 9, 2005 1:13 PM

» honeyoneohone - Re: A Recap of Brinker's Show Yesterday

In response to A Recap of Brinker's Show Yesterday posted by honeyoneohone:

.
Here is more of the recap of Brinker's radio program on Saturday, October 8, 2005--written by "basher_5_two."

Brinker needs help from a CPA, and then makes one of his many attempts at demagoguery...

" Bob had a lady caller who wanted to know if if she should buy an electric cloths dryer or one the runs on natural gas. Consumer expert Bob Brinker advised her to buy the electric dryer. Bob feels natural gas is too expensive.
A goober from Las Vegas called and told Bob that he listens to moneytalk on demand when he is at his condo in Thailand. Then he said he owned two houses in Nevada and wanted to know if he could sell both of them and get the $500k tax exemption on both sales. He said he lived in each of them for two of the last five years as his principle residence. Bob gave him an answer we almost never hear on Monerytalk. He said he didn't know and maybe a CPA listening to the show would call in and give the answer.
Later a CPA called in and said the goober should sell the one that was his principle residence first and wait two years to sell the second one and he could get the tax break by doing that.
The last hour was devoted to a book called Over a Barrel. The author is a goober with a grand conspiracy theory that OPEC and the Saudi's have created a phony shortage of oil. Bob tried several times to get the author to bash president Bush. Bob even used the democratic party talking point about the war being for oil. He said we didn't go into Rwanda because they don't have oil.
The author to his credit wanted no part of Brinker's demagoguery. He point out that Rwanda took place before 911. Bob also took a cheap shot at the president on the lack of preparedness in responding to hurricane Katrina. The author clearly wanted no part of that either and said he wasn't going to go there.
Bob has done a total filp flop on this president. Last year he said this is the most efficient Whitehouse he has seen in the last 20 years."

-- posted by honeyoneohone