Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site 59,820+

Top 981. Jan 25, 2006 6:08 PM

» pete2214 - Re: Re: Bob Brinker was on two weeks ago

In response to Re: Bob Brinker was on two weeks ago posted by allancoleman:

Allan,
I am aware that you got out last december. Came close to following you however was not brave enough. I am 85% in equities right now. My janus funds are coming back too. If anyone is interested that orion fund is great. 1240 to 1250 hey if it remains in that trading range and not pass that sure but what do I know? This market is making me nervous. I am waiting on that bernake guy to see what he is going to do. I am sure even that is factored in the market. I don't see anything driving this market forward. It just goes back and forth on that trading range.

-- posted by pete2214

Top 982. Jan 25, 2006 6:26 PM

» allancoleman - Re: Bob Brinker was on two weeks ago

In response to Re: Re: Bob Brinker was on two weeks ago posted by pete2214:

pete ,

glad to hear Janus is gainng favor again . bob brinker sure got alot of calls on the decline of those funds after his ' voice in the wilderness ' sell signal of 2000 . and you're right to wait until the ' knife stops falling ' before before deciding to buy further into this market . i , too , am nervous about this market . especially when knowledgeable people like Norm3x are calling for a bad february / march and a flat market until later this fall . and as ole bob would say , " we'll all know in the fullness of time " .

your comment about 'that bermake guy ' is interesting cause i'm placing fairly big bets right now in the fixed income arena by getting my Roth money transferred to Vanguard and predicting that interest rates will keep raising and the Vanguard GNMA fund n.a.v. will drop below $10.00 a share for a ' no brainer ' buy later . just confirmed that my ' Gateway ' fund sold out tonite in my Schwab Roth account . have another day to confirm a buy into Schwab's SWVXX money market fund before i call Vanguard friday to begin their side of this Roth to Roth transfer . their Prime money market is paying over 4% right now . not a bad place to ' park ' taxfree Roth money without risk .

-- posted by allancoleman

Top 983. Jan 25, 2006 6:40 PM

» Wright100 - Re: Re: Re: Re: What Secular Bear Market?

In response to Re: Re: Re: What Secular Bear Market? posted by fasteddy707:

Fast Eddy why are you trying to pull a fast one to push Bob Brinker's newsletter on the unsuspecting public? Why mislead people?

You playing fast and loose with the truth said, ::and to be fair it was mentioned as only a trade for people who have the tollerance to take risk, about 8% depending. He realized it was a mistake to mention trades on the radio and for those who might not follow the guidelines he specified. I was a subscriber and still have the issue in which he published those guidelines::

It's simply untrue and I would ask you again why come here and mislead? Here is exactly what that bulletin said.

From Bob Brinker Oct. 2000.

Marketimer is projecting a significant countertrend rally which is expected to be led by the Nasdaq 100 index. We expect this rally to persist over a period of approxiamately 2 to 4 months, and to generate Nasdaq gains in excess of 20% from the vicinity of the recently established Nasdaq closing low point.

We view this projected Nasdaq rally as a significant trading opportunity for Marketimer subscribers seeking potential short term capital gains. Our clear vehicle of choice for this opportunity is the Nasdaq 100, which is traded on the American Stock Exchanged under the ticker symbol QQQ.

We recommend Marketimer subscribers with aggressive objectives invest 30% to 50% of existing CASH RESERVES in the QQQQ shares in order to exploit this opportunity. Also we recommend subscribers with conservative investment objectives invest 20% to 30% of CASH RESERVES in the QQQ shares in order to take advantage of this opportunity.

-- posted by Wright100

Top 984. Jan 25, 2006 7:55 PM

» honeyoneohone - Wrong, Mr Fasteddy707

In response to Re: Re: Re: What Secular Bear Market? posted by fasteddy707:

.
Fasteddy707 said: "He admitted many times the call on the qqq's was a mistake..."

With all due respect, this statement is simply not true. Brinker only "admitted" that the QQQ's were a mistake ONE time on the air.

His exact words were: "WE WERE WRONG."

You mention using libraries to learn. Did you know that shortly after the QQQ disaster Brinker stopped allowing libraries to subscribe to his newsletter? And actually requested that they be removed from some libraries, along with the QQQ "Act Immediately" Bulletin that had been sent to subscribers.

If you are interested in learning more about Brinker's cover-ups and his actual market-timing record, you are invited to visit, "Honey's Brinker Beehive."

-- posted by honeyoneohone

Top 985. Jan 25, 2006 11:29 PM

» fasteddy707 - Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: What Secular Bear Market?

In response to Re: Re: Re: Re: What Secular Bear Market? posted by Wright100:

Wright 100: Why do you assume I am "pushing "Bob Brinker's newsletter ? I never said anything about that. I guess the question regarding the possible damage done to the unsuspecting victims of Bob's advice depends on what you consider cash reserves to be. If you are a conservative investor and have a 50/50% asset allocation of stocks vs. fixed income for example. And you invested 20% of your 50% into the Nasdaq, you would have a 10% position. A 30% position would give you a 15% position in the qqq's. I don't think anyone would lose their shirt or be jumping out the window for this even if the qqq's lost an additional 50%. For they would still only have a real loss of the qqq's at the very bottom of only 5 to 7.5%. If they, however, took the total cash reserves as the figure to multiply the 20 to 30 percent the total cash reserve would equal 82.5%, because you moved 65%x 50%=32.5%+ the original 50%cash/fixed income. Then 20%x 82.5%=16.5% and 82.5%x30%=24.75%. So a 50% loss on 16.5% would be a loss at the bottom of 8%+ and 12%+. Still nothing worth committing suicide over , even at the bottom in oct 02. Of , course most people didn't follow the recommendations correctly and put far far more than either of these calculation methods. And many lost their shirts. Well, I read that same newsletter bulletin and I kept my shirt on and ignored the advice. I am no Bob Brinker robot and I would never blame anyone for following a recommendation or advice. I learn to think for myself and take some responsibility in Life. Brinker admitted the call was a bad one. What more do you guys expect him to do ? It seems to me that if a person's asset allocation is a 50/50 then the former is the # you use for calculations. Why else would you become more aggressive in a secular bear market after a fall has already taken place ? I think he realized that short term market trades were not appropriate for the newsletter and were subject to too much confusion and risk for most casual listeners on the radio. I am sure you guys will say he is only partaking in a cover-up, and seeks to hide his errant call. This is really pettifoggery guys. You don't have to criticize someone else to promote your own ideas. This forum only exists cause Brinker is the one with an excellent track record(see Mark Hulbert) at cbsmarketwatch.com. I only wish my auto mechanic or plumber or waiter made as few errors as Brinker has made. I give credit where credit is due. And Bob deserves a lot of credit. I have read over 100 books on and off the recommended reading list the last 7 years and along with Bob's help have made it to critical mass. But I am too young to retire and like working for now. Bob tells people to empower themselves through knowledge and reading. I don't hear ANY of the other pundits recommending books other than those they write themselves. He even has people on the show he doesn't agree with like Ravi Batra, yet he treated him with respect and dignity while asking him poignant questions about his past mistakes and controversial ideas. Brinker promotes diversity of ideas. This is priceless !!!

-- posted by fasteddy707

Top 986. Jan 26, 2006 3:35 AM

» Wright100 - CBS MARKETWATCH SAYS BET ONLY WHAT YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE ON BOB

In response to Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: What Secular Bear Market? posted by fasteddy707:

You seem to persist in your fast typing to make people trust the fast Bob Brinker. You mentioned CBSmarketwatch. Here's an article by CBS market watch in which they say the primary thing to take away from this is to:

"3. Do not, repeat -- NOT -- gamble the rent money, much less the retirement money, on any market timer's recommendations. Only speculate with money you can afford to lose."

The point is to only follow guys like Bob with money you would take to the bingo parlor. Marketiming schemes are seriously dangerous as Bob taught his subscribers in the gamble he is now hiding.

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- I asked for it and I got it. An extraordinary number of e-mails denouncing my August 15 column on Marketimer's Bob Brinker, either for being too hard on Brinker, or for not being hard enough.

Sigh.

(Read my previous column on Brinker.)

Interestingly, about half were from Brinker backers. That's unusual. Generally, people only write when they're mad. Both sides in this fierce fight accuse the other of mass e-mailing under fake names. Maybe they're both right -- although if so, they're individualizing cleverly.

Some Brinker backers mounted articulate defenses of his disastrous QQQ trade in 2000, for example arguing that he made it clear it was a speculation. But one critic has actually posted Brinker's famous bulletin on the Web. It does make chilling reading for a stock that went from above 80 to a recent 25.75.

Another critic sent this distressing note:

"I have never written anyone on this topic before but your article spurred me to write back to you. I retired early in the first half of 2000. I had been following [Brinker's] advice based on his excellent track record and comments he made during a personal appearance in Rochester NY in the late 1990s.

"Shortly after I retired I got Bob's bulletin to put up to half my stock market funds into QQQ 'immediately.' I followed Bob's advice and it has ruined what should have been a wonderful retirement for me and my wife. We bought in at 82. What REALLY is unforgivable is that Brinker had NO EXIT STRATEGY for this horrendous trade. Even today he is still telling us to hold the QQQ (even though down 75 percent). Does he realize how many lives he's ruined?"

To be fair, another correspondent says Brinker saved his retirement -- by getting him out of the market in 2000. But still...

All of which leads me to four observations:

1. Much of the Brinker brouhaha stems from things he's said on his ABC radio show or in the commentary section of his letter. Or allegedly said -- there's often total disagreement among my correspondents.

Perhaps because of this, there's now a letter and a Web site, Begininvesting.com, devoted to monitoring Brinker's radio show.

This of course underlines the wisdom of Mark Hulbert's decision to stick to monitoring Brinker's model portfolios. It was because Hulbert caught the fact that QQQ had not been put in Brinker's model portfolio published in the letter subsequent to the Special Alert that he sold it out, and didn't take any more loss. Quite obviously, most readers and listeners are not so systematic.

2. But Brinker must realize his readers and listeners are not so systematic. In fact, notwithstanding the fine record of his model portfolios by Mark Hulbert's count, Brinker's behavior in this whole affair does seem odd. There's bitter disagreement about whether he provided the follow-up advice he promised. But what kind of a "counter-trend rally" is it that he's still holding QQQ for (outside his model portfolio, of course) after two years?

3. Do not, repeat -- NOT -- gamble the rent money, much less the retirement money, on any market timer's recommendations. Only speculate with money you can afford to lose.

4. If there are many more stories like my poor friend from Rochester, we're going to see massive re-regulation of the financial markets -- a repeat of the "

So you can see why Bob needs guys like Fast Eddy to pump for him and try to hide the facts just like Bob tries to hide this call that has never been closed out.

-- posted by Wright100

Top 987. Jan 26, 2006 7:47 AM

» retiredinprescot - Re: CBS MARKETWATCH SAYS BET ONLY WHAT YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE ON

In response to CBS MARKETWATCH SAYS BET ONLY WHAT YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE ON BOB posted by Wright100:

Wright100,
I am the person that Peter Brimelow was talking about in his CBS Marketwatch column " I retired early in the first half of 2000. I had been following [Brinker's] advice based on his excellent track record and comments he made during a personal appearance in Rochester NY in the late 1990s."
Just so it is crystal clear, I will tell all of you that after Bob's lecture and infomercial in Rochester, NY he took questions from the audience and then stayed to talk "one on one" with some of us about retirement. BOB told me very clearly that many many retirees used his newsletter as the basis for their retirement investing. Thus, when I subscribed and got the "invest immediately" bulletin, I naturally followed the advice I WAS PAYING FOR.
Am I still pissed? YOU BETCHA. My problem with Bob ISN'T the fact that he made a poor recommendation, it is the fact that he left ALL OF US HANGING month after month after month as the QQQs dropped and dropped. He clearly never had an exit stategy and he obviously didn't care about all of his subscribers who followed him over the cliff. His biggest objective was to bury the call. I tried for months to get in touch with Bob for some explanation of what to do but his staff responded by CANCELING MY NEWSLETTER SUBSCRIPTION.
This is how your wonderful Bob Brinker treats people!

-- posted by retiredinprescot

Top 988. Jan 26, 2006 3:21 PM

» iamacamera - Re: Re: CBS MARKETWATCH SAYS BET ONLY WHAT YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOS

In response to Re: CBS MARKETWATCH SAYS BET ONLY WHAT YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE ON posted by retiredinprescot:

"I am the person that Peter Brimelow was talking about in his CBS Marketwatch column"

Boy, that's a true conversation stopper.
I sincerely sympathise with you - I, too lost a lot of $ - How has your retirement worked out since the debacle?
Don't let bad thoughts spoil your the last third of your life.

-- posted by iamacamera

Top 989. Jan 26, 2006 3:29 PM

» retiredinprescot - Re: Re: Re: CBS MARKETWATCH SAYS BET ONLY WHAT YOU CAN AFFORD TO

In response to Re: Re: CBS MARKETWATCH SAYS BET ONLY WHAT YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOS posted by iamacamera:

iamacamera wrote "I sincerely sympathise with you - I, too lost a lot of $". I think we both have a lot of company in that QQQ trade loss.
However, I have no regrets about retiring when I did in 2000. I downsized my lifestyle and we've worked to make back some of the money we lost by listening to Brinker. I still get a bit steamed at Brinker when I have to pass up a great trip I want to take but I have to admit I did learn a valuable lesson from the whole debacle.

-- posted by retiredinprescot