Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site 59,820+

» allancoleman - Re: Brinker's sell call

In response to Brinker's sell call posted by 750a:

hello 750a ,

i was just looking at the MACD for the S & P 500 myself to determine how much more rally we might have left this year .

and we will mark you down as bob brinker pulling the plug by end of january . i'll have gotten out by then for sure and will be watching these threads / forums for further signs of what strategy to use next year and learning .

-- posted by allancoleman

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» cpa61 - Re: Re: Brinker's sell call

In response to Re: Brinker's sell call posted by allancoleman:

What does Mcad mean? History on it. What level is high low etc
Thanks for any imput

-- posted by cpa61

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» Normxxx - Re: Re: Re: Brinker's sell call

In response to Re: Re: Brinker's sell call posted by cpa61:

The correct term is MACD for Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator.

Whenever you come across any such term or phrase; just 'google' it to find a wealth of info about it!

-- posted by Normxxx

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» Normxxx - Re: Re: Brinker's sell call

In response to Re: Brinker's sell call posted by allancoleman:

Remember also, I have a 50:50 bet that the market folds by the last week of December!

(But I'll still wait for the market to move first, before I pull my longs and/or go short! I may hedge with some leaps, as I expect the market to go down in any case next year.)

P.S. Have you read John Mauldin's review of the GaveKal stuff? It's what I will present for explanation if the market goes up next year instead of down!

-- posted by Normxxx

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» allancoleman - Re: Brinker's sell call

In response to Re: Re: Brinker's sell call posted by Normxxx:

hi Normxxx ,

thanks for the help on the ' MACD ' question . and i also appreciate your market views on the last week in december . i'm not locked into holding until december 29th as i had intended when i made my move into the market october 21st .

and yes i did read GavelKal's stuff . but my experience last january was so bad , that i'm just going to get out and observe this next year . specially if my year to date performance this year holds up .

thanks to you guys here on suite101 making that performance possible too .

-- posted by allancoleman

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» JIMMY62 - Re: Brinker's sell call

In response to Brinker's sell call posted by 750a:

For the past 11 presidential election cycles there has been a market low during the off-presidnetial election year.

Bob has documented this in THE NEWSLETTER up until 2002. Then there was a bottom in early October 2004.

If Bob is going to get back in step with the stock market almanac and ID a GIFT HORSE at a bottm in 2006, he must end the cyclical bull rally.

I am inclined to agree with your January prediction.

-- posted by JIMMY62

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» bob90245 - Re: Re: Brinker's sell call

In response to Re: Brinker's sell call posted by JIMMY62:

I am inclined to agree with your January prediction.

Sounds reasonable to me. Buy the rumor, sell the news. Anticipating a strong Q4, investors will push up stocks into earnings season. Then once the "good news" gets reported in January conference calls and earnings press releases, investors will sell and lock in profits.

-- posted by bob90245

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» gabbai - Re: Re: Brinker's sell call

In response to Re: Brinker's sell call posted by allancoleman:

Allan:
Do you think it's time to get out or take money off the table? Three down days in a row on higher volume seems a little scary to me. I don't want to blow my year's performance.

Or, maybe we're taking a pause before going into S&P 1300's? What's your take?

-- posted by gabbai

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» allancoleman - Re: Brinker's sell call

In response to Re: Re: Brinker's sell call posted by gabbai:

hello gabbai ,

it's scary when i've actually got people asking me for my advice . . i , also , don't want to blow your performance this year .

but , for my money , i feel this is a pause before going to S & P 500 1280 and possibily beyond to the 1300's . for myself , i have a ' mental ' stop at 1245 / 1235 and a further value set at 1200 in case the bottom drops out . since i got in at 1180 , any value above that is fine with me . course , the size of my critical mass makes it much easier for me to stomach those decreases as they would all be less than 10% of my total portfolio .

the way i've heard it stated on many investment talk shows is to set a ' numerical ' value to your possible loss and ask yourself , " if i lost $xxx would i be upset " . and when you've reached that numerical value at which you would be upset , then pull the plug .

once i've made a decision on market timing for myself , i never second guess it and never kick myself later if the market continues up further . just mark it off to education and remember it the next time .

good luck . you're on the right web site ( suite101 ) to get plenty of input , which is important in these decisions .

-- posted by allancoleman

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» gabbai - Re: Re: Brinker's sell call

In response to Re: Brinker's sell call posted by allancoleman:

I reallocated a little bit today. Cut back from 75% to 70% equities.

-- posted by gabbai

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