Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site 59,820+

Top 899. Jan 12, 2006 6:28 AM

» allancoleman - Re: Bob's Saturday show

In response to Bob's Saturday show posted by gabbai:

hello gabbai ,

i wouldn't use the phrase ' off to the races ' to describe bob's comments on the market . although bob is very bullish going forward . keep in mind that bob doesn't take into account market declines of less than 10% in his model .

i agree with jamesj24's opinion on the present market and feel there will be future buying opportunities below present market levels .

-- posted by allancoleman

Top 900. Jan 12, 2006 6:40 PM

» BoltonCT - Brinker gives the secular bull at least a few more months.

I got a look at BB's January newsletter. He expects one or two more FED rate increases and then a halt. I was surprised how low his 1yr performance was on all his portfolio's. They ranged from 5.3% to 6.9%. All our retirement funds did better. The worst one we had did 8.5%. The best was 22%. I was surprised he only has funds in his portfoli's. I would have expected that he would have a more aggressive one for kids like me that are under 85 yrs old.

His 10 yr portfolio performance ranged from 144% to 315% vs 138% he says for his reference market. I guess his timing matters every 3 or 4 years.

He says based on his current indicators and their rate of change he expects at least a few more months on the up side. He indicates that the growth in the real money supply is now anemic.

I like Bob Brinker in spite of what you 100 yr old critics say. I wonder what Ski-daddy thinks about BB? Does anybody know?

-- posted by BoltonCT

Top 901. Jan 12, 2006 9:15 PM

» allancoleman - Re: Brinker gives the secular bull at least a few more months.

In response to Brinker gives the secular bull at least a few more months. posted by BoltonCT:

interesting question BoltonCT on what Ski-daddy ( Jim Cramer ) thinks of BB ( Bob Brinker ) . as for bob's performance , usually i can beat him too in flat ( last year ? ) to down markets . bob usually beats me in really up years cause his beta's are generally higher than i like to run in my portfolio's .

i came in last year in my 401(k) , my main market timing investment vehcle , at 13.4% . my invested portfolio was at 10.57% last year and my total portfolio , counting real estate valued at conservative tax assessments , and my ' bucket number one ' living expenses , was at 9.259% .

i like bob too and think he does add value in my investment decisons . but , then i'm not attempting to blame him for holding Q's as they dropped from $80/$90 a share to $20/$40 a share . figure if an investor can't figure on when to dump that dog , they're beyond assistense from any source .

-- posted by allancoleman

Top 902. Jan 12, 2006 10:13 PM

» allancoleman - Re: Brinker gives the secular bull at least a few more month

In response to Re: Re: Brinker gives the secular bull at least a few more month posted by Kirk:

actually i think you do have to be ' smarter ' than any single investment advisor to be able to figure when their advice is good or bad . everybody isn't going to be able to be right all the time .

i count real estate in my own ' total ' portfolio because i've been living on just real estate sales and payng taxes on over half million in Roth conversions since i retired in 2000 . matter of fact , i converted over $100k this week alone for tax year 2006 . so real estate values have more meaning to me .

no , i don't use a Blackberry to post . happen to be using my wife's new HP 64bit AMD laptop i bought for her as my Gateway laptop is in the shop at my local Best Buy . just heard from them today that they would have to send my Gateway to America for a motherboard replacement . ? ? they said it could take two to four weeks . got confirmation of this time estimate not only from my local geek squad , but also from Gateway themselves . needless to say , it'll be my first sad and last Gateway . ran my old Compaq with 98SE for over five years without a hickup til finally the cooling fan quit and burned up my processor .

congradulations on your 2005 performance and providing us with a place ( suite101 ) to learn . i'm personally looking for a ' less than 10% ' correction to buy back into the market possibly this first quarter . ? ?

-- posted by allancoleman

Top 903. Jan 12, 2006 10:57 PM

» bbaddict - 2005 performance

I'll need to calculate my 2005 net return. But it's way skewed because I have a sizable portion in AAPL! (Far more than Bob's 4%) Go Steve!

-- posted by bbaddict

Top 904. Jan 12, 2006 11:23 PM

» permabear - Energy and gold

Besides real estate, energy and gold have been the big investment winners in the past five years (commodities a broader description). BB has clearly recommended callers to his radio show to avoid gold. He has more mixed views when it comes to energy from what I've heard.

-- posted by permabear

Top 905. Jan 14, 2006 6:17 AM

» SteveT - Re: Re: Brinker gives the secular bull at least a few more month

In response to Re: Brinker gives the secular bull at least a few more months. posted by allancoleman:

Congratulations allan. You obviously don’t need or heed bob brinker. Looks like your 2005 returns were around twice as good as his! So how does bob add value to your investment decisions?

allan, I believe you are on the right track concerning gurus. I like to think of them as a source for ideas. As a working stiff my time is in short supply so I use newsletters to do some of the research and tracking, freeing up more time for other pursuits.

I periodically evaluate various newsletters and depending on my appraisal of their abilities and integrity determines how much weight I give their opinions. Since this is a brinker forum I’ll give the group my opinion on how much weight I give bob’s opinions.

I rank bob brinker the lowest of any I’ve seen. His overall record of performance is average compared to buy and hold. If he can’t beat that, why go through all the contortions that trying to time the market involves? His mutual fund picks under perform. The questionable Montgomery funds pumping and UTEK undisclosed relationship gave him unfavorable integrity marks in my view. His off the books accounting of the QQQQ recommendation did nothing to correct this behavior. The trend of deceit and spin continues to this day.

Perhaps you’ve noticed the past two months I’ve posted my reverse engineered model updates and published them here before bob releases his newsletter. I am not saying those posts are 100% accurate or as well written as what bob publishes. I am trying to illustrate how simple and predictable bob’s model is. The majority of his newsletter is boilerplate. The “new” stuff is mostly recycled words and ideas.

Don’t get me wrong bob has done some good work with his radio show. He got me to believe I could be my own money manager and use No-load low cost index funds. Staying away from shark attacks is also good advice. As I see it the good he has done does not give him license to be deceitful and unethical for his financial gain. Maybe there is something about human nature that is attracted to controversy? Heck I’ve heard of elected officials getting caught red-handed two days before an election taking bribes and still getting a substantial percentage of the vote. For me bob has done some good but I just can’t get by the yuck factor.

-- posted by SteveT

Top 906. Jan 14, 2006 8:19 AM

» allancoleman - Re: Brinker gives the secular bull at least a few more month

In response to Re: Re: Brinker gives the secular bull at least a few more month posted by SteveT:

hello SteveT ,

although i don't use bob brinker's timng signals for my sole market timing decisions , i do find that bob's long term market timing signals have been very helpful to me . just as i find sy harding's timing signals helpful . and , in addition , i also use Normxxx , Kirk , DanG_6 ,and others here on suite101 for my final judgement call .

for myself , bob probably ranks as important as any other source i look at so , for myself again , i would disagree with your analysis that bob brinker ranks as the lowest . just a matter of opinion of course .

i also find the ' yuck ' factor exists with most gurus . especially Jim Cramer . but i like to listen to him too . especially his ' fundamental ' analysis when he's speaking in a normal tone of voice about the market and not screaming and throwing chairs across the room .

-- posted by allancoleman

Top 907. Jan 14, 2006 9:07 AM

» bbaddict - Re: Re: Brinker gives the secular bull at least a few more month

In response to Re: Brinker gives the secular bull at least a few more month posted by allancoleman:

What is fascinating to me is Bob's market timing. You have to admit (and Bob reminds us daily) that his buy call at S&P 800 was the market bottom TO THE DAY. His buy calls since have been very accurate as well, hitting hiccups in the S&P. His sell signal in 2000 was within some "noise" of the top. He rode the market right throught the Y2K BS that had everyone panicked, and darn near called the top (or one of the tops). Hypesters were predicting DOW 40000, but Bob called the top.

In the late 90s, when the market was way overvalued (in typical, historical sense), Bob kept riding it higher, and was right.

I was one who bought the QQQQ's on Bob's advice, and lost my shirt. I doubt you'll see Bob make any specific recomendations ever again.

You are spot-on about the spin, but his market calls are what keep me tuned in.

As you reverse engineer Bob's model, what components changed for him to call the bottom at S&P 800? He was monitoring something that made him say, "Wait....Waaaiiit....Waaaaiiittt...... NOW! Buy!"

-- posted by bbaddict