Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site 59,820+

Top 949. Jan 22, 2006 2:53 PM

» AL_W - Re: Re: Bob's on again

In response to Re: Bob's on again posted by allancoleman:

Speaking of the weather Allan, it's an absolutely wonderful sunny day here in the SF Bay Area. The temp is in the high 50's, but feels like 65 in the sun. I love days like this.

-- posted by AL_W

Top 950. Jan 22, 2006 3:12 PM

» allancoleman - Re: Bob's on again

In response to Re: Re: Bob's on again posted by AL_W:

hello AL_W ,

speaking of the weather while i'm listening to bob brinker's program , my weather here in Anchorage is presently just above zero with below zero weather expected next week . Fairbanks , alitle north of me , just came through minus 30 / 40 below zero weather last week and more expected next week . and , of course , both locations with plenty of snow .

and Kailua - Kona , where i will be this date next month is over 80 degrees and i'm sure the winter swells are providing really big waves at my beloved White Sands beach . can't wait to ' get it wet ' and return to surfing again .

and i too love days like this because i'm alive , warm and well in my condo in Alaska and will be live , warm and well in Hawaii soon too . smile .

-- posted by allancoleman

Top 951. Jan 22, 2006 4:26 PM

» pete2214 - Re: Re: How 'bout that market?

In response to Re: How 'bout that market? posted by Kirk:

If he is on, I think he’ll start out with a tribute to Allan Greenspan that turns in to a bash-fest before his final meeting as chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Kirk, you win the prize this week. Great prediction.

He did however, cover a great topic on the 3 car manufacturers (gm, ford, chrysler). I also don't understand why ford plays this game on the new ford mustang. In november of last year, I was negotiating a convertible gt at a dealership offering it at $31000 but they wanted 35000 with custom wheels. I told them to take the custom wheels off and put original wheels on it and offered them 31900 cash. No deal says the dealer. Well I don't need it that bad so there you go Ford lost out. Now the dealership has 20 in inventory of ford mustang gt since november. Now the most I will pay for the car is 28500 or lower. With the gas going up I am having a difficult time giving them my money.

-- posted by pete2214

Top 952. Jan 23, 2006 8:08 AM

» BoltonCT - Price Appreciation and bubbles

I added price appreciation to the market cash flow index model because market bubbles have a life of their own. A bubble appears when buyers become more influenced by the market trend than the fundamentals of stocks and the economy. How does that work? Well if the economy is growing historically at 3% for 10 years but stock prices are climbing at 8% per year we are in a bubble because the difference is fundamentally unsustainable. The buyers are then using the appreciation rate of 8% to make value based decisions instead of the PE and PEG. The analysts then try to make the fundamentals conform to reality by quoting the fundamentals based on one to four year earnings projections and on fanciful, creative, and imaginary business cases built on market share rather than earnings and cash flow. A trailing PE (current PE by sound valuation) of 30 would put the market value at 3.3% not 8%. Even a forward PE of 20 would only value the market at 5% not 8%. But 5% still puts the analysts in a position to say buy stocks as the best investment vs. many safer investments because stocks trump the rest.

At the height of a bubble buyers ignore all economic signs and attempts of the Fed to reduce “over exuberance.” For instance, today Bob Brinker says don’t worry, be happy because inflation is under control so the Fed won’t raise rates much further. But look and you will find that inflation today is slightly higher (about 3.5%) than in February 2000 (3.2%) when Brinker was conceiving his sell-a-little-signal and just before the Fed raised rates a full 1%. See: http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/C...

The stock market bubble did not pop due to anything that happened before or when Bob Brinker said to reduce equities holdings. Bob never predicted the 1% Fed rate hike that actually popped the bubble. In fact Bob Brinker was caught in 2000 and got his Qs pulled down to his ankles when the Fed popped the bubble.

No one can predict when a bubble will pop and we have been in a bubble since June 2005. I know that because that’s when fundamentals like market cash flow indices began to behave erratic and flashed sell signals until October when all but Japan’s were flashing sell signals and I lightened up. Bubbles destroy short sellers because they raise many stock prices to 5 to 10 times any rational valuation. We know that is true when the bubble pops and the stars and rockets drop 80% to 90%. Will Google drop that much? Look where AOL was in 2000 and what happened to AOL.

Therefore I added a price appreciation term to the market cash flow index. It is proportional to the perceived rate of price appreciation of each index. Since it is a psychological rather than a fundamental parameter its weighting is indeterminant. Therefore I just varied the weighting and let the data from the past 5 to 20 years give the optimum weighting for the price appreciation component. That moved the sell signals out to early January 2006 when I said (in Suite 101) that even if the first week of January is an up week I had a gut feeling the month of January will be down. Now I have a warmer feeling about the weighting being about right. Note: These buy and sell signals occur once or twice a year not at 4 to 6 year intervals as Brinker provides. That is why I alternate positions about twice a year.

Trending works during bubbles but you have to be careful when the bubble pops because you could buy in too soon. If the bubble is breaking now then this bubble will not catch trenders if they hold off for a confirming technical buy signal. Trenders would normally buy back 3% to 9% below the trend in the indices or stocks they trend. But this bear market we are in now is clearly ominous and trenders can see that and rely on a technical confirmation such as a point-figure chart.

The Fed is not going to stop raising rates until the stock market and the housing bubbles are ended regardless of what Bob Brinker or others think the fundamentals are saying. And again, Bob Brinker is deluding himself by pretending interest rates and inflation are better than when the last bubble was popped. Bob Brinker did not predict the 2000 market top. He hates Greenspan for the 1% interest rate hike because Greenspan pulled Brinker’s Q’s down exposing Brinker's timing mistake. The market would not have popped if it were not for that Fed action that was obviously totally unrelated to Bob’s timing indicators. Bob was not anticipating a secular bear market. He said lighten up and then started to go bullish again just as the market imploded. Bob was a polyanna until he lost 20% to 60% and then he becomes a bear and perhaps saves people the last 20% to 60% of the drop.

Politically, now is the time in the election cycle for the Fed to pop the bubble because the economy will then be neutral by election time. If they wait until next year the Republicans will lose the election because the economy will look like it is in shambles. Of course if Bush does not like the future Republican candidate he can do what Clinton did to Gore and pressure his appointee Fed chairman to delay the deflation of the bubbles.

-- posted by BoltonCT

Top 953. Jan 23, 2006 8:57 AM

» bbaddict - Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Bob Brinker was on two weeks ago

In response to Re: Re: Re: Re: Bob Brinker was on two weeks ago posted by SteveT:

(Re: UTEK) Did you also know he used an Internet alias on several message boards to pump it.

Wow. Can you prove that?

-- posted by bbaddict

Top 954. Jan 23, 2006 10:57 AM

» bloomer20 - newbie to BOB B

after following Bob for a year or so and reading posts on here on 101, I finally kicked out the $185.00 and bought into the newsletter. and after going into January letter and reading the actual build up of the portfolios I,II and III. I'm stuck with a few questions. All my existing retirement funds are in IRA's , either with Vanguard or T.Roweprice.
1. Bob recommends some no load funds outside my fund families. they may be no load on thier own, but if I have to go through a different site Vanguard) to purchase into say.. Meridian then am I not incurring fees from both fund groups. ?

2. would I be better off to try and find similar funds inside the accounts/fund families I already have?

3. after looking at Bob's returns for last year, I see I beat his portfolio I return by 2%, last year. should I run with the picks I have and just rely on Bob for the timing issue?

4.If you had both T.RowePrice and Vanguard accounts, Is it worth having two accounts? or for the no load advantage of Vanguard, is it worth putting all your eggs in one basket?

I realize this isn't a commentary on Bobs latest show, but rather how to go about following or implementing his advice.

whadayathink?

bloomer20

-- posted by bloomer20

http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...

Top 955. Jan 23, 2006 3:18 PM

» SteveT - Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Bob Brinker was on two weeks ago

In response to Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Bob Brinker was on two weeks ago posted by bbaddict:

Sure I can prove it. I do have one question for you bbaddict. If I prove it to your satisfaction will it cure your addiction? smile

I suggest you start by reading Della’s blogs. She preserved all the posts brinker made on SI under the alias Don Lane. After he was outed by one of his staunchest supporters he had the alias changed to mister topes. Why would he do that if it weren’t brinker? Also another strong supporter Richard Palm agrees Lane= brinker.

I would recommend you read all of each of the threads below for starters. After you’ve done that we can discuss it further. Don’t worry, take your time, the posts aren’t going anywhere.

One final thought. If it were not true don’t you think brinker would complain to Kirk and try to get Della’s blogs removed?

-- posted by SteveT

Top 956. Jan 23, 2006 4:10 PM

» allancoleman - Re: newbie to BOB B

In response to newbie to BOB B posted by bloomer20:

hello bloomer20 ,

welcome to our merry band .

bob brinker gets alot of these type calls on his weekly radio show . these are from people like yourself who have just received his newsletter and are asking for help in figuring out how to best follow bob's recommended potfolios and fund selections .

for the answer to your question number one ( 1. ) , you'll probably have to go to your present fund family and ask if you'll have to pay an additional charge or fees . with my Schwab account , i can sometimes get other family funds and NOT pay an additional charge / fee . and with other family mutual funds , sometimes i can get them by paying an additional charge / fee . and in some instances , like the Vanguard GNMA admiral class fund , it's NOT available to individual investors like ourselves .

answer to your question number two ( 2. ) is yes , you probably are just as well off to find funds inside your present mutual fund family . and sometimes bob says that : " to do the best you can " .

answer to your question number three ( 3. ) is interesting because i'm finding myself in your boat too : i'm presently beating bob brinker's portfolio recommendations . in my case , i've always been my own investment advisor , as bob brinker also recommends , so usually go my own way anyway .

answer to your question number three ( 3. ) is interesting too because i had two accounts : one with Schwab and one with Fidelity . i was going to transfer my Fidelity account to Schwab and consolidate them in one family until i ran into a problem obtaining the above mentioned Vanguard GNMA admiral class shares through Schwab and finding out there was no way they were going to let me have them in my Schwab account . and Fidelity said , "no problem " . so i decided to keep my Fidelity account . and since the amount of money i want to purchase the Vanguard GNMA admiral class shares is large enough ( around $650k ) , i'm also presently opening a Vanguard account to transfer my Schwab roth to Vanguard .

i guess the final determinations are really up to you . remember whatever you decide to do , that's it's your money in the end . and whatever you do , don't cry about it afterwards if you decide to follow someone else's recommendations and it doesn't work . we already have enough of those types here . smile .

-- posted by allancoleman

http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...

Top 957. Jan 23, 2006 4:52 PM

» honeyoneohone - Brinker=donlane/mistertopes: Beyond a Reasonable Doubt

In response to Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Bob Brinker was on two weeks ago posted by SteveT:

.
Steve, a woman's prerogative is to change her mind--especially for a friend, right? Since the old "prove it" saw has been brought up once again, I wanted to tell you that I will be "proving" it at Honey's Brinker Beehive.

But to answer your question: "One final thought. If it were not true don’t you think brinker would complain to Kirk and try to get Della’s blogs removed?"

It's happened before over other subjects--but never because of my "blogs!" Here is one occasion that Kirk tells about receiving complaints about something posted here. And as I recall, Brinker also complained about something that Jack Swanson said here and demanded that Kirk delete it.

Kirk wrote this:

Author: Kirk
Discussion: FULL!__Bob_Brinker_Free_Discussion_57,800 +USE_NEW_FORUM
Date: March 22, 2004 5:37 PM
Subject: Re: Bob Brinker Posted as Don Lane NO QUESTION
.
In response to message posted by Arcterus:

"You make a good case, but some things are not possible to prove with internet links.

Such as DonLane/MisterTopes giving us a "heads up" the day before Brinker would be off for the weekend. I was told by an affiliate that this information is not something they have because people won't pay the same for commercials if the star is not on.... This is HIGHLY CLASSIFIED information.

Some info via private email and private messages at SI I did not keep but I was asked to delete (censor) several things on this site on several occasions so "he" would keep posting on SI as Don Lane.

I think the most telling post is someone said something uncomplimentary to Bob Brinker Jr, whom we all called "Bob Jr." Don Lane showed up and just blasted the person and called his son "Bobby Junior" or "Junior" in quite a protective way. I am sure Will or Della has the quote. It was about the only time I remember seeing signs that Brinker actually had a heart and cared about someone other than himself...." (EC: Yes, I will be posting this exchange at the Beehive.)

-- posted by honeyoneohone