Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site 59,820+

» dukeandduke - Re: Re: Bob Brinker was on two weeks ago

In response to Re: Bob Brinker was on two weeks ago posted by allancoleman:

I look over hear every so often. Bob's thoughts are just one of several factors I consider for investing. People need to realize they are responsible for their own money. Nobody has more of an interest in your investments than you and your family. When people call Bob to thank him for his calls / newsletter he says no need to thank him as YOU the caller made the ultimate decision.

I feel bad for people who speculated on QQQ and don't want to rub it in but if you speculated (or gambled in more blunt terms) on the overvalued hot potato you should take it as a lesson neer to risk a significant portion of your investments to gamble. QQQ is not investing - it is gambling.

I am more of a value & contrarian investor - I look to see what appears to be undervalued. It also makes sense to not jump in with the herd (unless you are monitoring your investments very closely) as the tide turns quickly.

I went out of the market last week. I am looking to put the proceeds in short term debt to grab the 4% or so on the table and wait for better opportunities. I had most of my money in International ETFs (EAFE & Emerging Markets) but they have run up huge gains and I see a cool down period. If the US goes into a recession or slowdown, the entire world will be hurting.

I expect Bob to get out of the market sometime during the first half of the year. If he does great. If not and I miss out on possible gains that is ok as well - it was my decision after weighing all the factors.

-- posted by dukeandduke

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» dukeandduke - Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Bob Brinker was on two weeks ago

In response to Re: Re: Re: Re: Bob Brinker was on two weeks ago posted by SteveT:

I have listened to the show for over 10 years but never purchased his newsletter or went on his website. I am not going to defend Bob (or attack him) for issues I have no knowledge on - just wanted a further elaboration which you laid out in what may be a fair presentation of the fact (I'll take your word for it).

I think the best way to view Bob's show is to consider his "major market moves". He has only had two since I have listened. He was "fully invested" through January 2000 and then pulled out of the market until March 2003.

If people switched those two times they would be ahead of all but the top few percent of investors. It is sad that people who actually pay $185 / year have performed worse than if you invested in two index / ETF funds (stock market until 1/00 then GNMA though 3/03 than stock market again).

I use Bob as one reference point. He rarely mentions International Funds or says to invest only a small portion since multinationals are exposed to international markets but I don't agree with that.

I am no market genius by any means - I have made my share of mistakes. I have bought too much of a % of my worth in a few stock and have been burnt. Sometimes I pulled out of the market too early or stayed in too late.

I am ahead of the S & P 500 during my investing timeframe (since the mid 1990s). I don't know how much is the work I spend on it and how much is luck / good fortune - probably a little of both.

My main advice is YOU alone are responsible for your investment decisions. Use Bob's on the air advice as one of several reference points. Do not pay Bob or anyone else to make decisions for you.

If you are ill prepared or do not want to bother keeping up with / learning about investments split your money into 1/3s (US Stock Index, US Intermediate Bond Index and International Stock p Emerging Markets and EFAE) and just add money regularly and you should be ok.

For most people the returns on their investments ARE NOT as important on personal financial decisions they make. Regularly saving, paying off debt including your mortgage, having an emergency fund. If the only debt you carry is mortgage (hopefully a 15 year fixed) and you save 10 - 15% of your income, you will be ahead of most people.

Just my $0.02.

-- posted by dukeandduke

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» oldtown4 - Re: Re: Re: Bob Brinker was on two weeks ago

In response to Re: Re: Bob Brinker was on two weeks ago posted by dukeandduke:

""I am looking to put the proceeds in short term debt to grab the 4% or so on the table and wait for better opportunities. I had most of my money in International ETFs (EAFE & Emerging Markets) but they have run up huge gains and I see a cool down period.""

4% is looking good to me...espec. considering below, from MarketFn.com, very interesting perspective.

may not be such a good idea to blindly fire off a bunch of buy orders immediately following the Fed’s final rate hike.

Looking at data going back to 1920, in the twelve months leading up to the Fed’s last rate hike (i.e the period of time including the final hikes) the DJIA has actually experienced gains averaging almost 5%. In fact, during the month or so leading up to the last rate increase, stocks generally experience a furious rally as the market discounts the end to the Fed’s campaign.

And in comparing history to the current market, this has certainly been the case this time around, as stocks have rallied in anticipation of the Fed calling it a day.

But then a funny thing tends to happen on the way to the celebration of the actual event. In typical frustrating fashion, on average, stocks actually take a pretty substantial dive in the month prior to the last hike.

From there, history shows us that the twelve months after the final hike are a bit of a bust. From the high water mark before the last rate hike, the Dow sees a decline which averages about -10.3%. Ouch.

-- posted by oldtown4

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» JackSwanson - Stinker's Sunday Show

I recorded MoneyTalk on Sunday, and I played it back today. I listened to about half of it and counted three times where Boob boasted about his year 2000 "voice in the wilderness" all to get out of the market.

-- posted by JackSwanson

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» allancoleman - Re: newbie to BOB B

In response to Re: Re: newbie to BOB B posted by pbradford6:

no six , i am NOT ready to buy the Vanguard GNMA fund above my $10.00 a share target price . the admiral shares in that fund cost 13 basis points , almost half again lower than the investor class shares , and pay a higher dividend than the investor share class and therefore are a ' no brainer ' for me . but i figure with Vanguard's prime money market presenly paying over 4% , and likely to go higher with future fed increases , i can wait for my target price later .

for me , the important thing because of IRS restrictons on Roth tranfers , i'm better off making my move now rather than later . ( see my post on the ' Roth conversion ' forum )

-- posted by allancoleman

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» bloomer20 - Re: Re: newbie to BOB B

Thanks for the time and input...After stewing on this for a bit, I came up with most of the same answers, although when I checked the cost of staying with T.RowePrice over Vanguard, and checking the mgt fees head to head... Vanguard does make more sence. usually by about 1/2 % or so.
and some years that 1/2% means alot.

I think I'll just use Bob as an idicator. mabe he'll help me stay in longer than I normally would. I usually take the money and run.
thanks again
bloomer

-- posted by bloomer20

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» SteveT - Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Bob Brinker was on two weeks ago

In response to Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Bob Brinker was on two weeks ago posted by dukeandduke:

dukeandduke, you and I are much alike. I don’t think anyone needs bob brinker.

Investing a third each in US, International, and bonds is a pretty easy no fuss no muss plan. I am sure most people would be better off doing that vs. dealing with a shark broker.

I agree with you too about debt, saving, and have a decent emergency fund. I know far to many people that have gotten into the habit of running to a bank or credit union to borrow at the drop of a hat. I talked to one just yesterday and asked them how much simpler their life would be if they had no payments to meet monthly. I wonder if folks that have their financial house in order are by default more astute investors? Maybe we should start a “Living below your means” discussion thread? Would you be willing to share your wisdom with the community?

BTW here is another $0.02. Pretty good you doubled your money in one day!

-- posted by SteveT

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» fasteddy707 - Re: Re: Re: Re: Bob Brinker was on two weeks ago

In response to Re: Re: Re: Bob Brinker was on two weeks ago posted by oldtown4:

Interesting research oldtown. I guess this correlates with Martin Pring's philosophy. He says we are in stage 5 now and that the risks are growing in the equity markets. But his is a cyclical long term approach to the market. Cycles do repeat , but not always the same way in terms of timing. Time will tell if Brinker's current bullish position is a correct one. I am about 40% in stocks and the rest in bonds and cash. For my equity positions I have chosen 6 index funds,7 including a Reit index for retirement accounts, and I don't try to guess which sector or market category will outperform. I weight them equally. This is similar to the strategy outlined by Paul Merriman at Merriman capital. I use Vanguard's 1. Value index, 2. Growth index. 3. Mid cap index 4. Emerging market's index, 5. Tax managed international(which is an index), 6. Tax managed small cap(also an index).
At this point we don't really know when the Fed is going to stop the increases. I don't think the market has fully discounted the end of the tightening yet ! The Fed keeps talking about the price of oil filtering into the general economic # s. Brinker's view is oil is a tax, which I agree with. But when oil and the governments outrageous spending are combined together it makes me think that Inflation is the most likely solution to the USA's debt problems and our citizen's debt also. It is so politcally unpopular to have deflation/depression that the most likely outlook over the long term seems more inflation, and a stagnent economy. Tips should do well in such an environment.

-- posted by fasteddy707

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» allancoleman - Re: newbie to BOB B

In response to Re: Re: newbie to BOB B posted by bloomer20:

hello again bloomer20 ,

i tend to use bob brinker as just one of my indicators too . agree with your analysis that Vanguard is the ' low cost ' leader in mutual funds , although Fidelity is making strides in lowering their fees lately too .

and bob generally has kept me in longer than my ' bearish ' nature would have allowed me . i tend to error on the ' don't risk your critical mass ' advice that bob gives .

and definitely agree with your ' take the money and run ' as i've turned down my company pension offer upon separation and haven't lost anything yet . .

-- posted by allancoleman

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» allancoleman - Re: Bob Brinker was on two weeks ago

In response to Re: Re: Bob Brinker was on two weeks ago posted by dukeandduke:

dukeandduke ,

you and I are pretty much in agreement with every single item you've mentioned in your post . hope you continue to post here often . .

pretty much made my first move out of the market in mid - december and looking to get further out this month . and if i miss a rally , there'll be another later i'm sure .

-- posted by allancoleman

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