Retire at the Coffeehouse
- Normxxx
- Dick_Y
- Dick_Y
- allancoleman
- allancoleman
- Dick_Y
- allancoleman
- bob90245
- Kirk
- allancoleman
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» Normxxx - Re: Re: Conclusion - Actually a question from a new memb
In response to Re: Conclusion - Actually a question from a new memb posted by allancoleman:Which is why I like STS. It doesn't always work (as in 2003), but it is excrutiatingly simple and has racked up a 3:1 advantage in 55 years over the SPX, including the last eight years and 2003. With taxes, etc., it may not do that much better than B&H-- but it sure lets you sleep at night!
For more about STS, see the "Seasons in the Sun" and "Sy Harding" threads.
The content of this message is not to be construed as constituting market or investment advice. It is intended for educational purposes only. Individuals should consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.
-- posted by Normxxx
» Dick_Y - Re: Re: Conclusion - Actually a question from a new memb
In response to Re: Conclusion - Actually a question from a new memb posted by allancoleman:Allan:
Thank you for your response. Can you share some of your mkt. timing strategy? For ex., what told you to get out in mid_1999; what got you in last Fall and out March 4th/7th?
regards,
Soul_Searching Dick_Y
-- posted by Dick_Y
» Dick_Y - Re: Re: Re: Conclusion - Actually a question from a new memb
In response to Re: Re: Conclusion - Actually a question from a new memb posted by Normxxx:NormXXX:
Thanks for your response. My understanding of Sy's approach is that his signal is geared off the S&P 500. I wouldn't be comfortable putting my CM all in the S&P 500, whether it's for 1/2 a year or whatever. How do you use his STS for more than just the S&P500?
Regards,
Dick_Y
-- posted by Dick_Y
» allancoleman - Re: Conclusion - Actually a question from a new memb
In response to Re: Re: Conclusion - Actually a question from a new memb posted by Dick_Y: Hi Soul , 
i listen and subscribe to bob brinker ( i've beat bob's performance often and would cancel my subscription , but my wife likes bob's marketimer ? ) and was introduced to Sy Harding by Normxxx and not only read his book , but purchased many copies for my friends cause i got tired of them not returning my copy in a timely manner . .
i got out in mid 1999 cause i had some of the same concerns bob did about six months BEFORE bob gave his " voice in the wilderness " sell signal in 2000 . i generally beat bob in down markets and bob beats me in up markerts . i don't particularly follow anybody . my strategy is to " listen to everybody " , " follow nobody " , " read everything " i can get my hands on , especially books recommendated by Normxxx , including following suite101 every day i'm close to my computer and not selling real estate ( i am presently liquidating my personal real estate in the face of this buyer mania ) or surfing in hawaii in the winter . am a snow bird and spend half the year in alaska and half the year in hawaii . even though i've been retired over five years now , i've managed to live on real estate sales alone and have yet to take any distributions from my 401(k) , IRA , or ROTHs . and have also managed to convert large amounts in my ROTHs .
i've been lucky on a few calls and missed a few calls . don't really fret about missing calls cause i follow a " principal preservation " policy and have maintained positive returns going back well over 15 years now .
i am presently awaiting the return of Sy Harding " favorable season " or another opportunity like we had last fall . in the mean while i enjoy watching and learning here on suite101 . good luck in your own market timing in this secular bear market . i'm very well ahead and happy year to date - last i looked the indices were about even on the year .
-- posted by allancoleman
» allancoleman - Re: Conclusion - Actually a question from a new memb
In response to Re: Conclusion - Actually a question from a new memb posted by allancoleman:
Hi again Dick_Y ,
in rereading my previous post , i forgot to answer your question on why i got in last fall and out this spring :
i got in last fall based on Sy Harding's call and bob brinker's buy signal . Sy gave his buy signal at the beginning of his " favorable season " the end of last october . and bob had a buy signal below S & P 1100 all through last summer . i switched from less than 9% stock market asset allocation to more than 90% stock market asset allocation AFTER i verified the election returns the beginning of november . i had my best year last year since i in 2000 .
i lost over ( - $75k ) the first three weeks in january of this year and relooked at the fundamentals of the market and didn't panic . however , when the market reached highs march 4th / 7th and i was over $25k ahead in the stock market at that time ( means i had to earn over $100k in order to make up for the loss and bank some real returns ) , i returned to a stock asset allocation of 9% , where i sit now . presently sitting with a " real " year to date return ( counting my living expenses ) , counting real estate sales and assets ( using a conservative tax assessment for valuation ) of almost $100k . for that march decision i used Taleb's " black swan " theory and Sy's " common sense " theory and figured the risk wasn't worth staying in the market .
Taleb is another author i was introduced to by Normxxx and Taleb looks for " black swans " in the usual market noise for determining risk . basicly when you see one black swan ( risks ) among all the white swans on the lake , then it usually means there are others . and , of course , if you see more than one black swan , the risks raise .
i agree with all those who argue that market timing can't be done . but i can't imagine investing my critical mass any other way than what i've done in the past . just remember what Normxxx says , that the winner in this secular bear market is the investor " who losses the least " . as long as my " real " returns , counting my living expenses , stays positive year over year - even by one dollar - i'm a happy camper .
i am fortunate that i only need less than 3% of my critical mass to live very well ( i follow Dave Ramsey's religion of zero debts ) , and earn anywhere from the +8% i earned last year on down . my adverage double is less than 7 years going back to before 1991 . and i'm presently on track to continue that performance .
good luck on your own " random walk " down wall street . keep in mind that Benoit Mandelbrot thinks that most of the investing strategies used today DO NOT account for the true market risk .
-- posted by allancoleman
» Dick_Y - Re: Re: Conclusion - Actually a question from a new memb
In response to Re: Conclusion - Actually a question from a new memb posted by allancoleman:Thanks again, Allan:
Ed Easterling has a really good book out, called "Unexpected Returns - Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles" that I'm re-reading. I think you would really enjoy it, if you haven't read it already. He makes the same point that the market is really more volatile and "dangerous" than people realize.
Regards,
Dick_Y
-- posted by Dick_Y
» allancoleman - Re: Conclusion - Actually a question from a new memb
In response to Re: Re: Conclusion - Actually a question from a new memb posted by Dick_Y:appreciate the book tip Dick ( as Normxx will tell ya , i'm a sucker for a good book ) , but Normxxx & Bill Mauldin ( Bull's Eye Investing - another good secular market book ) beat you to Ed's book recommendation that i just finished and am holding for a friend to start reading as soon as he returns from king salmon fishing on the Kenai Penisula . i'm enroute myself to Homer tomorrow to work on real estate for sale in future years .
learned the definition between " real " returns and " relative " returns in Ed's book . i'm a real fan of real returns and calculate all my returns daily / monthly / quarterly / and yearly by actual numbers instead of reported returns put out by mutual fund managers .
several years ago i actually changed my portfolio spreadsheet performance / returns to reflect my real estate assets and living expenses too so as to be more accurate .
Benoit Mandelbrot ( The (Mis)Behavior of Markets ) using the math and logic of fractal geometry also make the arguement of more risks than most investment strategies want to aknowledge . his book isn't about secular markets or how to make money , but as he says , how to keep from losing money in the market by calculating risks better .
you'll have to ask Normxxx to give you a list of his recommended books , with a brief description and links to purchase from suite101's book store .
-- posted by allancoleman
» bob90245 - Ahem. I hate to interrupt, but . . .
I want to remind allancoleman, Dick_Y and others that this message board is for the discussion of the "Retire at the Coffeehouse" strategy. There are plenty of other boards to discuss other investing strategies and the current topic of books on investing. So please take your discussion there if you wish to continue that discussion.
Thank you
bob90245
Moderator of the "Retire at the Coffeehouse" message board
-- posted by bob90245
» Kirk - Re: Re: Re: Conclusion - Actually a question from a new member
.In response to Re: Re: Conclusion - Actually a question from a new member posted by Dick_Y:
Welcome to the group!
To be honest, the reason I've been thinking of ETF's is my concern that I believe we're in a Secular bear market, and I wanted to be able to "get out" to save my CM if necessary. It goes against the grain, I know, of Buy-and-Hold and rebalance; but I have been thinking it would be wise to be able to set stop-limits (i.e., with ETF's.)
I agree with Bob that you should only attempt to market time with the “Explore” part of your “core and Explore” portfolio.
Sometimes I think the biggest risk people put their critical mass to is the belief they can make major market moves to improve where they are.
Remember that a properly allocated portfolio has inflation protection. Also I’ve read that many here jumped out successfully in 1999 or 2000 but failed to get back in when the market bottomed in 2002. By missing the gains between October 2002 and December 31, 2003 you might have to make half a dozen FUTURE CORRECT market timing ins and outs to make up for that fantastic period. FWIW, my newsletter portfolio gained 77% in 2003 and my actual personal portfolio (equities and fixed income but not real estate) made 65%. Sure I gave 4% of the newsletter back in 2004 but you are still looking at huge gains.
I guess my point is you really never know when you get the great gains. Different asset allocations have gains at different times and people have a tendency to chase what has been working. Value has been a HUGE winner these past five years so you notice many of the favorite strategies, such as Bob’s Slice and Dice, are over weight value and under weight growth just as most were over weight growth in late 1999.
A pretty decent strategy for asset allocation I’ve heard is one third in each fixed income, equities and real estate not counting what you need to live in.
Thanks for stimulating the discussion again with fresh ideas.
As of 6/15/2005 since 12/31/98
Total Return Annualized
My newsletter portfolio is up 153.7% 15.5%
While they S&P500 is only up 7.2% 1.1%
and the Nasdaq Composite is down (5.4%) (0.8%)
and Warren Buffett's BRKA is up 19.4% 2.8%
-- posted by Kirk
» allancoleman - Re: Ahem. I hate to interrupt, but . . .
In response to Ahem. I hate to interrupt, but . . . posted by bob90245:
sorry bob .
-- posted by allancoleman
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