Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site 59,820+
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» BoltonCT - Re: Re: Re: Capran's 14% YTD return on his portfolio
In response to Re: Re: Capran's 14% YTD return on his portfolio posted by capran:I have been doing essentially what you do since midyear and have back calculated it to 1999. I did it because market bubbles grow disproportionate to the cash flows and valuations I compute and track.
I take it one step further and have it automatically computed with a green auto format color when it says buy and a red auto format color in the sell regions. I do it for every stock I own or analyze as well as for the Qs, DJI, NYSE, S&P NASDAQ and the Nikkei. It is very helpful but has two problems.
1) The more indices and stocks you follow the more different answers you get.
2) At market or stock turning points you better be quick to cover the error it makes
So I use it with other indicators like RSI, MACD, short squeeze, and my MCFI.
I find that at the end of a bear market and beginning of a bull market, classical valuation methods and cash flow analysis correlate well. But then when prices get inflated the rate of appreciation becomes the expectation of future appreciation or valuation. That results in a self-feeding unsustainable bubble. That is when trending methods like yours work best. When the bubble pops usually all classical validation methods have already been abandoned and the depreciation in prices is initially self feeding and unsustainable. trenders can get trounced then. Then gradually rational classical valuation methods work again.
-- posted by BoltonCT
» capran - Re: Re: Re: Re: Capran's 14% YTD return on his portfolio
In response to Re: Re: Re: Capran's 14% YTD return on his portfolio posted by BoltonCT:Hmm, that sounds interesting. Is that set up in an excell sheet to pop to a sell or buy color when it hits a certain point? Normxx, I think, talked about the turning points delimma, which in that transition in the MA makes it less stable. For a while I tried looking at a larger number of indexs and just felt overwhelmed, as I have a "real job", plus alot of regular stuff to do. I look at the market in the morning and again just before lunch at 1230, make my transaction at lunch time, and keep the running tally. And I went back 10 years on the two indexes I track to look for what appears to be standard deviations. I don't even look at my regular stock holdings except monthly, (altho I'm trying to cut that back to quarterly.) I do find it all interesting, and if there's a way to beat the market by a few points here and there, I figure I'm better off.
-- posted by capran
» JackSwanson - OPEN FOR NOMINATIONS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Email me at jackswanson00@yahoo.com for nominations for this years award. I'll give you a hint who I'm voting for...he does a radio show, and he's been pretty much bearish on told thru the entire gold bull market!!!!!-- posted by JackSwanson
» capran - Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Capran's 14% YTD return on his portfolio
In response to Re: Re: Re: Re: Capran's 14% YTD return on his portfolio posted by capran:Well, I decided to nibble a bit today. We're just about back to 1.5% above the moving average, so I have bought into the russell 2000 and the s&p with 20 % of my "market timing" money. I did pick up another penny Friday which put me just a tad over 14%. Fear vs greed. Today greed won out.
-- posted by capran
» BoltonCT - Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Capran's 14% YTD return on his portfolio
In response to Re: Re: Re: Re: Capran's 14% YTD return on his portfolio posted by capran:The conditional formating allows you to test the value of the cell and set color based on the cell value. Actually I use red, green and colorless for in between.
You can download twenty years of data to a spreadsheet from YAHOO in minutes. I am continuing to learn and to try to be more discipline and more generalized in my approaches. I try to learn without losing real money. I learned to avoid options that way. I learned that shorting is not all it is cracked up to be the hard way. I shorted for the first time last December. By May my accounts were up ranging from about 20% to 65% with the average up about 30%. My average then dropped to a low below 15% and now is again about 20% based on net transactions and current market value of the portfolios. My estimate of profit always includes the present value of the assets I am holding. My retirement funds are all in cash now and were sold near their highs. Now I am taking all the stock losses I can that make sense so that I cancel out as many of the transaction profits that I can before the end of the year.
Shorting excessively was not my only problem this year. I had been sucessfully averaging 6% profit on each stock trade. I tried to increase that to at least 20% thinking I could then hold longer. Those two changes in discipline really stressed me out and I even discovered what a short squeeze really is. It is not fun and it is like the illegal early practices of cornering the market. The people doing it sound like fools but they know how to move money and slaughter the shorts.
Following too many stocks or funds can be a problem too. I set up YAHOO portfolios for them and the indices I follow. That lets me scan all the charts in a sort period of time and down select those near their channel limits. Then I also time entry and exit by looking for an indication of a turning point using my cash flow calculations.
-- posted by BoltonCT
» capran - Re: support and resistance
In response to support and resistance posted by gabbai:This guy has posted a number of interesting graphs, some of which have had a discussion and posting of resistance and support, but its hit and miss.
http://www.stocktiming.com/Stock-Market-...
I bailed today on a short term trade. A while back this guy posted some interesting things on institutional investng as a ket to extending the rally. It seems that the s&p has made four runs at the resistance line and pulled back, so I figured I'd lock in another very small gain and wait for the new year.
-- posted by capran
» gadget767 - Re: support and resistance
In response to support and resistance posted by gabbai:You would probably do better posting this question over in the TA (Technical Analysis) forum. It depends on how fancy you want to get. Support can be just a low, or can be provided by other things like important moving averages.
One site that you might look at:
Enter "spy" in the box at upper left and hit go, a series of support and resistance levels will pop up.
Another:
http://charts3.barchart.com/procal.asp?s...
If you poke around on that last site you can find all kinds of stuff. Try clicking on the items in the "Technicals" list over on the left.
-- posted by gadget767
» allancoleman - Re: asset allocation
In response to asset allocation posted by gabbai:any book book from which you receive an education is worth the money . asset allocation is probably the single most determining factor in success in investing . and Kirk is right about it being more important than individual stock picking or market timing .
Burton G.Malkiel's book , " A Random Walk Down Wall Street " is good for the study of different asset allocations and investment methods as he covers alot of them in his book .
and when i'm close to a good book store , i've been known to spend whole mornings and / or afternoons reading their different books available until you find your self returning to the same book more than once . at that point , you've found yourself a good reference book to buy for your future study . or i've had excellent success in going with Normxxx's recommemdations in the past .
by the way , i set a new high in my investment portfolio at market close today . expect to change my asset allocation at some point between tomorrow and next thursday .
-- posted by allancoleman
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